Group 1: Corn Market Analysis - The long-term outlook for corn is a range-bound operation, with medium-term strategies suggesting buying on dips, while short-term auctions continue with prices seeking support [1] - Short-term auction transaction rates for imported corn are declining, and the premium is narrowing, indicating weak bullish expectations in the spot market [1] - Medium-term supply may tighten due to reduced imports and substitutes, but price increases are limited by narrowing price differentials and increased wheat substitution [1] - Long-term price limitations are expected from policy grain releases and wheat substitution, with a focus on import substitution and planting cost pricing [1] - Strategy suggests support levels for the 2509 contract at 2300 - 2320, with potential for wave trading on effective support [1] Group 2: Live Pig Market Analysis - The long-term outlook for live pigs is bearish, with medium-term expectations of a range-bound market and short-term rebounds facing resistance [1] - Short-term market conditions show both support and resistance, leading to price fluctuations [1] - Medium-term supply may increase due to a rise in new piglets and limited declines in slaughter weights, making price increases challenging [1] - Long-term production capacity is expected to be realized due to high breeding sow inventory and improved production efficiency [1] - Strategy indicates first resistance for the 2509 contract at 14400 - 14600 and second resistance at 14800 - 15000, with attention to 13800 resistance for the 2511 contract [1] Group 3: Egg Market Analysis - The egg price may confirm a phase of bottoming out, with futures trading based on basis logic [1] - Short-term supply remains stable, limiting downside potential and suggesting a confirmation of the bottom [1] - Medium-term expectations include a rebound in spot prices during the peak season in August-September, influenced by culling rates [1] - Long-term projections indicate a return to profitability for breeding in Q3, with potential supply pressures in Q4 leading to price declines [1] - Strategy suggests initial upward pressure on main contracts, with resistance levels for the 08 contract at 3600 - 3650 and support at 3400 - 3450, while the 09 contract faces resistance at 3700 - 3720 and support at 3500 - 3550 [1]

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【玉米、生猪、鸡蛋期货行情分析及策略建议】玉米期货方面，长线呈区间运行，中线适合低多思路。 短期进口玉米拍卖持续，成交率降低、溢价幅度缩小，现货市场看涨预期减弱，整体弱稳。中期进口谷 物缩量和替代减量，国内供给宽松格局或趋紧，价格重心偏强，但玉米价差收窄、小麦替代增加，上方 空间不宜乐观。长期政策粮源投放和小麦替代限制价格，维持进口替代和种植成本定价逻辑，关注政策 导向。策略上，2509合约支撑关注2300 - 2320，有效可波段做多。生猪期货，长线宜高空，中线呈区间 运行，短线反弹试探压力。短期猪价震荡，中期2 - 5月新生仔猪增加，出栏体重降幅有限，供给增量预 期仍在，上涨难。长期能繁母猪存栏高于正常，生产效率提升，全年产能将持续兑现。策略上，2509合 约第一压力14400 - 14600，第二压力14800 - 15000；2511合约关注13800压力。鸡蛋期货，蛋价或确认 阶段性底部，按基差逻辑交易。短期供给稳定，下跌空间有限。中期集中淘汰和中秋旺季或使8 - 9月现 货反弹，高点取决于淘鸡节奏。长期若三季度养殖利润转正，四季度供给压力 ...

Report Date - The report is dated July 10, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on July 10, 2025, including股指期货,国债 futures, and commodity futures [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: Expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation on July 10, 2025. For example, IF2509 has resistance at 3978 and 4000 points and support at 3940 and 3930 points [2] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year T2509 and thirty - year TL2509 are likely to oscillate and consolidate on July 10, 2025 [2][33] - **Commodity Futures**: Gold, aluminum, industrial silicon, etc. are expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation; silver and soybean meal are expected to be in a weak - biased oscillation on July 10, 2025 [1][2] Macro News and Trading Tips - **Domestic News**: China's June CPI rose 0.1% year - on - year, and core CPI continued to rise. New employment - stabilizing policies were introduced, and market supervision strengthened fair competition [8][9] - **International News**: Trump proposed tariff increases on multiple countries. The Fed showed differences in interest rate outlooks, and the EU prepared counter - measures against the US in trade disputes [9][10] Commodity Futures - Related Information - **Precious Metals**: On July 9, COMEX gold futures rose 0.17%, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.39% [11] - **Crude Oil**: On July 9, US crude oil and Brent crude oil futures prices declined slightly, and US EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased [11] - **Base Metals**: On July 9, LME copper futures fell 1.33%, and LME zinc and aluminum futures rose [11] Futures Market Analysis and Outlook - **Stock Index Futures**: On July 9, 2025, major stock index futures contracts showed a downward trend with weakened upward momentum and increased downward pressure. It is expected to be in a strong - biased oscillation in July [12][13][18] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On July 9, 2025, most treasury bond futures closed higher. The ten - year and thirty - year futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate on July 10 [33][38] - **Commodity Futures**: Different commodity futures showed different trends on July 9, 2025, and their trends on July 10 are predicted, such as gold futures being in a strong - biased oscillation and silver futures being in a weak - biased oscillation [41][46]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the short - term, in the context of the strengthening of the cotton spot price, the price of the cotton 2509 contract may continue the trend of fluctuating and strengthening. It is necessary to closely monitor the support of the 5 - day moving average in the future [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview and Market Review - **1.1 Overall Market Performance on the Day** - On July 2, 2025, the opening price of the main contract CF2509 of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's cotton futures was 13,730 yuan/ton. The price showed a fluctuating and strengthening pattern during the day, with an intraday peak of 13,850 yuan/ton and an intraday low of 13,720 yuan/ton. It finally closed at 13,805 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton or 0.51% from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume for the whole day was 182,581 lots, the open interest decreased by 2,771 lots, and the total open interest reached 560,465 lots [2]. - The trading volume of cotton options on that day was 95,770 lots, and the total open interest reached 360,536 lots, an increase of 7,129 lots compared with the previous trading day [2]. - **1.2 Futures Market Data** - For contract CF2507, the closing price was 13,600 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton or 0.63%, with a trading volume of 1,081 lots, an amplitude of 0.67%, an open interest of 18,553 lots, and a daily decrease of 98 lots. - For contract CF2509, the closing price was 13,805 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton or 0.51%, with a trading volume of 182,581 lots, an amplitude of 0.95%, an open interest of 560,465 lots, and a daily decrease of 2,771 lots. - For contract CF2601, the closing price was 13,820 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton or 0.51%, with a trading volume of 53,324 lots, an amplitude of 0.98%, an open interest of 193,520 lots, and a daily increase of 2,882 lots [5]. - **1.3 Spot Market Data** - According to the monitoring data of the Cotlook M Index on July 2, the average arrival price of imported cotton was 75.54 cents/pound, down 0.18 cents/pound from July 1. After conversion, the import cost was 13,156 yuan/ton under the 1% tariff and 14,003 yuan/ton under the sliding - scale tariff [5]. - The domestic CC Index 3128B closed at 15,089 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from July 1. The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton at Shandong warehouses (Grade 3128B) was currently quoted at 15,180 yuan/ton, also up 40 yuan/ton from July 1. The national cotton basis index CNCottonJ (CF2509) was quoted at 1,038 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton from July 1 [6]. 2. Analysis of Influencing Factors - **2.1 Tracking and Interpretation of Related Data** - **Analysis of the Open Interest of the Main Contract**: Among the top 20 seats of the main contract, the top three long - position increasing seats were CITIC Futures with a position of 85,574 lots and an increase of 3,044 lots, Dongzheng Futures with a position of 21,992 lots and an increase of 1,483 lots, and Founder CIFCO with a position of 14,683 lots and an increase of 291 lots. The top three long - position decreasing seats were Galaxy Futures with a position of 13,958 lots and a decrease of 4,008 lots, COFCO Futures with a position of 26,882 lots and a decrease of 2,011 lots, and Shenyin Wanguo with a position of 11,308 lots and a decrease of 1,212 lots [8]. - Among the top 20 seats of the main contract, the top three short - position increasing seats were Green大华 Futures with a position of 8,408 lots and an increase of 553 lots, Guotai Junan with a position of 25,157 lots and an increase of 270 lots, and Huatai Futures with a position of 10,568 lots and an increase of 263 lots. The top three short - position decreasing seats were COFCO Futures with a position of 53,340 lots and a decrease of 1,487 lots, Shenyin Wanguo with a position of 7,943 lots and a decrease of 1,251 lots, and Yong'an Futures with a position of 34,039 lots and a decrease of 596 lots [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash futures market is in a weak oscillation phase, and the glass futures market is also in an oscillatory trend. Due to the weak fundamentals of both industries, including high inventory, high production capacity, and subdued downstream demand, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for both soda ash and glass futures [6][30]. 3. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - The soda ash futures are in a weak oscillation. Last week, the market oscillated. On July 2nd, it rebounded due to policy and sentiment but dropped the next day. The industry's fundamentals are weak with high inventory and capacity, and the downstream glass industry's production cut expectations suppress demand. The overall supply is ample, and the price is pressured by the glass industry. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory pattern, and it is advisable to wait and see [6]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The soda ash industry's high operating rate led to unchanged supply, while downstream glass demand was low. Without capacity adjustment or demand recovery, the futures price may oscillate weakly. The expected operating range for soda ash 2509 was 1150 - 1300, and it was recommended to stay on the sidelines [9]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The industry fundamentals remain weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the expected operating range for soda ash 2509 being 1150 - 1300. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Related Data Situation** - The report lists data such as China's weekly soda ash operating rate, production, light and heavy - quality inventory, basis, and ammonia - soda production cost in North China [11][15][18]. - The main capital indicators show that the long - short flow is - 77.1 (more bearish), the capital energy is 78.3 (significant capital inflow), and the long - short divergence is 92.7 (high risk of market reversal) [22]. Glass Futures - **Mid - term Market Analysis** - The glass market is in an oscillatory trend. Last week, the float glass price oscillated. The industry's operating rate was over 75%, and the production was 110.34 tons, a slight increase. Although the price in some areas rose slightly, the overall market focused on inventory reduction. High inventory pressure persists, and the supply - demand relationship has not improved significantly. It is expected that the price will oscillate with limited rebound space, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [30]. - **Variety Trading Strategy** - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: The domestic 5mm float glass market was regionally differentiated. The futures price rose slightly due to sentiment but was restricted by high inventory and weak demand. It was expected to continue oscillating, with the expected operating range for glass 2509 being 950 - 1150, and it was recommended to stay on the sidelines [33]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: The float glass price oscillated last week. The market's core is still inventory reduction. High inventory pressure continues, and the supply - demand relationship has not improved significantly. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with the expected operating range for glass 2509 being 950 - 1150. It is recommended to wait and see [34]. - **Related Data Situation** - The report lists data such as China's weekly float glass production, operating rate, production cost and gross profit of the float process using natural gas as fuel, basis, and ending inventory [35][40][42]. - The main capital indicators show that the long - short flow is - 98.8 (more bearish), the capital energy is 40.1 (slight capital inflow), and the long - short divergence is 97.5 (high risk of market reversal) [46].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report Based on macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures on July 1, 2025. Index futures and some commodity futures such as gold, PTA, and soybean meal are expected to have a relatively strong oscillation, while some other commodity futures like alumina, zinc, and crude oil are expected to have a relatively weak oscillation. Treasury bond futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Forecast Highlights - Index futures (IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, IM2509) are expected to have a relatively strong oscillation, with specified resistance and support levels [2]. - Ten - year Treasury bond futures T2509 and thirty - year Treasury bond futures TL2509 are likely to oscillate and consolidate, with corresponding support and resistance levels [2]. - Gold futures AU2510 are likely to have a relatively strong oscillation, aiming to break through resistance levels [2]. - Silver, copper, aluminum, and other futures are expected to oscillate and consolidate, while alumina, zinc, and other futures are expected to have a relatively weak oscillation, with respective support and resistance levels [3]. 2. Macro News and Trading Tips - China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMI all increased in June, indicating an improvement in the economic climate [8]. - Policies such as tax incentives for foreign direct investment and the issuance of QDII investment quotas have been introduced [8]. - International events include trade negotiations, sanctions, and interest rate - related remarks, which may impact the financial and commodity markets [9]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Index Futures - On June 30, 2025, index futures showed different trends, and it is expected that in July 2025, they will generally have a relatively strong oscillation [14][22]. Treasury Bond Futures - On June 30, ten - year and thirty - year Treasury bond futures declined. The central bank's policies and market liquidity conditions are important factors affecting the Treasury bond market [37][42]. Gold and Silver Futures - Gold futures AU2510 and silver futures AG2508 showed different trends on June 30, and different trends are expected for July 1 and the whole month of July [47][53]. Base Metal Futures - Copper, aluminum, and other base metal futures showed different trends on June 30, and different trends are expected for July 1 and the whole month of July [57][62]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Crude oil, fuel oil, and other energy and chemical futures showed different trends on June 30, and different trends are expected for July 1 and the whole month of July [114][118]. Agricultural Futures - Soybean meal futures M2509 showed an upward trend on June 30, and a relatively strong oscillation is expected on July 1 [128].

6月30日盘中，对二甲苯期货主力合约偏强震荡，最高上探至6890.0元。截止发稿，对二甲苯主力合约 报6812.0元，涨幅1.25%。 对二甲苯期货主力涨超1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 新世纪期货 PX价格跟随油价波动 新世纪期货：PX价格跟随油价波动 地缘局势有望进一步缓和，油价维持承压姿态。近期国内外多套PX装置重启或提负，供应较前期提 升，PTA负荷略微回落，但聚酯负荷暂稳。但近月PX供需仍呈现偏紧的格局，短期来看，PXN价差仍 具备支撑，PX价格跟随油价波动。 中辉期货：PX关注【6760，6950】 综合来看，国内外PX装置负荷偏高运行，需求端PTA检修装置复产叠加新产能投放，供需预期双增； PX库存去库但整体依旧偏高。6月基本面偏紧，PXN不低，基差偏高，近期跟随成本波动，震荡偏强， 关注逢低布局多单机会。【策略推荐】：PX关注【6760，6950】。 东海期货：近期PX将继续跟随原油偏强震荡 短期PX成本支撑较强，但油价回落将带给市场较多不确定性，PX价格近期面临回调风险。而PTA近期 开工略有回升也带动需求回升。以及国内装置近期检修增加，偏紧格局将持续，PX外盘 ...

Overall Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on Soybean Meal and Soybean Oil Futures [2] - Report Period: June 30 - July 4, 2025 [1] 1. Soybean Meal Futures 1.1 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 1.2 Core View - The soybean meal futures will continue to trade in a wide - range oscillation. The current supply is ample with high imports and high mill operation rates, but there are uncertainties from the strengthening Brazilian soybean premium and Sino - US trade relations. It is recommended to wait and see [7]. 1.3 Summary by Directory 1.3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean meal main contract is in a wide - range oscillation phase. In the 25th week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3842 million tons with an operation rate of 67.02%. Soybean inventory was 6.3799 million tons, up 383,900 tons (6.40%) from last week. Soybean meal inventory was 508,900 tons, up 98,900 tons (24.12%) from last week. With high imports and high operation rates, supply is abundant, but there are uncertainties from Brazilian premiums and Sino - US trade. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [7]. 1.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean meal futures price was in a sideways trend overall, with bearish funds. The M2509 contract was expected to trade in the range of 2900 - 3120 in the short - term, and range trading was recommended [10]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The soybean meal futures price is in a sideways trend overall, with bearish funds. The M2509 contract may continue to trade in a wide - range oscillation, with an expected trading range of 2880 - 3080 [11]. 1.3.3 Related Data Situation - Data includes soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [18][20][24] 2. Soybean Oil Futures 2.1 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2.2 Core View - The soybean oil futures price is in a high - level oscillation phase. High domestic soybean arrivals boost mill crushing, while weak summer consumption and falling crude oil prices due to the easing Middle - East situation suppress prices. However, there are uncertainties from US biodiesel policies and the key growth period of US soybeans. It is recommended to wait and see [31]. 2.3 Summary by Directory 2.3.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - Mid - line trend: The soybean oil main contract is in a high - level oscillation phase. In the 25th week, the actual output of 125 oil mills was 453,000 tons, up 23,800 tons from last week. The commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions was 886,300 tons, up 39,300 tons from last week. High soybean arrivals, weak summer consumption, and falling crude oil prices suppress prices, but there are uncertainties from US policies and US soybean growth. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [31]. 2.3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The soybean oil futures price was in an upward channel overall, with bullish funds. Due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, the price was expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term, and it was recommended to wait and see [34]. - This week's strategy suggestion: The soybean oil futures price is in an upward channel overall, with slightly bullish funds. The Y2509 contract may maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short - term, with an expected trading range of 7800 - 8100 [35]. 2.3.3 Related Data Situation - Data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrivals, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operation rate, and weekly port inventory. Data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and Great Wall Futures Trading Consultation Department [44][47][49]

2025.06.30-07.04 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 纯碱期货处于弱势震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周国内纯碱行业整体开工率维持高位，综合开工率为80%+，尽管 中盐昆山装置停车检修，杭州龙山降负运行，但行业整体供应并未 明显收缩。下游玻璃行业对纯碱的采购需求持续低迷，浮法玻璃与 光伏玻璃日熔量均出现下降，导致纯碱刚需支撑不足。企业普遍采 取逢低少量补库的策略，对高价货源接受度有限，市场成交以低价 刚需小单为主。除非出现实质性产能调整或需求端明显回暖，否则 承压运行趋势难改，预计纯碱期货价格仍将维持弱势震荡走势。 2 建议观望 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 相关数据情况 纯碱：开工率：中国（周） 纯碱：产量：中国（周） 上周纯碱期货市场震荡偏弱，价格波动小。供应端开工率仍 处高位，部分装置检修或减量。需求端下游采购意愿弱，多 低价刚需采购。因供需宽松、需求不振，预计纯碱期货价格 将延续弱势震荡。预期纯碱2509运行区间1150-1300，可 ...

2025.06.23-06.27 豆粕、豆油 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 豆粕期货 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 中线行情分析 中线趋势来看，豆粕主力处于宽幅震荡的阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 据Mysteel数据：第24周油厂大豆实际压榨量225.87万吨，开机率为 63.49%；大豆库存599.6万吨，较上周减少10.69万吨，减幅1.75%。豆粕 库存41万吨，较上周增加2.75万吨，增幅7.19%。当前油厂开机率仍然维 持高位运行，然而终端养殖饲料需求旺盛，下游提货积极性较好，豆粕 库存累积缓慢。尽管供应宽松格局抑制价格上行空间，但巴西贴水坚挺 及美豆进入关键生长期提供支撑，叠加豆粕库存处于低位。综合来看， 豆粕期货延续宽幅震荡运行。 2 建议观望。 3 中线策略建议 品种交易策略 n 上周策略回顾 豆粕期价整体趋势横盘阶段,资金方面强烈偏空。M2509短期 内或维持宽幅震荡，预计运行区间：2880-3100，可考虑区 间操作。 n 本周策略建议 豆粕期价整体趋势横盘阶段,资金方面较为偏空。M2509短期内 维持宽幅震荡，预计运行 ...