Group 1 - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in June, reflecting a cautious approach amid uncertainties related to Trump's policies, opting to wait for clearer signals for potential rate cuts [1][3] - The Fed's description of economic uncertainty changed from "further increasing" to "somewhat decreasing but still high," indicating a slightly more optimistic outlook while remaining vigilant [1] - Economic forecasts show a downward revision in GDP, an upward revision in unemployment rate, and an upward revision in inflation, suggesting a more complex financial landscape in the second half of the year [1][5] Group 2 - The dot plot indicates a downward adjustment in the Fed's rate cut expectations for 2026, reflecting a more cautious stance on future economic trends [3] - Fed Chair Powell's post-meeting remarks were hawkish, noting that while job growth has slowed, the unemployment rate remains low, and he anticipates significant inflationary pressures in the coming months [3] - Following the FOMC decision, U.S. Treasury yields rose while the stock market declined, with market expectations for rate cuts in September and December contrasting with the Fed's cautious outlook [3][5] Group 3 - The likelihood of a rate cut in September is considered low, with the Fed likely to maintain a wait-and-see approach due to persistent inflation risks and a slow rise in unemployment [5] - Factors such as tariffs affecting consumer prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may contribute to upward pressure on inflation [6] - Despite an upward trend in initial jobless claims, seasonal factors are likely influencing this increase, necessitating close monitoring of future jobless claims data [6]

Inflation Data - The U.S. June CPI year-on-year increased to 2.7%, matching expectations, while the previous value was 2.4%[2] - Month-on-month CPI rose by 0.3%, consistent with expectations, compared to a previous value of 0.1%[2] - Core CPI year-on-year was 2.9%, slightly below the expected 3.0%, and the previous value was 2.8%[2] Economic Implications - The rise in overall inflation is attributed to increased energy prices, tariff impacts, and expectations from new fiscal legislation[2] - The core CPI's slight underperformance is influenced by weak new car sales and a cooling housing market[2] - The risk of "stagflation" in the U.S. economy is increasing due to the divergence between inflation data and weak non-farm private employment figures[2] Energy Prices - Energy prices rebounded due to geopolitical tensions, with energy goods prices changing from -2.4% to 1.0% month-on-month[2] - Energy service prices maintained a high growth rate, increasing from 0.4% to 0.9% month-on-month[2] Tariff Effects - Core goods prices increased year-on-year from 0.3% to 0.7%, with clothing being a major contributor[2] - The month-on-month change in core goods prices rose from 0.0% to 0.2%[2] Housing Market - The housing market continues to cool, with housing prices year-on-year decreasing from 3.9% to 3.8%[2] - The NAHB housing market index fell to 32, the lowest point in 2023[2] Market Expectations - Following the CPI release, market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in Q3 have diminished, with a 53.5% probability for a rate cut in September[4] - The strong inflation data does not support a rate cut, increasing the likelihood of the Fed having to choose between stabilizing employment and controlling inflation[2]

Core Viewpoint - The inflation effects of Trump's tariffs are becoming evident, with the latest data showing an acceleration in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June, indicating that tariff costs are being passed from businesses to consumers, potentially leading to stagflation in the U.S. economy [1][5][9] Economic Indicators - In June, the CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from May, and a month-on-month rise of 0.3%, up by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [1][6] - The "super core inflation," which excludes food, energy, and housing, increased by 0.12% month-on-month in June, significantly higher than the previous two months' increases of 0.01% and 0.07% [1][6] Tariff Impact - The tariffs introduced on April 2 have begun to affect prices, particularly in sectors like furniture and toys, which are sensitive to tariff changes [5][6] - Analysts suggest that the impact of tariffs on inflation was initially muted due to inventory buffers, but as these buffers deplete, the inflationary effects will become more pronounced [6][9] Consumer and Business Costs - Goldman Sachs estimates that businesses will pass approximately 70% of the tariff costs onto consumers, with the remaining 30% absorbed by businesses and foreign exporters [7] - The annual inflation expectations among the public have risen to 4.9%, with long-term expectations reaching 3.9%, the highest since 1993 [8] Economic Growth Projections - The U.S. GDP growth is expected to slow significantly, with various institutions revising their forecasts downwards for 2025, indicating a potential growth rate of 1.3% to 1.7% [9][10] - The Federal Reserve may face constraints on its ability to lower interest rates due to rising inflation pressures, with the next potential rate cut not expected until September [9][10]

Group 1 - The World Gold Council's mid-year outlook report indicates that if economists and market participants' macroeconomic predictions are accurate, gold prices may experience a sideways trend in the second half of the year, with some upward potential [1] - Historical experience shows that economic performance rarely aligns perfectly with consensus forecasts, suggesting uncertainty in future gold price movements [1] - If economic and financial conditions worsen, along with increased stagflation pressures and escalating geopolitical tensions, safe-haven demand could drive gold prices up by 10%-15% [1] - Conversely, if global conflicts are resolved broadly and sustainably, gold may retrace 12%-17% of its gains this year, although this scenario is currently considered unlikely [1] - The World Gold Council anticipates that global central bank demand for gold will remain strong in 2025, despite a potential decline from record levels, still expected to exceed the average of 500-600 tons per year prior to 2022 [1] - The report emphasizes that pressures related to the US dollar may persist, and discussions about the end of the "American exceptionalism" narrative could become a focal point for investors [1] - Overall, these conditions position gold as a net beneficiary, although some positive factors are already reflected in current gold prices [1] Group 2 - In June, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year, exceeding the 2.4% increase in May and aligning with economists' expectations [2] - Typically, gold performs best in low-interest-rate environments, making it more attractive compared to interest-bearing assets like bonds [2] - The main gold futures contract for July delivery on the New York Commodity Exchange fell by 0.6%, settling at $3,329.80 per ounce, while the main silver futures contract dropped by 1.6%, closing at $37.834 per ounce [2]

面对下跌，普通投资者现在该怎么做？是止损，持有，还是买入？金国强建议：降低杠杆、逢低布局 （而非追高或恐慌割肉），利用期权保护，现货选ETF，以定投思维持有。 避险退潮与降息预期推迟 金国强指出，本轮金价下跌受两大核心因素驱动。一是避险情绪消退，加沙、俄乌等热点地区局势降 温，市场风险偏好回升。中美日内瓦谈判达成阶段性共识，特朗普政府对等关税政策引发的避险情绪退 潮。二是美联储降息预期弱化，美国6月非农新增就业14.7万人超预期，失业率降至4.1%，通胀数据稳 定，导致7月降息概率跌破10%，延迟至9月后。 期货市场上，主力合约多空双方力量对比发生了哪些关键转折？这些变化是不是揭示了市场情绪的转 变？金国强认为，从期货市场信号来看，机构高位减持，牛市进入"鱼尾阶段"。 资金动向揭示了市场情绪转变。金国强表示，国内外机构同步高位减持。国内期货市场，主力多头持仓 从峰值3万手减至1.3万手，净持仓占比从40%降至33%；海外市场，COMEX黄金管理基金净多持仓占 比从29%降至13%（4月前），5月后反弹至20%，但总持仓量持续萎缩。 本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者张玫 北京报道 期货市场常被视为 ...

7月15日亚盘早市，现货黄金价格报3347.92美元/盎司，较昨日高点3374.78美元回落近30美元，跌幅0.89%。美元指数升至98.05，创下近期新高，10年期美 债收益率攀升至4.236%，触及四周高位。 | 报价 资讯 相关品种 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨收 | 3342.53 | 最高 | 3352. | | 开盘 | 3344.23 | 最低 | 3341.2 | 今日市场焦点将集中于美国6月CPI数据，市场普遍预期总体CPI同比涨幅将从5月的2.4%升至2.6%，核心CPI同比涨幅或达2.9%，高于前值2.8%。这一数据将 直接影响美联储政策预期，进而决定黄金短期走势方向。 | 日历 | GMT | 参考日期 | 现值 | 前次数据 | 市场预期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-05-13 | 12:30 PM | Apr | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | | 2025-06-11 | 12:30 PM | Mav | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | | 202 ...

Core Viewpoint - Financial institutions are closely monitoring the economic outlook and inflation for the second half of the year, with a focus on upcoming earnings reports from major banks like JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup [2]. Group 1: Earnings and Market Performance - The second quarter earnings growth rate for S&P 500 companies is projected at 4.8%, marking the lowest since Q4 2023, raising concerns about the impact of tariffs on corporate performance [2]. - Major banks are expected to report better-than-expected profit growth driven by active trading and a mild rebound in investment banking, with an increase in IPOs and mergers since April [3]. - Analysts predict that trading revenues will rise by 5%-10% in Q2, with strong expectations for investment banking revenues as market conditions improve [3]. Group 2: Interest Income and Credit Quality - Net interest income (NII) growth is anticipated to be around 5%, supported by resilient financial conditions among consumers and businesses, despite a softening in loan demand [3]. - Credit quality remains strong for both consumer and commercial borrowers, with limited provisions for potential bad loans expected [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment and Capital Deployment - Recent stress tests indicate that large financial institutions are well-capitalized to withstand adverse conditions, leading to increased dividends and stock buyback plans [4]. - The regulatory environment is expected to become more favorable, with the appointment of Michelle Bowman as the Fed's vice chair for supervision signaling a shift towards less stringent regulations [4]. Group 4: Economic Challenges and Opportunities - Potential headwinds for financial institutions include economic slowdown pressures, inflation concerns related to tariffs, and geopolitical tensions [5]. - Despite some recovery in the IPO and M&A markets, activity remains below peak levels from previous years [5]. - The stability of corporate credit spreads and the potential for rising long-term interest rates could benefit net interest income, enhancing profitability for banks [5]. Group 5: Insights from Earnings Calls - Earnings calls from major banks will provide critical insights into economic outlooks, particularly regarding net interest income and the impact of tariffs and fiscal concerns on long-term rates [6]. - Consumer confidence has shown signs of improvement, with high-end consumers continuing to spend, although rising long-term rates could pose challenges [6].

华见早安之声 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 要闻 中美外长在吉隆坡举行会晤：同意加强沟通对话，探索扩大合作领域。 欧盟推三项供应链提案"去风险"，冯德莱恩就对华关系表态。 特朗普称对墨西哥、欧盟征收30%关税，8月1日实施。冯德莱恩：欧盟推迟对美关税反制措施，延至8月初。德副总理：若与美贸易谈判失败， 将坚决反制。 德银："鲍威尔被迫离职"是重大且被低估的风险。美政府高官公开发帖暗示：鲍威尔考虑辞职。美国政府高官透露，美联储主席鲍威尔因总部翻 新争议可能考虑辞职。美联储罕见发文否认过度装修：没有VIP餐厅、没有VIP电梯、没有新水景！ 全国吃货疯狂点单！周六结束，美团深夜晒战报：订单1.5亿，平均34分钟送达，骑手收入公布。"外卖补贴大战"周末重启，摩根大通：如此惨 烈，值得吗？ 英伟达首席执行官黄仁勋将于7月16日在北京召开新闻发布会。 市场概述 特朗普"对等关税2.0"开战，美股三大指数齐跌、未再创新高，全周均收低，科技七巨头则表现韧性。泛欧股指周五跌超1%。 关税引发通胀担忧，美债遭到抛售，10年期美债收益率涨近6个基点。 美元指数震荡于97关口上方，全周反弹累计涨1%、脱离 ...

Group 1: Global Market Performance - The MSCI Global Stock Index decreased by 0.34%, while the Bloomberg Global Commodity Index fell by 0.42%, the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Bond Index dropped by 0.89%, and the FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Global REITs Index declined by 0.90% [1] - Emerging markets outperformed developed markets, with only the Chinese stock market rising among the BRICS nations; the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.82% and the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.93% [1] - In developed markets, the European STOXX Index rose by 1.15%, with Germany's DAX Index up by 1.97% and France's CAC40 Index up by 1.73%, while U.S. indices fell, with the S&P 500 down by 0.31% [1] Group 2: Commodity Market Insights - Brent crude oil futures rose by 3.02% to $70.36 per barrel, while WTI crude oil futures increased by 2.16% to $68.45 per barrel [4] - Industrial metals showed mixed performance; aluminum prices increased by 0.50%, while copper prices fell by 2.07% [2] - Gold prices rose by 0.55% to $3,355.59 per ounce, and silver prices increased by 4.02% [2] Group 3: Bond Market Developments - U.S. Treasury yields saw a slight increase, with the 10-year yield rising by 6.4 basis points to 4.411% [2] - European countries also experienced rising yields, with the UK's 10-year yield up by 3.6 basis points to 4.620% [2] - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.69% to 97.853, while the Japanese yen depreciated by over 2% against the dollar [2] Group 4: Economic Data and Trends - U.S. initial jobless claims were reported at 227,000, slightly below expectations, while continuing claims rose to 1.965 million [3] - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes indicated a divergence in views on interest rate adjustments, with some members favoring rate cuts while others expressed concerns about persistent inflation [3] - The Eurozone's retail sales increased by 1.8% year-on-year, surpassing expectations [3] Group 5: REITs and Real Estate Market - The global REITs market saw a decline, with the STOXX Global 1800 REITs Index down by 1.03% [10] - U.S. REITs showed varied performance across sectors, with hotel REITs outperforming expectations [10] - The outlook for REITs remains mixed, with healthcare REITs showing consistent growth while retail REITs face volatility [10] Group 6: Investment Opportunities - Investors are advised to monitor oil price fluctuations due to geopolitical risks and OPEC+ production increases [7] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may enhance gold's safe-haven appeal, prompting investors to consider gold price trends [9] - The potential for further monetary easing by central banks could create long-term investment opportunities in REITs [10]

来源：中国金融信息网 新华财经上海7月13日电（葛佳明） 本周（7月7日至12日），美国关税政策不确定性再起，美股三大指数承压下挫，市场对美国通 胀的担忧推动美元指数震荡上行，非美货币多数下挫，黄金反弹，白银大涨，刷新2011年以来高位。 外汇市场方面，关税政策的不确定性推升美元走势，美元指数本周涨0.91%报97.873；非美货币方面，澳元兑美元本周持续走高，澳 洲联储维持利率不变，超市场预期；英镑和欧元兑美元震荡下跌，英镑录得六连跌；日元周初大幅下跌后维持区间盘整，本周累计 下跌2%。 大宗商品方面，现货黄金周初区间震荡，一度下破3300关口，但随着关税政策再度刺激市场避险情绪升温，周三黄金持续反弹，本 周累计涨幅达0.62%，收于每盎司3355.7美元，连续第二周上涨；纽约COMEX黄金主力期货合约本周上涨0.82%，收报每盎司3370.5 美元。 现货白银、铂金本周大幅上涨，其中，现货白银本周大涨3.98%，收报每盎司38.406美元；COMEX白银主力合约期货本周累计上涨 5.37%，收报每盎司39.08美元。现货铂金本周突破每盎司1400美元关口，NYMEX铂金期货价格本周累计上涨6.55%，收报 ...