| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年06月30日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | 女女女 | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | 豆粕 | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | | な女女 | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | な女女 | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕榈油 | な女女 | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ななな | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 本周国产大豆东北产区天气有利于作物生长，未来10天降雨量会偏多，关注天气对作物的影响。政策方面短期 国产大豆购销双向交易，关注实际的成交表现。进口大豆方面市场关注美国大豆种植面积报告指引以及中美贸 易谈判进展。短期持续关注天气和政策的指引。 【大豆&豆粕】 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - 豆一: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - 豆粕: ★★★ [1] - 豆油: ★★★ [1] - 棕榈油: ★★★ [1] - 菜粕: ★★★ [1] - 菜油: ★★★ [1] - 玉米: ★★★ [1] - 生猪: ★☆☆, representing a bias towards long/short, with a driving force for price increase/decrease but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - 鸡蛋: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The prices of various agricultural products are affected by multiple factors such as weather, supply and demand, and policy. The short - term market trends are mostly in a state of shock, and long - term trends need to be judged based on different factors such as biodiesel development and policy intentions [2][3][4] Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean - Domestic soybeans continue to decline. Imported soybean auctions have all failed. US soybeans are weak due to favorable short - term weather and the market is waiting for the planting area report at the end of the month. There is little remaining domestic soybean at the grass - roots level, and the policy side is conducting auctions to supplement supply. Short - term attention should be paid to the guidance of the US soybean area report and weather conditions [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - As of June 24, about 12% of US soybean - growing areas were affected by drought, showing improvement. In the next two weeks, the weather in most US soybean - growing areas is favorable for growth. Domestic spot prices have continued to fall by 30 - 50 yuan/ton, and soybean meal inventory in oil mills has increased. Five domestic large enterprises have jointly purchased 30,000 tons of Argentine soybean meal. The soybean meal market is currently in a state of shock. The US Department of Agriculture will release the planting area report at 00:00 on July 1 [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The soybean and palm oil futures are oscillating and waiting for the planting area report at the end of the month. In the short term, the domestic soybean market still faces a large arrival pressure, and the procurement volume in the fourth quarter is relatively low. In the long term, the development of biodiesel can support the vegetable oil market, so a long - term strategy of buying on dips for vegetable oils is recommended [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The near - and far - month contracts of rapeseed futures have mixed performance but are generally weak. Rainfall in Canadian rapeseed - growing areas has improved soil humidity. The old - crop rapeseed inventory is tight, and there are many uncertainties in new - crop weather. It is recommended to change the short - term strategy from bearish to wait - and - see [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures continue to oscillate, with a divergence between futures and spot prices (spot is strong and futures are weak). The overall contradiction in the corn market is not significant. The expected increase in state - reserve auctions suppresses the increase in corn prices. North port inventories are decreasing, and south port inventories are slightly increasing. The operating rate of starch deep - processing enterprises may continue to decline. The corn futures market is expected to oscillate in the near future [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures are weakly adjusted with reduced positions, and spot prices have increased in various regions. In the medium term, due to the continuous increase in the inventory of breeding sows and the number of newborn piglets, the pressure on future hog slaughter is large, and the room for pig price rebound is limited. In the long term, the policy aims to stabilize pig prices, and attention should be paid to when the production capacity reaches an inflection point [8] Eggs - Egg futures contracts show different performances within the day, generally oscillating in the previously formed low - level range. Spot prices are stable. Since the number of chick replenishments from January to April this year was the highest in the same period in recent years, it is believed that the production capacity is still being released. The culling of old hens is insufficient, and the culling age is relatively high. The long - term egg price cycle has not bottomed out, and the strategy of shorting on rallies for futures prices continues [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (★★★)**: Soybean (Bean 1), Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Corn [1] - **Sell (★☆☆)**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Live Pigs, Eggs [1] 2. Core Views - The report analyzes the market trends of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs. Short - term market trends are affected by factors such as weather, planting area reports, and policy changes, while long - term trends are influenced by supply - demand relationships and bio - diesel development [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean (Bean 1) - Domestic soybeans are in a downward trend. U.S. soybeans are weak due to favorable short - term weather and market waiting for the planting area report. There is little residual grain at the grass - roots level of domestic soybeans, and the policy side is conducting auctions. Short - term focus is on the U.S. soybean area report and weather [2] 3.2 Soybean & Soybean Meal - Soybean meal futures fell 2.43% today. Before the U.S. Department of Agriculture's planting area report on July 1, institutions predict an average soybean planting area of 83.655 million acres. U.S. weather is favorable for soybean growth. Domestic spot prices are falling, and oil mill soybean meal inventories are increasing. The soybean meal market is currently in a volatile state [3] 3.3 Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - U.S. soybeans are weak. Brazil will raise the biodiesel blending ratio to 15% from August 1. The decline of soybean and palm oil has slowed. In the long - term, a long - position strategy for vegetable oils is recommended, waiting for the U.S. soybean planting area report [4] 3.4 Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed meal futures continue to be weak. The weather in North American oilseed areas is good. The inventory of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil in oil mills is low, but the East China inventory is sufficient. A short - position strategy for rapeseed products is recommended [6] 3.5 Corn - Dalian corn futures are fluctuating weakly. There are policies on wheat prices, and the expected state reserve auction suppresses the increase of corn prices. The inventory situation varies between north and south ports. Corn futures are expected to be volatile [7] 3.6 Live Pigs - The main contract of live pig futures rebounds slightly, and the far - month contract is relatively weak. Spot prices are rising slightly. In the medium - term, the pressure of pig supply is large, and the long - term focus is on policy and production capacity inflection points [8] 3.7 Eggs - The main contract of egg futures shows a doji pattern. Spot prices are stable in some areas and slightly lower in others. Egg production capacity is still being released, and a short - position strategy for egg futures is recommended [9]

Group 1 - The stock of Haineng Technology (300072) closed at 3.71 yuan on June 23, 2025, with a daily increase of 20.06%, reaching a new high for the stage, and a trading volume of 6.02 billion yuan, with a turnover rate of 7.23% [1] - A large block trade occurred on the same day, with a transaction volume of 403,700 shares at a price of 3.09 yuan, representing a discount of 16.71% compared to the closing price, totaling 1.2474 million yuan [1] - Institutional investors net bought 8.6666 million yuan worth of Haineng Technology shares, ranking fourth in buying positions, while the Shenzhen Stock Connect saw a net purchase of 10.3053 million yuan, becoming the largest buying force [1] Group 2 - Market analysis suggests that the stock price fluctuation may be related to the company's recent industrial breakthroughs, including the launch of a 200,000 tons/year biodiesel isomerization project SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) on June 20, marking it as the first local state-owned enterprise to obtain airworthiness certification from the Civil Aviation Administration [2] - The SAF market is experiencing a widening supply gap due to long capacity construction cycles and rapidly growing demand, with recent price increases for HVO/SAF [2] - The current dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of Haineng Technology is -43.67 times, with a total market value of 8.717 billion yuan and a price-to-book ratio of 1.47 times, indicating market divergence regarding its profit turnaround expectations and asset quality [2]

| | | | '/ V V SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年06月20日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | なな女 | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | な☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ななな | | | 標 潟 海 | ななな | F3078401 Z0015853 | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | ななな | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | ななな | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | な女女 | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ★☆☆ | | | 鸡蛋 | な☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 豆一短暂调整之后价格止跌上涨。本周国储政策拍卖和地方储备拍卖均在进行。市场上的余粮偏少，目前靠政 策交易量在补充。进口大豆方面中期会受天气驱动,天气会成为影响价格的主要因素，并且长期趋势美国生栄 政策利多，也 ...

Report Core View - The overall situation of agricultural products presents complex trends, with different varieties affected by factors such as weather, policies, and geopolitical situations. There are differences in price trends and investment outlooks among various agricultural products [2][3][4] Summary by Variety Soybean - Domestic soybeans continued to rise today, but the domestic soybean bidding procurement failed. In terms of price difference, domestic soybeans are weaker than imported soybeans. Imported soybeans will be driven by weather in the medium - term, and the long - term US biodiesel policy is bullish, making CBOT soybeans price resistant. In the short term, the weather in Northeast China is conducive to soybean growth [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict has led to a rise in crude oil and strong performance of US soybeans. Dalian soybean meal closed flat. The continuous strong rise of domestic soybean oil may suppress the increase of soybean meal. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate is 66%, slightly lower than expected. Future US weather is favorable for soybean growth. There are still many uncertainties in Sino - US trade. Pay attention to the fluctuations in the oil sector and the potential price increase driven by bad weather from June to August [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - As the price of oil rises, the soybean crushing profit on the futures market improves, and the market shows a situation of strong oil and weak meal. The spot basis weakens as the futures oil price rises. Driven by the US biodiesel policy, the long - term upward elasticity of oil is large, and the price of CBOT soybeans is resistant [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The prices of rapeseed products continued to rise slightly. The positions of the main rapeseed oil contract increased, and the spread between September and January of rapeseed meal narrowed. The impact of factors such as foreign biodiesel and geopolitics has not been fully digested. There is a risk of dry weather in North American oilseed growing areas, and the oilseed futures price includes a weather premium. The price difference between domestic rapeseed oil and other oils is relatively high, and terminal consumption is not strong. The price increase of rapeseed oil mainly comes from the uncertainty of future imports. In general, the price of rapeseed products has room to rise in the medium - term but may face price pressure from the demand side in the short - term [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures rose and then fell. The bullish sentiment affected by wheat policy has weakened. The price difference between new wheat and corn is about 30 yuan/ton, and some feed enterprises are substituting. Corn traders expect future price increases. The supply in Shandong is at a low level and slightly increased today. The inventory in north and south ports is decreasing, and the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises is declining. The potential reduction of 1 million sows in China may affect feed consumption, and corn futures may continue to fluctuate [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures rebounded slightly with narrow market fluctuations, and the spot price remained stable. The government plans to reduce the number of sows by about 1 million to 3.95 million. Policy aims to stabilize pig prices, but the industry still faces large pressure of pig出栏 in the later period [8] Eggs - The near - month egg futures rebounded significantly, and the spot price was stable with a slight increase in some areas. The bottom - fishing sentiment was released as egg prices entered a low - level range, and the upcoming Mid - Autumn Festival demand and 618 promotion supported the price. However, due to the release of production capacity and the normal old - hen culling rate, the price increase is considered a rebound rather than a reversal [9]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Fats and Oils - Palm oil: Fundamentals in Malaysia are favorable with a 4% decline in production and a 14% increase in exports in the first half - month. BMD palm oil is in a stagnant and adjusted pattern near 4100 ringgit, with support around 4000 ringgit. Domestic palm oil has limited demand and is easily affected by the international market [1]. - Soybean oil: The US EPA's bio - diesel proposal is positive, and the May US soybean oil inventory was lower than expected. Domestic demand is in the off - season, but the low inventory and rising CBOT soybean prices support the market [1]. Meal - The market is affected by policies such as China - US trade negotiations and bio - diesel mixing requirements. Brazilian soybean sales progress has declined recently, and domestic soybean and meal inventories are rising. It is expected that the market will continue to fluctuate, and caution is advised when chasing long positions [3]. Corn - In the short term, corn prices are strong but the upward momentum weakens after reaching a high. In the long term, supply shortages and increasing consumption support price increases [5]. Pork - The spot price of pork is in a volatile structure. Supply - demand improvement is poor, and the upward drive is weak. However, there is support from the purchase and storage policy [9][10]. Sugar - Global sugar supply is becoming more abundant, and the original sugar is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern. Domestic sugar prices are also expected to be weak and volatile [14][15]. Cotton - The old - crop basis supports cotton prices, but the expected high yield of new cotton creates long - term pressure. Downstream demand has marginal improvement but lacks strong drivers. Short - term domestic cotton prices may fluctuate within a range [17]. Eggs - The national egg supply is large. It is expected that egg prices will decline slightly and then stabilize next week, with some factors potentially pulling up prices later [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Fats and Oils - **Soybean oil**: On June 17, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8320 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2509 was 7614 yuan/ton, up 0.50%; the basis was 706 yuan/ton, down 2.49% [1]. - **Palm oil**: The spot price in Guangdong was 8810 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; the futures price of P2509 was 8284 yuan/ton, up 0.31%; the basis was 526 yuan/ton, down 1.13% [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 9750 yuan/ton, up 1.04%; the futures price of O1509 was 9230 yuan/ton, up 0.50%; the basis was 520 yuan/ton, up 11.59% [1]. Meal - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2920 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of M2509 was 3074 yuan/ton, up 0.95%; the basis was - 154 yuan/ton, down 23.20% [3]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2610 yuan/ton, up 1.16%; the futures price of RM2509 was 2682 yuan/ton, up 0.41%; the basis was - 72 yuan/ton, up 20.88% [3]. Corn - **Corn**: On June 17, the futures price of Corn 2507 was 2364 yuan/ton, up 0.21%; the basis was 6 yuan/ton, down 71.43% [5]. - **Corn starch**: The futures price of Corn Starch 2507 was 2685 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the basis was 35 yuan/ton, up 12.90% [5]. Pork - **Futures**: The price of Live Pig 2507 was 13305 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Live Pig 2509 was 13815 yuan/ton, up 0.25%; the 7 - 9 spread was 510 yuan/ton, up 7.37% [9]. - **Spot**: The prices in Henan and Shandong were 14250 yuan/ton and 14500 yuan/ton respectively [9]. Sugar - **Futures**: The price of Sugar 2601 was 5554 yuan/ton, up 0.27%; the price of Sugar 2509 was 5691 yuan/ton, up 0.42%; ICE raw sugar was 16.45 cents/pound, down 3.35% [14]. - **Spot**: The price in Nanning was 6030 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; the price in Kunming was 5865 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [14]. Cotton - **Futures**: The price of Cotton 2509 was 13525 yuan/ton, down 0.04%; the price of Cotton 2601 was 13530 yuan/ton, unchanged; ICE US cotton was 67.64 cents/pound, down 0.60% [17]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 14762 yuan/ton, up 0.32%; the CC Index of 3128B was 14862 yuan/ton, up 0.28% [17]. Eggs - **Futures**: The price of the Egg 09 contract was 3649 yuan/500KG, down 0.55%; the price of the Egg 07 contract was 2855 yuan/500KG, down 1.35% [19]. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 2.77 yuan/jin, up 2.49% [19].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Douyi**: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - **Doupo**: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - **Douyou & Palm Oil**: ★★★ (Three stars for bullish trend) and ★★★ (Three stars for bullish trend) [1] - **Caipo**: ★☆☆ (One star, bullish bias) [1] - **Caiyou**: ★★★ (Three stars, bullish trend) [1] - **Corn**: ★★★ (Three stars, bullish trend) [1] - **Pigs**: ★★★ (Three stars, bullish trend) [1] - **Eggs**: ★★★ (Three stars, bullish trend) [1] Core Views - The prices of agricultural products are affected by multiple factors including international policies, geopolitical situations, and weather conditions. The US EPA biodiesel policy is generally bullish for the agricultural product market, especially for soybeans and related products [2][3][4]. - Different agricultural products have different trends and investment strategies. For example, long - term investment in vegetable oils should be considered on dips, while the strategy for Caiyou may need short - term adjustment to a wait - and - see approach [4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - **Douyi**: The domestic soybean market is oscillating strongly. The recent auction purchase session failed, and attention should be paid to the actual transaction of reserve soybeans in Heilongjiang. Short - term weather in the Northeast is favorable for crops. The US EPA biodiesel policy is bullish, and in the medium term, weather will be the main factor affecting prices [2]. - **Soybeans & Doupo**: Affected by the Israel - Iran war, crude oil, and the US biodiesel policy, US soybeans and Dalian Doupo are rising. The US soybean's good - to - excellent rate is slightly lower than expected. Future US weather is favorable for soybean growth. Domestic spot prices are rising, and the expected increase in crushing rate will lead to an increase in Doupo inventory. Uncertainties in Sino - US trade remain, and attention should be paid to the changes in the oil sector and future weather from June to August [3]. Oils - **Douyou & Palm Oil**: The domestic oil - meal ratio has retreated after a high. The US EPA biodiesel policy is bullish for the long - term trend of vegetable oils, and a long - term strategy of buying on dips is recommended [4]. - **Caiyou**: The main contract of Caiyou has increased in positions. Domestic Caiyou imports are limited, and the crushing rate is low. It is expected to gradually reduce inventory, but there is a risk of short - term upward resistance [6]. Others - **Caipo**: The main contract of Caipo has slightly reduced positions. The strategy is to maintain a bullish view [6]. - **Corn**: Affected by wheat policies, Dalian corn futures are oscillating. The price difference between new - season wheat and corn is narrowing, leading to substitution. Corn traders expect higher prices, and the supply in Shandong is low. North - South port inventories are decreasing, and the processing enterprise's operating rate is falling. Corn futures may continue to oscillate [7]. - **Pigs**: The September futures contract of pigs has slightly rebounded, and the far - month contracts are relatively weak. Spot prices are stable. Relevant departments have proposed a regulation target for sow inventory, and the policy aims to stabilize pig prices. However, the industry still faces large pressure on pig slaughter [8]. - **Eggs**: The near - month egg futures are falling again, showing a pattern of near - weak and far - strong. Spot prices are rebounding. The elimination of old chickens is accelerating, but there is no sign of a bottom - reversal yet. A rapid price rebound may be unfavorable for the elimination of old chickens and lead to price fluctuations [9].

| 豆棕价差 2509 -476 -354 -122 -34.46% | | --- | | 王滚辉 Z0019938 2025年6月17日 | | 更加 | | 6月16日 涨跌 | | 江苏一级 8300 8130 170 2.09% | | 7576 7444 132 期价 Y2509 1.77% | | 幕差 Y2509 724 ୧୫୧ 38 5.54% | | 菜豆油价差 现货 1350 1400 -20 -3.57% | | 仓单 17552 17552 0 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | 2509 1545 1524 21 1.38% 采豆油价差 | | 现价 广东24度 8790 8530 260 3.05% | | 期价 P2509 8258 7976 282 3.54% | | 某差 P2509 532 554 -22 -3.97% | | 现货墓差报价 广东6月 09+350 09 +400 -50 - | | 盘面进口成本 广州港9月 8825.0 8560.1 264.8 3.09% | | 2.94% | | 0.00% | | 菜籽油 | | 6月16日 6月13日 涨跌 旅 ...

2025/6/10 09:50 【国富期货早间看点】路透预计美⾖25/26 2.98 68% 20250610 【国富期货早间看点】路透预计美豆25/26年度期末库存为2.98亿蒲 美豆当周优良率为68%符合预期 20250610 2025年06月10日 07:34 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日流跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油08(BMD) | 3919.00 | 0. 20 | -0. 15 | | 布伦特08(ICE) | 67.13 | 0.72 | 0. 39 | | 美原油07(NYMEX) | 65. 38 | 0.94 | 0. 51 | | 美豆07(CBOT) | 1055. 75 | -0. 21 | 0. 02 | | 美豆箱07(CBOT) | 295. 20 | -0. 20 | 0. 24 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 47. 41 | -0. 04 | -0. 48 | | | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) 十日漆跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 98.99 ...