6月3日，经四川省人大常委会批准的《四川省人民政府关于2025年预算调整方案的报告》（下称四川预算调整报告）对外公开。根据 《报告》，财政部明确四川省2025年新增地方政府债务限额2699亿元，四川省今年将全部使用这一限额举债，以支持当地经济社会发 展。 随着财政部下达各省份全年发债额度，地方加快发债稳经济 随着地方密集收到财政部下达当地今年新增地方政府债务限额，地方依法调整预算，披露最新的举债额度。这将有利于地方加快发债， 将更多资金投向重大项目建设，推动经济平稳运行。 根据官方公开数据，与四川去年同期调整预算时新增的2538亿元债务限额相比，今年四川获得的这一额度增加了161亿元，增长约6.3%， 这一增速低于全国平均增速（约12.6%）。经济大省四川是发债大省，今年获得的新增债务限额占全国地方新增债务限额（5.2万亿元）比 重约5.2%，这与四川地方财政收入占全国地方财政收入比重相近，略高于当地经济总量全国占比（4.8%）。当地新增举债与经济增长、 财力相匹配。 在当前地方财政收支矛盾加大背景下，地方重大项目融资愈加依赖发行地方政府债券筹资，而地方加大发债也是今年积极财政政策更加 给力的一大体现。为了防 ...

Core Viewpoint - The fiscal policy in China has been actively implemented in the first four months of 2023, with a significant increase in fiscal expenditure compared to revenue, supporting economic resilience in April [2][3]. Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In the first four months of 2023, the total national broad fiscal revenue reached 93,202 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of approximately 1.3%, while broad fiscal expenditure was 119,717 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of about 7.2% [2][5]. - The fiscal revenue shortfall compared to expenditure was approximately 26,515 billion yuan, which represents a year-on-year increase of about 54% [2][5]. - The general public budget expenditure was 93,581 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, slightly above the annual budget growth rate of 4.4% [3][4]. Government Debt and Financing - The government has accelerated bond issuance to support fiscal expenditure, with net financing of government bonds reaching 48,500 billion yuan in the first four months, an increase of 35,800 billion yuan year-on-year [6][9]. - Local government bond issuance totaled approximately 35,354 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of about 84%, the highest in recent years [6][9]. Economic Support Measures - The fiscal expenditure has been directed towards social security, employment, and education, with social security and employment spending around 17,000 billion yuan, up 8.5% year-on-year, and education spending approximately 15,000 billion yuan, up 7.4% year-on-year [4][5]. - Infrastructure investment has shown stable growth at 5.8%, supported by the acceleration of local government special bond issuance [4][5]. Future Outlook - The central government has indicated a need for more proactive macroeconomic policies, including the acceleration of local government special bonds and long-term special bonds [9][12]. - Experts predict that the fiscal policy will continue to be a crucial support for economic resilience in the second quarter, with potential for new debt policies to be introduced later in the year [12][13].

Group 1: Implementation Effects of Active Fiscal Policy - Active fiscal policy has effectively responded to external shocks, maintaining an average economic growth rate of 9.9% from 2008 to 2010, compared to the global average of 1.7% during the same period[7] - From 2020 to 2023, China's average economic growth rate was 4.7%, significantly higher than the global average of 2.3%[7] - Social welfare spending has increased, with rural minimum living standards rising by 73.3% and urban low-income support increasing by 45.4% from 2017 to 2023[9] Group 2: Challenges of Active Fiscal Policy - The emphasis on current fiscal balance may impact long-term fiscal risks, with a consistent deficit rate below 3% reflecting a balanced fiscal approach[11] - The effectiveness of large-scale tax cuts is diminishing, with the macro tax burden needing stabilization as general public budget revenue as a percentage of GDP fell to 16.3% in 2024, down 5.1 percentage points since 2013[17] - The fiscal expenditure structure requires optimization, with a tendency to focus more on supply-side measures rather than demand-side support, leading to potential demand deficiencies[19] Group 3: Directions for Fiscal Policy Transformation - Transition from a balanced fiscal approach to a functional fiscal policy, potentially breaking the 3% deficit constraint to better support economic stability[21] - Fiscal policy objectives should balance short-term economic stability with long-term systemic challenges, addressing issues like population aging and digital economy risks[23] - Shift focus from income policies to expenditure policies, enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of fiscal measures[28]

Implementation Effects of Active Fiscal Policy - Active fiscal policy has effectively responded to external shocks, maintaining an average economic growth rate of 9.9% from 2008 to 2010, compared to the global average of 1.7%[5] - From 2020 to 2023, China's average economic growth rate was 4.7%, significantly higher than the global average of 2.3% during the same period[5] - Social welfare spending has increased, with rural minimum living standards rising by 73.3% and urban low-income standards increasing by 45.4% from 2017 to 2023[7] Challenges of Active Fiscal Policy - The emphasis on current fiscal balance may impact long-term economic risks, with the deficit rate rarely exceeding 3%[9] - The effectiveness of large-scale tax cuts is diminishing, with the general public budget revenue as a percentage of GDP dropping to 16.3% in 2024, down 5.1 percentage points from 2013[13] - The fiscal expenditure structure needs optimization, with a tendency to focus more on supply-side measures rather than demand-side support[14] Directions for Fiscal Policy Transformation - Shift from a balanced fiscal approach to a functional fiscal policy, potentially breaking the 3% deficit constraint to stimulate economic growth[16] - Enhance the focus on long-term challenges such as population aging and digital economy risks, ensuring fiscal policy addresses both short-term stability and long-term sustainability[18] - Transition from income policies to expenditure policies, emphasizing efficiency and effectiveness in fiscal measures[22]

Economic Performance - In April, China's tax revenue growth turned positive for the first time this year, increasing by approximately 1.9% year-on-year, which helped narrow the decline in general public budget revenue to -0.4% for the first four months of the year [1][3] - Despite a 21% decline in exports to the US, exports to ASEAN countries increased by 20.8%, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [2] Fiscal Policy - The general public budget expenditure for January to April reached 93,581 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, while government fund budget expenditure rose by 17.7% [6] - The government is expected to accelerate the implementation of existing fiscal policies, including the issuance of government bonds, to support economic stability [9][12] Real Estate Market - The land transfer income showed a significant recovery in April, with a year-on-year decline of only 11.4%, indicating a potential rebound in the real estate market [6][7] - The current real estate market is undergoing structural changes, with core cities experiencing a faster recovery, which may support future demand [7] Trade Relations - The US-China trade negotiations are set to take place within 90 days, which may lead to a significant reduction in tariffs, potentially stabilizing economic growth in the short term [8][9] - The ongoing tariff situation remains a concern, with tariffs on Chinese goods still exceeding 40%, necessitating careful monitoring of trade policies [10] Future Outlook - The economic growth for the second quarter is projected to be close to 5%, with the potential for fiscal stimulus measures to be adjusted based on trade negotiations [9][12] - The government is focusing on maintaining social stability and expanding domestic demand through targeted fiscal measures [10][12]

Group 1: Fiscal Policy Implementation - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasizes the need for more proactive fiscal policies, including increased spending intensity and accelerated government bond issuance to support economic development and social stability [1][2] - The fiscal deficit for this year is set at 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from last year, marking the highest deficit level in recent years [2] - The total public budget expenditure is projected to reach 29.7 trillion yuan, reflecting a 4.4% increase compared to last year, indicating further fiscal expansion [2] Group 2: Support for Domestic Demand - The issuance of special bonds and long-term treasury bonds is a key strategy to support domestic demand and economic growth, with a total of 4.4 trillion yuan in new local government special bonds planned for this year [4][6] - The first issuance of long-term special treasury bonds amounted to 1.3 trillion yuan, aimed at supporting major projects and enhancing consumer spending [4][6] - The government aims to boost consumer spending through initiatives like the "old-for-new" consumption program, which has seen significant sales growth in related sectors [5][6] Group 3: Policy Coordination and Effectiveness - The government is implementing a combination of policies, including tax reductions and fiscal incentives, to enhance the effectiveness of fiscal measures and support high-quality development in technology and manufacturing [8] - The central government has allocated 10.34 trillion yuan for transfer payments to local governments, a year-on-year increase of 8.4%, to enhance local fiscal capacity [8][9] - There is a focus on improving the efficiency of fund usage through better project management and collaboration among various departments [7][10]

积极财政政策正不断加力 "真金白银"的财政收入一直备受市场关注，直接关系政府履职和民生保障。今年以来财政收入降幅呈现 缩窄势头。 财政部数据显示，1—4月，全国一般公共预算收入80616亿元，同比下降0.4%。这一降幅较一季度 （-1.1%）有所缩窄。1—4月，全国政府性基金预算收入12586亿元，同比下降6.7%。这一降幅较一季度 （-11%）缩窄了4个多百分点。 全国一般公共预算收入是以税收收入为主体的财政收入，资金安排用于保障和改善民生、推动经济社会 发展等，因此备受关注。 根据财政部数据，今年前4个月约8万亿元全国一般公共预算收入中，全国税收收入约6.6万亿元，同比 下降2.1%，较一季度降幅（-3.5%）有所缩窄。其中4月份税收收入增速实现年内首次转正，同比增长约 1.9%。 税收被称为经济的"晴雨表"，经济决定税收。今年一季度中国国内生产总值按不变价格计算同比增长 5.4%。4月份国家统计局披露主要经济数据显示，经济顶住压力稳定增长，延续向新向好发展态势，这 也为税收收入转好提供基础。 另一方面，受经济下行压力影响，部分企业利润下滑，楼市总体依旧低迷，叠加物价低迷、基数因素 等，使得今年以来税收收 ...

Core Viewpoint - The formulation and implementation of the "15th Five-Year Plan" is crucial for advancing China's modernization and fulfilling the strategic deployments of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China [4]. Group 1: Planning and Decision-Making - Emphasis on scientific, democratic, and legal decision-making processes in the planning of the "15th Five-Year Plan" [3][4]. - The need for top-level design and public consultation to gather diverse opinions and experiences from the populace [4]. Group 2: Economic Context and Challenges - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is seen as a critical transitional phase for achieving socialist modernization by 2035, facing both strategic opportunities and risks [7][8]. - Key economic issues to consider during planning include growth, demand, and supply [7]. Group 3: High-Quality Development - The importance of high-quality development and the need to upgrade supply, demand, and efficiency structures to achieve effective qualitative and reasonable quantitative economic growth [8][9]. - The role of technological innovation and new industries, such as AI and biotechnology, in driving future growth [8]. Group 4: Urban-Rural Integration - Urban-rural integration is highlighted as a necessary requirement for modernization, aiming to enhance planning, construction, and governance at both urban and rural levels [9]. Group 5: Macroeconomic Governance - The necessity for improved macroeconomic governance and policy consistency in response to changing external conditions and internal economic demands [11][12]. - The ongoing evolution of fiscal policy since 2008, with a focus on optimizing its effectiveness for growth and risk management [12]. Group 6: Trust Industry Development - The trust industry is encouraged to focus on high-quality development paths and align its strategies with the broader goals of China's modernization [13].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 袁玲玲（微信 Yuen43） 报告摘要 节前一周，政策出台不多，主要关注以下内容。 （一）全国人大动态 ： 4 月 30 日，全国人大常委会表决通过民营经济促进法，该法将于 5 月 20 日 正式实施。 （二）总书记重要行程 ： 1 ） 4 月 29 日， 总书记在上海考察，并在上海"模速空间"大模型创新生 态社区调研，对上海积极发展人工智能取得的实效给予肯定。 2 ） 4 月 30 日，总书记主持召开部分 省区市"十五五"时期经济社会发展座谈会，强调谋划"十五五"时期经济社会发展，要"要坚定不移办好 自己的事，坚定不移扩大高水平对外开放"，"更加注重统筹发展和安全"，"把因地制宜发展新质生产 力摆在更加突出的战略位置"，"稳步推动共同富裕"等。 （三）发改委及财政部政策吹风 ： 1 ） 4 月 28 日 ， 国新办就稳就业稳经济推动高质量发展政策措 施有关情况举行发布会，发改委表示，" 提振消费方面 ，近期我们已经下达了今年第二批消费品以旧 换新资金，前两批一共下达超过 ...

国债期货日报 | 2025-05-07 中美摩擦与政策观望期内，国债期货涨跌分化 核心观点 市场分析 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：3月5日，十四届全国人大三次会议指出将实施更加积极的财政政策，今年赤字率拟4%， 一般公共预算支出规模29.7万亿元；拟发行超长期特别国债1.3万亿元，拟安排地方政府专项债券4.4万亿元，今年 合计新增政府债务总规模11.86万亿元；实施适度宽松的货币政策。 2）通胀：3月CPI同比下降0.1%。 资金面：（3）央行：2025-05-06，央行以固定利率1.5%、数量招标方式开展了4050亿元7天的逆回购操作，操作利 率为1.5%。（4）货币市场：主要期限回购利率1D、7D、14D和1M分别为1.702%、1.707%、1.737% 和1.732%，回 购利率近期回落。 市场面：（5）收盘价：2025-05-06，TS、TF、T、TL收盘价分别为102.31元、106.06元、109.05元、120.97元。涨跌 幅：TS、TF、T和TL涨跌幅分别为-0.06%、-0.04%、0.00%和 0.11%。（7）TS、TF、T和TL净基差均值分别为-0.032 元、-0.055元、-0.1 ...