见闻财经日历 WSCN Economic Calendar W 华尔街见闻 | 时间 地区 | 内容 | 预期 前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 7月14日 周一 | | | | | 数据 国内 | 10:00 中国 6月进口同比(按美元计) | | -3.4% | | | 10:00 中国 6月出口同比(按美元计) | | 4.8% | | 国内 | 10:00 国新办举行新闻发布会介绍 2025年上半年进 出口情况 | | | | 事件 | 15:00 国新办举行新闻发布会，请中国人民银行副 | | | | | 行长邹澜介绍2025年上半年金融统计数据情况 | | | | 海外 | 特朗普称将发布有关俄罗斯的"重大声明" | | | | 7月15日 周二 | | | -10.7% | | 国内 | 10:00 中国 1至6月全国房地产开发投资 | | | | | 10:00 中国 6月城镇调查失业率 | | 5% | | | 10:00 中国 1至6月城镇固定资产投资同比 | | 3.7% | | | 10:00 中国 6月规模以上工业增加值同比 | | 5.8% | ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Strong economic data and a rebound in the US dollar index have put pressure on gold prices, leading to a drop below key support levels [1] - Geopolitical tensions and rising inflation concerns have increased safe-haven demand, causing gold prices to rebound after hitting a low [1] - Technical indicators show short-term support for gold, with upward momentum in moving averages, but resistance remains above [3] Group 2: Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices have surged due to technical breakthroughs, inflows from trade war-related safe-haven investments, and expectations of a dovish Federal Reserve [4] - Key resistance for silver is at $37.62, with a potential breakout leading to increased buying interest, while $40 serves as the next psychological resistance [4] - The correlation between silver and gold fundamentals is strong, and the bullish sentiment for silver is expected to continue as long as trade tensions and Fed rate cut expectations persist [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, in the short - term, the stock index discount has returned to an extreme level. In the medium - to - long - term, the report maintains the judgment of going long on the economy. It is recommended to allocate long positions in forward contracts of various varieties on dips [2]. - For treasury bond futures, it is recommended to hedge T and TL contracts on rallies for medium - to - long - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On July 10, most of the four major A - share stock indices rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48% to 3509.68 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.47% to 10631.13 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.22% to 2189.58 points, and the Sci - tech Innovation 50 Index fell 0.32% to 979.99 points. Market turnover was 15,151 billion yuan, a decrease of 124 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, real estate (+3.19%), petroleum and petrochemicals (+1.54%), and steel (+1.44%) led the gains; automobiles (-0.62%), media (-0.54%), and national defense and military industry (-0.41%) led the losses. From the perspective of market strength, IH>IC>IF>IM. The number of rising, flat, and falling stocks was 2,945, 192, and 2,278 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 61, - 150, - 9, and 221 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +57, +17, - 43, and - 31 billion yuan respectively [2]. - **Basis and Annualized Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 102.57, 78.65, 30.82, and 14.93 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 14.82%, - 12.17%, - 7.12%, and - 5.02% respectively. The three - year historical quantiles were 14%, 10%, 18%, and 23% respectively [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Allocate long positions in forward contracts of various varieties on dips [2]. (2) Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On July 10, the yields of treasury bond futures rose across the board. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.367, up 2.53 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.505, up 3.13 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.601, up 2.16 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 1.932, up 1.9 bps [2]. - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2509 contract. The CTD bonds, yield changes, corresponding net basis, and IRR of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are provided [2]. - **Funding Situation**: The central bank injected 900 billion yuan and withdrew 572 billion yuan in open - market operations, with a net injection of 328 billion yuan [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hedge T and TL contracts on rallies for medium - to - long - term [2]. (3) Economic Data - **High - Frequency Data**: Recent high - frequency data shows that the real estate market has contracted, while the other four indicators are similar to the same period [10]. - **Domestic Meso - level Data Tracking**: Based on the comparison of meso - level data of each module with the same period in the past five years (year - on - year and month - on - month), a scoring system shows the real estate market's contraction [11][13].

报告类型 股指日评 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 日期 2025 年 7 月 10 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 7 月 9 日，万得全 A 开盘震荡上行，午后调头回落，收跌 0.13%，超 6 成个股 下跌；指数现货方面，沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘分别下跌 0.18%、 0.26%、0.41%、0.27%，大盘蓝筹股表现更优。指数期货方面，IF、IH 表现强于 现货，主力合约分别收跌 0.15%、0.14%，IC、IM 表现弱于现货，主力合约分别收 跌 0.59%、0.35%（按前一交易 ...

Report Overview - The report is a financial futures early morning newsletter by China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. dated July 10, 2025, covering stock index futures, treasury bond futures and economic data [1][2] 分组1: Report Highlights - **Stock Index Futures**: On the 7th, most of the four major A - share stock indexes adjusted. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.13% to 3493.05 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.06% to 10581.8 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.16% to 2184.67 points, and the STAR 50 Index fell 0.89% to 983.11 points. Market turnover was 152.74 billion yuan, an increase of 5.28 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and commercial and retail had the highest increases, while non - ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and electronics had the largest declines. From the perspective of market strength, IF>IH>IM>IC. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 1856/236/3324 respectively. The net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were - 11.9 billion, - 16.7 billion, 3.4 billion, and 25.2 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 22.4 billion, - 12.8 billion, + 14.7 billion, and + 20.4 billion yuan respectively. The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts were 101.47, 76.89, 29.6, and 16.12 points respectively, and the annualized basis yields were - 14.18%, - 11.53%, - 6.62%, and - 5.25% respectively, with three - year historical quantiles of 17%, 11%, 19%, and 22% respectively. The trading strategy is to recommend buying IF, IC, and IM forward contracts on dips [2] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On the 7th, most of the yields of treasury bond futures declined. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.334, up 0.66 bps from the previous day; the implied interest rate of the five - year bond was 1.464, down 3.53 bps; the implied interest rate of the ten - year bond was 1.573, down 0.37 bps; and the implied interest rate of the thirty - year bond was 1.906, down 0.46 bps. In terms of cash bonds, the CTD bonds, yield changes, corresponding net basis, and IRR of different - term treasury bond futures were provided. In terms of the capital side, the central bank's currency investment was 7.55 billion yuan, currency withdrawal was 9.85 billion yuan, and the net withdrawal was 2.3 billion yuan. The trading strategy is to suggest short - term long and long - term short, buying T and TL on dips in the short - term and hedging T and TL on rallies in the long - term [2] - **Economic Data**: High - frequency data shows that the recent real estate market sentiment has contracted, while the other four items are similar to the same period [10] 分组2: Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, in the short - term, the stock index discount has returned to an extreme position; in the medium - to - long - term, the report maintains the judgment of going long on the economy, and currently using stock index long positions as a substitute has certain excess returns [2] - For treasury bond futures, the long - end long - position strength is strong, betting on a further decline in future policy interest rates [2] 分组3: Summary by Directory (一) Stock Index Futures Spot Market Performance - The report provides detailed performance data of various stock index futures contracts such as IC, IF, IH, and IM, including code, name, price change percentage, current price, price change, trading volume, trading value, open interest, daily increase in open interest, settlement price, basis, and annualized basis yield [4] (二) Treasury Bond Futures Spot Market Performance - The report presents the performance data of treasury bond futures contracts (TS, TF, T, TL) and corresponding spot bonds, including code, name, price change percentage, current price, trading volume, trading value, open interest, daily increase in open interest, settlement price, net basis, CTD bond implied interest rate, and spot bond yield [6] (三) Economic Data - High - frequency data indicates that the real estate market sentiment has recently contracted, and the other four items are similar to the same period [10]

Report Overview - The report is a financial futures morning newsletter released by China Merchants Futures Co., Ltd. on July 9, 2025, covering the market performance of stock index futures and treasury bond futures on July 8, 2025, along with trading strategies [1][2][3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the discount of stock index futures has returned to extreme levels; in the long - and medium - term, it is recommended to go long on the economy by buying long - term contracts of IF, IC, and IM at low prices. For near - term contracts, due to the potential decline of micro - cap stocks, caution is advised for IC and IM indices. For treasury bond futures, it is recommended to take short - term long positions and long - term short positions, buying T and TL contracts at low prices in the short - term and hedging at high prices in the long - term [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market Performance - **Market Performance**: On July 8, A - share major indices all rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.7% to 3497.48 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.47% to 10588.39 points, the ChiNext Index up 2.39% to 2181.08 points, and the STAR 50 Index up 1.4% to 991.95 points. Market turnover was 1474.6 billion yuan, an increase of 247.5 billion yuan from the previous day. Among industry sectors, communication (+2.89%), power equipment (+2.3%), and electronics (+2.27%) led the gains; public utilities (-0.37%), banks (-0.24%), and household appliances (+0.21%) led the losses. In terms of market strength, IC > IM > IF > IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 4282/155/979 respectively. Net inflows of institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were 10.5 billion, - 3.9 billion, - 11.3 billion, and 4.8 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +14.7 billion, +5.9 billion, - 9.6 billion, and - 11.1 billion yuan respectively [2] - **Futures Basis and Yield**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 98.1, 71.34, 34.05, and 19.59 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 13.2%, - 10.29%, - 7.34%, and - 6.15% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 20%, 14%, 17%, and 20% respectively [2] - **Contract - Specific Data**: Detailed data on various stock index futures contracts such as IC2507, IC2508, etc., including price, trading volume, open interest, basis, and annualized basis yield, are provided [6] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Market Performance - **Yield Changes**: On July 8, the yields of treasury bond futures declined. Among active contracts, the implied interest rates of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 1.332%, 1.503%, 1.578%, and 1.914% respectively, with increases of 1.99bps, 5.57bps, 1.96bps, and 1.51bps from the previous day [3] - **CTD Bond Data**: For the current active 2509 contract, data on the cheapest - to - deliver (CTD) bonds of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, including yield changes, net basis, and implied repo rate (IRR), are provided [3][4] - **Funding Situation**: The central bank injected 6.9 billion yuan and withdrew 13.1 billion yuan through open - market operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 6.2 billion yuan [4] - **Contract - Specific Data**: Detailed data on various treasury bond futures contracts such as TS2509, TS2512, etc., including price, trading volume, open interest, net basis, and CTD bond implied interest rate, are provided [7] 3.3 Economic Data - **High - Frequency Data**: High - frequency data shows that the real - estate market has recently contracted, while the other four areas are similar to the same period [10] - **Short - Term Interest Rate Changes**: Data on short - term capital interest rates such as SHIBOR overnight, DR001, SHIBOR one - week, and DR007, including current prices, previous - day prices, prices one week ago, and prices one month ago, are provided [10]

Global Asset Price Performance - Global bond yields have generally risen, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increasing by 6 basis points due to strong employment data reducing rate cut expectations [1] - Major global stock markets showed mixed performance, with the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices rising by 1.7%, 2.3%, and 1.6% respectively [1][3] - Commodity prices for gold and crude oil have rebounded this week, while the U.S. dollar index fell by 0.1% [1] Major Central Bank Monetary Policies - Strong employment data has led to a decrease in rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, with the probability of a rate cut in July dropping from 20.7% to 4.7% [4] - The Bank of Japan's governor indicated that while inflation is above the 2% target, the underlying inflation rate remains slightly below target, reducing expectations for rate hikes [4] U.S. Economic Dynamics - In June, non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, with government jobs contributing half of the new positions, while private sector job growth slowed significantly [12] - The unemployment rate decreased to 4.1%, but the labor force participation rate fell to 62.3%, indicating a trend of cooling employment [12] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49, but new orders continued to contract for the fifth consecutive month due to tariff policies [12] Economic Dynamics in Other Regions - Eurozone inflation has shown signs of stabilizing, with the CPI rising slightly to 2%, and the ECB is expected to consider a rate cut by the end of the year [29] - In the UK, a failed welfare reform has raised concerns about potential tax increases and borrowing, leading to a significant rise in long-term bond yields [29] - Japan's consumer spending increased by 4.7% year-on-year in May, driven by higher expenditures on automobiles and dining out [30]

芳烃下游及终端开⼯下滑，化⼯整体供 需变化较⼩ 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-07-04 伊朗外交部长在媒体上公开表示"伊朗仍致力于《不扩散核武器条 约》及其保障协定"，他表示，伊朗未来与国际原子能机构的合作将经由 最高国家安全委员会来进行。这显然边际减轻了市场对地缘的恐慌情绪。 数据显示，美国6月新增非农就业人数连续第四个月超出预期，失业率下 降，这表明美国劳动力市场依然健康。原油近端需求尚可，供给增量也未 带来库存的大幅攀升，油价延续震荡整理。 板块逻辑： 化工板块品种之间差异较大。苯乙烯自身开工率变化较小，但几个下 游无一例外都出现了开工率的环比下行。PTA产业链也出现了下游及终端 开工率的大幅下滑，聚酯开工下降0.8%，织机和加弹开工率分别下滑4% 和7%。油化工自身供需在走弱，煤化工甲醇则受到西北装置检修的提振。 化工品整体本周都出现了基差的收缩，整体仍是震荡格局。工信部召开会 议表示，依法依规、综合智利光伏行业低价无序竞争，这对国内商品都有 些许提振。 原油：周度整体再度去库，欧美经济数据较好油价延续震荡 LPG：盘面回归交易基本面宽松， ...

波兰央行行长：未来货币政策委员会的决策将取决于即将公布的经济数据。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) has made progress in controlling inflation but will not declare the task complete and will continue to monitor developments closely [1] Group 1 - ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized the need for ongoing vigilance despite achievements in inflation control [1] - The ECB possesses sufficient tools and flexibility to maintain stability in the face of potential financial market volatility [1] - Future policy adjustments by the ECB will be entirely based on economic data and inflation performance, without any pre-commitment to interest rate direction [1]