新永安期货市场快讯 XIN YONGAN Futures Express 2025年6月10日星期二 www.yafco.com.hk 六月假期交易休市时间安排： | 交易所 | 品种 | 6.19 | 交易所 | 品种 | 6.2 | 6.27 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CME | 农产品 | 休市 | BMD | 所有产品 指数产品 | 休市 正常 | 休市 正常 | | | 生猪、活牛 | 休市 | | | | | | | 利率及债券 | 于20日凌晨01点提前收盘 | | | | | | | 外汇 | 正常 | HKEX | 金属产品 | 正常 | 正常 | | | 指数 | 于20日凌晨01点提前收盘 | | MSCI指数 | 正常 | 正常 | | | 金属 | 于20日凌晨02 点30分提前收盘 | | 货币产品 | 正常 | 正常 | | | | | | 橡胶TSR20 | 正常 | 正常 | | | 能源 | 于20日凌晨02 点30分提前收盘 | | 日经指数 | 正常 | 正常 正常 | | | 可可、咖啡、11号糖 ...

Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Data - Goldman Sachs' global equity systematic macro strategy indicates a slight increase in positions, nearing historical median levels, with an expected additional investment of approximately $20 billion in the next month, half of which will flow into the U.S. market [1] - The strong employment report highlights the resilience of hard economic data, with May non-farm payrolls increasing by 139,000 and the unemployment rate remaining at 4.2%. However, a softening of data is anticipated in the coming months [2] - Investor sentiment reflects optimism regarding growth prospects, with cyclical stocks outperforming defensive stocks, suggesting a projected real GDP growth of about 2% in the U.S. [2] Group 2: Economic Growth Expectations - Goldman Sachs' economists predict a real GDP growth rate of approximately 1% over the next four quarters, with concerns from clients about market rebounds and growth pricing risks before data weakens [2] - The correlation between the S&P 500 index returns and soft data is currently higher than that with hard data, indicating that a recovery in soft data could support stock market returns even if hard data weakens [3][6] - The basket of economically sensitive stocks shows slightly lower growth expectations compared to cyclical and defensive stock combinations, with high operating leverage stocks trading at a significant discount to low operating leverage stocks [3] Group 3: Currency and Fiscal Risks - The U.S. dollar index has declined by approximately 6% year-to-date, reversing gains from April 2024, with investors perceiving increased two-way risks surrounding the currency [12] - Goldman Sachs has adjusted its euro/dollar forecasts to 1.17, 1.20, and 1.25 for 3, 6, and 12 months respectively, reflecting concerns over fiscal sustainability amid a large and persistent U.S. fiscal deficit [12] - The relationship between fiscal expansion and the dollar's performance is mixed, with increased net issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds typically benefiting the dollar due to structural foreign demand, although concerns over fiscal sustainability may alter this dynamic [13]

随着股市从春季低点大幅反弹，部分华尔街专业人士认为最糟糕的阶段可能已经结束，夏季交易时段或 将迎来相对平静的行情。这一切始于特朗普政府宣布所谓"解放日"对等关税政策后市场的戏剧性反转。 但更广阔的宏观背景依然乐观。摩根士丹利董事总经理兼高级投资组合经理安德鲁·斯利蒙（Andrew Slimmon）表示，"我确实认为二季度经济将再次带来上行惊喜"。他列举了强劲的盈利预期和稳定的经 济表现，"即使市场重返历史高点，我也不会感到意外"。 不过斯利蒙警告，当前环境已不如4月初有利——当时股市刚从大幅下跌中反弹且波动性高企，即便是 轻微利好也能引发强劲的V型复苏。但在基准指数上涨20%、波动率指数趋稳后，市场对负面消息的脆 弱性可能上升。 （文章来源：金十数据） Prime Capital Financial副首席投资官威尔·麦高夫（Will McGough）同样认为市场可能在夏季保持安静。 他指出，即便是近期市场最关注的长期美国国债收益率，也基本维持在4%至5%的区间内波动，尽管华 盛顿的噪音持续不断。"我现在的建议是享受夏天"，麦高夫称，"目前没有什么因素能推动市场实质性 突破当前区间"。 当然，未来数月仍不乏可能 ...

印度央行行长：未来的利率决策将取决于经济数据，保持中性立场意味着利率可能出现任何方向的变 动。 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - On June 5, A-share's four major stock indices rose across the board: Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.23% to 3384.1 points, Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.58% to 10203.5 points, ChiNext Index rose 1.17% to 2048.62 points, and STAR 50 Index rose 1.04% to 996.41 points. Market turnover was 1317 billion yuan, an increase of 139.5 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - In terms of industry sectors, communication (+2.62%), electronics (+2.31%), and computer (+2.12%) led the gains; beauty care (-3.07%), textile and apparel (-1.81%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (-1.79%) led the losses [2]. - In terms of market strength, IM>IC>IF>IH, and the number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 2675/197/2540 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale, and retail investors had net inflows of 38, - 41, - 26, and 30 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +14, - 15, +19, and - 18 billion yuan respectively [2]. - For Treasury bond futures on June 5, most yields declined. Among active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond was 1.356, down 2.79bps from the previous day; the five - year bond was 1.495, down 1.21bps; the ten - year bond was 1.658, down 0.08bps; and the thirty - year bond was 2.012, up 2.99bps [3]. 2. Futures Basis and Yield - The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH was 158.21, 118.37, 64.36, and 49.13 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 20.04%, - 16.03%, - 12.97%, and - 14.26% respectively, and three - year historical quantiles of 4%, 5%, 1%, and 3% respectively. The futures - spot price difference remained at a low level [2]. 3. Trading Strategies - **Stock Index Futures**: Recently, small - cap stock indices have had a deep discount, presumably due to the expansion of neutral product scale this year. Since the bond bull market has not restarted, the proportion of short positions in neutral products may still be high, so the deep discount may continue, leading to market fluctuations. A short - cycle band strategy is recommended. In the medium - to - long term, it is recommended to go long on the economy. It is recommended to allocate IF, IC, and IM forward contracts on dips. For near - month contracts, there is a risk of a decline in micro - cap stocks, which may drag down the IC and IM indices, so caution is advised [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The current bond market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, but this pattern is expected to change. In June, the maturity scale of government bonds increases, and the net supply rhythm may slow down. In July, there is a possibility of a reduction in the long - term liability cost of insurance. The domestic market risk preference has returned to a defensive style, which may increase the demand for bond market allocation. For futures, the CTD bond price of near - month contracts is low, and the recent IRR level is high, so short - sellers have a strong willingness to deliver, putting pressure on near - month contract prices and causing far - month contracts to have a premium. T and TL positions are increasing, while TF and TS positions are decreasing, indicating strong long - term bullish power, betting on a further decline in policy interest rates. It is recommended to be short - term long and long - term short, buying T and TL on dips in the short term and hedging T and TL on rallies in the long term [4]. 4. Specific Market Data - **Stock Index Futures and Spot Markets**: Detailed data on the performance of various stock index futures contracts (such as IC2506 - IC2512, IF2506 - IF2512, IH2506 - IH2512, IM2506 - IM2512) and their corresponding spot indices (such as CSI 500, SSE 50, etc.) are provided, including price, trading volume, open interest, basis, and basis annualized yield [6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures and Spot Markets**: Data on the performance of various Treasury bond futures contracts (such as TS2506 - TS2512, TF2506 - TF2512, T2506 - T2512, TL2506 - TL2512) and their corresponding spot bonds (such as 250006, 250003, etc.) are presented, including price, trading volume, open interest, net basis, and CTD bond implied interest rate [7]. - **Short - term Funding Rates**: The current, previous, one - week - ago, and one - month - ago prices of SHIBOR overnight, DR001, SHIBOR one - week, and DR007 are shown, indicating relatively stable short - term funding rates [11]. 5. Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that in May, the prosperity of imports and exports and social activities declined, while the prosperity of the real estate market increased [11].

招商期货有限公司 市场表现：6 月 4 日，A 股四大股指全线上涨，其中上证指数上涨 0.42%，报收 3376.2 点；深成指 上涨 0.87%，报收 10144.58 点；创业板指上涨 1.11%，报收 2024.93 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.45%， 报收 986.11 点。市场成交 11,774 亿元，较前日增加 136 亿元。行业板块方面，美容护理(+2.63%)， 综合(+2.53%)，纺织服饰(+2.41%)涨幅居前；交通运输(-0.58%)，国防军工(-0.24%)，公用事业 (-0.12%)跌幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 3,964/211/1,237。沪深两 市，机构、主力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 23、-26、-45、48 亿元，分别变动+49、+40、-27、 -62 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 160.37、120.01、65.54 与 47.42 点，基差年化收益率 分别为-19.84%、-15.84%、-12.83%与-13.35%，三年期历史分位数分别为 4%、5%、1%及 5%。 期- ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index - defensive wait - and - see; Treasury bonds - short - term optimistic, currently in a volatile state [1][5] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - temporary wait - and - see; Iron ore - temporary wait - and - see; Coking coal and coke - volatile operation [1][7][8] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - cautious trading within a range; Aluminum - light - position short - selling recommended; Nickel - wait - and - see or short - selling on rallies; Tin - weakly volatile; Gold - trading within a range; Silver - trading within a range [1][11][15] - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC - weakly volatile; Soda ash - short - selling strategy for the 01 contract; Caustic soda - weakly volatile; Styrene - weakly volatile; Rubber - weakly volatile; Urea - weakly volatile; Methanol - weakly volatile; Polyolefins - wide - range volatility [1][20][22] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - volatile rebound; Apples - volatile operation; PTA - range - bound volatility [1][33][34] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs - short - selling on rallies; Eggs - short - selling on rallies; Corn - operating within the range of [2300, 2360]; Soybean meal - short - term operation within the range of [2900, 3000], long - term buying on dips; Oils - short - selling on rallies [1][35][40] Core Views - Overall, the market is affected by multiple factors such as international politics, trade policies, and supply - demand fundamentals. Most varieties are in a volatile state, and investors need to pay attention to various factors and adjust their investment strategies accordingly. For example, the impact of US economic data and tariff policies on the financial and commodity markets, and the influence of supply - demand relationships on the prices of various commodities [5][21][36] Summary by Category Macro Finance - **Index**: Due to factors such as weak US economic data, geopolitical issues, and tariff disturbances, the index is expected to continue its structural market of volatility and sector rotation before the trading volume effectively increases [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is currently in a low - volatility environment, driven by news. The pattern of trading based on NCDs may continue. It is recommended that allocation portfolios buy on dips, while trading portfolios have limited short - term operation space [5] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: Although the price rebounded on Wednesday due to the increase in coking coal prices, the demand is expected to weaken seasonally. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, and the inventory may accumulate slightly. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [7] - **Iron Ore**: The disk is volatile and strong. The supply and demand fundamentals have little impact, and it is mainly affected by macro news. The port inventory is expected to continue to decline, and the disk is expected to be volatile [7][8] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is affected by factors such as safety inspections and weak demand, and the price may be weakly volatile. The coke market has not resolved its supply - demand contradictions, and the price still has downward pressure [8][9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The macro - level disturbances are weakening, but the mine - end disturbances continue. The supply shortage pressure is difficult to change, and the consumption is relatively stable. The price is expected to be volatile before the holiday [11] - **Aluminum**: The supply of bauxite is currently loose, but the impact of mine - end disturbances will gradually appear. The demand is weakening, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [13] - **Nickel**: The cost is firm, but the medium - and long - term supply is excessive. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and interval trading is recommended [15][16] - **Tin**: The supply and demand gap is improving, but it is affected by US tariff policies. The price is expected to be volatile, and interval trading is recommended [17] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies, inflation data, and central bank policies, the prices are expected to be strongly volatile, and cautious interval trading is recommended [18][19] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is under pressure, the demand is insufficient, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to tariff negotiations and domestic stimulus policies [20][21] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is relatively sufficient in the medium term, and the demand increment is limited. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as alumina production and maintenance [22][23] - **Styrene**: The supply is expected to increase, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as crude oil prices and pure benzene imports [24][25] - **Rubber**: The demand has not improved significantly, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to inventory and downstream demand [26][27] - **Urea**: The supply is high, the demand is limited, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as coal prices and fertilizer demand [28][29] - **Methanol**: The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is relatively stable. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as coal prices and methanol - to - olefins start - up rates [30][31] - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be widely volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as new capacity investment and downstream demand [31][32] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is increasing, the downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. A short - selling strategy for the 01 contract is recommended [32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton**: Although the global supply - demand is still loose, the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations is expected to drive the price to rebound [33] - **Apples**: The market is stable, and the price is expected to be volatile [33] - **PTA**: Affected by the decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of downstream demand, the price is under short - term pressure and is expected to be range - bound [34] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [35][36] - **Eggs**: The short - term demand is weak, and the medium - term supply is expected to increase. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [37][38] - **Corn**: The short - term price has support, and the medium - and long - term supply - demand is tightening, but the price increase is limited by substitutes. It is recommended to buy on dips within the range [39][40] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term supply is increasing, and the price is expected to be range - bound. The medium - and long - term price is expected to be strong due to cost and weather factors. It is recommended to operate within the range in the short term and buy on dips after mid - June [40][41] - **Oils**: Different oil varieties have different supply - demand situations. The short - term prices are expected to be range - bound, and interval trading is recommended. The strategy of expanding the spread of some varieties is temporarily suspended [41][46]

| CTEERING | 日度策略参考 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 特给省调言:ZOOULI | 从业资格号:F0251925 | 行业板块 | 趋势研判 | 品种 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | | 当前国内政策对股指的驱动力度不强,海外因素主导股指的短期 | 波动。鉴于关税政策的不确定性仍然较大,期指建议观望为主。 | | | | | | | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 国债 | 震荡 | 宏观金融 | 空间。 | | | | 避险升温提振金价;中长期上涨逻辑仍旧坚实。 | 看多 | 車金 | 跟随黄金,且受益于弹性,显著补涨。 | T 白银 | | | | 美国关税政策反复,风险偏好承压,但铜基本面仍有支撑,短期 | 震荡 | 价格高位震荡。总 | | | | | | 近期国内电解铝社会库存持续下滑,现货升水走高,电解铝低库 | 存对铝价仍有支撑。但亲观情绪反复,且国内铝下游需求转淡, | 開汤 | 铝价或震荡偏弱运行。 | | | | | 氧化铝现货价格持续走高,期货贴水明显, ...

北京时间周三（6月4日），亚欧交易时段，在周二上涨超过0.5%之后，美元指数在周三的欧洲时段仍 处于略高于99.00的盘整阶段。白银价格在周一5%的涨幅中有所回落，周二小幅下跌0.52%，白银交易 于34.50美元附近，守住本周高点。美国乐观的经济数据将白银推低至34.00美元以下，但多头出现并提 振了无息白银。美国经济日历将包括5月份的私营部门就业数据和ISM服务业采购经理人指数报告。此 外，加拿大央行将宣布货币政策决定。最后，美联储将在美国时段晚些时候发布其褐皮书。 今日白银价格最新查询（2025年6月4日） | 名称 | 最新价 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 现货白银 | 34.50 | 美元/盎司 | | 白银t+d | 8441 | 元/千克 | | 纸白银 | 7.963 | 元/克 | | 沪银主力 | 8463 | 元/千克 | 【基本面解析】 5月HCOB欧元区服务业PMI终值从初值48.9上修至49.7，但仍低于4月的50.1，为2024年11月以来首次跌 破荣枯线，显示服务业活动轻微萎缩。需求持续疲软，新业务量连续第四个月下滑，且降幅创六个月最 大。国际订单（ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The negative impact on the bond market caused by the unexpected outcome of the China-US tariff negotiations has basically been digested. The bond market is now driven by the capital and fundamental aspects. In the short term, there are no clear positive or negative factors, so the bond market is expected to continue its volatile consolidation pattern. Attention should be paid to subsequent high-frequency economic data and capital flow changes. Given the recent significant underperformance of short-term bond futures compared to long-term ones, there may be no high - quality short - term trading opportunities, and the risk of a correction in long - term bonds due to short - term spread adjustments should be watched out for [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Conditions - **Futures Closing Prices and Volumes**: T, TF, and TS main contracts closed down 0.03%, 0.04%, and 0.04% respectively, while the TL main contract closed up 0.03%. T, TF, and TL main contract volumes decreased by 19,601, 7,839, and 10,208 respectively, and the TS main contract volume increased by 2,847 [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads showed upward or downward trends, such as the TL2509 - 2506 spread increasing by 0.08 and the T2509 - 2506 spread decreasing by 0.01 [2] - **Futures Positions**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract positions decreased by 2,657, 1,366, 2,271, and 611 respectively. The net short positions of T, TF, and TL decreased, while that of TS increased [2] 3.2 Bond Information - **CTD Bond Net Prices**: Some CTD bond net prices rose and some fell, for example, 240020.IB (4y) rose by 0.1243 and 250007.IB (6y) fell by 0.0644 [2] - **Active Bond Yields**: Yields of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y active bonds decreased by 2.00bp, 3.00bp, 1.75bp, 2.00bp, and 1.25bp respectively [2] 3.3 Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: Silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day rates decreased by 14.56bp, 17.00bp, and 13.00bp respectively. Shibor overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day rates decreased by 6.10bp, 10.20bp, and 16.00bp respectively [2] - **LPR Rates**: 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged [2] 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of open - market operations was 454.5 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 830 billion yuan, and the net回笼 was 375.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage point; and comprehensive PMI was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points [2] - The US accused China of violating the consensus of the Geneva economic and trade talks, and China firmly rejected the unreasonable accusation, urging the US to correct its wrong actions [2] - In May, the central bank conducted 700 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Key Data to Watch - June 4th, 20:15: US May ADP employment (in ten thousand people) - June 4th, 22:00: US May ISM non - manufacturing PMI - June 5th, 20:15: European Central Bank's interest rate decision - June 5th, 20:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 31st (in ten thousand people) [3]