UNforex 1 月 26 日讯 随着全球市场风险偏好再度走弱，黄金多头动能明显增强。周一亚洲时段早盘， 现货黄金强势突破5000美元/盎司这一关键心理关口后继续上行，盘中最高触及5085美元，价格运行区 间被整体抬升，刷新历史高位边界。 从阶段性走势来看，金价延续了上周形成的强势格局。上周累计涨幅超过8%，年初以来涨幅已接近 20%。在较短时间内先后突破4000美元与5000美元两大整数关口，价格运行斜率明显上移，反映出资金 对避险资产的配置意愿仍在持续强化。 近期金价快速上行的核心背景，仍指向地缘政治与贸易政策不确定性的集中释放。围绕格陵兰岛主权及 北极战略利益的问题，美国与欧洲盟友之间的分歧持续发酵，相关表态已对跨大西洋关系及市场风险偏 好构成扰动。 与此同时，特朗普再次将贸易议题推至市场焦点。本周末，其针对加拿大与中国贸易合作发出强硬警 告，并威胁对加拿大商品加征最高达100%的关税。相关言论迅速放大了市场对全球贸易体系再度承压 的担忧情绪，避险资金随之加速流向贵金属资产。在多重政治变量交织之下，黄金的风险对冲属性被重 新评估，其对传统利率与美元因素的敏感度阶段性下降。 政策层面，美联储即将结束本周 ...

周一亚洲交易时段，纽元/美元上涨约0.3%，汇价接近0.5975。从短期走势来看，这一轮上涨更多是由美元走弱推动，而非单一利 好因素刺激。 先看美元方面。随着美联储货币政策周的开启，市场整体情绪偏谨慎，美元承压明显。衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数 （DXY）下跌0.4%，回落至97.00附近，刷新了四个多月以来的低点。这表明市场对美元的短期信心仍然不足。 从货币政策角度来看，美联储的立场也是美元偏弱的重要原因之一。根据CME联邦储备系统观察工具，市场几乎已经完全消化了 美联储将在周三维持利率在3.50%-3.75%区间不变的预期。更关键的是，美联储在最近三次政策会议上累计下调了75个基点的利 率，这使得美元的利差优势明显下降，削弱了其对资金的吸引力。 再看纽元自身的表现。近期新西兰元的吸引力有所回升，主要来自对新西兰央行政策前景的重新评估。市场开始预期，新西兰央行 下一步可能转向更偏紧的政策立场，甚至存在"加息"的可能性。 这一预期并非空穴来风。最新公布的数据显示，新西兰第四季度消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨3.1%，高于市场此前普遍预期的 3%。通胀增速在2025年最后一个季度出现加快，意味着价格压力并 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international silver prices have surged dramatically since the beginning of 2026, with both New York and London silver prices surpassing $100 per ounce for the first time in history, leading to significant increases in the value of silver products and recycling opportunities [1][12]. Group 1: Silver Price Surge - On January 23, 2026, the price of silver reached a record high of $103.341 per ounce in London, marking a daily increase of 7.48% and a year-to-date increase of 44.38% [12]. - The price of silver has nearly tripled over the past two years, with a cumulative increase of approximately 150% in 2025 [12][11]. - The rising silver prices are attributed to factors such as the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, declining real interest rates, and a weakening dollar, which have led to a strong demand for silver as a relatively undervalued asset compared to gold [12]. Group 2: Consumer Experiences and Market Trends - A case study involving a consumer, Ms. Wang, illustrates the unexpected value of silver products; a silver thermos cup she received as a gift is now worth approximately 2000 yuan, while the diamond ring she purchased for 6200 yuan has depreciated to around 700 yuan [1][4][7]. - The jewelry industry has seen a trend where promotional silver products, such as the thermos cup, have gained value significantly compared to traditional luxury items like diamond rings, which are experiencing a decline in market value [11][14]. - The jewelry market is facing challenges, with a notable drop in demand for diamonds; for instance, the U.S. imports of finished diamonds fell by 48% in 2025, and prices for smaller diamonds have decreased significantly due to market saturation and consumer sentiment [14][18].

令人惊叹的不只是幅度，更是神速——纽约白银自2025年4月的28美元起步，仅用9个多月便一举突破 100美元大关，涨幅超260%。 1月24日凌晨，随着地缘政治风险与美元走弱，贵金属继续狂飙，叠加工业需求，现货白银涨超7%，最 高报约103美元/盎司，再创历史新高纪录，在去年录得耀眼的147%年度最佳涨幅后今年以来延续涨 势，本月迄今已涨超40%，多方势头只增不减。 贵金属价格还受到另一重利好支撑——特朗普表示，他已经完成了下一任美联储主席的面试工作，此举 重新引发市场对央行独立性的担忧。 随着价格持续走高，散户买盘明显涌入，投资者将白银视为相对便宜的"黄金替代品"；尤其在美国，抢 购热潮甚至令部分经销商不堪重负。 事实上，一些银行早已预测白银将迈入"三位数时代"。本月早些时候，花旗集团上调了短期目标价至每 盎司100美元，并同时预测黄金价格可能飙升至5000美元。 与此同时，全球白银市场已经连续五年处于供应短缺状态。除了金融属性之外，白银还具有重要的工业 用途。 不过，银价飙升也开始抑制需求，一些企业已缩减用量，通过材料替代来控制成本。 来源：智通财经 随着美国总统特朗普开启第二个白宫任期，围绕贸易、地缘政 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rising gold prices are driven by increased central bank purchases, expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and heightened geopolitical tensions, leading to a renewed "gold rush" in the market. Group 1: Central Bank Purchases - Central banks are increasingly buying gold as a zero-credit-risk asset, which is not affected by sanctions or monetary policy, serving as a "safety cushion" for sovereign assets. In 2025, global central bank net gold purchases reached 1,136 tons, the second highest on record. The People's Bank of China has increased its holdings for 14 consecutive months, with countries like Poland and Brazil also ramping up their gold purchases [3][4][5]. Group 2: Economic Factors - There are expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in 2026, prompting investors to replace a portion of U.S. bonds with gold [3]. Group 3: Geopolitical Tensions - Ongoing geopolitical issues, such as the Greenland dispute, U.S.-EU tariff threats, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and Middle Eastern instability, have increased demand for safe-haven assets, with gold being a primary beneficiary [4][5].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the geopolitical strategies and policies of the Trump administration, particularly focusing on trade, military deployment, and foreign relations. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Trump's Strategy**: The core of Trump's strategy is to intertwine personal interests with national interests, using trade deficits and military advantages as pressure tactics, particularly favoring tariffs even against allies to achieve quick results and please his base [1][2][4]. 2. **Economic Policy and Inflation**: The Trump administration's approach to addressing inflation relies heavily on economic policies, but measures like tariffs and tax cuts may exacerbate the burden on low- and middle-income groups, making it difficult to alleviate inflationary pressures in the short term [1][3]. 3. **Military Deployment Limitations**: The U.S. currently has 11 aircraft carriers, but only 3 are deployable, with 2 stationed in the Indo-Pacific region. This limited deployment hampers the ability to respond to multiple conflicts simultaneously, affecting global strategic capabilities [1][6]. 4. **Challenges of Trump Doctrine**: The Trump Doctrine faces tactical challenges, requiring quick results with low tolerance for error. The frequent election cycle demands rapid action, and any casualties could negate achievements, necessitating a balance between short-term effects and long-term strategy [1][7]. 5. **Military Action Characteristics**: Trump's military strategy is characterized by high-profile, dramatic actions, often involving small-scale special operations to demonstrate efficiency. However, this approach lacks long-term planning, making it difficult to achieve sustainable strategic benefits [1][8]. 6. **Limitations of Foreign Policy**: Trump's foreign policy is constrained by low tolerance for error and a lack of long-term strategy, preventing large-scale military invasions or regional destabilization. His focus on short-term outcomes often leads to high-profile initiatives that fizzle out [1][9][10]. 7. **Impact of Trade War**: The trade war has generated approximately $300 billion in annual revenue from tariffs, but 70-80% of the costs are borne by U.S. businesses and consumers, effectively acting as a domestic tax increase of $250 billion. The lack of supportive policies has led to a continued decline in U.S. manufacturing jobs [1][13][14]. 8. **Iran and Venezuela Issues**: Trump's handling of Venezuela and Iran reflects a pattern of high-profile interventions without long-term planning. In Venezuela, despite some short-term gains, the lack of a coherent strategy has hindered the ability to influence regime change [1][11][12]. 9. **Geopolitical Implications**: The geopolitical landscape is marked by short-term commitments and long-term delays, with many countries opting to delay responses to U.S. political changes. This suggests a shift in global asset allocation towards regions perceived as safer, such as East Asia and Africa [1][25]. 10. **Future of the Dollar**: The dollar is expected to weaken in the coming years, which could benefit non-U.S. equity markets. The long-term outlook for U.S. Treasury yields remains uncertain, with precious metal prices anticipated to rise due to these dynamics [1][26]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The discussion highlights the strategic value of Greenland in terms of Arctic routes and resources, as well as the complexities surrounding its independence and the U.S. interest in the region [1][16][17]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Europe, are likely to influence financial markets, with potential volatility stemming from trade negotiations and military commitments [1][19][20]. - The internal divisions within Europe regarding responses to U.S. pressures complicate the situation, as differing national interests hinder a unified approach [1][21].

宏观面：货币政策与避险情绪双重加持 政策扰动则成为短期波动的"放大器"。1月15日美国公布关键矿物进口调查公告，虽暂不对白银加征关 税，但未来可能采取谈判调整进口量、设定最低进口价等措施，引发市场恐慌性抛盘，导致白银大幅跳 水；而此前市场对关税豁免的预期也曾短暂提振价格，政策不确定性加剧了多空博弈。 美联储降息预期与美元走弱为白银提供金融属性支撑。美国通胀压力缓和、劳动力市场疲软，市场对美 联储3月开启降息周期的预期持续强化，降息周期压低实际利率，降低白银这类无息资产的持有机会成 本，同时美元走弱推高以美元计价的银价。此外，全球地缘政治冲突升级，中东等地缘风险加剧市场避 险情绪，白银因兼具工业与避险属性，吸引资金流入但弹性高于黄金。 ...

新华财经北京1月21日电面对持续贬值压力，韩国总统李在明于周三记者会上明确表示，韩元兑美元汇 率有望在未来一至两个月内企稳于1400韩元左右。此番表态迅速提振市场信心，当日韩元盘中一度上涨 0.7%，升至1468.00韩元。 李在明坦言，仅靠国内政策"很难从根本上扭转韩元贬值态势"，强调需结合外部环境综合施策。在其讲 话后，Kookmin Bank经济学家评价称，总统就外汇问题发表如此明确且强硬的言论"实属罕见"，释放 出官方稳定市场的坚定决心。 当前，全球避险情绪因美欧分歧加剧及地缘政治紧张而再度升温。Kookmin Bank经济学家指出，若格 陵兰岛相关事态引发的美元走弱趋势延续，韩元反弹空间将进一步扩大。 （文章来源：新华财经） 李在明指出，近期韩元走弱"并非韩国独有现象"，相较日元所承受的更大贬值压力，韩元表现"相对坚 挺"。他测算称，若韩元贬值幅度与日元一致，当前汇率或已逼近1600韩元。尽管韩国出口额创下7000 亿美元历史新高、贸易保持顺差，但汇率仍徘徊于去年低位，去年曾触及17年来的最低水平。 为缓解外汇市场压力，韩国政府已决定暂缓履行本年度对美200亿美元的投资承诺。该笔资金原属韩国 此前在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent surge in gold prices, which have surpassed $4800 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions, a weakening dollar, and strong demand from central banks and institutions [4][6][8]. Group 1: Geopolitical Risks and Market Reactions - The immediate trigger for the gold price increase is the escalation of global geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning U.S. trade policies and military actions, which have heightened market uncertainty and increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold [7]. Group 2: Currency and Monetary Policy Dynamics - The U.S. dollar index has significantly declined, reaching approximately 98.77, which typically inversely affects gold prices. The market anticipates continued dovish policies from the Federal Reserve, reducing the attractiveness of holding cash and dollar-denominated assets [9]. Group 3: Central Bank and Institutional Demand - Unlike previous market trends driven by speculative funds, the current gold price increase is largely supported by long-term allocation from central banks, which are diversifying their reserves away from dollar assets. This trend is expected to continue amid rising geopolitical and financial instability [11]. - Data from the World Gold Council indicates that global gold ETF inflows are at historically high levels, reflecting sustained demand from institutions and long-term investors [11][12]. Group 4: Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment - Technically, gold prices have broken through key resistance levels of $4400, $4500, and $4600, reinforcing a bullish trend. This positive feedback loop has attracted trend-following funds, further amplifying the market momentum [14]. - The article suggests that if global political and financial uncertainties persist, gold will maintain its position as a core asset for hedging systemic risks, evolving from a mere defensive tool to a strategic asset in portfolios [14].

Group 1 - The overall performance of the US dollar is weak, with the dollar index falling to around 99, leading to decreased investor confidence in dollar assets due to regional tensions [1] - Key variables affecting oil prices in 2026 include OPEC+ production cuts, macroeconomic policy shifts such as potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and escalating regional political risks that could trigger short-term oil price spikes [1] - The projected core price range for Brent crude oil in 2026 is $55-75 per barrel, while WTI is expected to be $50-70 per barrel, with volatility expected to narrow compared to 2025 [1] Group 2 - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index (399439) include major companies such as China National Petroleum, Sinopec, and CNOOC, collectively accounting for 67.11% of the index [2] - The Penghua Oil ETF (159697) closely tracks the National Petroleum and Natural Gas Index, reflecting the price changes of listed companies in the oil and gas sector on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges [1][2]