沪铜周报 美联储如期降息，铜再创历史新高 研究员：肖艳丽 投资咨询号：Z0016612 日期：2025-12-12 中辉期货有限公司 交易咨询业务资格 证监许可[2015]75号 目录 Contents 观点摘要 宏观经济 供需分析 总结展望 工作计划安排 WORK SCHEDULE 沪铜观点摘要 【核心观点】宏微共振，铜再创历史新高，建议多单继续持有，逢高移动止盈，长期依旧看好铜 【策略展望】 美联储如期降息，国内政治局会议和经济工作会议强调逆周期调节和宽松财政政策。国内冶炼厂 反内卷，预计压减10%产能，美铜持续虹吸全球库存。宏微共振，铜再创历史新高，建议多单继 续持有，移动止盈，警惕高位回落风险。 在趋势向上行情中，产业卖出套保根据现货库存，灵活降低套保比例，加速甩卖库存，落袋为安。 产业买入套保根据生产订单，积极回调逢低建仓，锁定原材料成本。中长期看，铜作为中美博弈 的重要战略资源和贵金属平替资产配置，在铜精矿紧张和绿色铜需求爆发背景下，对铜依旧看好。 短期沪铜关注区间【89500，96500】元/吨，伦铜关注区间【11000，12000】美元/吨 风险关注：日本央行加息，铜矿干扰，需求不足 4 工作 ...

2025.12.15 本文字数：3259，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 |第一财经 祝嫣然 中央经济工作会议为2026年经济工作指明施政方向后，多部门已开始根据会议部署细化落实措施，将适 时出台增量政策。 近几日，国家发改委、财政部、央行、工信部、国资委等部门密集发声，对优化实施"两新""两重"、推 动投资止跌回稳、清理拖欠企业账款、加紧培育壮大新动能等方面进一步细化部署，提出一系列具体举 措。 12月13日，在2025～2026中国经济年会上，中央财办分管日常工作的副主任韩文秀表示，明年将根据形 势变化出台实施增量政策，要协同发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，推动经济稳中向好。要优化支出 结构，强化国家重大战略的财力保障，推动更多资金资源投资于人，统筹用好政府债券资金，更加注重 惠民生、扩内需、增后劲。 "当前我国经济发展中周期性、结构性、体制性问题相互交织叠加。"韩文秀强调，没有包治百病的灵丹 妙药，必须综合施策，既要加强宏观调控，减轻短期经济波动，又要不失时机地全面深化改革，向改革 要动力、要活力，推动经济更多转向内生增长。 "逆周期""跨周期"各有所指 中央经济工作会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the Chinese government's economic policy direction for 2026, emphasizing the need for both incremental and stock policies to stabilize and improve the economy, with a focus on enhancing domestic demand and investment [3][4][6]. Group 1: Economic Policy Direction - The Central Economic Work Conference has outlined that the economic work for next year will focus on stabilizing progress and improving quality, integrating stock and incremental policies, and enhancing macroeconomic governance effectiveness [6][7]. - The government aims to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy to support economic stability and transition from quantity to quality growth [6][7]. Group 2: Investment and Consumption - The government plans to increase central budget investment and optimize the implementation of major projects to stimulate investment and address the decline in fixed asset investment [11][12]. - There will be a focus on enhancing consumer spending through various measures, including urban and rural income growth plans and the promotion of consumption in sectors like services and technology [10][11]. Group 3: Innovation and Industry Development - The emphasis on innovation and industrial development is highlighted, with plans to implement actions for high-quality development of key industrial chains and promote advanced manufacturing clusters [14][15]. - State-owned enterprises are expected to play a crucial role in driving innovation and upgrading traditional industries, ensuring the stability and security of national strategic industrial chains [15][16].

Core Insights - The significant increase in net financing of government bonds reflects a proactive approach to counterbalance the contraction of private sector credit, thereby stabilizing macroeconomic conditions [1][2][3] Group 1: Government Bond Financing - The net financing of government bonds reached 13.15 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.61 trillion yuan year-on-year, effectively filling the gap left by the contraction in private sector credit [1][2] - This financing supports the growth of social financing stock and directs funds towards critical areas such as technological innovation and social welfare through the multiplier effect of fiscal spending [2] Group 2: Debt Management - A significant portion of the government bond financing is utilized for "debt replacement" and "debt resolution," optimizing the structure of existing debts rather than solely funding new projects [3] - The strategy of replacing high-interest, opaque hidden debts with lower-interest, longer-term government bonds alleviates the financial burden on local governments, allowing them to refocus on economic development [3] Group 3: Asset Allocation Pressure - The expansion of government bond issuance addresses the asset allocation pressures faced by financial institutions, which have been struggling with a scarcity of quality assets amid declining market interest rates [4] - Increased supply of government bonds meets the asset allocation needs of banks and insurance companies, enhancing their asset structure and providing liquidity support from the central bank [4] Group 4: Long-term Economic Implications - The substantial growth in government bond financing serves as a robust response to short-term economic growth pressures while addressing long-term structural risks [4] - By effectively utilizing the expanded government credit, there is potential for significant returns in driving high-quality economic development in the future [4]

Index Adjustments - Multiple indices in the A-share market, including the Shenzhen Component Index and ChiNext Index, will undergo sample adjustments effective December 15, 2025, with significant changes in constituent stocks [1][2] - The Shenzhen Component Index will replace 17 stocks, adding 7 from the main board and 10 from ChiNext, including companies like Demingli and Wohu Nuclear Materials [1] - The ChiNext Index will replace 8 stocks, with new additions including Shuanglin Co. and Changshan Pharmaceutical [1] - The CSI 300 Index will change 11 stocks, with new entries such as Guolian Minsheng and Guangqi Technology [2] Macroeconomic Policies - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized the need for incremental policies to support economic stability, with GDP expected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan in 2025 [3] - The Ministry of Commerce and other financial authorities issued a notification to enhance collaboration between business and finance to boost consumption [4] Investment and Fiscal Policies - The Ministry of Finance is focusing on stabilizing investment and enhancing macroeconomic governance, with plans to increase fiscal deficits and optimize government bond usage [5][6] - The People's Bank of China is set to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy to maintain market stability [8][9] Market Developments - The People's Bank of China announced a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to enhance liquidity in the market [15] - The North Exchange is reportedly testing a new system for market capitalization-based IPOs, although some brokerages have not yet initiated testing [11] Company News - Yushu Technology launched a humanoid robot "App Store" for users to upload and share trained models [13] - Moore Threads plans to use up to 7.5 billion yuan of idle fundraising for cash management while ensuring project funding remains unaffected [14]

中央经济工作会议为2026年经济工作指明施政方向后，多部门已开始根据会议部署细化落实措施，将适 时出台增量政策。 近几日，国家发改委、财政部、央行、工信部、国资委等部门密集发声，对优化实施"两新""两重"、推 动投资止跌回稳、清理拖欠企业账款、加紧培育壮大新动能等方面进一步细化部署，提出一系列具体举 措。 12月13日，在2025～2026中国经济年会上，中央财办分管日常工作的副主任韩文秀表示，明年将根据形 势变化出台实施增量政策，要协同发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，推动经济稳中向好。要优化支出 结构，强化国家重大战略的财力保障，推动更多资金资源投资于人，统筹用好政府债券资金，更加注重 惠民生、扩内需、增后劲。 "当前我国经济发展中周期性、结构性、体制性问题相互交织叠加。"韩文秀强调，没有包治百病的灵丹 妙药，必须综合施策，既要加强宏观调控，减轻短期经济波动，又要不失时机地全面深化改革，向改革 要动力、要活力，推动经济更多转向内生增长。 "逆周期""跨周期"各有所指 中央经济工作会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增 量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏 ...

Index Adjustments - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced sample adjustments for several indices, including the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index, effective December 15, 2025. The Shenzhen Component Index will replace 17 stocks, including 7 from the main board and 10 from the ChiNext [2] - The ChiNext Index will replace 8 stocks, with new additions including Shuanglin Co., Changshan Pharmaceutical, and Fulian Precision [2] - The CSI 300 Index will replace 11 stocks, with new entries such as Guolian Minsheng and Guangqi Technology, while removing stocks like FAW Jiefang and Oppein Home [3] - The CSI 500 Index will replace 50 stocks, including Dongfang Yuhong and Heertai, while removing stocks like China Great Wall and Semir Garment [3] - The CSI 1000 Index will replace 100 stocks, with new additions including Fenghua High-Tech and Shijia Photon [3] - The CSI A50 Index will replace 4 stocks, including Zhongji Xuchuang and Huagong Technology, while removing stocks like ZTE and Shanghai Airport [4] - The CSI A100 Index will replace 6 stocks, with new entries such as Dongfang Fortune and Huagong Technology, while removing stocks like Shanghai Airport and CITIC Securities [4] - The CSI A500 Index will replace 20 stocks, including Zhongtian Technology and Genesis [4] Economic Policies - The Central Economic Work Conference indicated that China’s economic indicators for 2025 are expected to exceed expectations, with a projected GDP of around 140 trillion yuan. Incremental policies will be introduced in 2026 based on changing circumstances [6] - The Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Bureau issued a notice to enhance collaboration between commerce and finance to boost consumption, outlining 11 policy measures [7] - The Ministry of Finance emphasized the need for fiscal policies to support investment stabilization, including the issuance of long-term special bonds and optimizing local government bond usage [8] Financial Market Updates - The People's Bank of China announced a continuation of moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on stabilizing economic growth and ensuring liquidity [10] - Social financing (社融) increased by 33.39 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 8.5% [11] - The Financial Regulatory Bureau stressed the importance of risk prevention and supporting the stability of the real estate market [12] Market Strategies - CITIC Securities suggested focusing on both domestic and foreign demand, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards domestic consumption [18] - Zhongxin Jian Investment noted that the market has completed its adjustment phase and anticipates a new wave of market activity, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals and AI computing [19] - Guotai Junan recommended a balanced asset allocation strategy, emphasizing the importance of risk management amid potential market volatility [20]

【重点关注】 ·中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行 ·前十一个月社会融资规模增量累计为33.39万亿元 ·2025年11月份CPI同比涨幅扩大核心CPI继续上涨 ·前11个月我国货物贸易进出口同比增长3.6% ·国家税务总局：1至11月新能源乘用车销售收入同比增长19.1% ·顶格重罚！证监会对私募机构优策投资开罚单 ·美联储将联邦基金利率目标区间降至3.5%至3.75% 为年内第三次降息 ·12月9日-10日，全国零售业创新发展大会在北京召开。会议要求，要准确把握守正与创新、"变"与"不 变"、盘活存量与做优增量、"线上"与"线下"、有为政府与有效市场之间的关系，统筹推进零售业创新 发展。要坚持诚信经营，以高品质商品和服务赢得消费者青睐，推动商业设施从空间租赁转向场景运 营、生态构建，提升可持续发展水平。要学习推广胖东来等企业好经验好做法，加快转型提升。要更加 注重下沉市场，发展新业态新模式新场景，激发消费潜力。 【国内要闻】 ·中央经济工作会议12月10日至11日在北京举行。会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中 求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference were successively held. The policy orientation of the Politburo meeting returned to "strengthening counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment", and the Central Economic Work Conference emphasized quality improvement and efficiency enhancement. The bond market yield declined overall but with a limited range. The bond market's reaction to the meetings was generally positive but still full of concerns [1][10]. - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a reasonable intensity, with a focus on optimizing policy project implementation and addressing local fiscal difficulties. In 2026, the deficit rate may remain at 4%, and the implementation of "two new" policies and "two important" projects will be optimized [1][11]. - Monetary policy support may increase, aiming to achieve stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery. Policy tools will be used more flexibly and efficiently, and measures like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts may cooperate with fiscal policy [2][11]. - The bond market's rise this year may be restricted by multiple factors, including concerns about ultra - long - term treasury bond supply, inflation expectations, and institutional behavior. It is recommended to adopt a coupon strategy at the end of the year [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook of the Bond Market - This week, important meetings led to an increase in expectations of loose monetary policy, and the bond market generally recovered. The yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds both declined by 1bp. The yield first decreased and then increased during the week [9]. - Fiscal policy will maintain a reasonable intensity, with a focus on optimizing project implementation and addressing local fiscal difficulties. Monetary policy support will increase, aiming for economic growth and price recovery [11]. - The bond market's rise may be restricted by multiple factors. It is expected that reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be used cautiously, and the curve may steepen. It is recommended to adopt a coupon strategy at the end of the year [2]. 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Funding Situation - The central bank had a net injection, and the funding rate declined. From December 8th to 12th, the central bank's open - market net injection was 47 billion yuan. The R001 and DR001 decreased by 2bp and 3bp respectively compared to December 5th [19][21]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends - Yields first decreased and then increased. The yields of key - term treasury bonds declined, and most of the term spreads widened. As of December 12th, the yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds decreased by 1bp to 1.84% and 2.25% respectively [28][29]. 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - The weekly turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds rebounded to 43%, the inter - bank leverage ratio rose to 107.7%, and the median duration of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds remained basically unchanged. The implied tax rate of 10 - year CDB bonds narrowed [20][33]. 3.2.4 Bond Supply - This week, the net financing of interest - rate bonds increased. The net financing of treasury bonds, local government bonds, and policy - bank bonds all rose. The net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit was negative, and the average issuance rate increased [47][53]. 3.3 Economic Data - In November, export growth rebounded, and the year - on - year increase in CPI expanded. The year - on - year growth rate of exports was 5.9%, and the year - on - year increase in CPI was 0.7% [57]. - The increase in social financing in November was higher than the same period last year, but household credit remained weak. Since December, new - home sales have weakened, while movie consumption has remained stronger than the seasonal average [58]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - The Fed completed its interest - rate cuts this year, and internal differences intensified. The bond markets in France and Germany declined, and most emerging markets also fell [67][68]. 3.5 Performance of Major Asset Classes - The performance of major asset classes this week was: live pigs > Shanghai copper > Shanghai gold > CSI 1000 > China bonds > CSI 300 > Convertible bonds > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > US dollar > Rebar > Crude oil [3][74]. 3.6 Policy Review - Multiple departments held meetings to convey the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, emphasizing policies such as risk prevention, financial support for key areas, and high - quality development [78][82]. - The Shanghai Stock Exchange revised the bond trading business guide, optimizing specific bond element display and adding non - trading transfer business [83].

周度报告——股指期货 宏观事件落地，A 股窄幅震荡 [★Ta一bl周e_复Su盘mm：a政ry]治局会议定调温和 股 指 期 货 本周（12/08-12/12）以美元计价的全球股市收跌。MSCI 全球指 数跌 0.18%，其中新兴（+0.33%）>发达市场（-0.24%）>前沿市 场（-0.89%）。瑞典股市涨 1.56%跑赢全球，印度股市跌 0.9%全 球表现最差。中国权益资产分化，分市场看，A 股>港股>中概 股。A 股沪深京三市日均成交额 19532 亿元，环比上周（16963 亿元)放量 2569 亿元。A 股宽基指数涨跌互现，其中北证 50 指 数涨 2.79%表现最好，微盘股指数跌幅 4.69%表现最差。本周 A 股中信一级行业中共 9 个上涨（上周 17 个），21 个下跌（上周 13 个）。涨幅最大的行业为通信（+5.92%），跌幅最大的行业 为煤炭（-3.80%）。利率方面，本周 10Y 国债收益率下行，1Y 下行，利差扩大。ETF 资金流向方面，跟踪沪深 300 指数的 ETF 份额本周增加 5.3 亿份，跟踪中证 500 的 ETF 份额增加 7.2 亿份。 跟踪中证 1000 的 ET ...