Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures showed a positive trend on August 8, with Shanghai gold futures priced at 788.04 CNY per gram, an increase of 0.59%, and Shanghai silver futures at 9264.00 CNY per kilogram, up by 0.68% [1] - International precious metal prices were mixed, with COMEX gold priced at 3497.10 USD per ounce, up by 0.41%, while COMEX silver was at 38.51 USD per ounce, down by 0.05% [1] - The opening prices for Shanghai gold and silver futures were 784.18 CNY and 9275.00 CNY per kilogram, respectively, with the highest prices reaching 788.36 CNY and 9318.00 CNY [2] Group 2 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen criticized the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions as lacking logic, while Fed official Bostic indicated that dissenting opinions at future meetings would not be surprising given the current complexities [3] - The latest CME "FedWatch" data shows a 7.3% probability of maintaining interest rates in September, a 92.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut, and a 2.5% chance of holding rates steady in October, with cumulative probabilities for cuts of 25 and 50 basis points at 36.1% and 61.5%, respectively [3] - On August 7, COMEX gold prices rose by 1.44% to 3482.70 USD per ounce, while Shanghai gold futures increased by 0.26% to 785.44 CNY per gram, driven by market expectations of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in September and October [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant decline in demand for U.S. Treasury bonds, particularly the 30-year bond auction, which is seen as a troubling indicator for the bond market [1][2] - The 30-year bond auction had a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.27, the lowest since November 2023, indicating weak investor interest [1] - The indirect bid ratio, which reflects foreign demand, was at 59.5%, the lowest since May, while the direct bid ratio from domestic investors was 23.03%, significantly below previous averages [1] Group 2 - The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.25%, marking a continuous increase for three days, while the 2-year yield reached 3.73% [1] - The auction results suggest that if the Federal Reserve, led by Powell, begins to cut interest rates, there could be a sharp revaluation of inflation expectations, leading to a steepening of the yield curve [2] - Recent labor market data indicates an increase in initial jobless claims to 226,000, slightly above expectations, and a rise in continuing claims to 1.97 million, the highest level since November 2021, suggesting a challenging job market [2]

南华贵金属日报:降息预期回升 贵金属延续走高 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月8日 【行情回顾】 周四贵金属市场偏强运行，最终SHFE黄金2510主力合约785.02元/克，+0.1%；SHFE白银2510合约收 9258元/千克，+1.07%。近期美经济数据不佳以及政府对美联储施压等影响，美联储9月降息预期回升是价 格上涨主因。周四晚间公布的美周度初请失业金人数高于预期，反映就业市场降温，而美7月纽约联储1Y通胀 预期走升。消息面，英国央行周四宣布降息25基点至4%，符合市场预期，但九位货币政策委员会成员中四人 反对降息，亦出现罕见"双轮投票"，显示出央行内部在通胀压力下的政策分歧正在加剧。中国央行则连续 第9个月增持黄金1.86吨至2300.41多。 【本周关注】 本周数据清淡。事件方面，周五22：20，2025年FOMC票委、圣路易联储主席穆萨莱姆发表讲话。 【南华观点】 中长线或偏多，短线仍主要由多头掌握局面，伦敦金有望延续回升，支撑3340，阻力3400，3450。伦敦银 支撑37.6，38，阻力38.5。操作上仍维持回调做多 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年8月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：被视为鸽派的米兰即将担任美联储理事，金价震荡回升；美国三大股指 收盘涨跌不一，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率集体上涨，10年期美债收 益率涨2.62个基点报4.252%；美元指数跌0.13%报98.09，离岸人民币对美元小幅升 值报7.1805；COMEX黄金期货涨1.44%报3482.70美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货785.02，现货781.3，基差-3.72，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单36045千克，不变；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏多 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the A-share market in China, with a focus on the banking and semiconductor industries, as well as the broader implications of the "anti-involution" theme in various sectors [1][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Trends**: The A-share market is expected to experience a "mean reversion" trend characterized by "East rising, West declining" dynamics, driven by long-term capital allocation and a consensus reached between China and the U.S. regarding tariffs [1][2]. 2. **Anti-Involution Theme**: The "anti-involution" theme is particularly evident in the banking and semiconductor sectors, aiming to lower prices to reduce real interest rates and convert savings into consumption, which is anticipated to last for one to two years [1][3][4]. 3. **Defensive Strategy Against U.S. Competition**: China should adopt a defensive strategy to enhance domestic purchasing power by lowering domestic prices, while being cautious of U.S. efforts to support India as an alternative to Chinese low-end manufacturing [5]. 4. **Asset Allocation Recommendations for 2025**: Suggested allocations include overweighting sectors such as banking, telecommunications, technology, military informationization, high-dividend stocks, gold, Bitcoin, and Ethereum [1][6][7]. 5. **Correlation Between U.S. and Chinese Markets**: There is a notable correlation (70%-80%) between the trading behaviors of strong sectors in both markets, particularly those related to AI and military information technology [1][8]. 6. **Long-term Impact of Anti-Involution Policies**: The implementation of anti-involution policies should be gradual to avoid economic stagnation, with a focus on stabilizing the economy and ensuring that policies do not negatively impact economic growth [9][4]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Market Behavior and Economic Indicators**: The recent upward movement in the U.S. stock market is attributed to the development of the AI industry and the influence of populist policies, which may mitigate short-term risks [34][35]. 2. **Inflation Expectations**: Inflation expectations are particularly sensitive for growth stocks, and current observations indicate a failure of inflation trading strategies in both the U.S. and China [17]. 3. **Geopolitical Factors**: The reduction of geopolitical risks, such as the easing of U.S. software restrictions and potential resolutions to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, could lead to decreased inflationary pressures in the future [18]. 4. **Investment in High-Growth Assets**: High-growth assets, particularly in AI, are projected to see significant demand increases, with growth rates expected to be around 15%-18% from 2024 to 2030 [19][20]. 5. **Sector Performance**: The performance of sectors such as gold and Bitcoin is highlighted, with both showing resilience against U.S. Treasury bonds, indicating their potential as investment vehicles [33]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into market trends, strategic recommendations, and the broader economic context affecting the A-share market and related sectors.

本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日期货主力合约行情走势大概率如 下： 股指期货将偏强震荡：IF2509 阻力位 4122 和 4141 点，支撑位 4097 和 4087 点；IH2509 阻力位 2812 和 2820 点，支撑位 2795 和 2786 点；IC2509 阻力位 6250 和 6275 点，支撑位 6190 和 6160 点；IM2509 阻力位 6830 和 6885 点，支撑位 6760 和 6730 点。 2025 年 8 月 7 日 股指期货将偏强震荡 铜、铝、锌、氧化铝、工业硅、多晶 硅、碳酸锂期货将偏强震荡 焦煤期货将偏强宽幅震荡 原 油、铁矿石、玻璃、纯碱期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年8月7日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：报道称特朗普与乌克兰的和平谈判可能取得进展，金价震荡小幅回落； 美国三大股指全线收涨，欧洲三大股指收盘全线上涨；美债收益率涨跌不一，10年 期美债收益率涨1.77个基点报4.226%；美元指数跌0.55%报98.22，离岸人民币对美 元小幅升值报7.1848；COMEX黄金期货跌0.08%报3431.8美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货783.68，现货779.94，基差-3.74，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单36045千克，增加36千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多增；偏多 6、预期：今日关注英国央行利率决议、美国二 ...

摘要周三（8月6日），周二，美元指数维持区间震荡，在美国服务业PMI数据公布后短线下挫，抹去日 内大部分涨幅，最终小幅收涨0.02%，报98.727。现货黄金走出V型反转，盘中触及3390美元关口，最 终收涨0.22%，收报3380.86美元/盎司，创近两周高位；现货白银连续第三日上涨，最终收涨1.06%，报 37.81美元/盎司。 【行情回顾】 周三（8月6日），周二，美元指数维持区间震荡，在美国服务业PMI数据公布后短线下挫，抹去日内大 部分涨幅，最终小幅收涨0.02%，报98.727。现货黄金走出V型反转，盘中触及3390美元关口，最终收 涨0.22%，收报3380.86美元/盎司，创近两周高位；现货白银连续第三日上涨，最终收涨1.06%，报37.81 美元/盎司。 【交易思路】 【要闻汇总】 多重关税威胁继续推升通胀预期，黄金避险属性持续强化，短期上行需突破3450美元附近阻力位，若持 稳3350美元左右支撑则趋势动能不改；白银受工业需求担忧压制，反弹面临38美元附近阻力压制，37美 元左右支撑若稳固或蓄力补涨，需警惕中东制裁触发油金联动行情。 政治层面特朗普称将很快宣布美联储主席人选，并暗示副总统万 ...

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年8月6日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：特朗普表示本周决定美联储新理事，金价震荡回升；美国三大股指全线 收跌，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率多数上涨，10年期美债收益率涨 1.17个基点报4.208%；美元指数涨0.01%报98.76，离岸人民币对美元小幅贬值报 7.1886；COMEX黄金期货涨0.25%报3435美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货782.5，现货778.8，基差-3.7，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单36009千克，增加120千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏多 5、主 ...

证券研究报告 2025年08月05日 资产配置快评 华创证券研究所 证券分析师:牛播坤 邮箱:niubokun@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360514030002 证券分析师:郭忠良 【资产配置快评】2025年第 35期 Riders on the Charts: 每周大类资产配置图 表精粹 投资摘要: � Strong tech is always a sharp instrument. -Dr Alexander Caedmon Karp 邮箱:guozhongliang@hcyjs.com 执业编号:S0360520090002 相关研究报告 8. 美元兑日元互换基差和美元融资溢价周度更新 9. 铜金价格比与离岸人民币汇率走势周度更新 10.中国在岸股债总回报相对表现周度更新 * 风险提示: 原油市场爆发价格战,新兴市场出现系统性金融风险 《资产配置快评 2025年第 34 期:为潜在通胀上 行风险做准备-7月美联储议息会议点评2025年 第5期》 2025-07-31 《资产配置快评 2025年第 33 期: Riders on the Charts: 每周大类资产配置图表精粹》 2025-0 ...