俄罗斯总统普京：有可能与美国达成新的军备协议 美联储隔夜逆回购工具使用规模创2021年4月以来新低 据悉特朗普政府正商讨入股英特尔 美国7月PPI环比大增0.9%！创三年来最大增幅 美国财长贝森特：不太可能会重新评估美国黄金储备持仓，将停止出售比特币持仓 美联储官员反驳9月大幅降息的预期 特朗普：此次与普京的会晤为第二次会晤定下基础，如果问题解决不了，将实施制裁 男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 中国央行今日将开展5000亿元买断式逆回购操作 香港证监会及香港金管局就稳定币相关市场波动发表联合声明 长和最新表态：预计今年不会完成港口交易，将邀请内地投资者加入 市场盘点 周四，美元指数有所反弹，随后因美国7月PPI指数高于预期，或暗示未来几个月通胀将普遍上升，美指扩大涨幅并重回98关口上方，最终收涨0.43%，报 98.17；基准的10年期美债收益率收报4.290%，2年期美债收益率收报3.741%。 现货黄金日内持续下挫，并在美盘时段一度跌破3330美元关口，较日高大跌超40美元，最终收跌0.6 ...

Group 1 - The US July PPI year-on-year rate is 3.3%, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 2.5% and marking the highest level since February [1] - The US July PPI month-on-month rate recorded a 0.9% increase, the largest since June 2022 [1] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending August 9 is 224,000, slightly below the expected 228,000 [1] Group 2 - Binance co-founder He Yi has been selected as a global leader by Fortune, co-owning the venture capital arm YZi Labs and holding at least 10% of Binance's parent company [1] - US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that Bitcoin reserves are valued between $15 billion and $20 billion, and there will be no purchases of cryptocurrency reserves [2] - Bessent indicated a potential for a series of interest rate cuts, starting with a 25 basis point reduction [2] Group 3 - Tron founder Justin Sun has filed a lawsuit against Bloomberg in Delaware, claiming the disclosure of his crypto assets violates previous confidentiality agreements [2] - The Guizhou provincial government has refuted rumors regarding a former official allegedly mining 327 Bitcoins, clarifying that the case is unrelated to Bitcoin [3]

Group 1 - The Norwegian central bank has decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 4.25%, aligning with market expectations, marking the first pause in rate cuts since an unexpected 25 basis point reduction in June [2][3] - The central bank's governor, Ida Walden Bache, indicated that the fight against inflation is not yet complete, suggesting that if the economy develops as expected, there may be 1 to 2 rate cuts by the end of 2025, bringing the rate to "slightly below 4%" [2] - Current inflation data remains high, with core inflation at 3.1% in June and July, significantly above the target of 2%, which limits the space for further rate cuts [3] Group 2 - The central bank's previous rate cut in June was the first since the pandemic, aimed at addressing inflation that, while easing, still exceeds targets [3] - External factors, particularly the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts, are influencing the Norwegian market, with a high probability of a 90% chance of a Fed rate cut in September [3] - The Norwegian central bank is cautious about further easing, as additional cuts could weaken the Norwegian krone and may need to reserve policy tools to respond to worsening economic conditions [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On Thursday, the freight index (Europe line) futures prices fluctuated slightly. The main contract EC2510 closed down 0.18%, and the far - month contracts rose between 1 - 2%. The spot indicators continued to decline, and the market sentiment turned cold. Due to the "price war" among leading shipping companies, the advance release of cargo volume in the second quarter, and various tariff measures, the supply - demand mismatch remained unchanged, leading to a downward trend in futures prices. Although the US consumer side showed resilience, inflation risks still existed, and China's counter - measures against the EU further intensified trade tensions. The demand expectation for the freight index (Europe line) was weak, and the futures prices had large fluctuations. However, the rapid recovery of spot - end price indicators might drive the futures prices to rise in the short term. Investors were advised to be cautious and track relevant data [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1359.500, down 2.4; EC second - main contract closing price: 1723.3, up 27.6 - EC2510 - EC2512 spread: - 363.80, up 3.20; EC2510 - EC2602 spread: - 161.90, down 7.00 - EC contract basis: 875.98, down 88.78 - EC main contract open interest: 56698, down 4042 [1] 3.2 Spot Market Data - SCFIS (Europe line) (weekly): 2235.48, down 62.38; SCFIS (US West line) (weekly): 1082.14, down 47.98 - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1489.68, down 61.06; container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, unchanged - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1200.73, down 31.56; CCFI (Europe line) (weekly): 1799.05, up 9.55 - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 2025.00, down 8.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1594.00, up 1.00 - Average charter price (Panamax ship): 13658.00, up 230.00; Average charter price (Capesize ship): 25955.00, down 531.00 [1] 3.3 Industry News - Four departments including the central bank detailed two discount interest policies, which were an innovative exploration of fiscal - financial cooperation to boost consumption. After the policy expired, an effect evaluation would be carried out, and the policy period might be extended or the support scope might be expanded - Trump might propose to jointly develop rare earth resources in Alaska with Putin during the Russia - US summit and lift the export ban on Russian aircraft parts. The US might increase sanctions or impose secondary tariffs on Russia if the meeting went poorly - US Treasury Secretary Besent called for an immediate new round of interest rate cuts by the Fed, believing that the Fed might start earlier and there was a high possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut in September. There were 10 or 11 candidates for the Fed chairman [1] 3.4 Key Data to Watch - China's July year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods at 10:00 on August 15 - China's July year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries at 10:00 on August 15 - China's year - to - date year - on - year growth rate of urban fixed - asset investment in July at 10:00 on August 15 - US July month - on - month growth rate of retail sales at 20:30 on August 15 - US July month - on - month growth rate of industrial production at 21:15 on August 15 - US preliminary August one - year inflation rate expectation at 22:00 on August 15 [1]

Group 1 - The yield on short-term U.S. Treasury bonds is nearing its lowest point in over three months, indicating traders' expectations for the Federal Reserve to initiate interest rate cuts next month [1] - The two-year Treasury yield is hovering around 3.67%, down nearly 30 basis points since late July, primarily following the release of disappointing non-farm payroll data [1] - The core support for the market's strength is based on investor expectations that Federal Reserve officials will implement the first interest rate cut of the year during the September meeting, influenced by ongoing pressure from President Trump [1] Group 2 - The ten-year Treasury yield has also declined to around 4.22%, down 15 basis points since late July, showing a mild downward trend [3] - Market sentiment has significantly reversed compared to two weeks ago, when the probability of a rate cut in September was below 50%, a shift triggered by the release of weak employment reports [3] - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet has joined the call for rate cuts, suggesting a 50 basis point cut in December may be appropriate, and stated that rates "should be lowered by 150 to 175 basis points" [3]

Monetary Policy Stance - Federal Reserve's Daly (2027 voter) suggests a significant interest rate cut next month may be inappropriate [1] - Policy may be too restrictive and misaligned with economic trends, necessitating recalibration [1]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - The remarks of Besent suggesting a possible 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in September boosted the US stocks, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq hitting new highs. In the domestic market, the Shanghai Composite Index successfully broke through the high of the "924" market last year. Although the trading volume on that day increased significantly compared with recent days but did not reach an extremely high level. There may be short - term washing behavior, but the overall upward channel pattern is maintained. It is recommended that investors pay attention to the layout opportunities during the pullbacks [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Consumption Policy Advancement**: Domestically, from January to July this year, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan. At the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, and the stock of social financing scale increased by 9%. Four departments including the central bank explained two discount policies, which are an innovative exploration of fiscal - financial coordination to support and boost consumption and will form a "combination punch" with policies such as subsidies for trading in old consumer goods for new ones. Overseas, US Treasury Secretary Besent issued the clearest call for interest rate cuts so far, asking the Federal Reserve to immediately start a new round of interest rate cut cycles and stating that US interest rates should be 150 to 175 basis points lower than the current level. He believes that the Federal Reserve may start interest rate cuts earlier, and there is a high possibility of a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September [1]. - **Shanghai Composite Index Uptrend**: In the spot market, the three major A - share indices fluctuated upwards. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.48% to close at 3683.46 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 3.62%. In terms of industries, most sector indices rose. The communication, non - ferrous metals, electronics, and pharmaceutical and biological industries led the gains, while the banking, coal, and food and beverage industries led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets exceeded 2 trillion yuan on that day. In the overseas market, the three major US stock indices closed up across the board, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 1.04% to close at 44922.27 points [1]. - **Futures Index Position Reduction**: In the futures market, in terms of basis, the current - month futures index contract will be delivered on Friday, and the basis tends to converge. In terms of trading volume and open interest, the trading volume of the IH contract increased, while the open interest of stock index futures decreased [2]. 2. Strategy - The remarks of Besent about a possible 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in September boosted US stocks. In the domestic market, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the high of the "924" market last year. Although the trading volume increased significantly but did not reach an extremely high level. There may be short - term adjustments, but the overall upward trend remains. Investors are advised to look for opportunities during pullbacks [3]. 3. Charts Macro - economic Charts - The report includes charts such as the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share trends, the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and A - share trends, and the relationship between US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][12][11]. Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Domestic Main Stock Index Daily Performance**: On August 13, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3683.46, up 0.48% from the previous day; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11551.36, up 1.76%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2496.50, up 3.62%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4176.58, up 0.79%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2812.98, up 0.61%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 6508.10, up 1.40%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7064.33, up 1.45% [14]. - Also includes charts of the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [6][15]. Futures Index Tracking Charts - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest data of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts are provided. For example, the trading volume of the IF contract was 126774, an increase of 23189, and the open interest was 266298, an increase of 10150 [16]. - **Basis**: The basis data of the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are given. For example, the current - month contract basis of the IF contract was 4.62, an increase of 4.05 [41]. - **Inter - temporal Spread**: The inter - temporal spread data of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts are presented, including the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts, the next - quarter and current - month contracts, etc. For example, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts of the IF contract was - 10.40, an increase of 2.80 [46]. - Also includes charts related to open interest, open interest ratio, and foreign capital net positions of each contract [6].

Group 1: Global Macro Insights - The US July CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous month and below the expected 2.8%. The month-on-month increase was 0.2%, consistent with expectations, while core CPI rose to 3.1% year-on-year, indicating a continuous upward trend over three months [3][4] - The likelihood of a rate cut in September has increased significantly, driven by soft non-farm payroll data and rising employment risks. The appointment of Stephen Moore to the Federal Reserve may further tilt the Fed towards a rate cut [4] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Tencent Music - Tencent Music's Q2 revenue reached 8.4 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations by 6%. Subscription revenue grew by 17% year-on-year, with SVIP penetration rising to 12%. Non-member business revenue surged by 47%, driven by advertising and concert revenues [9][10] - The company maintains a forecast of 6.1 million net new members for the year, with an expected ARPPU of 12.2 yuan by year-end. Non-subscription revenue is projected to grow by 30% in 2025, supported by advertising and concert collaborations [9] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights -阅文集团 (Yuewen Group) - Yuewen Group's revenue for the first half of 2025 was 3.2 billion yuan, a 24% year-on-year decline. However, adjusted net profit increased by 36% to 550 million yuan, with an adjusted net profit margin of 17% [5][8] - The IP derivatives business continues to show strong growth, with GMV reaching 480 million yuan, nearing the total for the entire year of 2024. The company expects a 15% decline in copyright operations revenue, while core IP operations are projected to grow by 4% [5][8] Group 4: Valuation Adjustments - For Yuewen Group, the target price has been raised to 39 HKD, reflecting an upward adjustment in valuation based on a 25x P/E ratio, considering the industry's valuation center has shifted upwards [8] - Tencent Music's target price has been adjusted to 30 USD, based on a 30x P/E ratio, highlighting the potential for diversified monetization in the music services sector [10]

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets are experiencing significant turmoil, driven by political statements and economic data, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy and the stability of the U.S. dollar [1][3][12]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has surpassed 5%, and the probability of Federal Reserve Chair Powell being dismissed has risen to 26% [1]. - Gold prices surged by $20 per ounce, while the U.S. dollar index fell by 25 points, reflecting heightened market volatility [1]. - The Dow Jones index dropped nearly 1%, contrasting with the Nasdaq reaching a historic high, illustrating a split in market performance [6][12]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Dynamics - The Federal Reserve is facing internal divisions, with a 9:2 vote against the Chair's decision, marking the first public dissent since 1993 [3][4]. - There is a growing expectation for interest rate cuts, with predictions of a 25 basis point reduction in September, October, and December [8]. - The Fed's current debt burden stands at $37 trillion, with interest payments consuming a quarter of federal tax revenue [1][4]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Core CPI has risen to 2.9%, with significant price increases in clothing (0.4%), furniture (1%), and appliances (1.9%) due to tariffs [4]. - The labor market shows mixed signals, with private sector job growth exceeding expectations but a rising unemployment rate attributed to a decrease in labor supply [6][7]. - The July non-farm payroll report revealed only 73,000 new jobs, significantly below expectations, leading to a sharp increase in the likelihood of rate cuts [7][8]. Group 4: Global Financial Trends - Central banks sold $36 billion in U.S. Treasuries in April and accumulated 280 tons of gold in the first half of the year, the highest in two decades [4]. - The trend towards "de-dollarization" is gaining momentum, with countries like Brazil and entities in the EU and ASEAN exploring alternatives to the U.S. dollar [4][12].

1. Market Performance - Shanghai gold (Au) rose 0.11% to 777.10 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver (Ag) rose 1.12% to 9318.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold fell 0.03% to 3407.30 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 0.10% to 38.57 dollars/ounce. The US 10-year Treasury yield was 4.24%, and the US dollar index was 97.77 [2] - Various gold and silver products showed different price changes and trading volumes. For example, Au(T+D) rose 0.20% to 774.71 yuan/gram, and Ag(T+D) rose 1.26% to 9278.00 yuan/kilogram [4] 2. Market Outlook - US Treasury Secretary Bessent called for a more aggressive interest rate cut in the Fed's monetary policy. He believes the benchmark interest rate should be lowered by 150 - 175 basis points, with a 50 - basis - point cut in September. Trump also wants to lower the interest rate to 1%. Although there are differences in the appointment of the Fed chairman between Bessent and Trump, Trump's view will dominate, leading the Fed to a more accommodative monetary policy [3] 3. Investment Strategy - It is recommended to buy on dips in the precious metals market. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 766 - 787 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver, it is 9075 - 9520 yuan/kilogram [3] 4. Data Summary - A detailed summary of key gold and silver data is provided, including closing prices, trading volumes, open interest, and inventory changes from August 12 to August 13, 2025, along with their daily changes and historical quantiles [7] 5. Charts and Analysis - Multiple charts are presented, including the relationship between gold and silver prices, trading volumes, open interest, and other factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, and ETF holdings. These charts help analyze the market trends and characteristics of precious metals [9][12][17]