（来源：领盛Optivest） 基本面总结： 1．日本央行预计对未来加息采取"建设性模糊"策略 日本央行预计将在未来加息路径上采取"建设性模糊"策略。报道称，行长植田和男近期就中性利率估计发出了较以往更清晰的指引信号。目前，日本央行 评估名义中性利率位于1%至2.5%的区间。鉴于市场已几乎完全定价日本央行将在12月将政策利率从0.5%上调至0.75%，部分市场参与者据此推测，日本 央行可能会上调中性利率估计，以释放未来仍有继续加息空间的信号。 尽管市场产生此类预期，多名前日本央行官员认为，央行不太可能公布明确的中性利率数字。前日本央行首席经济学家龟田诚策表示，在高度不确定性 下，央行更倾向于通过"建设性模糊"方式保留政策灵活性，而非给出可能束缚自身的具体数字。他预计植田和男最多会指示中性利率在宽幅区间内的大致 位置。 前日本央行官员、现任摩根大通日本首席经济学家藤田彩子预计，日本央行将强调1%仅为预估区间的下限，并暗示实际中性利率可能更高。但她同时指 出，央行仍会表示无法确知中性利率的真实水平，并可能希望市场将其定价在1.5%左右，从而实现预期管理。 报道称，在主要央行中，日本央行并非唯一对披露中性利率细节保 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index opened slightly lower, currently at 25,800 points, down 0.54% [2] - The Hang Seng Tech Index also opened lower, currently at 5,565 points, down 0.88% [4] Sector Performance - The rare earth, non-ferrous metals, and tourism sectors showed strong gains, with companies like Jinli Permanent Magnet and Jiangxi Copper rising over 3% [6] - Conversely, the e-commerce and blockchain sectors experienced significant declines, with Gome Retail dropping over 6% and NetEase-S down over 2% [6] New Listings - Two newly listed stocks opened below their issue prices, with Yujian Xiaomian (HK02408) trading at HKD 5.28, down approximately 25% from its issue price, and Tianyu Semiconductor (HK02658) at HKD 44.6, down about 23% [6] Industry Outlook - UBS has a positive outlook on the Macau gaming industry for next year, expecting strong demand supported by diverse tourism products and increased market promotion, raising revenue growth forecasts for the next two years to 9% and 6% respectively [8] - Guotai Junan Securities noted that short-term adjustments in the Hong Kong market could create opportunities for 2026, highlighting the impact of the "K-shaped economy" and the necessity for a rate cut in December due to rising unemployment rates [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The global economy is turning weak as the US economy shows signs of decline, with factors like weak employment data, high inflation risks, and a shift in corporate strategies, while the AI industry continues to thrive with significant developments from companies like Amazon [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Information - In November, US private - sector jobs decreased by 32,000, the largest drop since March 2023, with small businesses being the hardest - hit, losing 120,000 jobs in total [1] - US service charge prices in November rose further as companies shifted higher costs, which may hinder further interest rate cuts and suppress the financial service industry [1] - The US Commerce Secretary is supporting the robot industry, and the US Department of Transportation may announce a robot working group by the end of the year [1] - Due to the price difference between COMEX and LME, funds are flowing into the US for copper hoarding. COMEX copper inventory has exceeded 400,000 tons, a more than 300% increase from the end of last year, accounting for 62% of the total copper inventory of the three major international exchanges [1] - Amazon's self - developed AI chip Trainium2 has achieved billions of dollars in annualized revenue, with over 1 million chips in production. Amazon also released Trainium3 with 4 - times performance improvement [1] - The yield of Japan's 30 - year treasury bonds reached a record high of 3.445%, and the probability of a December interest rate hike in Japan has risen above 80% [1] - Goldman Sachs macro traders expect a fierce battle between bulls and bears in the US stock market next year. Bulls are driven by the AI boom, $600 billion in capital expenditure by tech giants, and $1.2 trillion in stock buy - back authorizations, while bears are due to high valuations, deteriorating market breadth, over - reliance on the AI theme, and consumption and credit risks in a "K - shaped economy" [1] Global Economic Logic - The Fed's Beige Book shows a K - shaped consumer divide. With weakening employment data, the probability of a December Fed rate cut has risen to 90% [2] - The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in December, which could impact global arbitrage funds [2] - Industry insiders believe there is no AI bubble in the next three years, and companies need to significantly increase AI computing power to meet demand [2] - Morgan Chase strategists estimate that AI data center construction will require at least $5 trillion in the next five years. US data center planning capacity has soared, and developers are building their own power plants [2] - US retail sales in September increased only 0.2%, far lower than expected, indicating a consumer spending cut [2] - Mass layoffs by well - known companies may be an economic warning sign [2] - The global economy is turning weak due to continuous wrong US policies [2]

Rate cuts are likely coming – who will it help?… why the American Dream 1.0 no longer works… evidence of the emerging American Dream 2.0… the critical portfolio action steps to take todayVIEW IN BROWSERAs I write Thursday morning, Wall Street is all but certain we’re going to get a quarter-point interest rate cut at next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows that traders put the odds of that cut at almost 90%.But there’s an important question that Wall Street isn’t asking…What w ...

来源：环球市场播报 欲览更多环球财经资讯，请移步7×24小时实时财经新闻 市场 12月5日收盘：美股周四基本持平，市场静候美联储政策会议 12月5日美股成交额前20：特斯拉跻身美国汽车品牌前10 12月5日热门中概股涨跌不一 蔚来涨4.39%，BOSS直聘跌2.59% 原油价格小幅收高，市场关注乌克兰对俄罗斯石油资产的袭击 现货黄金涨0.16%，报4209.74美元/盎司 欧股上涨 受美联储降息预期提振 宏观 特朗普收紧移民工作许可，扩大对合法移民的打击力度 美国未偿国债首破30万亿美元 自2018年来已翻倍 白宫将于本月向规划委员会提交宴会厅方案 美国地质调查局误报"内华达州5.9级地震" 普京：俄罗斯与印度的能源合作不受政治形势波动的影响 公司 特朗普称美国将与刚果和卢旺达签署关键矿产协议 美国FHFA局长因涉嫌滥用职权面临联邦监管机构的调查 美国劳工统计局公布三季度生产率和四季度雇佣成本指数发布时间 力拓计划通过资产出售筹集100亿美元 苹果宣布高管人事调整 高盛暂停为芝商所宕机事故相关的数据中心公司发售债券 美国银行扩大财富管理客户的加密货币访问权限 派拉蒙天舞掷下50亿美元炸弹，欲在华纳兄弟竞购战中 ...

美银报告称，美国或海外市场今年表现强劲，明年市场波动性将加剧，但人工智能(AI)驱动股市动力持 续，亦是"K型"经济的显著特征。对美国及中国经济持乐观态度，预计经济增长将高于市场普遍预期。 关于AI泡沫即将破裂被夸大，预计明年AI投资将继续保持稳健增长。美银环球研究主管Candace Browning表示，市场对这些担忧依然存在，但其团队仍然看好经济和AI。美银十大预测： 1、美国明年 经济增长预测将高于市场预期。美国明年经济增长2.4%，主要是《大而美的法案》带来财政支持、重 新恢复的《减税与就业法案》激励措施、更友好的贸易政策、持续强劲商业投资，以及美联储减息政策 的滞后效应。 2、人工智能热潮持续，泡沫尚未出现。AI投资周期将持续，美国股市的科技板块依然处 于稳固基础。围绕数据中心、半导体産能和自动化技术的资本支出将保持稳健，不仅能提高生産力，还 将支撑企业的盈利水平。 3、新兴市场受惠更有利宏观环境。弱美元、更低的利率及较低的油价，为新 兴市场在明年继续保持良好表现提供坚实条件。 4、中国增长继续向前。将中国经济增长预测上调至高 于市场平均，预期明年经济增长4.7%，2027年增长4.5%。随着近期贸 ...

Group 1: Bullish Factors - The bullish sentiment for the U.S. stock market in 2026 is primarily driven by the AI boom and significant stimulus measures, with the "Tech Seven" expected to contribute approximately $600 billion in capital expenditures to the U.S. economy [1] - Additional supportive factors for the bullish outlook include the end of quantitative tightening (QT), ongoing fiscal deficits, $1.2 trillion in stock buyback authorizations for 2026, retail investors' continued "buying the dip" behavior, and potential regulatory relaxations in the banking sector [2] Group 2: Bearish Risks - Concerns are growing regarding high stock valuations, which leave little room for error, and the market's increasing dependence on the AI theme, leading to one of the narrowest market breadths in the past two decades [1][3] - The emergence of a "K-shaped economy" is highlighted, where economic recovery is uneven, with financial stress among certain consumer groups and rising default rates among low-income households [3] - The phenomenon of "AI circularity" indicates that the prosperity in the AI sector is increasingly financed through leverage, raising concerns about sustainability [3] Group 3: Market Psychology - A unique risk identified is the lack of "muscle memory" among traders, as the unprecedented bull market over the past 15 years has led many to only experience rising markets, fostering a belief in perpetual support and the effectiveness of "buying the dip" strategies [4] - The potential for a significant market adjustment could favor more experienced investors who have previously navigated bear market cycles [4]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market is likened to a boxing match, with bullish drivers like artificial intelligence and stimulus measures facing off against bearish forces such as high valuations and credit pressures [1][6]. Group 1: Bullish Factors - The S&P 500 index is set to record a double-digit gain for the third consecutive year, with the "seven tech giants" expected to inject approximately $600 billion into the U.S. economy through capital expenditures [1][6]. - Discussions around lowering income taxes and issuing $2,000 stimulus checks are also supportive of the bullish outlook [1][6]. - Additional bullish factors include the end of quantitative tightening, ongoing deficit spending, and $1.2 trillion in buyback authorizations expected by 2026 [1][6]. - Retail investors continue to enter the market and buy on dips, and there are anticipated relaxations in banking regulations and capital requirements by 2026 [1][6]. Group 2: Bearish Factors - Market valuations have been pushed to levels that leave little room for disappointment, with market breadth deteriorating to one of the narrowest levels in the past 20 years, heavily concentrated on the theme of artificial intelligence and its capital expenditures [3][8]. - Concerns about a "K-shaped economy" are rising, leading to increased pressure on certain consumers, higher default rates among low-income households, and new pressures in the private credit sector [3][8]. - The dynamics of the labor market may shift from being a driving force to a hindrance [3][8]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Many Wall Street strategists expect the upward trend in the U.S. stock market to continue into 2026, with firms like Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, UBS, and HSBC predicting double-digit returns supported by solid earnings and Federal Reserve rate cuts [3][8]. - Despite this optimism, there is hesitation among investors regarding bets on artificial intelligence due to ongoing concerns about valuation levels and whether significant investments in computing power will ultimately translate into profits [3][8]. Group 4: Market Behavior and Trader Sentiment - Current traders lack "muscle memory" for sustained pullbacks or corrections, having only experienced an unprecedented bull market over the past 15 years [4][9]. - This has led to a mindset where many participants believe that market bottoms are always present [4][9]. - While nothing can last indefinitely, the current market rally has persisted longer than many anticipated, rewarding those who have held on [4][9]. - If a market correction does occur, the ultimate winners are likely to be those who have previously experienced similar market conditions [4][9].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 1.28% to close at 25,760.73 points, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped by 1.68% and 1.58%, respectively [1][2]. Sector Performance - Major technology stocks and large financial stocks collectively dragged down market sentiment, with notable declines in companies like Bilibili (-3%), NetEase (-2.94%), and Alibaba (-2.17%) [4][5]. - The financial sector also faced losses, particularly in insurance stocks, with China Pacific Insurance down by 4% and China Life Insurance down by over 3% [6]. - The biopharmaceutical sector saw declines, with WuXi AppTec falling by over 3% and other major players like BeiGene and WuXi Biologics also experiencing losses [7]. Commodity and Other Stocks - In contrast, stocks in the non-ferrous metals and precious metals sectors performed well, with China Molybdenum and China Aluminum rising by over 2% [8]. - Airline stocks strengthened, with China Eastern Airlines and China Southern Airlines both gaining over 2%, supported by a new action plan promoting the integration of cultural tourism and civil aviation [9]. Capital Flows - Southbound capital saw a net inflow of 2.279 billion HKD, indicating continued interest in Hong Kong stocks from mainland investors [9]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market adjustments may create opportunities for recovery in 2026, with expectations of a necessary interest rate cut in December due to rising unemployment and declining real wages [11].

Core Viewpoint - The AI-driven stock market boom is a significant feature of the "K-shaped" economy, which also increases risk levels. Concerns about an impending AI bubble burst are considered exaggerated, with expectations for steady growth in AI investment by 2026 [1] Group 1: AI and Market Dynamics - The current AI boom has not yet entered a bubble phase, with historical analysis indicating that the technology sector in the U.S. stock market remains robust [1] - A weaker dollar, declining interest rates, and low oil prices are expected to provide a solid backdrop for emerging markets' strong performance in 2026 [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The company holds an optimistic view on the two most influential economies, the U.S. and China, predicting GDP growth to exceed market expectations [1] - Earnings per share are expected to increase by 14%, while the S&P 500 index is projected to rise only 4-5%, with a year-end target of 7100 points [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve and Housing Market - The company anticipates the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 25 basis points in December and will make two additional cuts in June and July of 2026 [1] - The housing market in 2026 is expected to be a focal point, with performance dependent on Federal Reserve policies, leaning towards an upward risk [1]