Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the U.S. bombing of Iran's nuclear facilities, global investors are highly anxious about potential chain reactions and the possibility of a broader Middle Eastern war [1] - Bitcoin experienced a significant drop, falling below $100,000 with a decline of approximately 3%, while the total market capitalization of major cryptocurrencies evaporated by $250 billion within 24 hours [2][4] - Oil prices surged, with Brent crude futures rising by 11% to $77 per barrel, as traders anticipate further increases due to the uncertain geopolitical situation [6] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Market observers predict that concerns over escalating warfare will likely depress stock prices, while bonds may see a boost [5] - The S&P 500 index has seen a slight decline of about 3% from its historical high in February, indicating a relatively muted market response despite ongoing tensions [5] - Investors are currently focused on the potential implications of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which could significantly impact global oil supply [5] Group 3: Geopolitical Developments - Iranian officials have stated that the U.S. must bear responsibility for the consequences of the war, emphasizing their right to self-defense [7][8] - Israel has confirmed attacks on Iranian military targets, including the city of Bushehr, which houses Iran's only operational nuclear power plant [8] - U.S. officials, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, have called for direct negotiations with Iran, indicating a willingness to engage diplomatically [9]

中国基金报记者 泰勒 兄弟姐妹们啊，今晚不平静！美国下场轰炸了伊朗的核设施之后，全球投资者高度紧张，担 心接下来会发生一连串的连锁反应。甚至可能引发更广泛的中东战争。 比特币跳水，跌破10万美元大关 6月22日晚间， 比特币跌破100000美元，跌幅在3%左右。 受美国卷入以色列、伊朗冲突，该局势或将升级为更大范围地区战争的担忧影响，比特币价 格盘中跳水。在最初对以色列与伊朗交火反应冷淡后，比特币价格已跌破每枚10万美元，以 太坊、瑞波币和其他主流加密货币也纷纷暴跌，在短短24小时内蒸发了2500亿美元的总市 值。 【导读】 比特币已跌破10万美元 在美国对伊朗三大主要核设施发动袭击之后，交易员预测，股市将下跌，原油价格将上涨， 美元可能走强，因为投资者在动荡中寻求避险资产。 市场观察人士表示，战争可能进一步升级的担忧，很可能会压低股价，而债券可能因此受到 提振。如果伊朗采取封锁霍尔木兹海峡（这一关键的石油和天然气运输通道）或袭击驻中东 美军等回应举措，市场波动将更加剧烈。 Premier Miton Investors首席投资官尼尔·比雷尔表示："市场的初步反应将是避险情绪上 升，股市可能会走弱。鉴于当前股 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - Due to the impact of risk - aversion sentiment, domestic stock indices continued to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to make long - term allocations for IH2509 and IF2509, and move positions from IM2506 to IM2509 as the June contract of IM is approaching maturity and its annualized basis rate is relatively high [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - As of June 20, 2025, most domestic and foreign indices declined this week. The Nasdaq rose 0.22%, the S&P 500 fell 0.15%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 2.08%. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.51%, the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.74%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.10%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.66%, and the STAR 50 Index fell 1.55%. In terms of industries, most of the 31 Shenwan primary industry indices declined, with sectors such as beauty care, textile and apparel, and pharmaceutical biology falling more than 3%, while only a few sectors such as banking and communications rose [11][12]. Liquidity - In May, the growth rate of social financing was stable, and the growth rate of M2 declined slightly. The net MLF investment in May was 375 billion yuan, and the 10 - year government bond yield was around 1.65%. The growth rate of social financing remained relatively high, with government bond financing being an important support, but credit growth was still weak. The M2 growth rate declined slightly but remained stable overall, the M1 growth rate increased, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed [22]. Trading Data and Sentiment - The escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict led to the weakening of stock indices this week. The trading volume of the two markets shrank to around one trillion yuan. The number of new A - share accounts opened in January was 1.57 million, in February was 2.83 million, in March was 3.06 million, in April dropped to 1.92 million, and in May continued to drop to 1.555 million [34]. Index Valuation - Index valuations are in the median range. As of June 20, 2025, the latest PB of the Shanghai Composite Index was 14.64 with a quantile of 64.72, and the latest PE of the Wande All - A Index was 19.18 with a quantile of 01.82. In terms of major stock indices, the valuation quantiles are in the order of CSI 1000 > CSI 500 > SSE 300 > SSE 50 [51]. Index Industry Weights (as of December 31, 2024) - In the SSE 50, the weights of banking, food and beverage, and non - bank finance are relatively high, at 19.4%, 16.57%, and 13.07% respectively, and the electronics industry has become the fourth - largest weighted industry. - The weights of the SSE 300 are relatively dispersed, with the top three weighted industries being banking, non - bank finance, and electronics. - The top three weighted industries of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are exactly the same, namely electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and power equipment, but the electronics industry in the CSI 1000 has a higher weight [52].

Group 1: U.S. Military Action - The U.S. conducted a significant military operation against Iran on June 21, targeting three nuclear facilities, marking the most severe action since the 1979 Iranian Revolution [1][10] - President Trump announced the completion of the strikes, claiming that Iran's Fordow nuclear facility "no longer exists" and indicated that further targets could be struck if peace is not achieved [10][12] Group 2: Market Reactions - Despite the escalating conflict, global asset markets showed resilience, with major stock indices like Israel's TA35 and South Korea's KOSPI200 recording gains of over 3% from June 13 to June 20 [2][3] - Oil prices initially surged due to the conflict, with Brent crude rising by 11.48% and WTI by 8.82% during the same period, although they later stabilized [6][12] Group 3: Energy Market Implications - Analysts predict that the U.S. strikes may lead to increased oil prices and a potential panic in global markets, with concerns about the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz for energy transport [13][15] - The market consensus suggests that any military action by the U.S. will be short-lived, as President Trump aims to keep gasoline prices manageable [16][17] Group 4: Gold Market Dynamics - The gold market experienced a rare decline during the conflict, with spot gold prices dropping below $3,370, despite initial spikes above $3,400 [6][22] - Analysts from Deutsche Bank and Citigroup anticipate that geopolitical risk premiums for gold may re-emerge, with predictions of gold prices peaking between $3,100 and $3,500 in Q3 2023 before declining [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report This week, the yield of treasury bonds showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Weak credit demand, an economic outlook, and external uncertainties supported the bond market. Although the Lujiazui Forum signaled financial opening, the lack of unexpected easing measures led to a decline in the bond market. Towards the weekend, stable LPR, a weak stock market, and stable capital contributed to bond market growth and increased expectations for easing policies in the second half of the year [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis Macro - aspect - On May 7, the central bank announced a package of ten measures, including a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut, policy and structural tool interest rate cuts, and housing provident fund loan rate cuts. Special re - loans were also added and expanded in multiple fields [1]. - From May 10 - 12, China and the US held economic and trade talks in Geneva, and a joint statement was released, stating that 24% tariffs would be suspended for 90 days, and the remaining 10% tariffs would be imposed later [1]. - On May 20, the 1 - year LPR dropped from 3.1% to 3.0%, and the over - 5 - year LPR dropped from 3.6% to 3.5%. State - owned and some joint - stock banks also cut deposit rates. On June 20, the LPR remained unchanged [1]. - In May, the CPI decreased by - 0.1% year - on - year [1]. Capital - aspect - On June 20, 2025, the central bank conducted 161.2 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.5% [2]. - The main term repurchase rates for 1D, 7D, and 14D were 1.37%, 1.49%, and 1.73% respectively, and the repurchase rates have recently declined [2]. Market - aspect - On June 20, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.54 yuan, 106.28 yuan, 109.15 yuan, and 121.32 yuan respectively. Their weekly price changes were 0.08%, 0.12%, 0.12%, and 0.66% respectively [2]. - The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were - 0.08 yuan, - 0.07 yuan, - 0.09 yuan, and - 0.12 yuan respectively [2]. Strategy - **Single - side**: With the decline of repurchase rates and the volatile treasury bond futures prices, the 2509 contract is neutral [4]. - **Arbitrage**: Pay attention to the widening of the basis spread [4]. - **Hedging**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure. Short - position investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4]. Yield Curve The short - term volatility of the yield curve has intensified, and the trend still awaits further clarification of the fundamentals and policies [4].

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 6 月 22 日 周度金融市场跟踪 股票方面，本周 A 股整体下跌，小盘股走势弱于大盘股。全周累计看，沪深 300 本 周下跌 0.5%，中证1000 下跌 1.7%，中证 2000 下跌 2.2%。恒生指数本周下跌 1.5%， 恒生科技指数下跌 2.0%。行业方面，银行、通信和电子领涨。值得注意的是在市场 整体走弱的背景下，本周银行指数大幅上涨 2.6%，申万银行指数收盘至历史最高水 平。前期上涨较多的美容护理、纺织服装和医药生物领跌（图表 9），医药生物在连 续多周上涨后本周大幅下跌 4.4%。风格上，本周高估值风格（高市盈率和高市净率 指数）与低估值风格（低市盈率和低市净率指数）连续第二周走势相反（高估值下跌， 低估值上涨）。高估值资产的整体下跌体现了当前市场的避险情绪。周内看，周一（6 月 16 日）市场整体上涨，上午统计局发布经济数据，5 月份国民经济运行总体平稳、 稳中有进，全天超 3500 只股票上涨。周二（6 月 17 日）市场震荡。周三（6 月 18 日）上午陆家嘴论坛"一行两局一会"领导分别发言并发布了一系列政策举措，其中 证监会推出 ...

加密货币市场在周末遭遇短暂抛售，周日凌晨以太坊跌幅一度达到7.7%，比特币短暂跌破10.1万美元。这一轮下跌正值美国对伊朗核设施发动空 袭、地缘政治紧张局势升级之际，投资者避险情绪上升。 市场恐慌情绪导致大规模清算，24小时内约6.79亿美元的加密货币头寸被强制平仓，超过17.1万名交易者遭遇爆仓。其中最大单笔损失来自HTX 交易所的915万美元ETH多头头寸。 流动性提供商Orbit Markets联合创始人Caroline Mauron表示，市场正紧张关注持续的地缘政治发展。她指出，周末期间比特币10万美元和以太坊 2000美元将是关键观察点，而当传统市场重新开盘时，石油价格将成为特别关注的焦点。 比特币相对抗跌 相比以太坊的大幅下跌，比特币表现相对稳定。虽然一度短暂跌破10.1万美元，但在新加坡时间下午1点10分几乎持平，目前在10.2万美元上方交 易。 不过，在短暂下跌后，比特币、以太坊均探底回升，收回失地。 据央视新闻报道美国已完成对伊朗福尔多、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕三处核设施的袭击。 以太坊遇挫 一度跌至五个月低点 以太坊（ETH）在此轮抛售中表现最为疲弱，价格一度跌至2200美元水平附近，创下自去年5 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that geopolitical conflicts have intensified, leading to an increase in gold prices due to its safe-haven appeal, while the strong performance of the US dollar has exerted pressure on gold prices [5][23] - The basic metals sector is experiencing mixed trends, with copper prices remaining stable amid weak domestic demand, while aluminum prices have risen due to geopolitical tensions and inventory reductions [4][18][19] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are supported by safe-haven buying, but face pressure from a strong dollar [5][23] - The report suggests a cautious outlook for various metals, with specific recommendations for companies in the sector [14][22] Summary by Sections 1. Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper: Prices are fluctuating within a high range, with domestic consumption weakening and inventory levels increasing [12][13] - Aluminum: Prices have increased due to geopolitical tensions and ongoing inventory reductions, with current prices at 20,490 CNY/ton [18][19] - Precious Metals: Gold prices have risen to an average of 786.42 CNY/gram, while silver prices have also seen a slight increase [5][23] 2. Minor Metals - Tungsten: Prices are mixed, with some products seeing slight increases while overall market activity remains subdued [6][56] - Rare Earths: Prices for light and heavy rare earths have increased, indicating a potential recovery in the sector [7] 3. Recommendations - Companies to watch include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Hongqiao in the aluminum sector, as well as Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Lingnan in the precious metals sector [14][22]

Core Viewpoint - The recent military action by the U.S. against Iranian nuclear facilities is expected to influence oil prices and market reactions, particularly with an initial spike in oil prices due to heightened risk and uncertainty [3][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following the U.S. military strike, investors anticipate a potential rise in oil prices when markets reopen, driven by instinctive risk-averse behavior [3]. - Mark Spindel, CEO of Potomac River Capital, suggests that initial market reactions may include panic, leading to an increase in oil prices [3]. - The uncertainty surrounding the safety of U.S. personnel abroad may contribute to increased market volatility, especially in the oil sector [3]. Group 2: Long-term Considerations - While short-term fluctuations in oil prices are likely, long-term investors should focus on broader trends rather than immediate market noise [4]. - The impact of geopolitical events on oil prices is influenced by various factors, including supply-demand dynamics, global economic conditions, and monetary policies [4]. - Investors are advised to remain calm and analyze how the market digests the news before making decisions, emphasizing the importance of a long-term perspective in investment strategies [5].

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