摘要 美国"对等关税"已经落地，"滞"与"胀"如何演绎成为市场焦点。滞与胀的强弱、次序和持续性的比较或将 成为货币政策和金融市场表现的主要矛盾。 陈达飞 首席宏观分析师 王茂宇 高级宏观分析师 联系人： 王茂宇 报告正文 二、海外大类资产&基本面&重要事件：特朗普关税态度软化 （一）大类资产：美股三大股指齐跌，黄金价格上涨 当周，发达市场股指多数上涨，新兴市场股指多数上涨。发达市场股指，德国DAX、英国富时100、日经 225分别上涨4.1%、3.9%、3.4%，道琼斯工业指数、纳斯达克指数分别下跌2.7%和2.6%；新兴市场股指，印 度SENSEX30、南非富时综指、韩国综合指数分别上涨4.5%、3.6%、2.1%。 赵 伟 申万宏源证券首席经济学家 二、大类资产&海外事件&数据：特朗普关税态度软化，3月美国零售反弹 美股三大股指齐跌，黄金价格再创新高。 当周，纳指下跌2.6%，日经225上涨3.4%；10Y美债收益率下行 14bp至4.34%；美元指数下跌0.5%至99.23，离岸人民币降至7.3022；WTI原油上涨7.7%至64.7美元/桶， COMEX黄金上涨5.0%至3323.1美元/盎司。 特朗 ...

央视记者获悉，当地时间4月19日，美国纽约、华盛顿等多个城市举行抗议活动。 调查发现，44%的受访者认可特朗普的处理方式，51%的受访者表示反对。在经济问题方面，特朗普的 支持率为43%，反对率为55%。 参与此次调查的民主党民意调查机构哈特事务所（Hart Associates）的合伙人杰伊·坎贝尔表示，特朗普 连任的初衷就是改善经济，但到目前为止，人们并不满意他们所看到的结果。 该民意调查于4月9日至13日对1000名美国人进行，误差幅度为3.1个百分点。 全美多地举行抗议活动 反对美政府近期政策 抗议活动组织者表示，他们抗议特朗普政府侵犯公民权利和宪法的行为，包括驱逐大量移民、通过解雇 众多政府工作人员以及实际上关闭多个机构来缩减联邦政府规模。 此外，抗议者计划在特斯拉汽车经销店外举行活动，抗议埃隆·马斯克及其领导的政府效率部在精简联 邦政府机构中所扮演的角色。 特朗普在经济问题上支持率跌至其总统生涯新低 当地时间4月19日，据美国消费者新闻与商业频道（CNBC）报道，CNBC最新全美经济调查显示，由于 美国总统特朗普对关税、通胀和政府支出的处理方式引发广泛不满，其在经济问题上的支持率创下总统 生涯新低 ...

Group 1 - The Trump administration is considering establishing a special task force to address supply chain crises resulting from high tariffs on Chinese goods [1] - Trump has expressed a desire to avoid further increases in tariffs, indicating a potential willingness to negotiate with China [3] - The ongoing trade war has escalated, with tariffs on Chinese goods increasing significantly, reaching up to 145% in some cases [5] Group 2 - Despite claims of progress in negotiations with various countries, no preliminary agreements have been announced [7] - China's response to the trade war has been firm, indicating readiness to continue the conflict until a decisive victory is achieved [7] - The internal sentiment in China emphasizes unity and resilience against the trade war, contrasting with perceived discontent among the American public regarding Trump's tariff policies [7]

从制造到创造，从不可能到可能。《晚点LatePost》旗下汽车品牌。 晚点Auto . 以下文章来源于晚点Auto ，作者晚点团队 截至目前，宁德时代、摩根大通和美国银行暂无公开回应。 宁德时代 2 月 25 日提交港交所的文件显示，此次 IPO 的保荐人为中国国际金融香港证券有限公司、 中信建投国际融资有限公司、摩根大通（亚太）和美银美林（亚太），高盛、摩根士丹利、瑞银为整 目前，多数投资者认为这只是 "噪音"。 文 丨 李梓楠 编辑 丨 王姗姗 晚点独家获悉，4 月 18 日摩根大通告知了部分计划认购宁德时代港股股票的机构投资者， 原定于 4 月最后一周至五月初的 IPO，被推迟到五一假期之后。摩根大通是负责此次宁德时代赴港二次上市的 四个承销商之一。 一天前，美国众议院中国事务特别委员会致信要求摩根大通和美国银行退出宁德时代赴港上市的承销 事 宜 ， 理 由 是 今 年 1 月 初 美 国 国 防 部 将 宁 德 时 代 纳 入 " 中 国 军 事 企 业 清 单 "( Chinese Military Companies List，简称 " CMC 清单" )。彼时，宁德时代已公开回应从未参与过任何涉 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the United States' "reciprocal tariffs" could lead to significant economic losses for Germany and the European Union over the next four years [1] - A research report from the German Economic Institute indicates that Germany may incur losses amounting to €290 billion due to these tariffs [1] - The total projected loss for the European Union is estimated at €1.1 trillion as a result of the same tariff measures [1]

投资人一度担心宁德时代上市进程会因此遇阻，但据多位接近承销商的消息人士在 4 月 18 日透露， 目前上市相关计划不会改变，也不会临时更换承销商。 目前，多数投资者认为这只是 "噪音"。 文 丨 李梓楠 编辑 丨 王姗姗 晚点独家获悉，4 月 18 日摩根大通告知了部分计划认购宁德时代港股股票的机构投资者， 原定于 4 月最后一周至五月初的 IPO，被推迟到五一假期之后。摩根大通是负责此次宁德时代赴港二次上市的 四个承销商之一。 一天前，美国众议院中国事务特别委员会致信要求摩根大通和美国银行退出宁德时代赴港上市的承销 事 宜 ， 理 由 是 今 年 1 月 初 美 国 国 防 部 将 宁 德 时 代 纳 入 " 中 国 军 事 企 业 清 单 "( Chinese Military Companies List，简称 " CMC 清单" )。彼时，宁德时代已公开回应从未参与过任何涉及军事的业务或 活动，美国国防部的这项决定实属错误。 当前事件的短期变数是摩根大通和美银是否能继续服务宁德时代的港股 IPO 。前述消息人士称，目前 部分认购宁德时代股份的机构投资者已经锁单，最后一轮将投资者请到公司做参观和业绩推介 ...

导读： 从"对等关税"到美方"极限施压"，新一轮关税战在2025年卷土重来，且愈演愈烈。身处其中的科学仪器企业该如何应对，找寻出路？ 诚邀广大科学仪器从业人员莅临第十八届中国科学仪器发展年会（ACCSI 2 0 2 5）现场，参与科学仪器热门话题讨论，聆听市场前沿的真知灼 见。 仪器发展高峰论坛 05月12日 11:00-12:00 를 宾 特别提示 微信公众号机制调整，请点击顶部"仪器信息网" → 右上方"…" → 设为 ★ 星标，否则很可能无法看到我们的推送。 对于大多数科学仪器企业而言，2 0 2 4年是一个极具挑战的年份，外部环境错综复杂，市场竞争愈演愈烈，"保生存、稳增长"成为企业经营的第 一 要 务 。 与 此 同 时 ， 大 规 模 设 备 更 新 引 爆 仪 器 采 购 ， 国 产 仪 器 出 海 高 歌 猛 进 ， 人 工 智 能 与 仪 器 融 合 渐 入 佳 境 ， 一 切 似 乎 正 朝 着 好 的 方 向 演 变. . . . . . 但在2 0 2 5年4月初，美国政府冒然挑起的全球关税大战将平静打破。以"未履行贸易承诺"为由，美国率先对中国所有输美商品进行了多次加征 关税，累计税 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the easing of the US "reciprocal tariff" policy supports the stabilization and rebound of oil prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the downward macro - economic pressure and the expected deterioration of fundamentals due to OPEC's production increase continue to suppress oil prices. After significant fluctuations, oil prices may continue to oscillate in a low - level range [4]. - Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are dragged down by the cost side and have difficulty in having independent market trends. The high - sulfur variety's short - term strong support pattern remains unchanged, but its upward space is restricted. The low - sulfur variety has not shown significant pressure for the time being [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - The US Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) strengthened restrictions on Iran's oil trade, adding a Chinese independent refinery and multiple shipping companies and vessels to the sanctions list. On April 17, the domestic SC main contract rose 1.88% to 482.7 yuan/barrel, and closed at 495.3 yuan/barrel at night. Internationally, WTI closed up 1.92 dollars/barrel at 63.75 dollars/barrel, and Brent closed up 1.96 dollars/barrel at 66.92 dollars/barrel [2]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Situation - Powell mentioned that the Trump administration's "reciprocal tariff" policy may lead to persistent inflation and slower economic growth, and reiterated not to rush to cut interest rates. Trump criticized Powell, and the conflict between them may affect US economic policies and financial market stability. Ukraine and the US signed a memorandum on a mineral agreement, and Trump said the agreement would be signed on the 24th [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Fundamentals Supply - The US imposed the eighth round of sanctions on Iran, targeting its oil trade network, which increased concerns about a decline in Iran's crude oil production. The IEA expects global oil supply to increase by 1.2 million barrels per day this year, 260,000 barrels per day lower than last month's forecast. Russia plans to keep its crude oil production and exports stable until 2050 [13][14]. Demand - Due to trade tensions, the IEA and OPEC both lowered their forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2025. China's imports of Iranian crude oil reached a record high of 1.8 million barrels per day in March, with Shandong alone absorbing over 1.5 million barrels per day [15]. 3.4 Inventory Situation - The US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 515,000 barrels in the week ending April 11. The refinery operating rate decreased by 0.4%, indicating that the spring maintenance this year may last longer than usual. The terminal demand was weak, and the reduction in gasoline inventory slowed down [3]. 3.5 Price Monitoring Crude Oil - On April 17, the futures prices of SC, WTI, and Brent all rose, with increases of 3.32%, 2.92%, and 2.71% respectively. Most of the spot prices also increased, and the price differences between different varieties changed to varying degrees [7]. Fuel Oil - On April 17, the futures prices of FU, LU, and NYMEX fuel oil all increased, with increases of 2.42%, 3.36%, and 1.26% respectively. Most of the spot and paper - cargo prices also increased, and the inventory in Singapore increased by 3.93% [8]. 3.6 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - The domestic SC main contract and some spot prices rose. Internationally, WTI and Brent prices also increased. The US - Iran sanctions, trade tensions, and other factors affected the supply and demand of the oil market [9][10][13]. 3.7 Industry Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent contracts, US crude oil production, OPEC crude oil production, and various inventory and operating rate data, which visually show the historical trends and current situations of the oil market [18][21][23]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the negative impact of Trump's tariffs on the U.S. economy, highlighting concerns over rising prices and inflation for both businesses and consumers [1][3]. Group 1: Impact on U.S. Economy - California has become the first state to sue the Trump administration over tariffs, claiming they are illegal and causing economic chaos [1]. - Professor Nick Vyas warns that the tariffs will increase the cost of imported goods, leading to price and inflation pressures on U.S. businesses and consumers [1][3]. - The World Trade Organization (WTO) reports that U.S. tariffs are severely deteriorating global trade prospects, with a projected 0.2% decline in global goods trade by 2025, and a 12.6% drop in North American exports [3]. Group 2: Manufacturing and Labor Market - Vyas expresses skepticism about the return of labor-intensive industries to the U.S. due to high labor costs, even in the medium to long term [3][4]. - He suggests that capital-intensive industries, such as electronics and pharmaceuticals, are more likely to thrive in the U.S. due to their reliance on advanced manufacturing and technology [3]. Group 3: Global Supply Chain Effects - Tariffs are not only affecting the U.S. economy but also have profound implications for global supply chains, with some Chinese goods facing tariffs as high as 245% [5]. - Vyas indicates that sustained high tariffs could lead to significant challenges for global economic growth, potentially being the largest challenge since World War II [6]. - The "friend-shoring" policy introduced during the Biden administration aims to limit supply chain outsourcing to trusted countries, but the current tariff situation undermines this strategy [6]. Group 4: Regional Economic Impact - Southeast Asian countries are particularly affected by the tariffs, with Vietnam facing a 46% tariff and Cambodia even higher at 49% [6]. - Vyas notes that high tariffs will weaken global competitiveness and force companies to seek new trade routes or relocate production [7].

证券研究报告 宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521040002 | | 联系电话：010-83326858 | | 邮 箱： xieyunliang@cindasc.com | 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱： mailinyue@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 对等关税与美国国内不同利益群体的博弈 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 4 月 17 日 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号金 隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [➢Table_Summary] 特朗普"对等关税"反复多变或与美国国内博弈有关。美国并非铁板一块， 笼统地讨论美国如何可能并不确切，特朗普背后至少有红脖子劳工、金融 资本、科技资本等几种不同利益群体，"对等关税"计划的反复多变可能 ...