Core Viewpoint - The gold price is currently experiencing fluctuations near historical highs, with a divergence in bullish and bearish sentiment. The upcoming U.S. economic data, particularly the Markit PMI, is expected to significantly influence short-term price movements [5]. Group 1: Market Predictions - If the U.S. Markit PMI data released on September 23 is weak, it may reinforce expectations for continued Fed rate cuts, potentially supporting gold prices and allowing them to test the $3700-$3710 resistance area [2]. - Conversely, if the PMI data is strong, it could bolster the U.S. dollar and dampen expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts, putting downward pressure on gold prices, with key support levels to watch at $3660-$3650 and possibly down to $3630-$3620 [2]. Group 2: Key Economic Indicators - Important upcoming economic data includes the U.S. September Markit PMI (September 23), the August core PCE price index (September 26), and the second quarter GDP final value along with August durable goods orders (September 25). These indicators are crucial for assessing the health of the U.S. economy and will influence market sentiment [3]. - The remarks from Fed officials, particularly from newly appointed member Miran, who has previously advocated for more significant rate cuts, could also impact market expectations regarding interest rates [3]. Group 3: Support Factors for Gold - The long-term upward trend for gold remains intact, supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts, global central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical uncertainties [2][5]. - Notably, the Chinese central bank has been increasing its gold reserves for ten consecutive months, providing medium to long-term support for gold prices [3].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Last week, gold and silver continued their strong upward trend, with silver showing a more robust performance. The weakening employment and consumer confidence in the US, along with limited inflation recovery, strengthened the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, boosting precious metal prices. Silver also showed a significant catch - up effect. [2] - In the short term, with the almost certain rate cut in September, precious metal prices are expected to remain high and strong. However, the recent rise may have fully priced in the September rate - cut expectation, so there is a risk of "buy the rumor, sell the fact," and short - term market volatility may intensify. [4] - In the long term, gold prices still have upward potential due to factors such as the high probability of a Fed rate cut in September, global geopolitical instability, intensifying anti - globalization, and the weakening of the US dollar's credit, which support central banks' net gold purchases. [4] Summary by Directory PART ONE: Market and Fundamental Indicator Tracking - **Price Movements**: Last week, London spot gold broke through the $3650/ounce mark, and Shanghai gold futures' main contract exceeded 840 yuan/kg, both hitting new highs. London silver broke through the $42/ounce mark, and Shanghai silver futures' main contract exceeded 10,000 yuan/kg, reaching a high since the end of December 2012. [2] - **Data Metrics**: For gold, London spot gold rose 1.58% week - on - week, and Shanghai gold's main contract rose 2.28%. For silver, London spot silver rose 2.91% week - on - week, and Shanghai silver's main contract rose 2.27%. There were also changes in various indicators such as basis, spread, ETF holdings, and inventory. [3] PART TWO: Main Macroeconomic Indicator Tracking - **US Economic Indicators** - **GDP**: The US second - degree GDP growth was strong, but consumer confidence declined again. Manufacturing and service PMI both dropped, and retail sales data showed mixed trends. [55][56] - **Employment**: The employment market cooled significantly. The August non - farm payrolls were weak, the unemployment rate rose, job vacancies decreased, labor participation increased, and wage growth slowed down both month - on - month and year - on - year. [62][66] - **Inflation**: There was a rising pressure on inflation. Core commodity inflation increased, while core service inflation decreased. Consumer inflation expectations also rose significantly. [68][71] - **European Economic Indicators** - **Eurozone**: The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI recovered, while the service PMI declined. GDP showed a bottom - up trend, and inflation data in the Eurozone and the UK were also presented. [75][77] - **Central Bank Gold Purchases** - China's central bank has been increasing its gold reserves for 10 consecutive months. As of the end of August, China's gold reserves were about 2302.279 tons, with a month - on - month increase of about 1.87 tons. [85] - Global central banks maintained net gold purchases in 2025. In the first half of 2025, they net - purchased 415.1 tons of gold, a year - on - year decrease of about 20.4%. [85]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights a historic surge in gold prices, with spot gold breaking through $3,650 per ounce, driven by three major factors: expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, weakening dollar credibility, and unprecedented gold purchases by global central banks [2][4][5]. - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has significantly weakened the dollar index, which fell to 97.41, the lowest closing price since July 24, and has led to a decrease in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 4.042%, making gold more attractive as its holding cost decreases [4]. - Concerns over the stability of the dollar as a global reserve currency have prompted central banks to diversify their foreign exchange reserves, reducing reliance on dollar assets, with the dollar's share in global reserves dropping from 71% in 2000 to 58% currently [5][7]. Group 2 - Central banks have significantly increased their gold purchases, with a total net acquisition of 483 tons in the first half of 2025, a 12% year-on-year increase, which reduces gold circulation in the market and signals a move away from the dollar [7]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and Europe, have heightened risk aversion, leading to increased investments in gold as a safe haven, with global gold ETF holdings rising by 38 tons in August 2025 [7][8]. - The changing global economic landscape is reflected in the declining ratio of the S&P 500 index to gold prices, indicating growing investor concerns about economic prospects and a shift towards lower volatility assets like gold [8]. Group 3 - Industrial demand for gold is rising, particularly in high-tech sectors such as AI and semiconductor packaging, with a projected global industrial gold demand of approximately 270 tons in 2025, of which China contributes 30% [8]. - The application of gold in cutting-edge technologies is growing at an annual rate of 12%, showcasing gold's evolving role in the digital age and its integration with emerging technological needs [8].

Core Viewpoint - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, are experiencing a significant bull market driven by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, a weakening dollar, central bank purchases, and increasing geopolitical and economic uncertainties [1][6]. Market Performance - As of the latest update, Hunan Silver hit the daily limit, Xiaocheng Technology surged over 5%, and Hunan Gold rose over 3%, with other gold stocks like Zhongjin Gold and Sichuan Gold also following suit [2]. - Spot gold has surpassed $3,650 per ounce, increasing by 0.48% in a single day, while spot silver has reached $42 per ounce, marking the highest level since September 2011 [3]. Year-to-Date Performance - Year-to-date, gold has risen over 39%, and silver has increased nearly 45% [4]. Historical Context - Gold prices have set over 30 nominal records this year and have surpassed the inflation-adjusted historical peak from 1980 [6]. - The primary drivers behind this surge include anticipated rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, a weak dollar, central bank buying, and heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainties [6]. Federal Reserve Insights - The latest U.S. economic data presents mixed signals, with August CPI year-on-year at 2.9%, matching expectations, while initial jobless claims rose by 27,000 to 263,000, exceeding expectations and reaching the highest level since October 2021 [7]. - The market is almost certain that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points in September, with an 80.2% probability of a 50 basis point cut in October [10]. Central Bank Gold Purchases - Since Q3 2020, global central banks have net purchased gold for 14 consecutive quarters, reflecting a strategic shift in reserve asset structures from U.S. dollar bonds to physical assets like gold [15]. - According to Crescat Capital, the share of gold in central bank reserves has surpassed U.S. Treasuries for the first time since 1996, indicating a significant global rebalancing [15]. Future Price Predictions - Goldman Sachs has projected that gold prices could exceed $4,000 per ounce next year, with a long-term price forecast for 2029 and beyond raised to $3,300 per ounce from a previous estimate of $2,850 [17]. - The global commodities team at Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about gold, suggesting that prices could reach $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026, with extreme scenarios potentially approaching $5,000 [18]. Silver Market Dynamics - Silver analyst Peter Krauth emphasizes that the Federal Reserve's shift to a dovish stance is a crucial mid-term driver for precious metals [19]. - Historical data indicates that during past rate-cut cycles, silver typically bottoms out mid-cycle and surges post-rate cuts, with average gains of 332% over 12-18 months [20].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing an "epic" bull market, with international gold prices surpassing $3,600 per ounce and domestic gold jewelry prices reaching ¥1,070 per gram, driven by factors such as interest rate cuts, a weak dollar, and central bank gold purchases [2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of September 9, the London spot gold price peaked at $3,674.78 per ounce, marking a significant increase from $2,625 at the beginning of the year, with a year-to-date rise of over 40% [2]. - Domestic concept stocks like Western Gold and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining have seen collective price surges [2]. Group 2: Driving Factors - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has been a major catalyst, with market predictions suggesting three potential rate cuts this year, including a 50 basis point cut in September [2]. - The U.S. dollar index has fallen to 98.1, a new low since April 2022, contributing to the acceleration of gold prices as the dollar's credibility weakens [2]. - Central banks globally are increasing gold reserves, with China's gold reserves reaching 74.02 million ounces by the end of August, and a total increase of 166 tons in global official gold reserves in Q2 [3]. Group 3: Long-term Trends - The current surge in gold prices reflects a profound transformation in the global trade and financial system, with the U.S. challenging its previous international cooperation frameworks [3]. - The process of de-dollarization is accelerating, with the dollar's share in global allocated foreign exchange reserves decreasing to 57.7% by Q1 2025 [3]. - Gold has surpassed the euro to become the second-largest reserve asset globally, indicating a shift towards a diversified reserve system that includes the dollar, euro, renminbi, and gold [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Institutions are generally bullish on gold, with targets set as high as $5,000 per ounce. Predictions include a baseline forecast of $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 from Goldman Sachs and a target of $3,800 per ounce by Morgan Stanley for Q4 2025 [4]. - A consensus among institutions suggests that investors should consider gold as a fundamental asset in their portfolios, with strategies for accumulation during market corrections [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Fed rate - cut expectations (weak non - farm data pushing the probability of a September rate cut to 100%) and geopolitical risk - aversion sentiment support the gold price. Global central banks' continuous gold purchases (China has increased holdings for 10 consecutive months) and the weakening dollar further enhance the value of gold allocation. The medium - to - long - term driving factors are solid, but short - term data volatility risks should be watched[3]. - Copper: In the short term, copper prices may first decline and then rise. The weak US employment data may continue to affect copper prices, and in the short term, it may still seek support around 79,000 yuan per ton. If the non - farm data does not ferment further, combined with the expected increase in the copper rod operating rate and the decline in LME copper inventories, copper prices may find support at the 20 - day moving average and are still expected to rise above 80,000 yuan per ton[17]. - Aluminum: In the short term, aluminum is oscillating strongly, but there is pressure above. To break through the 21,000 pressure level, the peak - season expectations need to be fulfilled, demand should improve significantly, and inventories should start to decline. With policy support, there is also a bottom for the aluminum price, and the weekly price range is 20,500 - 21,000[37]. - Zinc: The supply side is currently in a surplus state. The market's expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" are average. Currently, it is reported that many galvanizing plants have reduced or stopped production, and the operating rate needs to be continuously monitored. LME inventories are continuously decreasing, and the pattern of strong external and weak internal zinc prices in terms of inventory is becoming more obvious. In the short term, it is mainly oscillating, observing the macro and consumption[66]. - Nickel: Nickel ore's September first - phase benchmark price has declined, mainly affected by the recent correction of nickel prices, with a firm premium; other nickel product benchmark prices are basically stable, and MIHP has a certain upward trend due to new - energy demand. The new - energy sector still has support, and the overall supply is relatively tight, expected to remain strong. Nickel - iron also shows a strong trend, but the narrowing spread between stainless - steel and nickel - iron may limit the further rise of nickel - iron prices. Stainless steel maintains an oscillating trend, and there are still some games at the spot level[81]. - Tin: In the short term, the weak US employment data may affect tin prices for 1 - 2 days. After that, despite certain demand pressure, tin prices are expected to return to 270,000 yuan per ton due to the tight supply side[96]. - Lithium Carbonate: The current market has entered an oscillating adjustment stage. It is recommended to focus on the actual downstream receiving situation. If the conversion of orders into actual transactions is less than expected, the market may maintain an oscillating and weak pattern; if the receiving demand is gradually released, the price is expected to be supported[106]. - Silicon: Currently, attention should be paid to the Silicon Industry Conference this Wednesday. Recently, there are many rumors, and industrial silicon and polysilicon may be affected. There is no good strategy for the time being, and they are regarded as oscillating. In the short term, the risk of price fluctuations caused by news stimuli should be guarded against[115]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Gold - Price Influence Factors: Fed rate - cut expectations, geopolitical risk - aversion sentiment, global central banks' gold purchases, and the weakening dollar support the gold price[3]. - Market Data: Provided price trends of SHFE gold and silver futures, COMEX gold and silver ratio, gold and US Treasury real interest rates, gold and the US dollar index, and gold and silver long - term fund holdings[4][9][12]. Copper - Price Outlook: Short - term price may first decline and then rise, affected by US employment data, copper rod operating rate, and LME copper inventories[17]. - Market Data: Presented copper futures and spot data, including prices, price changes, and spreads. Also provided data on copper imports, processing fees, scrap - to - refined copper price differences, and warehouse receipts[18][23][33]. Aluminum - Aluminum: The short - term trend is oscillating strongly with upper - limit pressure and lower - limit support. The market is affected by macro factors, supply - demand fundamentals, and inventory conditions[37]. - Alumina: The supply is in surplus, and factors such as aluminum - bauxite imports, inventory increases, and production resumptions after environmental restrictions affect its price[38]. - Casting Aluminum Alloy: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cancellation of tax - return policies may support the alloy price. The futures - market trend generally follows that of Shanghai aluminum, with cost - side support[39]. - Market Data: Provided aluminum and alumina futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data[40][53][62]. Zinc - Supply - Demand Situation: The supply side is in surplus, and the demand side's expectations for the peak season are average. LME inventories are decreasing, showing a strong - external and weak - internal pattern[66]. - Market Data: Presented zinc futures and spot prices, spreads, and inventory data[67][72][77]. Nickel - Market Conditions: Nickel ore prices are affected by nickel price corrections, new - energy demand supports MIHP, and the supply of new - energy products is relatively tight. Nickel - iron and stainless - steel are oscillating, and the market is affected by multiple factors such as the US dollar index and export difficulties[81]. - Market Data: Provided nickel and stainless - steel futures prices, inventory data, and prices and inventories of related products such as nickel ore, nickel - iron[82][87][95]. Tin - Price Trend: Short - term price is affected by US employment data, and then may rise due to tight supply. The production decline in August was affected by factory maintenance and reduced tin - concentrate imports[96]. - Market Data: Presented tin futures and spot prices, inventory data, and related industry indices such as the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index[97][100][101]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Stage: Currently in an oscillating adjustment stage. The market trend depends on the downstream receiving situation, and there is a lot of market speculation[106]. - Market Data: Provided lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, price differences, and inventory data[107][109][113]. Silicon - Market Outlook: Attention should be paid to the Silicon Industry Conference. Affected by rumors, it is in an oscillating state, and the risk of price fluctuations caused by news stimuli should be guarded against[115]. - Market Data: Presented industrial silicon and polysilicon spot and futures prices, price differences, and production, inventory, and cost data[116][117][131].

Group 1 - Domestic and international gold prices have surged recently, with Shanghai gold trading at 832 CNY per gram and futures above 834 CNY, both hitting historical highs [1] - International gold prices have also seen significant increases, with London spot gold surpassing 3600 USD per ounce and reaching over 3690 USD in New York futures [1] - The latest round of gold price increases began on August 20, with domestic prices rising over 7% and international prices increasing by approximately 10% in just over ten trading days [1] Group 2 - The World Gold Council reported that domestic gold prices are currently at a discount compared to international prices, with a difference of 8.1 USD per ounce as of September 5, which expanded to 16.7 USD in September [1] - Analysts attribute the rise in gold prices to several factors, including expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, a weakening dollar, increased global central bank gold purchases, and heightened geopolitical uncertainties [1] - In August, global gold ETF inflows reached 53.4 tons, significantly higher than July's 22.6 tons, indicating strong demand for gold [2] - UBS has raised its forecast for annual gold ETF demand from 450 tons to nearly 600 tons, anticipating continued strong demand from global central banks [2]

Group 1 - Gold prices have recently surged, breaking the $3,500 per ounce mark, reaching a historical high, while silver prices have also risen above $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011 [1][3] - The market is speculating that gold could reach $4,000 per ounce in the near future, indicating strong bullish sentiment [1] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to two main factors: the impending interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and growing concerns about stock market bubbles, particularly in technology stocks [3] Group 2 - Central banks, especially in emerging markets, are diversifying their foreign exchange reserves by increasing gold holdings, which is a significant trend impacting gold prices [3] - The proportion of gold in foreign central banks' international reserves has surpassed that of U.S. Treasury securities for the first time since 1996, marking a historic shift in reserve management [3] - The long-term outlook for gold remains strong, but short-term price movements may be influenced by upcoming U.S. employment data and investor behavior following holidays [5] Group 3 - Various ways for individuals to participate in the gold market include physical gold (bars and coins), gold ETFs, and gold stocks, each with different risk and liquidity profiles [5][6] - Gold stocks may offer higher returns compared to gold itself during a bull market, but they also come with greater volatility [6] - For those looking to hedge against market risks, physical gold or gold ETFs are recommended over gold stocks [6]

Core Viewpoint - Since the end of April, gold has entered a volatile market due to a complex balance of factors including tariff impacts, U.S. fiscal policies, geopolitical tensions, and central bank gold purchases. However, changes in these factors may initiate an upward trend for gold prices, with a model prediction from CITIC Securities suggesting gold prices could exceed $3,730 per ounce by year-end under a neutral scenario [1][7]. Summary by Relevant Categories Market Conditions - Gold has been in a volatile market since late April, influenced by a series of short-term factors that have reached a balance [2]. Bullish Factors - The inflationary pressure from Trump's tariff policies is beginning to manifest, with U.S. CPI inflation rising month-on-month from May to July, while non-farm employment has shown a notable decline. Private sector consumption growth in Q2 was also weak, indicating the initial effects of tariff-induced stagflation [3]. - Geopolitical instability has persisted in Q2, with ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine situation and escalating tensions in the Israel-Palestine conflict [3]. - Market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are becoming clearer, influenced by pressure from Trump on the Fed and actions regarding Fed board appointments [3]. Bearish Factors - Since late April, market expectations regarding the intensity of Trump's tariff policies have cooled. Following a sharp tariff shock on April 2, the Trump administration has shifted to a more pragmatic negotiation phase, leading to a decline in tariff policy expectations [4]. - Global central bank net gold purchases slowed in Q2, with approximately 166 tons purchased, reflecting a year-on-year decline according to the World Gold Council [4]. - There are signs of a recovery in risk appetite within China's capital markets, with strong performance in the A-share market suppressing domestic gold market inflows [4]. Changing Dynamics Favoring Gold - Expectations regarding tariff policy uncertainty have decreased significantly, while the stagflation effects of tariffs may gradually emerge, supporting higher gold prices. Trump has claimed to have reached trade agreements with major partners, reducing market risk expectations, although future volatility risks remain [5]. - The "Big and Beautiful Act" is expected to lead to uncontrolled expansion of U.S. national debt, with an anticipated additional $500 billion deficit next year, which may limit the economic support from this act. The act's tax cuts primarily benefit middle and high-income groups, while spending cuts affect low-income groups, potentially limiting its economic support effectiveness [5]. - Geopolitical factors are not expected to negatively impact gold this year, with ongoing tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict likely to persist for an extended period [5]. - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to adopt a more proactive rate-cutting path, potentially leading to a more stable bull market for gold. Powell's statements at the Jackson Hole conference suggest a shift towards a more accommodative stance, with early rate cuts likely to elevate inflation risks above the risks of an economic hard landing, stabilizing the upward trend for gold [5]. - Global central bank gold purchases remain a crucial support factor, with a focus on the value of gold purchases rather than weight, indicating ongoing expansion in central bank gold holdings [6].

Group 1 - Gold prices have recently surged, breaking the $3500 per ounce mark, reaching a historical high, while silver prices have also risen above $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011 [1][3] - The market is speculating that gold could reach $4000 per ounce, indicating strong bullish sentiment among investors [1] - The recent price movements in precious metals are attributed to two main factors: the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and concerns over stock market bubbles, particularly in technology stocks [3] Group 2 - Central banks, especially in emerging markets, are diversifying their foreign exchange reserves by increasing gold holdings, which is a significant trend impacting gold prices [3] - The proportion of gold in foreign central banks' international reserves has surpassed that of U.S. Treasury securities for the first time since 1996, marking a historic shift in reserve management [3] - The long-term outlook for gold remains strong, but short-term price movements may depend on U.S. employment data and investor behavior following holiday periods [5] Group 3 - There are various ways for individuals to participate in the gold market, including physical gold, gold ETFs, and gold stocks, each with its own advantages and disadvantages [6] - Physical gold is seen as a stable asset but has lower liquidity, while gold ETFs offer flexibility and lower costs, making them a popular choice among investors [6] - Gold stocks may provide higher returns compared to gold itself during bullish phases, but they also come with higher volatility [6]