Core Viewpoint - Fitch Ratings indicates that rising trade tariffs and policy uncertainty will weaken global growth prospects and exacerbate the risks of tightening financial conditions [1] Group 1: Global Economic Impact - The escalation of the global trade war and uncertainty regarding tariff outcomes pose significant negative shocks to the global economy [1] - The impact on global trade volume, supply chains, investment, and international relations is substantial [1] Group 2: Financial Environment - High levels of public finance and political risks remain prevalent [1] - The uncertainty regarding the extent and timing of price and economic activity impacts further complicates the Federal Reserve's policy interest rate path and increases volatility risks in the financial environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The World Bank has revised its global GDP growth forecast down from 2.7% to 2.3%, indicating that trade disputes and policy uncertainties will hinder economic growth [1] Economic Outlook - The reduction in GDP growth expectations reflects ongoing challenges in the global economy, particularly due to escalating trade tensions and unpredictable policy environments [1] - The forecast suggests that these factors will have a significant impact on economic performance in the near term [1]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's "Beige Book" indicates a slight decline in U.S. economic activity, which raises concerns about the overall economic outlook [1][3] - Businesses are hesitant to invest or expand due to unpredictable policy changes, while consumers face rising prices and stagnant wages, leading to more cautious spending habits [3][4] - The financial markets reacted to the news with volatility, as investors speculated on the potential for reduced corporate profitability and the possibility of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][5] Group 2 - The report highlights the interconnectedness of the global economy, suggesting that developments in the U.S. economy could have broader implications for financial markets and consumer behavior worldwide [4][5] - The discussions among investors reflect a mix of strategies, with some considering whether to buy into the stock market or exchange currencies based on the evolving economic landscape [4]

首先，贸易保护主义和政策不确定性加剧，美国自2025年初大幅提高对中国产品的关税，平均有效关税 从2024年的2%升至15.4%，为1938年以来最高水平。据经合组织测算，此次美国加征关税及各国反制措 施涉及商品贸易额占全球GDP约2%，超过2018年美对中方首次贸易战时期的影响范围。报告预测，增 长放缓较为显著的包括美国、加拿大和墨西哥等经济体。2025年和2026年，美国经济预计将增长1.6% 和1.5%，较今年3月份预测值分别下调0.6个和0.1个百分点；欧元区经济预计将增长1.0%和1.2%，与3月 份预测值相同。根据"政策不确定性指数"，近期不确定性急剧上升，尤其是在未来贸易政策走向方面， 企业和消费者信心因此下降。金融环境收紧与市场波动持续造成影响，虽然金融市场已部分稳定，但整 体金融条件比2024年底更为紧张，且金融系统对冲击更为敏感，可能触发连锁反应，如非银金融机构被 迫出售资产。另外，公司债务成本特别是低评级债券的利差仍然高企，表明市场对风险资产保持高度警 惕。 其次，投资和消费动力不足弱化复苏动能。商业投资疲弱，由于不确定性上升、融资成本提高以及结构 性问题，如市场集中度上升，企业投资意愿 ...

美国政府肆意对贸易伙伴挥舞"关税大棒"，在美国国内遭到普遍质疑。贸易冲突导致美国企业界和业内人士对经济前景的悲观情绪持续蔓延，给美国经济带 来巨大不确定性。 美企CEO信心指数创近50年来最大跌幅 美国经济研究机构"世界大型企业联合会"日前发布数据显示，美国2025年第二季度首席执行官信心指数从此前的60点跌至34点，为2022年第四季度以来的最 低水平，这也是该调查自1976年启动以来的最大环比降幅。外界普遍认为，该指数低于50表明首席执行官对经济前景持悲观态度。 因贸易局势紧张国际航协下调盈利预期 国际航空运输协会理事长威利·沃尔什：现实情况是，任何面临关税的企业都会思考自己能消化多少成本，又有多少可能转嫁给消费者。我理解制造商面临 关税成本的压力，他们显然会尽力做出最优决策，但归根结底，我认为消费者最终将不得不为行业面临的任何成本上涨买单。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 国际航空运输协会6月1日下调了2025年行业盈利预期，称全球航空公司今年的总利润预计将为360亿美元，略低于去年12月预测的366亿美元，并将盈利预期 下降归咎于贸易紧张局势和消费者信心下降。国际航空运输协会理事长威利·沃尔什同时指出，关税将 ...

Core Viewpoint - The President of the Richmond Federal Reserve, Barkin, emphasizes that individuals are exercising patience in their investment decisions due to policy uncertainty [1] Group 1 - There is no evidence indicating that declining sentiment is affecting consumer spending [1]

Group 1: Market Trends - Recent bond auctions in Japan, the US, and China have shown significantly reduced demand, indicating a cooling in the primary market[2] - Japan's 20-year bond auction on May 20 had a bid-to-cover ratio of only 2.5, the lowest since 2012, with a tail of 1.14, the highest since 1987[7] - The US 20-year bond auction on May 21 saw a yield of 5.047%, exceeding expectations, with a bid-to-cover ratio dropping to 2.46, the lowest since February[7] Group 2: Interest Rate Movements - Following the weak bond auctions, long-term interest rates surged, with Japanese bond yields rising approximately 15 basis points, and 30-year US Treasury yields surpassing 5%[2] - The domestic 50-year bond auction on May 23 reported a yield of 2.10%, higher than the estimated yield of 2.025%, reflecting a decline in market enthusiasm[7] Group 3: Economic Factors - Uncertainty in policy expectations has increased, with the market pricing in potential rate hikes in Japan and a reduced urgency for rate cuts in the US due to strong employment data and rising inflation[3] - Concerns over fiscal sustainability are growing, particularly in the US, where high deficits and tax cuts have weakened demand for government bonds[4] Group 4: Domestic Market Resilience - Despite the volatility in US and Japanese markets, China's long-term bond market has shown resilience, supported by a relatively loose monetary policy and attractive yield levels around 1.70% for 10-year bonds and 1.90% for 30-year bonds[5] - The trading environment in China remains stable, with market heat indices falling below the 40th percentile, indicating low risk of forced adjustments[5]

Group 1 - Allianz Global Investors warns that the U.S. may lose its global capital attractiveness due to a shift in clean energy policies, with a management scale of approximately $650 billion [1] - The catalyst for this policy shift is a tax bill pushed by House Republicans aiming to repeal several clean energy incentives from the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, leading to significant market volatility [1][3] - The S&P 500 index has shown a downward trend, and the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly surpassed 5.1%, reflecting market concerns over the potential addition of trillions in deficits due to the Republican bill [1] Group 2 - European asset management firms are experiencing a large-scale asset allocation adjustment as clients seek to avoid the U.S. market due to concerns over deteriorating climate policies and regulatory shortcomings [3] - The disparity in policy credibility between the U.S. and Europe is prompting global asset managers to allocate more capital to European projects, as Europe solidifies its emission reduction measures through legislation [3] - If the Senate ultimately passes the repeal of key provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act, it would signify a complete turnaround in U.S. clean technology policy, injecting substantial regulatory risks and undermining the policy certainty that previously attracted global capital [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Eurozone's economic activity is experiencing a contraction, with the composite PMI falling from 50.4 in April to 49.5 in May, below market expectations [1] - The services sector PMI dropped to 48.9, the lowest since January 2024, significantly below the expected 50.3 and previous value of 50.1, indicating weakened demand and declining business confidence [1] - Manufacturing PMI showed signs of stabilization, rising to 49.4, above the previous value of 49.0 and the expected 49.3, with output index remaining in expansion territory at 51.5 for the second consecutive month [1] Group 2 - The analysis highlights that the Eurozone's economic momentum is insufficient, with the services sector's long-standing role as a growth engine being challenged, particularly under the pressures of global trade tensions and policy uncertainties [2] - There is an expectation that the European Central Bank will lower the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.00% in the upcoming meeting on June 5, which could further boost business confidence [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley is optimistic about U.S. equities and bonds despite economic slowdown and high policy uncertainty, predicting a weaker dollar in the second half of the year [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley expects U.S. assets to outperform global markets until mid-2026 due to easing tariff threats and reduced recession risks, alongside substantial monetary easing and regulatory relief [1][13]. - The S&P 500 index is projected to reach 6,500 points by Q2 2024, representing a 9% increase from current levels [1][2]. - The report indicates that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is expected to decline to 3.45%, providing approximately 13% total returns for fixed-income investors [2]. Group 2: Currency and Dollar Outlook - The dollar index is anticipated to depreciate by 9% to 91 by mid-2026, with the euro expected to rise to 1.25 against the dollar and the yen strengthening to 130 [3][6]. - Morgan Stanley emphasizes that the era of a strong dollar may be ending due to diminishing growth and yield advantages of the U.S. compared to other G10 economies [6][8]. Group 3: Investment Strategy and Timing - The report highlights the importance of timing in investment decisions amid increasing policy uncertainty, suggesting that investors should remain flexible to seize opportunities arising from policy changes [5][15]. - Key policy changes to watch include tariff policies, fiscal policies related to tax cuts, financial regulation impacts from Basel III, and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [15][17]. Group 4: Global Investment Trends - Despite concerns about diminishing demand for U.S. assets, foreign holdings of U.S. dollar-denominated bonds have reached record highs, indicating continued interest in high-quality dollar assets [10][13]. - The report notes that the market size of U.S. dollar assets remains unmatched, with approximately $50 trillion in investable stock market capitalization, significantly larger than Europe’s market [13].