Group 1: Market Strategy - The market has shifted from being policy-driven to being driven by fundamentals and liquidity since September last year, with expectations for a potential upward trend in the second half of 2025, possibly surpassing the peak of the second half of 2024 [3] - The A-share market continues to show a trend of oscillation upwards, with the ChiNext index leading the gains, indicating an increase in market risk appetite despite differing capital flows [4] - The market style is transitioning from reversal to momentum, which may support further upward movement of the index, with a focus on sectors benefiting from policy catalysts such as "anti-involution" and "stabilizing growth" [4] Group 2: Fixed Income and Credit Bonds - A total of 386 credit bonds were issued from July 14 to July 18, 2025, with a total issuance scale of 4010.95 billion yuan, representing a week-on-week decrease of 14.72% [4] - Among the credit bonds, industrial bonds accounted for 173 issues totaling 1759.1 billion yuan, while local government bonds saw an increase of 16.25% with 178 issues totaling 1065.35 billion yuan [4] - Financial bonds experienced a significant decrease of 40.42%, with 35 issues totaling 1186.5 billion yuan [4] Group 3: Industry Insights - The Guangxi Petrochemical project has been fully completed, marking a significant step in the integrated refining and chemical transformation, with the ethylene unit achieving high-quality commissioning [6] - China National Petroleum Corporation is accelerating its transformation into high-end new materials, achieving a breakthrough in new material sales and establishing five new material bases to enhance production capacity [6] - In the agricultural sector, the average price of live pigs has decreased by 3.65% week-on-week to 14.27 yuan/kg, while the average price of 15 kg piglets has increased by 0.22% to 31.96 yuan/kg [6]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of the non-ferrous metal market under strong policy expectations, highlighting the recent focus on "anti-involution" and "stabilizing growth" by the government [2][3] - The report notes that copper and aluminum prices have stabilized and rebounded, driven by macroeconomic catalysts and changes in market sentiment [2][3] Summary by Sections Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper prices have stabilized and rebounded, with domestic inventory showing fluctuations; the current price is around 79,040 CNY/ton [2][14] - Aluminum prices experienced a decline followed by a rebound, with the current price at 20,770 CNY/ton; supply and demand dynamics are being closely monitored [2][21] - Gold and silver prices have increased, with gold averaging 774.23 CNY/gram and silver at 9,107 CNY/kilogram, supported by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tensions [3][28] Minor Metals - Tungsten prices have been adjusted upwards, with black tungsten concentrate averaging 179,500 CNY/ton; the market is cautious due to weak demand [4][59] - The rare earth market is showing signs of recovery, with prices for light rare earth oxides increasing by 4.8% to 478,000 CNY/ton [5] Market Predictions - The report predicts that copper prices will fluctuate between 95,00-96,50 USD/ton and aluminum prices between 20,300-21,000 CNY/ton in the coming week [15][23] - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Hongqiao for potential investment opportunities [17][24]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of Shanghai nickel are characterized by the resonance of macro and news factors, while the real - world fundamentals limit its price elasticity. The fundamentals of stainless steel show that macro expectations boost the market, but the actual supply - demand situation still exerts a drag. The price of nickel and stainless steel is expected to show an oscillatory pattern [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Fundamentals - Macro and news factors improve market sentiment, with policies potentially adjusting the structure and optimizing supply. The Indonesian APNI Association suggests re - evaluating the HPM formula for nickel ore, which may increase smelting costs. However, the support from the ore end has weakened, and the smelting end limits the upward elasticity of nickel prices. The negative feedback in July has affected the supply side, and the acceptance of high smelting prices in the ternary sector is low [1]. Stainless Steel Fundamentals - U.S. tariffs suppress the terminal demand for stainless steel, but domestic policy expectations boost the market. The real - world supply - demand situation has turned into a double - weak state, with weekly inventory slightly decreasing. The production schedule in July shows a decline in China and an increase in Indonesia. The high - cost cash cost of Indonesian stainless steel has decreased, and the high inventory of nickel - iron pressures its valuation [2]. Inventory Changes - China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,674 tons to 38,979 tons, LME nickel inventory increased by 1,398 tons to 207,576 tons. The mid - July nickel - iron inventory was 37,534 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 50% and a month - on - month decrease of 11%. On July 17, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel decreased by 1.69% week - on - week. China's port nickel ore inventory increased by 518,700 wet tons to 9.4836 million wet tons [3][4][6]. Market News - There are various events such as the potential halt of nickel exports from Ontario to the U.S., the successful trial production of a nickel - iron project in Indonesia, the resumption of production of a nickel smelter, the shutdown and maintenance of a cold - rolling mill, the removal of the raw ore export ban in the Philippines, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, the plan to shorten the mining quota period in Indonesia, and the suspension of production of some nickel - iron EF lines due to losses [7][8][9]. Weekly Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and related price differences of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures, as well as prices and spreads in the industrial chain such as electrolytic nickel, nickel - iron, and stainless steel products [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the steel sector is experiencing a value reassessment due to the implementation of anti-involution policies, suggesting a turning point has been reached [2][3] - Despite facing supply-demand contradictions and overall profit decline, the steel demand is expected to stabilize or slightly increase due to supportive policies in real estate, infrastructure investment, and manufacturing [3][5] - The report highlights that the profitability of ordinary steel is currently favorable, and under the backdrop of anti-involution, profit margins may continue to expand, leading to potential performance improvements for steel companies [3][5] Weekly Market Performance - The steel sector rose by 0.45%, underperforming the broader market, which saw the CSI 300 index increase by 1.09% [10] - Among the sub-sectors, long products increased by 2.53%, while special steel decreased by 0.02% [10][13] Key Data Supply - As of July 18, the average daily pig iron output was 2.4244 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.63 thousand tons [26] - The capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 90.9%, up by 0.99 percentage points week-on-week [26] - The total output of five major steel products was 7.562 million tons, a decrease of 0.63% week-on-week [26] Demand - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.701 million tons, down by 0.34% week-on-week [37] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 94 thousand tons, a decrease of 5.59% week-on-week [37] Inventory - Social inventory of five major steel products increased to 9.221 million tons, up by 0.89% week-on-week [45] - Factory inventory decreased to 4.156 million tons, down by 2.35% week-on-week [45] Prices & Profits - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,462.3 CNY/ton, an increase of 0.99% week-on-week [51] - The profit for rebar steel was 171 CNY/ton, down by 12.76% week-on-week [60] - The average cost of pig iron was 2,228 CNY/ton, an increase of 55 CNY/ton week-on-week [60] Investment Suggestions - The report suggests focusing on companies with advanced equipment and strong environmental standards, as well as those benefiting from the new energy cycle and high-margin special steel enterprises [3][5]

Monetary Policy Overview - In the first half of the year, China's monetary policy can be divided into two phases, with a cautious approach in Q1 due to exchange rate depreciation pressures and strong market expectations [1] - In April, the focus shifted to "stabilizing growth" as the primary goal of monetary policy, leading to a reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates in May [1][2] - The expectation for the second half of the year is that monetary policy will continue to emphasize "stabilizing growth," with potential for further easing measures [1][2] Economic Indicators - The growth rate of social financing increased to 8.9% year-on-year, supported by government bond financing, but may face challenges in the second half due to a potential slowdown in new government debt issuance [3] - The total scale of government bonds for the year is projected at 13.86 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of only 2.9 billion yuan compared to 2024 [3] Exchange Rate Dynamics - The overall trend for the US dollar is expected to remain weak, influenced by concerns over US economic recession and the long-term trend of de-dollarization in global markets [3][4] - A weaker dollar is anticipated to provide effective support for the Chinese yuan, with expectations of a slight appreciation to around 7 to 7.1 [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the formal establishment of the Sci-Tech Innovation Growth Sector provides strong capital market institutional support for the national strategy of technological self-reliance and strength [1] - The report emphasizes that the policy goals of "stabilizing growth, stabilizing the stock market," and "boosting the capital market" will continue to guide the future direction of the sector [1] - Factors such as a moderately loose liquidity environment, continuous optimization of the capital market environment, and the restoration of investor confidence are expected to drive the improvement in the securities sector's prosperity [1] Group 2 - The expansion of medium- and long-term funds is anticipated to further enhance the expectations for the improvement of the securities industry's fundamentals [1] - The report suggests that it is an appropriate time to allocate resources to the sector [1]

Market Overview - The bond market weakened again on July 16, with most government bond futures closing down, while the overall fluctuation remained small [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) indicated a neutral stance on the bond market during the financial statistics press conference, announcing an excess continuation of reverse repos, reflecting a strong demand for moderately loose monetary policy to support growth [1] Bond Futures - The 30-year main contract fell by 0.05% to 120.710, the 10-year main contract fell by 0.05% to 108.835, the 5-year main contract fell by 0.01% to 106.000, and the 2-year main contract rose by 0.01% to 102.424 [2] - The yield on the 2-year "25附息国债06" decreased by 0.75 basis points to 1.385%, while the 10-year "25附息国债11" increased by 0.5 basis points to 1.6595% [2] International Bond Markets - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 2-year yield increasing by 3.79 basis points to 3.934% and the 10-year yield rising by 4.80 basis points to 4.481% [3] - In Asia, the 10-year Japanese government bond yield fell by 1.1 basis points to 1.579% [4] - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield decreased by 2.6 basis points to 3.404%, while the German 10-year bond yield fell by 1.7 basis points to 2.710% [4] Primary Market - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average winning yields for 91-day and 182-day government bonds at 1.2069% and 1.2654%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.44 and 2.29 [5] Liquidity Conditions - The PBOC conducted a reverse repo operation of 520.1 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.4%, resulting in a net injection of 444.6 billion yuan for the day [6] - The Shibor rates for short-term instruments collectively declined, with the overnight rate down by 6.9 basis points to 1.466% [6] Institutional Insights - Huazhong Securities noted that insufficient supply and strong demand continue to dominate the urban investment bond market, with net repayments in June amounting to 655 billion yuan, a decrease of approximately 590 million yuan compared to the previous month [7] - CITIC Securities observed that government bonds continued to perform well, with credit issuance showing signs of recovery and social financing increasing year-on-year, aligning with expectations [7]

今日大盘呈现分化走势，上证指数、恒生指数走高，深证成指震荡下跌。申万一级行业中，有色金属、钢铁、煤炭等传统制造业板块涨幅均超1%，钢铁板 块近20日涨超10%。其中钢铁ETF(515210)作为市场上唯一追踪钢铁行业的ETF产品，近5日净流入资金超3亿元。 政策面，7月1日中央财经委员会第六次会议明确提出依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，推动落后产能有序退出，促进钢铁行业转型升级。 同时，国家发改委于7月3日下达8000亿元"两重"项目清单，涉及长江流域生态修复、西部陆海新通道、城市地下管网等领域。此类基建项目对钢铁需求的拉 动具有直接性和持续性，基建用钢需求将回升。 中国钢铁工业协会副会长王颖生指出，长期来看，我国钢材需求仍将在峰值平台区间维持较长一段时间，预计到2035年我国粗钢产量达到8亿吨～9亿吨， 2050年后预计保持在8亿吨左右，我国作为世界最大钢铁内需市场的地位将长期存在。 信达证券指出，虽然钢铁行业现阶段面临供需矛盾突出等困扰，行业利润整体下行，但伴随系列"稳增长"政策纵深推进，钢铁需求总量有望在房地产筑底企 稳、基建投资稳中有增、制造业持续发展、钢铁出口高位等支撑下保持平稳或甚至边际略增，反观平 ...

Economic Growth and Stability - The core focus is on balancing "stabilizing growth" and "preventing risks" in the Chinese economy amid external demand shocks and real estate market adjustments [1][3][18] - 73% of economists predict that the GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 will be between 5.0% and 5.2%, while 60% believe the annual growth rate can reach 5.0% to 5.3% [1][3][4] Debt Concerns - Local government debt is identified as the most pressing issue, with 44% of respondents highlighting it, followed by private enterprises (28%) and household debt (19%) [1][5][18] - The need for a long-term mechanism to prevent risks in key areas such as real estate and finance is emphasized [17][18] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with various strategies proposed to reinforce policy effects, including improving economic expectations (28%) and increasing household income (25%) [1][7][18] - The People's Bank of China has lowered policy rates to support the housing market, indicating ongoing efforts to stabilize real estate [7][9] Currency Stability - 90% of economists believe the USD to RMB exchange rate will fluctuate between 7.1 and 7.5, with a focus on maintaining stability to support cross-border capital flow and exports [9][10] - The potential for RMB appreciation exists if the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts exceed expectations, which could impact exports negatively [9][10] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - Fiscal policy has played a significant role in stabilizing growth, with measures such as accelerated special bond issuance and targeted spending in key areas [14][15][18] - Monetary policy is shifting towards "moderate easing," with expectations for continued support through rate cuts and structural tools to enhance financial support for SMEs and green projects [15][16][18] Consumer Behavior and Investment Focus - Income is the primary factor influencing consumer spending, accounting for 75%, while investment is concentrated in large infrastructure (40%) and technology (37%) [5][18] - The need for direct stimulus to enhance consumer confidence is highlighted, alongside the importance of addressing structural issues in the economy [16][17][18]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The steel sector has shown a 3.90% increase this week, outperforming the broader market, with specific segments like special steel and plate steel also experiencing gains [2][10] - Despite a decrease in iron and steel production, the average daily molten iron output remains above last year's levels, indicating resilience in the market [3][25] - The report highlights the ongoing "anti-involution" policies aimed at stabilizing the market, which may lead to a gradual recovery in steel prices and profitability [3][41] - The demand for steel is expected to stabilize or slightly increase due to government policies supporting real estate and infrastructure investments [3][34] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The steel sector's performance this week was 3.90%, with sub-segments like special steel up by 1.64% and plate steel up by 4.51% [2][10] - Iron ore prices increased by 7.16%, indicating strong demand for raw materials [12] 2. Supply Data - As of July 11, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 89.9%, down by 0.39 percentage points week-on-week [25] - The total production of five major steel products was 7.61 million tons, a decrease of 1.59% from the previous week [25][30] 3. Demand Data - The consumption of five major steel products was 8.73 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.38% [34] - The transaction volume for construction steel was 99,000 tons, down 7.04% week-on-week [34] 4. Inventory Levels - Social inventory of five major steel products was 9.14 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.23% week-on-week, but down 29.02% year-on-year [41][39] - Factory inventory increased to 4.26 million tons, up 0.42% week-on-week [41][40] 5. Price and Profitability - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel increased to 3,428.5 CNY/ton, up 1.14% week-on-week [47] - The profit for rebar production was 196 CNY/ton, an increase of 4.81% week-on-week [56] - The average cost of molten iron was 2,173 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 25 CNY/ton [56] 6. Company Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key listed companies, indicating potential investment opportunities in firms like Baosteel and Hualing Steel, which are expected to see earnings growth [72]