Core Viewpoint - The recent sharp decline in gold prices follows a significant increase, driven by concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown and profit-taking by traders after a month of gains [1][5]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - On September 30, after the A-share market closed, spot gold prices experienced a significant drop, initially rising over 1% to reach a new high of $3,871 per ounce before falling approximately 0.8% to around $3,800 per ounce [1]. - The gold market has seen a cumulative increase of about 45% this year, potentially marking the largest annual gain since 1979 [5]. - Concerns regarding the U.S. government shutdown and its impact on economic data releases have heightened gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [5]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - Saxo Bank's commodity strategist Ole Hansen noted that profit-taking at the end of the month and potential actions by Chinese traders to reduce positions ahead of the October holiday contributed to the price drop [5]. - Central bank demand for gold and the Federal Reserve's potential return to interest rate cuts have provided support for gold prices [5]. - UBS forecasts a bullish outlook for the gold market, predicting prices could rise to $4,200 per ounce by mid-2026, driven by factors such as a weaker dollar, significant central bank purchases, and increased ETF investments [5].

Core Viewpoint - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, reported a total holding of 1011.73 tons of gold as of September 29, 2025, marking an increase of 6.01 tons from the previous trading day. The price of spot gold surged past $3800 per ounce, reaching a record high of $3834.03 per ounce, driven by central bank demand and expectations of renewed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5]. Group 1 - The total holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust reached 1011.73 tons, the highest level since July 2022 [5]. - Gold prices have increased by over 40% this year, influenced by central bank demand and the Federal Reserve's potential rate cuts [5]. - Major banks, including Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank, expect the upward trend in gold prices to continue [5]. Group 2 - The surge in gold prices is attributed to expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which have weakened the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields, alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions and uncertainties regarding a potential U.S. government shutdown [5]. - The U.S. Labor Statistics Bureau plans to suspend operations during the government shutdown, which will not release economic data, further increasing market uncertainty and driving investors towards traditional safe-haven assets like gold [6]. Group 3 - The market is focused on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data, as labor market conditions are seen as a major downside risk to the economy and a key factor for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook [7]. - Technically, after breaking the $3800 level, bullish momentum for gold has re-emerged, with potential targets of $3850 and $3880 if the upward trend continues [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given content. 2) Core Views of the Report - Gold prices have reached a record high, with London gold spot breaking through $3,800 per ounce, and silver hovering near its 14 - year high. Despite strong risk - appetite in overseas markets, the risk of a US government shutdown and the decline of the US dollar have made gold an outstanding hedging and allocation target [3]. - There are both upward drivers and short - term risks for gold prices. Upward drivers include fiscal deadlock, concerns about government shutdown, the Fed's potential interest - rate cut, pressure on the US dollar and US Treasury bonds, central bank gold purchases, ETF increases, and geopolitical tensions. However, gold has risen for six consecutive weeks with a cumulative increase of over 40%, and there is a risk of short - term price correction due to profit - taking before the holiday and potential weakening of interest - rate cut expectations if US employment and PMI data are strong after the holiday [3]. - The medium - to - long - term logic for gold prices remains solid. Global debt expansion, the trend of de - globalization, continuous central bank gold purchases, Fed's future easing, and global economic uncertainties will support the strategic allocation value of gold [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Key News - US President Trump announced a series of new import tariffs last Thursday, which has brought new uncertainties to the trade situation [2]. - The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held its third - quarter meeting, suggesting to strengthen monetary policy regulation [2]. - Russia launched hundreds of drones and missiles at Kiev and other parts of Ukraine last Sunday, causing casualties [2]. - US lawmakers are about to hold talks with President Trump to avoid a government shutdown, and the Republican leader blamed the Democrats for the current deadlock [2]. Price Logic - Gold prices have reached a new high. London gold spot broke through $3,800 per ounce on Monday morning, and silver is near its 14 - year high. The risk of a US government shutdown and the decline of the US dollar have made gold an important hedging and allocation target [3]. - There are both upward drivers and short - term risks for gold prices. Upward drivers come from multiple factors, but there are short - term risks such as profit - taking and potential weakening of interest - rate cut expectations [3]. - The medium - to - long - term logic for gold prices is solid, supported by factors like global debt expansion, central bank gold purchases, and Fed's future policies [3]. Commodity Index - On September 26, 2025, the comprehensive index of commodities shows: the commodity index is 2237.97 with a - 0.51% change, the commodity 20 index is 2512.18 with a - 0.48% change, and the industrial products index is 2249.67 with a - 0.87% change [44]. - The PPI commodity index is 1325.62 with a - 0.84% change [45]. - The precious metals index on September 26, 2025: the current price is 3018.13, with a daily increase of + 0.75%, a 5 - day increase of + 1.71%, a 1 - month increase of + 9.91%, and a year - to - date increase of + 36.42% [46].

Market Overview - The three major indices experienced a rebound, with the ChiNext Index rising nearly 3% at one point. By midday, the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.11%, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.77% [1][2]. Solid-State Battery Sector - The solid-state battery sector saw significant growth, with stocks in the lithium battery industry, including CATL, rising over 5% during trading. The sector's performance was driven by advancements in solid-state battery technology [4][6]. - A research team led by a professor from Tsinghua University made significant progress in polymer electrolytes for lithium batteries, developing a new fluorinated polyether electrolyte that enhances physical contact and ionic conductivity at solid-state interfaces. This advancement is expected to provide important technical references for solid-state battery product development [6][7]. Gold Market - Gold prices reached a new historical high, with spot gold peaking at $3,798 per ounce and COMEX gold touching $3,830 per ounce. The global largest gold ETF, SPDR, reported a holding of 1,005.72 tons, the highest since August 2022 [7][10]. - Domestic gold jewelry brands have also seen price increases, with certain brands reporting prices as high as 1,111 yuan per gram, reflecting a 5 yuan increase from previous levels [9]. Future Projections - Goldman Sachs projected that by 2026, international gold prices could soar to $4,000 per ounce under baseline scenarios, and potentially reach $4,500 per ounce in tail risk scenarios. If just 1% of funds from the U.S. Treasury market were to flow into gold, prices could approach $5,000 per ounce [12].

Market Overview - On September 29, the three major indices rebounded, with the ChiNext Index rising nearly 3% at one point. The Shanghai Composite Index closed up 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.11%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.77% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.29 trillion yuan, with over 3,000 stocks rising across the market [1] Solid-State Battery Sector - The solid-state battery sector, along with new energy metals and photovoltaic equipment stocks, experienced a collective surge, with multiple stocks in the lithium battery industry seeing significant gains. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Ltd. (CATL) saw its A and H shares rise over 5% during trading [2] - A recent breakthrough in polymer electrolytes for lithium batteries was achieved by a team led by Professor Zhang Qiang from Tsinghua University, developing a new fluorinated polyether electrolyte that enhances physical contact and ionic conductivity at solid-state interfaces, potentially aiding the development of mature solid-state battery products [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and eight other departments issued an action plan for the high-quality development of the new energy storage manufacturing industry, designating solid-state batteries as a key focus area and aiming to establish 3 to 5 global leading enterprises by 2027 [5] Gold Market Insights - On September 29, spot gold reached a historical high, peaking at over $3,798 per ounce, while COMEX gold briefly surpassed $3,830 per ounce [5] - Domestic gold jewelry brands have seen price increases, with Chow Sang Sang's gold jewelry priced at 1,111 yuan per gram, up 5 yuan from September 26 [7] - The largest gold ETF, SPDR, reported a holding of 1,005.72 tons, the highest since August 2022. Deutsche Bank noted that the recent surge in gold prices is driven by investor fears and the perception of gold as a safe haven during times of panic [7]

Core Insights - Spot gold has surpassed $3,790 per ounce, reaching a new high, driven by market speculation on further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Gold has seen a year-to-date increase of over 44%, making it one of the strongest-performing commodities this year [1] - Major investment banks, including Goldman Sachs, anticipate further price increases for gold due to the current economic climate and geopolitical tensions [1] Company Performance - DRDGOLD shares rose by 2.4% in pre-market trading, with a latest price of $26.53 and a year-to-date increase of 3.67% [1] - Pan American Silver, Harmony Gold, Kinross Gold, and New Gold also experienced approximately 2% gains in pre-market trading [1] - The pre-market performance of various gold-related stocks indicates a positive market sentiment towards the gold sector amid rising gold prices [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of precious metals continued to rise strongly on Monday and reached new highs. The decline of the US dollar index, the selling of US Treasury bonds, and the drop of Bitcoin reflect the erosion of the US dollar's credit and the security flaws of virtual currencies, increasing the demand for gold as a safe - haven asset. The Fed's monetary policy and the performance of the US stock market may increase the risk of a bubble in the US stock market or economic stagflation, further boosting the demand for gold as a hedge. The report suggests a long - term bullish outlook, and a short - term strong pattern for London gold and silver. It maintains the idea of buying on dips, but advises caution for existing long positions due to the approaching National Day holiday [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3,781.2 per ounce, up 2.03%; COMEX silver 2512 contract closed at $44.315 per ounce, up 3.17%. SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 846.5 yuan per gram, up 2.01%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 10,317 yuan per kilogram, up 3.81% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations have slightly cooled. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 10.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 89.8%. For December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 1.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 23.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 75.3%. In January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 13.8%, a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 52.7%, and a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 32.5%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 6.01 tons to 1,000.57 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 163.76 tons to 15,368.9 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 10.8 tons to 1,148.6 tons, and SGX silver inventory increased by 4.1 tons to 1,252.4 tons as of the week ending September 12 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week's data is relatively light. Key data to watch include the final value of the US Q2 GDP on Thursday night and the US August PCE data on Friday night. Regarding events, on Thursday at 20:20, 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will speak; at 21:00, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will give a welcome speech at the 4th annual meeting on the international role of the US dollar. On Friday at 01:00, Fed Governor Barr will speak on bank stress tests, and at 22:00, Fed Governor Bowman will speak [4]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Tables - **Precious Metal Futures and Spot Prices**: SHFE gold main - continuous contract is at 855.44 yuan per gram, up 3%; SGX gold TD is at 839.93 yuan per gram, up 1.69%; CME gold main contract is at $3,781.2 per ounce, up 1.66%. SHFE silver main - continuous contract is at 10,349 yuan per kilogram, up 3.79%; SGX silver TD is at 10,275 yuan per kilogram, up 0.31%; CME silver main contract is at $44.315 per ounce, up 2.19%. SHFE - TD gold is at 6.57 yuan per gram, up 44.08%; SHFE - TD silver is at 74 yuan per kilogram, up 29.17%. CME gold - silver ratio is 85.3255, down 0.52% [6][7]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: SHFE gold inventory is 59,013 kilograms, up 2.76%; CME gold inventory is 1,234.2735 tons, up 0.56%; SHFE gold holdings are 260,256 lots, up 8.36%; SPDR gold holdings are 1,000.57 tons, up 0.6%. SHFE silver inventory is 1,148.624 tons, down 0.93%; CME silver inventory is 16,309.9981 tons, up 0.06%; SGX silver inventory is 1,252.41 tons, up 0.33%; SHFE silver holdings are 504,051 lots, up 16.15%; SLV silver holdings are 15,368.895541 tons, up 1.08% [18]. - **Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview**: The US dollar index is at 97.3263, down 0.33%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is at 7.1178, up 0.34%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 46,381.54 points, up 0.14%; WTI crude oil spot is at $62.28 per barrel, down 0.64%; LmeS copper 03 is at $10,002 per ton, up 0.06%; the 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.15%, up 0.24%; the 10 - year US real interest rate is 1.78%, up 1.71%; the 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread is 0.54%, down 5.26% [21].

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in gold prices is driven by strong demand for safe-haven assets amid global uncertainties, particularly due to geopolitical tensions such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the situation in the Middle East [2]. Group 1: Current Market Situation - As of September 23, gold futures are trading around 853.52 yuan per gram, reflecting a 1.76% increase, with a high of 855.62 yuan and a low of 845.04 yuan [1]. - The short-term outlook for gold futures appears bullish, indicating potential for further price increases [1]. Group 2: Underlying Demand Factors - The demand for gold is characterized as structural and persistent, providing a solid foundation for high gold prices despite fluctuations in short-term monetary policy expectations [2]. - Gold is viewed as a non-sovereign credit asset, making its value preservation and hedging properties particularly valuable during times of political and economic uncertainty [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - Key resistance levels for gold futures are identified in the range of 850 to 870 yuan per gram, while important support levels are noted between 840 and 860 yuan per gram [3].

Group 1 - International gold prices surged to a historic high, with silver prices also reaching over $44 per ounce, marking a 14-year peak [1][2] - On September 22, 2025 December gold futures rose by $61.8, closing at $3781.2 per ounce, a 1.66% increase, with an intraday high of $3783.3 [1] - Market confidence in further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, despite cautious statements from officials, continues to drive demand for precious metals [1][2] Group 2 - The ongoing uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict supports safe-haven demand for gold, while global central banks continue to increase their gold holdings [2] - The rapid rise in silver prices is providing additional support to gold prices, with expectations of a fifth consecutive year of supply-demand gaps in the global silver market [2] - On the same day, December silver futures increased by $0.95, closing at $44.315 per ounce, a 2.19% rise [3]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - International spot gold prices reached a historic high, surpassing $3748 per ounce, with an increase of over $1105 this year [1] - As of the report, international spot gold was quoted at $3747.11 per ounce, while domestic spot gold was priced at 845 yuan per gram [1] - On September 22, COMEX gold futures rose by 2.03% to $3781.2 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures increased by 3.17% to $44.32 per ounce [1] Group 2: Employment and Economic Indicators - U.S. non-farm employment increased by only 22,000 in August, significantly below the expected 75,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since 2021 [1] - A report indicated that from April 2024 to March 2025, non-farm employment was revised down by 911,000, marking the largest downward adjustment on record [1] - The dollar faces medium to long-term weakening pressure, enhancing the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold as a safe haven [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve's Stance on Interest Rates - Several Federal Reserve officials expressed skepticism about further interest rate cuts, with St. Louis Fed President supporting a recent 25 basis point cut for preventive measures [2] - The current interest rate is viewed as being between slightly tight and neutral, suggesting limited room for further cuts [2] - New Fed Governor Stephen Milan argued that maintaining short-term rates above neutral could lead to unnecessary layoffs and higher unemployment, advocating for significant and rapid rate cuts in the coming months [2]