周一亚市早盘，现货黄金高开高走，一度涨0.57%至4535.26美元/盎司，距12月26日历史高点4549.69美 元仅一步之遥，主因美伊地缘政治紧张急剧升级。特朗普政府对伊朗抗议活动强硬表态，称"子弹上 膛，随时待发"，计划讨论军事打击等选项，点燃市场避险情绪。美伊对峙升级信号频现：特朗普周二 将听取对伊全面选项简报，伊朗威胁攻击美中东基地，针锋相对加剧"擦枪走火"风险，资金撤离风险资 产转向黄金。此外，伊朗抗议持续两周致超500人死亡，叠加经济崩溃、互联网封锁，地缘风险溢价抬 升；美国周六对叙IS目标打击，进一步推升避险需求，支撑金价短期强势。 摘要周一亚市早盘，现货黄金高开高走，一度涨0.57%至4535.26美元/盎司，距12月26日历史高点 4549.69美元仅一步之遥，主因美伊地缘政治紧张急剧升级。 ...

Group 1 - The international spot gold price surpassed $4600 per ounce, reaching a high of $4603.5 per ounce, marking a historical peak [1] - Spot silver prices also hit a historical high of $84.867 per ounce, with a daily increase of 5.26% [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have risen, with several brands reporting prices above 1400 yuan per gram, reflecting an increase of around 20 yuan compared to the previous day [1] Group 2 - The recent surge in precious metals is attributed to multiple factors, including high geopolitical risks that elevate market risk aversion [2] - The U.S. military intervention in Venezuela and control over its oil has further increased geopolitical risks, impacting the international order [2] - Rising U.S. debt risks, driven by economic and fiscal policies from the Trump administration, have led to concerns about fiscal sustainability, prompting a shift of funds towards safe-haven assets like gold [2] - Central banks are increasing their gold reserves, with a reported addition of 30,000 ounces in December, marking the 14th consecutive month of increases [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices is driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over U.S. monetary policy independence, leading to increased demand for precious metals as a low-risk alternative to the dollar [3]. Group 1: Market Data - As of January 12, 2026, the spot silver price is at $84.15 per ounce, with a trading range between $79.94 and $84.60 during the day [1][2]. - Other silver-related prices include silver T+D at 20,909 yuan per kilogram and paper silver at 18.897 yuan per gram [2]. Group 2: Fundamental Analysis - Key events driving the current market include ongoing unrest in Iran and potential U.S. intervention, which heightens geopolitical risks [3]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is facing political pressure, raising concerns about the independence of U.S. monetary policy [3]. - KCM Trade's chief market analyst notes that in a low-interest-rate environment, the appeal of non-yielding precious metals like silver is increasing, with expectations of continued demand from central banks [3]. - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for Fed rate cuts to June and September 2026, indicating a significant delay from previous expectations [3]. - JPMorgan no longer anticipates a rate cut in January 2026, now predicting a rate hike in Q3 2027 [3]. Group 3: Trading Strategy - Technical analysis indicates that silver prices remain in an upward channel, suggesting a bullish outlook [4]. - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 70.66, indicating overbought conditions and potential for short-term consolidation [4]. - Key resistance levels include the historical high of $85.87 and the upper boundary of the upward channel around $88.40 [4]. - Initial support is at the 9-day EMA of $77.94, followed by the lower boundary of the upward channel at approximately $76.40 [4].

Core Viewpoint - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have intensified due to threats of criminal prosecution from the U.S. Department of Justice, alongside rising demand for safe-haven assets driven by protests in Iran, leading to record highs in gold and silver prices [1][4][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Reactions - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated that the potential prosecution should be viewed in the context of ongoing government pressure to influence interest rate decisions [1][4]. - Following Powell's comments, gold prices surged to nearly $4,600 per ounce, while silver approached $85 per ounce [1][4]. - The U.S. dollar weakened, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds rose slightly [1][5]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors and Precious Metals - Protests in Iran have led to speculation about a potential regime change, increasing the appeal of precious metals as safe-haven investments [1][5]. - Multiple favorable factors, including declining U.S. interest rates, escalating geopolitical tensions, and a decrease in trust in the dollar, have supported gold and silver prices [1][5]. - Fund managers expressed confidence in the long-term attractiveness of precious metals, opting not to significantly reduce their gold positions [1][5]. Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver prices surged nearly 6%, reaching a historical high of $84.6090 per ounce, with a 150% increase over the past year [2][6]. - The silver market is expected to face supply shortages through 2026, driven by strong investment demand and rising industrial needs [2][6]. - Concerns over U.S. tariffs affecting silver, platinum, and palladium are anticipated, with a report expected in January [2][6]. Group 4: Economic Indicators and Interest Rate Expectations - Recent U.S. employment data did not alter market expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which supports non-yielding precious metals [3][6]. - The Federal Reserve has already cut rates three times in the latter half of the previous year, with the market pricing in at least two more cuts this year [3][6]. - Analysts noted that weak labor market data reinforces expectations for an earlier and more aggressive shift to rate cuts, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding gold [7].

国际油价于周一走低。此前伊朗方面称，经过周末的暴力事件后该国局势已"完全可控"，这缓解了市场 对这个欧佩克产油国原油供应的部分担忧，与此同时，投资者也在评估委内瑞拉恢复石油出口的相关进 展。 截至格林尼治标准时间当日07：50，布伦特原油期货价格下跌9美分，报每桶63.25美元；美国西德克萨 斯中质原油期货价格下跌10美分，报每桶59.02美元。 尽管上周末抗议活动出现升级，但伊朗宗教领导层针对这场2022年以来规模最大的示威活动加大了弹压 力度，受此影响，两大原油基准价格上周均上涨超3%，创下自去年10月以来的最大单周涨幅。 伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格齐周一通过英文译员表示，经历周末的暴力冲突升级后，伊朗国内局势"已完全 在掌控之中"。 他还称，美国总统唐纳德・特朗普曾警告，若抗议活动演变为流血冲突，美方将对德黑兰采取行动，而 正是这一言论煽动"恐怖分子"将抗议者和安全部队列为袭击目标，企图以此招致外国势力介入。 日前，伊朗国内的动荡局势已造成超500人死亡。 他补充道："市场的态度是，在供应切实出现中断之前，不会作出显著反应。" 与此同时，随着委内瑞拉总统尼古拉斯・马杜罗被抓获，该国预计将很快恢复石油出口。特 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of Shanghai Gold futures is in a strong upward phase, possibly at the end of the trend. The overall trend of Shanghai Silver futures is also in a strong upward phase and currently at the end of the trend. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for both gold and silver futures [7][35] 3. Summary According to the Directory Gold Futures 3.1.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The Shanghai Gold futures are in a strong upward trend, possibly at the end. Last week, gold oscillated upwards under multiple positive factors. Geopolitical risks and the strengthening expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut were the core driving forces, and continuous gold purchases by global central banks provided long - term support. However, attention should be paid to the possible delay of the interest rate cut rhythm due to US inflation data and the risk of the extinction of the safe - haven premium caused by the easing of the geopolitical situation. It is recommended to wait and see [7] 3.1.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: For the Shanghai Gold contract 2604, it was short - term cautiously bullish, with the upper pressure level at 980 - 1000 yuan/gram and the lower support level at 950 - 970 yuan/gram. It was recommended to buy on dips and control the position due to large short - term fluctuations [10] - **This week's strategy recommendation**: For the Shanghai Gold contract 2604, it is short - term cautiously bullish, with the upper pressure level at 1011 - 1016 yuan/gram and the lower support level at 1000 - 1005 yuan/gram. It is recommended to buy on dips and control the position due to large short - term fluctuations at high levels [11] 3.1.3 Relevant Data Situation - The report presents the trends of Shanghai Gold and COMEX gold prices, SPDR gold ETF holdings, COMEX gold inventory, US 10 - year Treasury bond yield, US dollar index, US dollar against offshore RMB, gold - silver ratio, Shanghai Gold basis, and gold internal - external price difference through charts [20][23][26] Silver Futures 3.2.1 Mid - line Market Analysis - The Shanghai Silver futures are in a strong upward trend and currently at the end. Last week, silver closed higher in a volatile "roller - coaster" market. It was pushed up by geopolitical risks and interest rate cut expectations at the beginning of the week, then sharply corrected due to the significant reduction of the silver weight in the Bloomberg Commodity Index, and finally stabilized and rebounded. The market is characterized by high volatility due to the intense game between long and short factors. Attention should be paid to the impact of US CPI data on the interest rate cut path and the liquidity recovery after the index rebalancing. It is recommended to wait and see [35] 3.2.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last week's strategy review**: The silver contract 2604 was operating at a high level, with the upper pressure level at 17,800 - 18,000 yuan and the lower support level at 16,800 - 17,200 yuan/kg. It was recommended to buy on dips and control the position due to increased short - term fluctuations [38] - **This week's strategy recommendation**: The silver contract 2604 is operating at a high level, with the upper pressure level at 18,200 - 18,700 yuan and the lower support level at 19,000 - 19,500 yuan/kg. It is recommended to buy on dips and control the position due to increased short - term fluctuations at high levels [39] 3.2.3 Relevant Data Situation - The report shows the trends of Shanghai Silver and COMEX silver prices, SLV silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, Shanghai Silver basis, and silver internal - external price difference through charts [46][49][51]

Core Viewpoint - Recent significant fluctuations in the international commodity market have led to a synchronized increase in oil and precious metal prices, driven by geopolitical risks, expectations of a weaker dollar, and adjustments in supply-demand dynamics [1][3][4] Geopolitical Risks - The escalation of geopolitical risks, particularly the U.S. military actions in Venezuela, has raised concerns about the stability of global energy supply chains, prompting investors to reassess the uncertainty surrounding oil supply and triggering a rebound in oil prices [3] - The changing global security environment has increased demand for safe-haven assets, with gold and silver becoming preferred choices for investors [3] Dollar Weakness - The weakening of the U.S. dollar index, exacerbated by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve following investigations into its chairman, has provided support for dollar-denominated oil and precious metal prices [3] - Historical data indicates a significant negative correlation between the dollar and commodities, with a weaker dollar reducing holding costs and attracting global capital to increase positions in commodities [3] Supply-Demand Dynamics - Structural adjustments in supply-demand dynamics are reinforcing the upward trend in prices, with OPEC+ deciding to maintain production cuts until early 2026, alleviating concerns about oversupply in the oil market [4] - In the precious metals market, continued purchases by global central banks, with a reported net purchase of 45 tons in November 2025, have bolstered demand, contributing to a solid foundation for rising gold and silver prices [4] Differentiated Price Drivers - The logic behind price increases varies between commodities, with oil prices primarily driven by short-term geopolitical risks, while gold and silver are more influenced by concerns over monetary credibility and the ongoing "de-dollarization" process [4] - Fund flows indicate this differentiation, with the oil market seeing short-term speculative inflows, while the precious metals market is characterized by a combined increase in holdings from both institutions and retail investors, evidenced by significant growth in gold ETF and physical gold bar sales [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - Copper: The medium - to long - term fundamentals of copper remain good, with supply - side capital expenditure constraints supporting a gradual upward shift in the bottom. Short - term prices are likely to stay strong due to the structural imbalance of global inventories and the risk premium of metal supply concerns. However, real terminal demand is weak at high prices. Focus on changes in CL premium, LME inventory, and the 99000 - 100000 support level [1]. - Zinc: The shortage of zinc ore at the mine end supports prices, but the import window for zinc ore is opening, limiting the downside space of TC. The supply pressure of refined zinc is relieved, and demand is suppressed. Overseas and domestic inventories are increasing. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate, with support from the tight domestic zinc ore supply and pressure from the expected supply of imported ore and weak demand feedback. Pay attention to zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes, and the 23300 - 23400 support level [4]. - Nickel: The nickel market has seen significant price fluctuations. The unclear result of the 2026 nickel ore quota in Indonesia has affected market sentiment. High nickel prices have restricted downstream transactions, and the supply and demand situation is complex. Short - term prices are expected to adjust in a wide range, with the main contract running in the 132000 - 142000 range [6]. - Stainless Steel: The stainless - steel market is mainly driven by nickel raw materials. The unclear nickel ore quota in Indonesia has affected market expectations. The supply pressure has eased slightly, but demand in the off - season is weak. The cost support from the ore end and nickel - iron is strengthened. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract in the 13400 - 14200 range [8]. - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate market has seen a significant increase in the price center last week. The supply - side shock expectation is strengthened, and demand is expected to be optimistic. The inventory situation has changed, with upstream inventory increasing and downstream inventory decreasing. The market is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend, with a focus on the 150000 breakthrough and liquidity risks [10]. - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon market is expected to continue the pattern of weak supply and demand in January. Supply may decrease by 1 - 20,000 tons, and demand is expected to decline slightly. Exports may increase. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton range [11]. - Polysilicon: In January, the polysilicon market is in a weak - demand situation, with high inventory and price pressure. There is a need for further production cuts to balance supply and demand. Pay attention to the impact of antitrust news, the possibility of production cuts, and the redistribution of industrial chain profits. The 50000 yuan/ton level may provide support, and trading is recommended to wait and see [12]. - Tin: The short - term price of tin is greatly affected by macro - sentiment. The supply side may be affected by the situation in Congo (Kinshasa), and demand shows regional differences. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and operations should be cautious [13]. - Alumina: The alumina market has been oscillating widely. The supply is rigid, and demand is weak, with inventory accumulating. The short - term price is expected to oscillate widely around the industry cash - cost line, with the main contract in the 2600 - 2950 yuan/ton range. A rebound depends on capacity - control policies or large - scale production cuts [14]. - Aluminum: The aluminum price has risen strongly, driven by macro and policy expectations. However, the fundamentals are under pressure, with supply increasing and demand being suppressed by high prices, and inventory starting to accumulate. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate widely at a high level, with the main contract in the 23000 - 25000 yuan/ton range [14]. - Aluminum Alloy: The casting aluminum - alloy market has shown a strong trend, mainly driven by cost factors. However, the supply and demand are both weak, with supply affected by raw - material shortages and demand being suppressed by high prices. Inventory has been gradually decreasing. Short - term prices are expected to oscillate in a high - level range, with the main contract in the 22000 - 24000 yuan/ton range [15]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 100275 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.77%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased to 41.94 dollars/ton [1]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 24170 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.58%. The import profit and loss was - 1887 yuan/ton [4]. - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased to 141900 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 4.80%. The LME 0 - 3 spread was - 196 dollars/ton [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 roll) remained at 13800 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of 2602 - 2603 increased to - 85 yuan/ton [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 140000 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1.08%. The inter - month spread of 2602 - 2603 was - 580 yuan/ton [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon remained at 9650 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of 2602 - 2603 decreased to 25 yuan/ton [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The average price of N - type re -投料 was 55000 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.90%. The main contract price dropped to 51300 yuan/ton [12]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price decreased to 349750 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.49%. The inter - month spread of 2601 - 2602 increased to 370 yuan/ton [13]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 24030 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.12%. The import profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum was 176.8 yuan/ton [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained at 23700 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread of 2601 - 2602 increased to - 105 yuan/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In December, electrolytic copper production was 117.81 million tons, a 6.80% increase month - on - month. In November, the import volume was 27.11 million tons, a 3.90% decrease [1]. - **Zinc**: In December, refined zinc production was 55.21 million tons, a 7.24% decrease month - on - month. In November, the import volume was 1.82 million tons, a 3.22% decrease [4]. - **Nickel**: In December, China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38% month - on - month. The import volume in November increased by 30.08% [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: In December, China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 2.50% month - on - month. The net export volume increased by 25.31% [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In December, lithium carbonate production was 99200 tons, a 4.04% increase month - on - month. The demand decreased by 2.50% [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: In January, the expected production of industrial silicon may decrease to 38 - 39 million tons. The demand is expected to decline by about 1 million tons [11]. - **Polysilicon**: In December, polysilicon production was 11.55 million tons, a 0.79% increase month - on - month. The net export volume increased by 2041.76% [12]. - **Tin**: In November, tin ore imports increased by 29.81% month - on - month. In December, SMM refined tin production decreased slightly [13]. - **Aluminum**: In December, alumina production was 751.96 million tons, a 1.08% increase month - on - month. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.97% [14]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 6.16% month - on - month. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased slightly [15]. Inventory Data - **Copper**: Domestic social inventory increased by 14.61% week - on - week to 27.38 million tons. LME inventory decreased by 1.49% day - on - day to 13.90 million tons [1]. - **Zinc**: China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 11.69% week - on - week to 11.85 million tons. LME inventory decreased by 0.51% day - on - day to 10.7 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: SHFE inventory increased by 2.43% week - on - week to 46650 tons. LME inventory increased by

摘要今日周五(1月9日)亚市时段，黄金价格一度冲高至约4600美元/盎司，刷新历史纪录。在全球不确定 性加剧的背景下，避险资金持续涌入黄金市场，同时市场对美联储年内降息的预期也为金价提供了重要 支撑。地缘政治风险是本轮金价上行的重要驱动因素。美国总统特朗普正在权衡针对伊朗的多种潜在军 事选项，此前伊朗国内发生致命抗议事件。相关不确定性显著推升市场风险厌恶情绪，强化了黄金作为 传统避险资产的吸引力。 今日周五(1月9日)亚市时段，黄金价格一度冲高至约4600美元/盎司，刷新历史纪录。在全球不确定性加 剧的背景下，避险资金持续涌入黄金市场，同时市场对美联储年内降息的预期也为金价提供了重要支 撑。地缘政治风险是本轮金价上行的重要驱动因素。美国总统特朗普正在权衡针对伊朗的多种潜在军事 选项，此前伊朗国内发生致命抗议事件。相关不确定性显著推升市场风险厌恶情绪，强化了黄金作为传 统避险资产的吸引力。 【基本面解析】 分析认为，鲍威尔或因政治压力选择留任理事至2028年，以限制特朗普对理事会的控制。特朗普与鲍威 尔的矛盾由来已久，第二任期批评更甚，甚至试图以欺诈指控驱逐其他理事，相关案件将由最高法院审 理。 【最新现货黄金 ...

周一(1月12日)亚市盘中，现货黄金价格开盘高涨，目前交投于4569.29美元/盎司附近，现货黄金在近期 盘内交易中强势上涨，突破历史阻力位4550美元，创下历史新高，显示交易中多头势头占据主导地位， 黄金的长期前景依然向好，但由于价格处于高位，短期风险有所上升。 与此同时，美国联邦储备委员会主席杰罗姆.鲍威尔表示，针对他的刑事起诉威胁是因为中央银行根据 对公众利益的最佳评估设定利率，而不是遵循总统的偏好。 从技术面来看，周线级别，金价上周再度走强收复前景跌幅，减弱了其阴包阳的见顶看空形态，同时走 势也持稳运行在5-10周均线上方，布林带也有向上延伸的倾向，这暗示看涨前景加大，金价仍有再度向 上攀升刷新历史高点的潜力。就算再度遇阻回落，也是横盘调整为主，同时也再度入场的良机。 金价稳定运行在短期均线及中轨之上，布林带向上延伸，指标维持多头信号发展，看涨前景加大，今日 开盘多头再度发力，使此预期动力加大，将继续维持目前的震荡上升趋势保持不断测试新高的预期不 便。 相对强弱指数(RSI)目前为71.82(超买)，这可能会抑制即时涨幅，并邀请在上边界附近整合。回调将在 4365美元区域的通道底部找到支撑，200SM ...