宏 观 研 究 2025 年 05 月 08 日 模糊的滞胀预期下，美联储会否全年按兵不动？ ——美联储 FOMC 会议点评（2025.5） 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 基于当前仍然稳健的经济和就业表现，以及未来可能出现的滞胀风险，美 联储年初至今连续第三次会议决定维持利率水平不变。当地时间 5 月 7 日下午， 美联储召开本年度第三次 FOMC 会议，在声明中指出"尽管净出口动荡对经 济数据造成影响"，但经济活动仍延续稳健扩张步伐，鲍威尔在新闻发布会上 补充阐述称美国国内最终购买（PDFP）一季度稳定增长 3%，与去年节奏相同； 此外声明认为经济前景的不确定性"进一步"提升，并评估认为"失业率和通 胀同步上行的风险加大"，这意味着美联储当前对美国政府关税政策影响下美 国经济在未来可能走向一定程度的滞胀存有担忧，而滞胀局面一旦出现，美联 储往往需要首先实施一定程度的紧缩，在成功控制通胀预期后才可转而实施宽 松操作。基于上述两方面原因，美联储本次会议连续第三次决定维持利率水平 不变，自年初以来未再降息。鲍威尔在发布会问答环节多次强调当前美联储"不 必着急"，"可以耐心等待"，或为暗示美联储降息的概率和幅度比市场 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are expected to move in a volatile range, while treasury bonds are expected to rise steadily [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar is recommended for temporary observation, iron ore is expected to be weakly volatile, and coking coal and coke are expected to move in a volatile range [1][7][9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended for cautious trading within a range, aluminum is not recommended for short - chasing, nickel is recommended for observation or short - selling on rallies, tin is recommended for range trading, gold is recommended for building positions on dips after a full price correction, and silver is recommended for range trading [1][11][17]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, rubber, urea, methanol, and plastic are all expected to move in a volatile range, while soda ash is recommended for observation [1][19][25]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be weakly volatile, apples are expected to move in a volatile range, and PTA is expected to be weakly volatile [1][27][28]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs are expected to be weakly volatile, eggs are expected to be weakly trending, corn is expected to be strongly volatile, soybean meal is expected to decline in a volatile manner, and oils are expected to be weakly volatile [1][29][35]. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment strategies and market outlooks for various futures products in different industries. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro - economic conditions. For example, in the black building materials industry, the supply and demand situation of iron ore and the impact of policies on steel production are considered; in the non - ferrous metals industry, factors like global economic conditions, supply and demand fundamentals, and trade policies are analyzed. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Affected by factors such as the Fed's monetary policy, geopolitical events, and domestic policies, the index futures are expected to move in a volatile range. If there is a downward trend to fill the gap, it may rebound after filling the gap; if the overall situation is stable and positive, it may be strongly volatile [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Although the "double - cut" policy has been implemented, the bond market investors are not fully satisfied. The short - end bonds are stronger, while the long - end bonds have a profit - taking market. The bond market is still in a situation with a relatively high winning rate but limited odds [5][6]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price is expected to move in a volatile range. The static valuation is low, but the policy and market expectations are weak. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production - restriction policies [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply is seasonally increasing, and the demand is also increasing, but there is an expectation of a peak and decline. Considering the high iron - water output and international trade frictions, the 09 contract is expected to be weakly volatile [7][8]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is expected to continue to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the resumption of downstream iron - water production, changes in imported coal prices, and policy expectations. The coke market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to the recovery of finished - product demand, the balance of coking - steel profits, and policy - related production - restriction disturbances [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The supply - side pressure is increasing, and the demand may be restricted by price increases and trade policies. The price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern after the holiday, and cautious trading within a range is recommended [11]. - **Aluminum**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, but the current decline is too fast, so short - chasing is not recommended [12]. - **Nickel**: The supply is in an oversupply situation, and it is expected to be weakly volatile under the influence of cost and demand factors [13][14]. - **Tin**: The supply of raw materials is tight, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The price is expected to be volatile, and range trading is recommended [15]. - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as the Fed's monetary policy, economic data, and trade policies, the prices are expected to be in an adjustment state, and range trading is recommended [17]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The demand is weak, and the supply is excessive. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to tariff negotiations and domestic stimulus policies [19]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand increment is limited. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to delivery volume, inventory, and export [20]. - **Rubber**: The demand is weak, and the supply is sufficient. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the medium term, and attention should be paid to policies, tariffs, and weather [21][22]. - **Urea**: The supply is high, and the demand is gradually released. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short term, and range operation is recommended [22]. - **Methanol**: The supply is reduced, and the demand is stable. It is expected to be volatile in the short term, and range operation is recommended [24]. - **Plastic**: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to demand, policies, and tariffs [25]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is still high, and the downstream is not optimistic. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and short - term observation is recommended [25]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton**: The global supply and demand are loose, and the downstream consumption is weak. The price is expected to be weakly volatile [27]. - **Apples**: The current inventory is low, and the price is expected to be volatile at a high level, but attention should be paid to macro - risks [27]. - **PTA**: The cost is collapsing, and the terminal export orders are poor. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to the 4200 support level [28]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The supply is increasing and postponed, and the price is under pressure. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and short - selling on rallies is recommended after taking profits [29][30]. - **Eggs**: The demand is falling after the holiday, and the supply is accumulating. The 06 contract is expected to be volatile at a low level, and the 08 and 09 contracts are considered bearish [31][32]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply is tight, and the long - term supply and demand are tightening. It is recommended to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to substitutes [32]. - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term supply is increasing, and the price is expected to decline. The long - term cost is increasing, and the price is expected to be strong. Short - selling on rallies in the short term and long - buying on dips in the long term are recommended [33][34]. - **Oils**: The short - term is expected to be weakly volatile, and attention should be paid to support levels. Bean and rapeseed oils are expected to be stronger, and attention should be paid to the spread expansion of bean - palm and rapeseed - palm oil contracts [35][40].

黑色产业日报 周三，螺纹钢期货价格冲高回落，杭州中天螺纹钢 3220 元/吨，较前一 日上涨 10 元/吨，10 合约基差 122（-11），7 日上午国新办举行新闻 发布会，央行等多部门介绍了"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有 关情况，货币政策利多落地，盘面高开低走，目前市场仍在期待财政政 策发力。后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格跌至电炉谷电成本附近， 仅仅高于长流程成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端，预计 中美关税政策仍会反复博弈，短期国内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较 小，产业端，现实供需尚可，但关税影响出口+需求季节性下滑，市场预 期偏弱，关注限产政策是否落地，预计价格震荡运行。(数据来源：同花 顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 供给方面，全球发运季节性回升，近期国内进口矿到港有所增长，港口 铁矿库存仍呈现小幅上升态势。需求方面，铁水产量大幅增长，钢厂产 能利用率提升。月末钢厂复产节奏加快，成材价格暂稳，钢厂生产积极 性提高。市场存在粗钢限产预期，但尚未见到具体政策文件出台，五千 万吨限产相较总量仍然较少，正反馈难以形成，矿价仍是弱势。基本面 铁矿属于供需均有走弱趋势，但即将进 ...

期货研究报告|宏观政策 2025-05-08 研究院 宏观组 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 高聪 gaocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 央行 5 月"双降"，关注未来财政增量政策 ——中国货币政策系列十八 宏观事件 2025 年 5 月 7 日，国新办新闻发布会介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况。 核心观点 ◼ 货币政策"双降" 背景：外部不确定性降低，内部压力对冲。4 月美国实施"对等关税"政策，经济增长面 临的不确定上升，4 月全球制造业 PMI 跌落荣枯线，中国外需在"抢出口"之后逐渐显现， 美国金融市场波动率也显著抬升。压力到了需要"缓和"的窗口。 政策：央行出台"三类十项"政策，金管总局出台"八项增量"政策，证监会推出"三条措施" 稳定和活跃资本市场。（1）总量上，降准 0.5 个百分点，降息 0.1 个百分点；（2）结构 上，汽车金融公司、金融租赁公司的存款准备金率降至 0%；结构货性货币政策工具利 率降低 ...

鲍威尔：美联储与国会在政策领域"井水不犯河水" 金十数据5月8日讯，鲍威尔谈到国会时说了一番话，引得众人一阵笑声。他说："我认为，在如何制定 财政政策方面，他们并不需要我以及我们（美联储）的建议。 就如同他们也无需在货币政策方面给我 们提建议一样。" ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：国会在财政政策上不需要我的建议。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chief economist of China Merchants Fund, Li Zhan, indicates that the incremental fiscal policy space is expected to open up in the third quarter, following a series of macroeconomic policies aimed at stabilizing the market and economy after the Politburo meeting in April [1] Group 1 - The recent press conference by the State Council Information Office marks the beginning of a series of macroeconomic policies to stabilize the market and economy [1] - The initial market reaction to the press conference was focused on the unexpected "double cut" by the central bank [1] - Li Zhan emphasizes that the true stability of the economy and market relies on the coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, especially in light of the emerging tariff impacts [1] Group 2 - It is anticipated that a comprehensive financial policy package will continue to be implemented in the second quarter [1] - The opening of incremental fiscal space in the third quarter is expected to follow the ongoing implementation of these financial policies [1]

Economic Outlook - Economists believe there is significant policy space to boost domestic demand and consumption, focusing on developing service consumption, optimizing the consumption environment, and implementing "two new" policies to stabilize employment and increase residents' income [1][28][32] Confidence Index - The "First Financial Chief Economist Confidence Index" for May is 49.84, falling below the neutral line of 50, indicating economic pressure due to declining external demand and uncertain tariff policies [5][1] Inflation and Price Trends - The predicted average year-on-year CPI for April is -0.17%, a decrease from March's -0.1%, while the PPI is expected to be -2.65%, slightly lower than March's -2.5% [8][4] Retail Sales - The predicted year-on-year growth rate for social retail sales in April is 5.45%, down from 5.9% in March, with expectations for a recovery in consumption supported by various government policies [12][28] Industrial Production - The predicted year-on-year growth rate for industrial added value in April is 5.62%, lower than March's 7.7%, indicating a potential slowdown in industrial activity [13][14] Fixed Asset Investment - The predicted average growth rate for fixed asset investment in April is 4.11%, slightly down from 4.2% in March, reflecting mixed signals in infrastructure and real estate investments [15][16] Real Estate Investment - The predicted year-on-year growth rate for real estate development investment in April remains at -9.9%, indicating ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [16][18] Trade Balance - The predicted trade surplus for April is $91.341 billion, with expectations of a decline in imports by 5.68% and a modest increase in exports by 2.48% [18][4] Financial Data - Predictions for April include new loans at 7,764 billion yuan, a significant drop from March's 36,400 billion yuan, and a total social financing amount of 1.31 trillion yuan [19][20] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China plans to implement ten policies to enhance macroeconomic control, including a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, to support economic growth [4][22] Currency and Foreign Reserves - The predicted exchange rate for the RMB against the USD by the end of May is 7.18, with foreign reserves expected to be around $32,330.11 billion by the end of April [24][25] Policy Recommendations - Economists suggest that future policies should focus on increasing disposable income for low- and middle-income groups, enhancing service consumption, and improving the consumption environment to stimulate economic growth [31][32][30]

金融研究 2025年5月7日 星期三 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：5 月 6 日，A 股四大股指全线上行，其中上证指数上涨 1.13%，报收 3316.11 点；深成指 上涨 1.84%，报收 10082.34 点；创业板指上涨 1.97%，报收 1986.41 点；科创 50 指数上涨 1.39%， 报收 1026.52 点。市场成交 13,644 亿元，较前日增加 1,714 亿元。行业板块方面，计算机(+3.65%)， 通信(+3.59%)，综合(+3.38%)涨幅居前；银行(-0.13%)，食品饮料(+0.35%)，美容护理(+0.43%)跌 幅居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 4,959/70/379。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入 196、60、-149、-107 亿元，分别变动+164、+99、-78、-184 亿元。 风险提示：美国双边政策不确定性、财政扩张进度不及预期。 市场表现：5 月 6 日，国债期货涨跌不一，其中 2 年期国债期货下跌 0.06%，报收 102.31 点，5 年 期国债期货下跌 0.04%，报收 1 ...

Core Points - The Henan Provincial Government is implementing a series of policies to ensure economic stability and growth in the second quarter, aiming for a "double over half" achievement in fiscal performance [1] - The provincial fiscal system is focused on increasing financial support for consumption and investment, with specific allocations for consumer vouchers and infrastructure projects [2] - Measures are being taken to stabilize foreign trade and support key industries affected by international trade tensions [3] - Incentives are provided for key enterprises with significant revenue growth, alongside efforts to clear government debts owed to businesses [4] - The government is committed to maintaining a strong financial foundation and managing local government debt risks effectively [5] Group 1: Fiscal Performance - In the first quarter, Henan's general public budget revenue grew by 0.2%, while expenditures increased by 3.3%, with 72.3% of expenditures allocated to social welfare [1] - The government has introduced a "1+7" policy framework to ensure adequate financial resources for the second quarter [1] Group 2: Consumption and Investment Support - The provincial government has allocated 1.5 billion yuan for consumer vouchers, with 1.1 billion yuan for retail and dining, and 400 million yuan for tourism and accommodation [2] - A total of 113.8 billion yuan in new special bond limits has been issued for infrastructure projects, with 36.45 billion yuan already allocated in the first quarter [2] Group 3: Foreign Trade and Industry Support - The government is enhancing support for foreign trade enterprises facing challenges due to international sanctions, including financial incentives for participation in international exhibitions [3] - Key industries such as automotive and specialty agricultural products are receiving support for export growth [3] Group 4: Enterprise Incentives - A one-time subsidy of 100,000 yuan will be provided to key enterprises with a revenue growth of over 10% in the second quarter of 2025 [4] - Efforts are being made to clear outstanding debts owed to businesses to improve their financial health [4] Group 5: Risk Management - The government is ensuring that all counties can meet their "three guarantees" budget requirements, with a first-quarter execution rate of 27.8% [5] - Measures are in place to manage local government debt risks, including the issuance of replacement bonds totaling 59.402 billion yuan [5]