1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, precious metal prices were relatively weak due to unexpected US inflation data. The market is closely watching Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium. If his remarks are dovish, it is recommended to go long on gold and silver at low prices. The expected trading range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 765 - 794 yuan/gram, and for Shanghai silver is 9045 - 9526 yuan/kilogram [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Market Outlook - **Market Performance**: Affected by unexpected US inflation data, gold and silver prices were weak this week. Shanghai gold fell 1.52% to 775.80 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver fell 0.80% to 9204.00 yuan/kilogram, COMEX gold fell 2.21% to 3381.70 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 1.27% to 38.02 US dollars/ounce. The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.33%, and the US dollar index fell 0.43% to 97.85 [11]. - **Inflation Data**: In July, the US CPI was 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected. The core CPI was 3.1% year - on - year, higher than expected. The PPI was 3.3% year - on - year, significantly higher than expected. These data suggest the impact of Trump's tariff policy on US prices, and Fed officials' views on inflation are divided [11]. - **Policy Expectations**: The market expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in September with a probability of 92.1%, and another rate cut in October. The fourth quarter will see the announcement of the new Fed chair, which may further boost rate - cut expectations [11]. - **Technical Analysis**: The Shanghai gold index is approaching the end of a triangular convergence, and it is recommended to buy on dips. The Shanghai silver index is forming a high - level diamond pattern, and it is advisable to look for buying opportunities around the Jackson Hole meeting [13][14]. 3.2 Market Review - **Price and Position Changes**: Gold and silver prices were weak, and both domestic and foreign gold and silver positions declined. As of August 15, the total position of Shanghai gold decreased by 1.95% to 423,600 lots, and COMEX gold decreased by 0.78% to 446,200 lots. The total position of Shanghai silver decreased by 1.16% to 761,000 lots, and COMEX silver decreased by 3% to 156,400 lots [27][29][32]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of August 15, the total holding of gold ETFs was 2185.3 tons, and the total holding of foreign silver ETFs was 27,406 tons [37]. 3.3 Interest Rates and Liquidity - **Interest Rate Trends**: The yield curve of US Treasury bonds and inflation expectations are presented through various charts. The US Federal Reserve's balance sheet shows that the Treasury General Account on the liability side replenished 5.115 billion US dollars, and the reverse repurchase balance decreased by 4.367 billion US dollars [49][52][58]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Data - **Inflation Data**: In July, the US CPI was 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI was 3.1% year - on - year. The PPI was 3.3% year - on - year, significantly higher than expected [63]. - **Employment Data**: As of August 9, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 224,000, lower than expected [66]. - **PMI and PPI**: In July, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 48, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, both lower than expected [69]. - **Housing Data**: In June, the annualized number of new housing starts in the US was 1.321 million, and the annualized number of building permits was 1.397 million, both higher than expected [72]. 3.5 Precious Metal Spreads - **Base Spreads**: The base spreads of gold and silver between TD and SHFE are presented through charts, and the spreads of both gold and silver have increased [75][77]. - **Internal and External Spreads**: The internal and external spreads of gold and silver are also presented through charts [81][83]. 3.6 Precious Metal Inventories - **Silver Inventories**: The inventories of silver in Shanghai Gold Exchange, Shanghai Futures Exchange, and COMEX are presented through charts [88][91]. - **Gold Inventories**: The inventories of gold in COMEX and LBMA are presented through charts [93].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has officially canceled the "Novel Activities Supervision Program," which was designed to regulate banks' activities in the cryptocurrency and fintech sectors, integrating this oversight into the standard banking regulatory framework [2][3]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve's Announcement - On August 15, the Federal Reserve announced the closure of the "Novel Activities Supervision Program," which was established in 2023 to enhance the regulation of banks' cryptocurrency activities [3]. - The Federal Reserve Board stated that it has deepened its understanding of the risks associated with these activities and will now incorporate this knowledge into standard regulatory processes [3]. Background of the Program - The program was initiated in response to the 2023 banking crisis, which saw the collapse of three banks closely tied to the cryptocurrency industry: Silicon Valley Bank, Silvergate Bank, and Signature Bank [3]. - The aim was to closely monitor innovative and unverified technologies that could pose risks to the banking system [3]. Key Focus Areas of the Program - The program focused on areas such as cryptocurrency custody, loans collateralized by cryptocurrencies, assistance in digital asset trading, issuance of stablecoins and dollar tokens, and projects utilizing distributed ledger technology [4]. - The latest requirements simplify compliance processes for banks engaging in cryptocurrency activities, while core regulatory principles like anti-money laundering and consumer protection remain unchanged [4]. Regulatory Environment Shift - The Federal Reserve's actions reflect a broader trend of U.S. regulatory agencies becoming more accommodating towards the cryptocurrency industry [5]. - Since the Trump administration, there has been a push to position the U.S. as a "global cryptocurrency hub," with recent regulatory changes allowing banks to independently decide on engaging in cryptocurrency activities [5]. Federal Reserve Officials' Statements - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed uncertainty regarding interest rate cuts due to mixed inflation data and ongoing tariff uncertainties [6]. - Recent data showed a 0.9% month-over-month increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for July, driven primarily by service sector inflation, which rose by 1.1% [6]. - Market expectations indicate a 92% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with varying probabilities for subsequent cuts later in the year [7].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, growing at an unprecedented rate, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and future economic implications [1][2][4]. Debt Growth and Fiscal Pressure - The U.S. national debt reached $37 trillion as of August 12, 2024, a significant increase from $36 trillion just months prior, highlighting a rapid acceleration in borrowing [3][4]. - The Peterson Foundation noted that the speed of debt accumulation is faster than ever, with the debt increasing by $1 trillion in approximately 173 days at the current daily growth rate [4]. - The debt ceiling was raised by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion under the "Big and Beautiful" act, which has contributed to a rapid increase in debt levels [4][8]. Impact on Households and Credit Ratings - If the national debt were distributed among U.S. households, each would owe approximately $280,000, with individuals facing a debt burden of about $108,000 [2]. - The rising debt levels have led to a decline in trust in U.S. fiscal management, with major credit rating agencies downgrading the U.S. credit rating due to deteriorating fiscal conditions [5]. Fiscal Structure and Spending - Mandatory spending on Social Security, Medicare, and interest on the national debt has surged from 34% of total federal spending in 1965 to 73% in 2024, limiting discretionary spending [6][8]. - Interest payments on the national debt are projected to reach $1.4 trillion by 2025, accounting for 26.5% of federal revenue [8]. Revenue Challenges and Tax Policy - The "Big and Beautiful" act is expected to reduce tax revenue by approximately $220 billion in the 2025 fiscal year, exacerbating the fiscal deficit [8][9]. - Despite a significant increase in customs revenue due to tariff policies, the overall impact on reducing the national debt is considered minimal compared to rising healthcare costs [9][10]. Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - There is a notable divide within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policies, with some members advocating for rate cuts to alleviate debt burdens while others express concerns about inflation [11][12]. - Recent economic data has fueled expectations for potential interest rate cuts, with market predictions indicating a high probability of rate reductions in the coming months [14].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet shows a significant reduction in asset size since June 2022, with current figures indicating a total of $6.6436 trillion as of August 14, 2025, down $2.2714 trillion from $8.915 trillion in June 2022, primarily due to decreases in Treasury and MBS assets [7]. Group 1: Balance Sheet Overview - The asset side of the balance sheet increased by $2.772 billion this week, with a total balance of $6.6436 trillion, recovering from the previous week [2]. - Treasury assets amount to $4.2048 trillion, while MBS stands at $2.1207 trillion [2]. - On the liability side, reverse repos decreased by $43.674 billion, with a reverse repo account size of $402.201 billion [2]. Group 2: Liquidity and Reserves - Fiscal deposits increased by $51.154 billion, bringing the fiscal deposit account balance to $515.469 billion [3]. - The total liquidity recovery this week is approximately $74.8 billion, indicating a net liquidity withdrawal of about $47.08 billion [4][5]. - The reserve balance reached $3.3328 trillion, showing an increase from the previous week [6]. Group 3: Inflation and Interest Rate Outlook - The Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.9% in July, exceeding market expectations, driven by rising costs in goods and services, which may impact consumer prices [7]. - Concerns about service sector inflation are growing among Federal Reserve officials, with Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee closely monitoring inflation's spread beyond tariff-affected goods [7]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet advocates for a more aggressive rate cut next month, suggesting a starting point of a 25 basis point reduction [8]. - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly expressed increasing support for rate cuts due to a softening labor market, with market expectations shifting away from significant rate cuts following the recent data release [9].

昨晚美国7月PPI数据直接打掉了市场大幅降息的幻想，甚至连9月是否降息也变得不那么笃定。 7月PPI环比涨幅从0.00%飙升至0.9%——这种跳升，年化就接近11%，非常夸张——直接把市场"温和通 胀"的剧本撕了。而且上涨核心动力来自服务价格和关税传导，说明即使消费者现在还没完全感受到， 后面也可能通过商品和服务价格慢慢体现出来。数据公布后，市场完全放弃了50个基点降息的预期。 让我们感受最深的是，圣路易斯联储主席穆萨莱姆在数据发布后的讲话。 首先，他接受的是CNBC长达14分钟的电视专访，意图很明显直接面向专业投资者。这与近期美联储官 员在某个俱乐部、某个协会的低调演讲不同。 穆萨莱姆说了几句挺关键的话，但"字字插中要害"： 来源:金融界 2）核心PCE通胀率在7月可能从一个月前的2.8%回升至2.9%——美联储直接发出对关键数据的预测，非 常罕见，几乎等于官方剧透。 3）企业告诉我们，成本传导大约需要三到六个月——关税的影响还没完全显现出来。 4）关税对通胀的影响很可能在未来几个月消退，但有相当大的可能会更持久——他没完全唱衰，但意 思是别太乐观，关税的通胀影响可能比想象的更顽固。 降息故事又被搅了。这是 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Weak non-farm payrolls and limited CPI increase, combined with pressure from Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin for the Federal Reserve to cut rates, have led to high market expectations for a rate cut in September, putting pressure on the dollar and allowing gold to rebound [1] - Upcoming data on July PPI and initial jobless claims is anticipated; if PPI remains moderate and jobless claims increase, it is expected to provide further upward momentum for gold [1] Technical Analysis - The one-hour chart for gold shows a bullish trend after a period of consolidation, indicating increased buying interest; if there is a pullback that does not break previous support, the upward trend may continue, suggesting a short-term long position [2] - Suggested trading strategy for gold includes a long position at 3358, with a stop loss below 3346 and a target range of 3374-3385 [4] Technical Analysis (Oil) - The one-hour chart for WTI crude oil indicates that it has failed to break resistance and is experiencing a pullback, reflecting strong selling pressure; if the price does not break resistance on the next rebound, the downward trend may continue, suggesting a short position [5] - Suggested trading strategy for oil includes a short position at 62.17, with a stop loss above 63.12 and a target range of 60.74-61.34 [6]

他重申了本周早些时候的观点，即对于7月消费者价格指数(CPI)中显示的高企服务业通胀感到担忧，但 强调不应对单月数据反应过度，包括周五公布的进口价格上涨数据。 今年以来，美联储官员一直按兵不动，维持利率不变，以观察关税和其他政策变化对美国经济的影响。 根据利率期货市场的定价，投资者普遍押注美联储将在9月会议上重启降息。古尔斯比则强调，希望等 待更多经济数据出炉，并指出美国经济"依然有很多韧性"。 美国芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比表示，在确信持续的通胀压力未再升温之前，他希望至少再看到一份通胀 数据。 古尔斯比周五在接受采访时表示，近期的通胀数据"有些参差不齐"，他认为"至少还需要再看一份数 据，才能判断我们是否依然走在'黄金路径'上。" 与此同时，美国工业产出在7月环比下降0.1%，占比四分之三的制造业产出在6月上修后保持不变，采 矿和公用事业产出双双下滑。制造业年初曾在关税出台前接到大量订单，但自此以后，受需求降温、资 本支出放缓及贸易政策不确定性影响，产量趋于疲软。生产商还面临消费者支出不均、关税推高部分原 材料价格等挑战。 在贸易政策方面，美国总统特朗普周五在飞往阿拉斯加与俄罗斯总统普京会晤途中表示，将在未来 ...

Group 1 - Economist Marc Sumerlin stated that the Federal Reserve's federal funds rate is "too high" and that a 50 basis point rate cut is feasible due to an inverted yield curve [1] - Sumerlin emphasized that the housing market is the weakest part of the U.S. economy [1] - He does not believe there is an issue with the size of the Federal Reserve's staff, but rather that the "setup is completely wrong" [1] Group 2 - Sumerlin mentioned that the problem lies in "redundancy" within the Federal Reserve [2] - He is noted to have been a former official during the George W. Bush administration and is reportedly being considered for the position of Federal Reserve Chair [2]

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an aluminum industry weekly report, covering market conditions from multiple aspects including macro - economy, supply and demand [5] Group 2: Bull - Bear Focus Bullish Factors - There are signs of improvement in overall consumer spending and aluminum production is gradually resolving power - related issues [8] - The domestic spot price has shifted from a discount to par [46] Bearish Factors - The US PPI is expected to continue to decline and social inventories may exceed expectations [8] Group 3: Data Analysis Macroeconomic Data - US July CPI was 2.7% year - on - year, core CPI was 3.1% year - on - year, and PPI soared 0.9% year - on - year and month - on - month. Market expectations for a Fed rate cut in September are high but there is still room for debate [10] - China has introduced multiple policies to boost consumption, such as personal and service - sector loan subsidy policies, and 188 billion yuan of investment subsidies for equipment upgrades have been allocated [14] Supply - side Data - From January to July 2025, China's bauxite production was 35.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.21%. In July, it was 5.4345 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.42%. However, due to the rainy season in Guinea, future imports may decline [16][18] - Alumina supply has an excess expectation. Overseas prices are falling, and domestic prices are oscillating weakly [22][24] - In July 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. In August, the output was 3.73 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 1.1%. But the growth space is limited [26] Demand - side Data - Affected by the off - season, the operating rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises is declining. However, the automobile industry is booming, with new energy vehicle production in July 2025 reaching 1.176 million units, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The real estate market is still bottoming out [32][36][38] Inventory Data - LME aluminum inventories are rising, while SHFE aluminum inventories are falling. Aluminum ingot social inventories are accumulating, but the current level is relatively low [41][44] Price and Cost Data - The cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is relatively stable, and it is expected to maintain a profit of over 3,000 yuan per ton in the second half of the year [29] - The price of aluminum alloy futures tends to follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum futures [57] Group 4: Future Outlook - Aluminum prices have good support below, and attention should be paid to the support at the 40 - day moving average of 20,600 [59]

Domestic Policies - The US-China trade talks resulted in a 90-day suspension of a 24% tariff on each other's goods, effective August 12, 2025[6] - A personal consumption loan subsidy policy was introduced, offering a 1% annual interest subsidy for loans used for consumption from September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026[8] - A service industry loan subsidy policy was also announced, providing a 1% annual interest subsidy for loans to eight specified service sectors, with a maximum loan amount of 1 million yuan per entity[11] Economic Indicators - China's final consumption expenditure contributed 52.0% to economic growth in the first half of 2025, up 0.3 percentage points from the first quarter[10] - In July, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.8%, while the core CPI increased by 3.1%, exceeding expectations[19] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in the US for July recorded a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, surpassing market expectations of 2.9%[19] Market Trends - Brent crude oil prices fell by 2.05% week-on-week, while iron ore prices rose by 0.11% and copper prices increased by 0.95%[23] - Real estate sales in 30 major cities increased by 2.12% week-on-week, with first-tier cities seeing a 2.82% rise[33] - The average daily retail sales of passenger cars in the first week of August decreased by 4% year-on-year, despite a 6% increase compared to the previous month[33] Future Outlook - The upcoming focus includes the US NAHB housing market index and new housing starts data, as well as the Jackson Hole global central bank conference later in August[2] - The market anticipates a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, driven by recent economic data and inflation trends[21]