Core Viewpoint - The early start of the 2026 tax season is expected to quickly benefit Americans from the tax cuts passed by the Republican Party, providing a positive impact on the U.S. economy [1] Group 1: Tax Season and Economic Impact - The IRS will begin accepting tax returns on January 26, marking one of the earliest tax seasons in a decade [1] - The early tax season is anticipated to facilitate the rapid realization of benefits from the Republican tax cuts for American citizens [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy - The Treasury Secretary urged the Federal Reserve to adopt an "open-minded" approach to monetary policy [1] - There is an emphasis on the Fed's responsibility to help stimulate investment in the economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is maintaining liquidity in the banking system through a series of monetary policy tools, including a significant reverse repurchase operation of 1.1 trillion yuan, indicating a continued supportive stance for the economy [1][4][6]. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - On January 8, the PBOC conducted a 1.1 trillion yuan buyout reverse repo operation with a term of 3 months, marking the third consecutive month of equal volume operations [1][4]. - The PBOC also executed a 99 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation on the same day, highlighting the distinction between buyout and regular reverse repos in terms of ownership transfer and liquidity management [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that the equal volume continuation of the 3-month buyout reverse repo is linked to the funding needs of financial institutions and does not indicate a reduction in liquidity provision [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Context and Projections - The combined buyout reverse repo operations for January are expected to inject medium-term liquidity into the market for the eighth consecutive month, driven by the need to support major projects and economic recovery [4][6]. - The early issuance of local government bonds for 2026 and the completion of a 500 billion yuan policy financial tool in October 2025 are anticipated to stimulate loan growth and enhance the "opening red" effect in credit [4][6]. - The PBOC is likely to utilize both buyout reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) tools to maintain liquidity, reflecting a continued "moderately loose" monetary policy stance [4][6]. Group 3: Broader Monetary Policy Tools - In May 2025, the PBOC reduced the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity into the market [5]. - The PBOC's 2026 work conference emphasized the importance of maintaining liquidity and promoting high-quality economic development through flexible monetary policy tools [6]. - Market expectations for further reserve requirement cuts and interest rate reductions are present, although the timing for such measures may be delayed due to the effectiveness of growth-stabilizing policies and strong external demand [6].

Core Viewpoint - Current policy interest rates are considered "clearly above neutral levels" according to Federal Reserve Governor Milan, who also anticipates a cumulative interest rate cut of approximately 150 basis points by 2026 [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - Milan emphasizes that it is "hard to believe" that current policy rates are neutral, indicating a preference for lower interest rates [1] - He advocates for the potential of the U.S. economy to expand employment without triggering inflation, suggesting that around one million jobs could be added without causing inflationary pressures [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The ADP Research report shows that private sector employment in the U.S. increased by 41,000 in December, which fell short of market expectations [1] - The upcoming non-farm payroll data from the U.S. Labor Department is anticipated, with economists predicting a slight decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.5% for December [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent statements made by Xie Guangqi, the new head of the Monetary Policy Department of the People's Bank of China, regarding the implementation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy in 2026 to promote stable economic growth and reasonable price recovery [1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Implementation - The Central Economic Work Conference has emphasized the continuation of a moderately accommodative monetary policy in 2026, with the People's Bank of China committed to fully implementing this directive [1]. - The focus will be on enhancing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to stabilize economic growth and ensure reasonable price recovery [1]. Group 2: Background of the Monetary Policy Department - The Monetary Policy Department is a core division of the central bank, responsible for formulating, executing, and regulating monetary policy, closely tied to China's financial reform and the evolution of its monetary policy framework [3]. - Established in 1998, the department's core functions include formulating and implementing monetary policy, utilizing tools, and maintaining currency stability [3]. Group 3: Profile of Xie Guangqi - Xie Guangqi, born in 1977, has a Ph.D. in economics from Peking University and has been with the People's Bank of China since 2004, holding various positions within the Monetary Policy Department [5]. - He has been a key contributor to significant economic and monetary policy reports and has witnessed and participated in the critical transformation of China's monetary policy [6]. Group 4: Contributions to Monetary Policy - Xie has provided in-depth analyses and forward-looking policy recommendations, including a 2010 report on inflation mechanisms and a 2014 commentary on the challenges faced by small and micro enterprises in accessing loans [7]. - His insights emphasize the importance of monitoring various factors affecting macroeconomic stability and the need for a balanced approach to monetary policy that does not compromise long-term goals for short-term structural stimuli [7].

Core Viewpoint - The Russian ruble appreciated by 45% in 2025, leading among major global currencies, marking the largest increase since 1994. This appreciation, while positioning the ruble among the top five assets globally in terms of returns, poses potential risks to the Russian economy, particularly in balancing export competitiveness and foreign exchange income in 2026 [1][10]. Group 1: Ruble Performance and Economic Impact - The ruble's rise contradicts expectations of depreciation due to falling oil prices and geopolitical tensions, with the USD/RUB exchange rate stabilizing below 80 rubles per dollar by year-end, down from over 100 rubles at the beginning of the year [2][4]. - International financial sanctions have reduced Russia's demand for foreign exchange, leading to a decreased need for rubles among businesses and consumers. The restructuring of payment flows to favor domestic currencies in trade has further diminished reliance on the USD and EUR [4][5]. - The ruble's strength is attributed to reduced foreign exchange dependency, tight monetary policy, and structural changes in productivity, with experts noting that the ruble's appreciation has significantly impacted the economy, contributing to a slowdown [5][6]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Inflation - The Central Bank of Russia's high benchmark interest rates have been a key factor in the ruble's strength, with a series of rate cuts in the latter half of 2025 reducing the rate from 21% to 16% [6][7]. - Inflation rates have decreased, with December figures showing inflation below 6%, but risks remain due to fiscal stimulus and potential price increases from VAT hikes [7][8]. - The Russian economy is projected to grow at approximately 1% in 2025, with factors such as reduced fiscal stimulus and the impact of tight monetary policy on businesses and consumers contributing to this slowdown [8][11]. Group 3: Structural Changes and Future Outlook - The Russian economy is undergoing a structural transformation, with experts indicating that the transition's success will depend on resolving geopolitical issues and effectively reallocating investments to civilian sectors [9][10]. - Economists predict that the ruble may stabilize in 2026, but its strength could undermine Russia's export competitiveness in energy and raw materials, which are crucial for foreign exchange income [10][11]. - The key challenge for 2026 will be maintaining a balance between a strong ruble and export competitiveness, especially as oil revenues decline and the Central Bank reduces foreign exchange sales [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the dilemma faced by the Bank of Indonesia in monetary policy formulation due to high expansionary fiscal and monetary policies leading to potential inflationary pressures, which may be alleviated by the upcoming harvest season and strengthened government price controls [1][1]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Challenges - The Bank of Indonesia is expected to have room for further interest rate cuts to support economic growth, as inflation is projected to remain within the target range [1][1]. - Concerns over the depreciation of the Indonesian Rupiah may limit the central bank's ability to pursue a monetary easing cycle [1][1]. Group 2: Currency Performance - Since 2025, the Indonesian Rupiah has been the second worst-performing currency against the US dollar among emerging markets in Asia [1][1].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will conduct a 1.1 trillion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation with a term of 3 months, indicating a continuation of liquidity support for the third consecutive month [1] - The 1.1 trillion yuan 3-month buyout reverse repurchase operation on January 8 corresponds to the same amount maturing on the same day, suggesting a rollover of liquidity [1] - Analysts expect the PBOC to conduct another 6-month buyout operation in January, as there is an additional 600 billion yuan maturing, which would further inject medium-term liquidity into the market [1] Group 2 - To support major projects and economic recovery, the new local government debt limit for 2026 has been set, indicating that government bonds will be issued in January [2] - The completion of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools in October 2025 is expected to drive rapid growth in loans in January, enhancing the "opening red" effect of credit [2] - The PBOC is likely to use both buyout reverse repos and Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) tools in January to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy and ensure ample liquidity in the market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) currently sees no reason to adjust monetary policy as inflation in the Eurozone remains close to the 2% target level [1] Group 1: ECB's Current Stance - ECB Governing Council member and Bank of Portugal Governor Álvaro Santos Pereira stated that the ECB is in a good position and has achieved price stability [1] - Pereira emphasized that monetary policy has fulfilled its role in supporting the economy when necessary [1] Group 2: Responsibility Shift - The responsibility for addressing the sluggish growth in the European economy has shifted to national governments and the European Union [1] - Pereira highlighted the importance of deepening the single market and noted that the EU still lacks a truly unified market [1] - He stated that reforms must be advanced to fully leverage the potential of the 450 million consumer market in Europe, particularly within the single market [1]

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, and there is still an expectation of long - term easing. Treasury bond futures are expected to mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [1][5] Group 3 1. Variety view reference - Financial futures index sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "oscillating", the intraday view is "weakening", and the reference view is "oscillating and consolidating". The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the long - term easing expectation still exists [1] 2. Main variety price market driving logic - Financial futures index sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillating and consolidating". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly pulled back yesterday. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026. Considering the strong resilience of short - term macro data and the supply - side pressure of intensive Treasury bond issuance in the first quarter, Treasury bond futures prices are under pressure. In the long run, there is still a possibility of interest rate cuts, and the support for Treasury bond futures still exists [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Precious metals may face short - term significant corrections in January next year due to the Fed's "holding steady", but this does not mean the end of the current gold and silver upward cycle [2] - The Trump administration has the motivation to further loosen fiscal policy under the pressure of the mid - term elections, and the Fed will enter a new and more aggressive interest - rate cut cycle after Powell officially leaves office [2] - Currently, the short - term prices of gold and silver have fully reflected the expectations of monetary and fiscal policies. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the context of large price fluctuations, and not to open new long or short positions, while being aware of the risk of price surges followed by declines [2] Summary by Related Content Market Quotes and Data - On January 8, 2026, Shanghai gold fell 0.31% to 1002.20 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver fell 2.99% to 19020.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 4470.40 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 78.45 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.15%, and the US dollar index was 98.73 [1] - The global major silver ETF holdings continued to decline. The SLV silver ETF holdings decreased by 235.4 tons yesterday and another 18.33 tons today. The BCOM commodity index rebalancing time is approaching, and major exchanges have raised margin levels, leading the market to focus on the risk of silver price decline from high levels [1] - The US employment data released yesterday was all weaker than expected. The number of ADP employed people in December was 41,000, lower than the expected 47,000. The number of JOLTS job openings in November was 7.146 million, significantly lower than the expected 7.6 million and the previous value of 7.67 million. After the data release, the upward range of gold and silver prices was limited [1] Price and Volume Data of Gold - COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) on January 7, 2026, was 4467.10 US dollars/ounce, down 0.86% from the previous day, and its trading volume increased by 17.87% to 197,100 lots, while the position decreased by 2.08% to 481,900 lots, and the inventory remained unchanged at 1132 tons [5] - LBMA gold's closing price on January 7, 2026, was 4438.00 US dollars/ounce, down 1.17% from the previous day [5] - SHFE gold's closing price (active contract) on January 7, 2026, was 998.90 yuan/gram, down 0.60% from the previous day, the trading volume increased by 5.79% to 3.26 million lots, the position decreased by 0.68% to 3.163 million lots, the inventory decreased by 0.05% to 97.65 tons, and the settled funds flowed out by 1.28% to 50.555 billion yuan [5] - AuT + D's trading volume on January 7, 2026, was 63.13 tons, up 42.67% from the previous day, and the position decreased by 3.98% to 190.92 tons [5] Price and Volume Data of Silver - COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) on January 7, 2026, was 77.98 US dollars/ounce, down 3.99% from the previous day, the position increased by 1.08% to 157,400 lots, and the inventory decreased by 0.77% to 13,864 tons [5] - LBMA silver's closing price on January 7, 2026, was 78.99 US dollars/ounce, up 0.65% from the previous day [5] - SHFE silver's closing price (active contract) on January 7, 2026, was 19,290.00 yuan/kilogram, down 0.83% from the previous day, the trading volume increased by 12.02% to 32.443 million lots, the position decreased by 1.08% to 6.752 million lots, the inventory decreased by 4.82% to 553.43 tons, and the settled funds flowed out by 1.90% to 35.166 billion yuan [5] - AgT + D's trading volume on January 7, 2026, was 823.59 tons, down 6.05% from the previous day, and the position increased by 1.33% to 3,033,278 tons [5] Price Structure and Spread Data - The report provides data on the near - far month structure of COMEX gold, London gold - COMEX gold, Shanghai gold, Au(T + D) - Shanghai gold, COMEX silver, London silver - COMEX silver, Shanghai silver, and Ag(T + D) - Shanghai silver [20][21][33][35] - On January 7, 2026, the SHFE - COMEX gold spread was - 2.72 yuan/gram (- 12.10 US dollars/ounce), and the SGE - LBMA gold spread was - 1.96 yuan/gram (- 8.72 US dollars/ounce). The SHFE - COMEX silver spread was 1835.33 yuan/kilogram (8.16 US dollars/ounce), and the data of the SGE - LBMA silver spread was also provided [49]