Oil Market - Crude oil prices have declined for the second consecutive day due to concerns over oversupply and falling refined oil prices, with WTI crude down 1.1% to approximately $58 per barrel [2][6] - The spread between gasoline and crude oil prices has reached its weakest level since February, indicating a significant drop in refined oil demand [2][6] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that U.S. crude oil production will reach a record average of 13.61 million barrels per day this year, exacerbating concerns over short-term oversupply [2][6] Precious Metals - Silver prices surged above $60 per ounce, reaching a new historical high, driven by expectations that the Federal Reserve will further ease monetary policy [3][8] - The spot silver price increased by 4.5% to $60.79 per ounce, supported by tight supply conditions in the market [9][10] - Gold prices also rose, reflecting the overall bullish sentiment in precious metals due to anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [3][10] Base Metals - Copper prices have retreated from historical highs, with a recent peak of $11,771 per ton, as investors adopt a cautious stance ahead of the Federal Reserve's meeting [11][12] - The 14-day relative strength index for copper has recently surpassed 70, indicating potential overextension in price increases [11] - LME copper closed down 1.3% at $11,487 per ton, with other base metals like aluminum, nickel, zinc, tin, and lead also experiencing declines [12]

法国总统马克龙呼吁欧洲央行在货币政策上改变思路，以提振单一市场并防范金融危机风险。 马克龙在接受采访时表示，如果欧盟希望发挥其本土市场和高储蓄率等优势，欧洲央行就需要改变思 路。 "鉴于美元和人民币被用作经济工具并且欧洲经济增长陷入停滞，在我看来，当前欧洲货币政策完全可 以进行重大调整，"马克龙表示，"重新确认欧洲内部市场的重要价值，意味着我们不能只将通胀作为唯 一目标，还要兼顾经济增长和就业。" 欧元区领导人通常避免对央行货币政策发表评论，决策者也一贯强调央行独立性是其有效运作的关键。 与美联储肩负"充分就业"和"物价稳定"的双重使命不同，欧洲央行的核心目标是通胀，即通胀率在中期 内保持在2%左右。马克龙此前曾呼吁欧洲央行扩大政策考量范围，他在去年欧洲议会选举前的演讲中 建议增加"经济增长目标"，甚至可能加入"去碳化"的相关目标。 法国总统马克龙呼吁欧洲央行在货币政策上改变思路，以提振单一市场并防范金融危机风险。 马克龙在接受采访时表示，如果欧盟希望发挥其本土市场和高储蓄率等优势，欧洲央行就需要改变思 路。 "鉴于美元和人民币被用作经济工具并且欧洲经济增长陷入停滞，在我看来，当前欧洲货币政策完全可 以进行重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent weakening of 30-year government bonds and the potential for a re-pricing of the 30-year to 10-year government bond yield spread due to changes in institutional participation and expectations, despite a low interest rate environment [1][2]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Environment and Yield Spread - The narrowing of the yield spread between 30-year and 10-year government bonds since 2023 is attributed to both declining interest rates and the influence of trading and speculative forces [1]. - Historical data suggests that the core determinants of the 30-year to 10-year yield spread are not solely based on interest rates but also on the economic cycle and policy orientation [1][2]. Future Expectations - The low interest rate environment does not necessarily lead to a downward shift in the yield spread's central tendency or a continuous narrowing of its fluctuation range [2]. - The central tendency of the 30-year to 10-year yield spread may rise to 40 basis points (bp), with an expanded fluctuation range of 30-50 bp, influenced by changes in policy environment, economic expectations, and institutional behavior [2]. Long-term and Short-term Factors - Long-term factors affecting yield spread volatility include the pressure from the stock-bond relationship, price fluctuations in cyclical goods, and potential underperformance of monetary policy [3]. - In the short term, there are signs of recovery in the 10-year government bonds and T contracts, suggesting gradual participation, while the 30-year bonds require further observation [3]. Investment Strategy - If the 30-year to 10-year yield spread continues to widen, there may be entry opportunities, but investors should be aware of the current wide fluctuations, which could exceed 20 bp [3].

除了货币政策，此次会议还有哪些议题值得关注？ 美联储是否会降息？ 美国联邦储备委员会12月货币政策例会于当地时间12月9日和10日举行。市场普遍认为，考虑到近期美 国就业市场数据疲软，美联储很可能在本月将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到3.50%至3.75%之 间。 监制 | 刘轶瑶 策划 | 杨卓英 记者 | 单姗 后期 | 汲洋 《闪评》邀请中国人民大学经济学院教授王晋斌进行解读。 来源 | 总台环球资讯 签审 | 杨卓英 ...

For more on this, we want to bring in former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester. She's a senior scholar at at Princeton. She's an adjunct professor at UPUP's Wharton School and a CNBC contributor.And Loretta, let's talk about what Steve was just laying out. In his survey, 87% said they will cut, 45% said they should. Where do you come down on both of those questions.>> So, I think they definitely will cut. I mean, they signaled that quite clearly in President Williams speech, New York Fed president um b ...

（原标题：风向突变！从欧美到澳洲 全球交易员正押注降息叙事终结） 智通财经APP获悉，从澳大利亚、欧洲到美国，交易员们正日益押注全球央行的货币政策宽松步伐将放 缓甚至完全停止。 市场重新定价的直接影响很可能是债券收益率上行。尽管美国、欧洲、英国及日本的国债收益率在周二 小幅回落，但整体来看，本月以来各主要经济体国债收益率均已大幅攀升。 不过，短期来看，美联储将于当地时间周三公布的货币政策决议，或将限制收益率的进一步波动空间。 此外，美国方面还将于周二晚些时候发布10月职位空缺数据。 瑞穗国际策略师Evelyne Gomez-Liechti表示："若此次公布的数据表现疲软，或许足以推动美元利率收 复过去几个交易日的部分失地。" 即便是外界普遍预测本月将启动降息的美国，其2026年的政策前景也在发生变化。交易员目前预计，美 联储明年仅会降息两次，较上月末预测的三次有所下调。 德意志银行全球宏观研究主管Jim Reid在一份客户报告中指出："一个显著的趋势是，越来越多经济体 的市场定价已将加息视为下一轮货币政策动向。若美国也步入这一行列，风险资产价格及明年整体经济 前景无疑将被彻底颠覆。" 此次市场对货币政策路径的 ...

All right, why don't we start off with your uh forecast for the average price for both WTI and Brent coming up in the new year. It's kind of pretty much where we're at right now. Why do you see things pretty much being flat on average.>> So, we just to be clear, we have a $60 a barrel um brand forecast and $57 a barrel WTI forecast average for next year. And uh we think prices will likely be a little weaker in the first half of next year and maybe uh things can improve into the second half. Um now remember ...

Core Insights - The adjustment of risk factors for insurance funds' stock investments is expected to release more incremental capital into the A-share market, potentially bringing in approximately 545 billion yuan in 2026, assuming a 15% growth in the balance of insurance fund utilization and an average stock investment ratio of 9.7% [1][3][9] - The regulatory measures since 2025 have systematically guided insurance funds into the market as "patient capital" through a combination of increasing upper limits, expanding pilot programs, optimizing long-term assessments, and finely tuning risk factors [3][8] Liquidity Analysis - As of September 2025, the balance of insurance fund utilization reached 37.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 17%, contributing approximately 347.7 billion yuan in incremental funds from January to September 2025 [3][9] - The recent market liquidity indicators show a net inflow of funds in the secondary market, with a rise in financing balances and net purchases of 76.4 billion yuan [3][26] Monetary Policy and Interest Rates - The central bank's recent operations included a net withdrawal of 848 billion yuan, with short-term interest rates declining and long-term rates rising, indicating a mixed monetary policy environment [14][15] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment has shown a decrease in trading activity, with a decline in the proportion of financing funds in A-share transactions to 11.0% [38] - The VIX index has decreased, reflecting an improvement in risk appetite in overseas markets [40] Sector Preferences - The sectors attracting significant net inflows include electronics, machinery, and non-ferrous metals, while sectors like banking and non-bank financials experienced net outflows [48][49] - The net buying activity in financing funds was notably high in machinery equipment (+31.6 billion yuan) and non-ferrous metals (+29.7 billion yuan) [48][49] Individual Stock Preferences - The stocks with the highest net purchases included C Moer-U (+17.0 billion yuan) and Tianfu Communication (+17.0 billion yuan), while the highest net sales were seen in Zhongji Xuchuang (-14.7 billion yuan) and Dongshan Precision (-9.1 billion yuan) [50]

Core Viewpoint - The British pound has shown slight appreciation against the US dollar, supported by the OECD's upward revision of the UK's economic growth forecast, while market expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Bank of England are limiting aggressive bullish sentiment [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The OECD has raised its growth forecast for the UK, predicting that the Bank of England will end its current easing cycle by the second quarter of 2026, which strengthens market confidence in the UK's economic resilience [1] - Recent inflation data from the UK has indicated a decline, intensifying market bets on the Bank of England initiating a rate cut in the upcoming meeting, thereby constraining the upward potential of the pound [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in its upcoming monetary policy meeting, which has hindered the recent rebound of the US dollar and provided passive support for the pound [1] - The technical analysis indicates a clear rebound trend for the pound against the dollar, with the price currently above short-term moving averages, suggesting some mid-term upward momentum [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - A strong resistance zone has formed at a specific price range, overlapping with previous high trading volume areas, which may suppress bullish momentum unless the price can effectively break through this resistance [2] - Indicators such as MACD show a slowing momentum, while the RSI remains in a neutral to strong zone, indicating that while upward momentum is not fully exhausted, stronger fundamental support is needed for a breakout [2]

Group 1: Core Views - Trump's support for immediate significant interest rate cuts will be a key criterion for selecting the next Federal Reserve Chair, indicating his intention to intervene in monetary policy and potentially escalating tensions between the White House and the Fed [1][2] - Despite Trump's optimistic assessment of the economy, dissatisfaction among voters regarding living costs is rising, with about half of voters and nearly 40% of Trump supporters indicating that living costs are at their worst level ever [1][3] Group 2: Economic Assessment - There is a notable gap between Trump's optimistic evaluation of the economy and the reality experienced by voters, as he attributes dissatisfaction with prices to the Biden administration while claiming that "everything is getting cheaper" [3] - The latest consumer price index data shows a 3% increase in prices over the past 12 months, contradicting Trump's claims of declining prices [1][3] Group 3: Healthcare Subsidy Concerns - The expiration of enhanced healthcare subsidies under the Affordable Care Act is a looming threat to many Americans, with expected significant increases in healthcare costs by 2026 [4] - Trump's vague response regarding the temporary extension of these subsidies and his absence from healthcare policy negotiations highlight potential challenges in reaching a bipartisan agreement [4] - Despite repeated promises to unveil a comprehensive alternative to the Affordable Care Act, Trump has not provided specific plans on how to achieve lower healthcare costs [4]