Core Viewpoint - The gold price continues to rise, reaching a historical high due to persistent interest rate cut expectations, frequent cryptocurrency hacking incidents, and risks of a U.S. government shutdown [1] Group 1: Gold Price Movement - On September 23, COMEX gold futures prices touched a record high of $3824.6 per ounce during intraday trading, closing at $3796.9 per ounce, marking a 0.58% increase [1] - Year-to-date, gold prices have surged over 43%, achieving the best annual performance in history [1] - Gold ETFs, such as Huaxia (518850), rose by 1.19%, while gold stock ETFs (159562) increased by 1.27% [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Insights - New Federal Reserve Governor Milan expressed a controversial view that the benchmark interest rate is significantly above a reasonable level and should be aggressively lowered [1] - Milan suggested a potential interest rate cut space of nearly 2 percentage points, although this view has isolated him within the Federal Reserve [1] Group 3: Market Analysis - Current interest rate cut expectations are identified as the primary bullish driver for gold [1] - Moderate inflation combined with weak employment conditions clears the way for potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with Fed Watch indicating expectations for three rate cuts within the year [1] - The upcoming leadership change at the Federal Reserve may enhance Trump's influence, increasing the potential for future rate cuts and raising concerns about the Fed's independence, which could further weaken the dollar's credibility and provide greater elasticity for gold prices [1]

市场震荡，黄金价"过山车"：降息预期与央行措辞的拉锯战 2025年9月20日，黄金市场上演了一场惊心动魄的"过山车"。交易大厅里，买卖双方的心情如同被释放的野猫，既充满期待又焦躁不安。 一边是市场对降息的殷切期盼，另一边则是对美联储措辞的谨慎戒备，这种复杂情绪交织，将整个市场搅得天翻地覆。 当日纽约尾盘，现货黄金价格触及3684.93美元/盎司，劲扬1.12%；期货黄金亦跟随攀升至3719.42美元/盎司，涨幅同样为1.12%。这一波 上涨，让本周黄金累计涨幅逼近1%。表面上看，这似乎是一次漂亮的"失地收复"，然而，深入剖析，却能发现其中暗流涌动，支撑并不 稳固。正如一位在场内进行日内交易的操盘手私下透露："涨幅数据很好看，但筹码并不干净。"他话语中流露出的不安与庆幸，正是市 场真实写照的缩影。 回溯至9月17日，美联储如期宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率下调至4.00%—4.25%区间。本应成为黄金的重大利好，因为降低名义 利率通常会压低持有美元的机会成本，从而提振金价。事实也如预期般，黄金盘中一度飙升至3707美元，创下历史新高。然而，好景不 不长，随后的两个交易日，金价出现连续回吐，短线大幅下挫。这是 ...

Group 1 - The core message from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech indicates that stock valuations are considered high, which has caused a negative reaction in the market, leading to declines in major indices such as the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq [2] - Following Powell's remarks, there was a notable decline in various asset classes, including a drop in the dollar and gold prices, reflecting a chaotic market environment. Powell's dovish tone, emphasizing concerns over employment rather than inflation, contributed to the dollar's decline [2][3] - The technology sector experienced a significant drop of 1.5%, symbolizing a shift in market sentiment from exuberance to caution, as previous bullish trends driven by AI themes and interest rate cut expectations have been exhausted [3] Group 2 - The current market volatility is unusually low, suggesting a lack of awareness regarding risks, which could lead to sudden market fluctuations. Historical patterns indicate that major declines often occur during periods of calm [3] - The recent market downturn is not merely a minor dip but serves as a psychological warning, indicating that investor confidence may be wavering [4]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials expressed limited reasons for further interest rate cuts, with expectations of only one cut this year [1][2] - There is a significant divergence in opinions among officials regarding the appropriate interest rate levels and inflation targets [4][8] - The market is closely watching Fed Chair Powell's upcoming comments on the economic outlook, which may influence future monetary policy [6][8] Group 2 - Following the recent interest rate cut, there was a notable increase in gold ETF holdings, with SPDR Gold Trust's holdings rising to 1000.57 tons, the highest since August 2022 [7] - Gold prices have surged, reaching a record high of $3791 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of 44%, driven by geopolitical uncertainties, inflation concerns, and rate cut expectations [10][11] - The current market conditions are described as a "perfect storm" for gold prices, despite rising concerns about potential bubbles [11]

Group 1: US Macroeconomic Data - In August, US retail sales unexpectedly increased by 0.6% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.2% and matching the previous value [1] - Retail sales excluding automobiles rose by 0.7%, exceeding both the expected 0.4% and the previous value of 0.4% [1] - New housing starts in August fell significantly by 8.5% month-on-month, lower than the expected decline of 4.4% and the previous increase of 3.4%, totaling 1.307 million units [1] - Building permits in August also fell by 3.7%, not meeting the expected increase of 0.6% and worsening from the previous decline of 2.2%, with a total of 1.312 million permits issued [1] Group 2: Major Index Performance - For the week of September 15-19, the S&P Oil & Gas Index decreased by 0.11%, while the Nasdaq 100 Index increased by 2.22% and the S&P 500 Index rose by 1.22% [2] - Among the 11 sectors covered by the S&P 500, 5 sectors saw gains, with communication equipment leading at 3.37%, while real estate experienced a decline of 1.42% [2] Group 3: Investment Direction - Following the recent interest rate meeting, a new round of rate cuts is anticipated, with US stocks rising as a result [4] - The dot plot indicates that among 19 voting members, 9 expect one more rate cut this year, while another 9 anticipate two cuts, aligning with current market expectations [4] - The US economy may remain resilient, supported by strong AI sector investments and potential fiscal spending resuming in October, with traditional demand in manufacturing and real estate likely to respond quickly to monetary easing [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of precious metals continued to rise strongly on Monday and reached new highs. The decline of the US dollar index, the selling of US Treasury bonds, and the drop of Bitcoin reflect the erosion of the US dollar's credit and the security flaws of virtual currencies, increasing the demand for gold as a safe - haven asset. The Fed's monetary policy and the performance of the US stock market may increase the risk of a bubble in the US stock market or economic stagflation, further boosting the demand for gold as a hedge. The report suggests a long - term bullish outlook, and a short - term strong pattern for London gold and silver. It maintains the idea of buying on dips, but advises caution for existing long positions due to the approaching National Day holiday [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3,781.2 per ounce, up 2.03%; COMEX silver 2512 contract closed at $44.315 per ounce, up 3.17%. SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 846.5 yuan per gram, up 2.01%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 10,317 yuan per kilogram, up 3.81% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations have slightly cooled. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 10.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 89.8%. For December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 1.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 23.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 75.3%. In January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 13.8%, a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 52.7%, and a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 32.5%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 6.01 tons to 1,000.57 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 163.76 tons to 15,368.9 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 10.8 tons to 1,148.6 tons, and SGX silver inventory increased by 4.1 tons to 1,252.4 tons as of the week ending September 12 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week's data is relatively light. Key data to watch include the final value of the US Q2 GDP on Thursday night and the US August PCE data on Friday night. Regarding events, on Thursday at 20:20, 2025 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will speak; at 21:00, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will give a welcome speech at the 4th annual meeting on the international role of the US dollar. On Friday at 01:00, Fed Governor Barr will speak on bank stress tests, and at 22:00, Fed Governor Bowman will speak [4]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Tables - **Precious Metal Futures and Spot Prices**: SHFE gold main - continuous contract is at 855.44 yuan per gram, up 3%; SGX gold TD is at 839.93 yuan per gram, up 1.69%; CME gold main contract is at $3,781.2 per ounce, up 1.66%. SHFE silver main - continuous contract is at 10,349 yuan per kilogram, up 3.79%; SGX silver TD is at 10,275 yuan per kilogram, up 0.31%; CME silver main contract is at $44.315 per ounce, up 2.19%. SHFE - TD gold is at 6.57 yuan per gram, up 44.08%; SHFE - TD silver is at 74 yuan per kilogram, up 29.17%. CME gold - silver ratio is 85.3255, down 0.52% [6][7]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: SHFE gold inventory is 59,013 kilograms, up 2.76%; CME gold inventory is 1,234.2735 tons, up 0.56%; SHFE gold holdings are 260,256 lots, up 8.36%; SPDR gold holdings are 1,000.57 tons, up 0.6%. SHFE silver inventory is 1,148.624 tons, down 0.93%; CME silver inventory is 16,309.9981 tons, up 0.06%; SGX silver inventory is 1,252.41 tons, up 0.33%; SHFE silver holdings are 504,051 lots, up 16.15%; SLV silver holdings are 15,368.895541 tons, up 1.08% [18]. - **Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview**: The US dollar index is at 97.3263, down 0.33%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan is at 7.1178, up 0.34%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 46,381.54 points, up 0.14%; WTI crude oil spot is at $62.28 per barrel, down 0.64%; LmeS copper 03 is at $10,002 per ton, up 0.06%; the 10 - year US Treasury yield is 4.15%, up 0.24%; the 10 - year US real interest rate is 1.78%, up 1.71%; the 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread is 0.54%, down 5.26% [21].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 国债期货 | 日报 2025 年 9 月 23 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 国债期货维持低位震荡 核心观点 今日国债期货均震荡下跌。昨日盘后的国新会上，央行行长表示不涉及 短期政策，叠加 9 月 LPR 持平，短期降息预期消退。不过从中长期来看，目 前国内内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，海外美联储启动降息令人民币汇率 端压力大大减小，未来货币政策偏宽松的可能性较高。国债期货具有较强支 撑。不过短期内降息预期下降，国债期货缺乏上行动能。预计短期内国债期 货以低位震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告 中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报 酬。 专业研究·创造价 ...

Group 1 - The international gold price has reached a historical high of $3749.27 per ounce, while silver prices have also risen for the third consecutive trading day, nearing $44 per ounce, marking a 14-year high [1][2] - The recent surge in precious metal prices is primarily driven by rising expectations of a shift in major central banks' monetary policies, with investors anticipating a more accommodative monetary environment [2] - The significant increase in gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings indicates enhanced institutional allocation interest, with last Friday's single-day increase marking the highest in over three years [2] Group 2 - The silver market is performing strongly, with London spot silver prices hovering around $44 per ounce, the highest level since August 2011, and a year-to-date increase exceeding 40% [3] - In the domestic market, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's main silver contract price has surpassed 10,000 yuan per kilogram, reaching a nearly 13-year high, with a year-to-date increase of over 30% [3] - Silver prices are more elastic compared to gold, supported by active bullish options trading amid expectations of interest rate cuts, with the trading volume of the iShares Silver Trust options reaching a peak since April 2024 [3]

黄金昨天高开调整后，继续延续涨势，大涨超70美金，一度涨破了3700的关口，来到3760附近，再刷历 史，快跌调整，再战新高。 今天的走势 昨天黄金再一骑绝尘，破3700的关口。 一度大涨，到今天面临3760附近。 而且，下方再次回调延续。 跌破了3735的位置，继续看到3700的位置的支撑。 黄金连涨4个月后，到8月进入了连续4个月的横盘，而且收官涨破4个月高位。到本月，再次刷新历史新 高。多头再起，强势横强，上周洗盘后，今天再录得新高，上方延续，持续看向3800的关口，不猜顶。 同时，谨防大幅回调，看到3700的位置。 操作方面，黄金再突破大涨，继续看涨延续，关注3700和3735做多的机会。此外，黄金冲高快跌调整， 短期内看承压调整，关注3760和3800做空调整的机会。 昨天主要因素： 一方面，美联储降息落地，但影响力还在，市场闻声起舞，继续因为宽松狂欢，美股连刷历史新高。美 元再次走低，通胀高企，继续支撑黄金延续上涨。 另外一方面，美联储意外又放鹰了，虽然绑定统一阵营，但是分歧依然还在，一边鼓吹年内或2次降 息，一边又开始保守治疗，只降息1次，继续玩起了预期管理。不过带来的结果也很直接，美债收益率 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - On September 22, equity indices and CGB futures rose, while commodities showed mixed movements with energy & chemicals declining [12][15]. - Silver and gold prices are expected to rise, with silver potentially challenging the 2011 all - time high in Q1 - Q2 and gold maintaining an upward trend in Q4 [21][26]. - Poly - silicon remains in a policy - waiting plateau, with prices expected to fluctuate widely, and there may be a supply surplus in Q4 [35][39]. Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On September 22, equity indices and CGB futures rose. Commodities had mixed performance, with energy & chemicals weakening. Among commodity futures, the top three gainers were silver, gold, and SCFIS(Europe), and the top three decliners were poly - silicon, LPG, and ferrosilicon. Among financial futures, IM and IF of equity indices increased by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, and TL and T of CGB futures rose by 0.2% [12][13][14][15]. 1.2 Daily Raise - **Silver**: On September 22, it increased by 3.8% to 10317 yuan/kg. Soft - landing expectations amplify short - term volatility. With the restart of the interest - rate cut cycle and stable US fundamentals, silver prices are expected to rise and may challenge the 2011 high in Q1 - Q2. Attention should be paid to US economic data this week [20][21][22]. - **Gold**: On September 22, it increased by 2.0% to 846.5 yuan/gram. Prices may continue to fluctuate and gather momentum in the short term, and maintain an upward trend in Q4. Interest - rate cut expectations are the core bullish driver. The Fed's potential interest - rate cuts and the risk of its loss of independence may drive gold prices up. However, gold may face pressure if the trading shifts to "recovery", or gain new upside potential under certain negative scenarios [25][26][28]. 1.3 Daily Drop - **Poly - silicon**: On September 22, it decreased by 3.6% to 50990 yuan/ton. It is in a policy - waiting plateau, and prices depend on policy signals. The new energy - consumption standard may accelerate the clearance of outdated capacities. Supply may decline slightly in Q4, and demand for the photovoltaic terminal is expected to be weak. There was a slight surplus in Q3, and it may expand in Q4 [35][37][39]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On the evening of September 19, President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump, providing strategic guidance for China - US relations. China and the US are in communication regarding a leaders' meeting at APEC [43]. 2.2 Industry News - Pan Gongsheng said further communication on the 15th Five - Year Plan and future financial reform will be conducted after the central government's unified deployment. - CSRC's Wu Qing stated that foreign capital currently holds A - share market value of 3.4 trillion yuan, and 269 enterprises are listed overseas. - As of the end of August, medium - and long - term funds held about 21.4 trillion yuan of tradable A - share market value, a 32% increase from the end of the 13th Five - Year Plan [44][45].