金融期货早评 宏观：核心 CPI 增幅回升 【市场资讯】1）发改委郑栅洁：努力完成全年经济社会发展目标任务，下半年不断释放内 需潜力，进一步推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合。2）财政部长蓝佛安：把做强国内大循 环摆到更加突出的位置，持续发力、适时加力实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，全力支持稳 就业稳外贸。3）中国 8 月 CPI 同比转降 0.4%、核心 CPI 增幅回升至 0.9%，PPI 同比降幅收 窄至 2.9%。4）美国通胀意外下跌，8 月 PPI 环比-0.1%，四个月来首次转负，同比增速 2.6% 低于预期。PPI 公布后，特朗普：没有通胀，鲍威尔必须立即大幅降息。5）美联储理事库 克或将参与美联储下周决议投票，法官阻止特朗普罢免，美司法部迅速上诉。米兰出任美 联储理事的提名获得参议院委员会投票通过。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，国新办就《关于释放体育消费潜力进一步推进体育产业高质量发 展的意见》相关政策措施展开解读。我们判断，此举或标志着促进服务消费系列政策的启 动，后续预计将有更多政策逐步落地，需重点跟踪相关举措的实施进展。此类服务消费刺 激政策，将与"以旧换新"等商品消费提振措施形成协同效应，共同支撑社 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: September 11, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Xiang Weiyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Gold: After the adjustment of non - farm payroll data, the gold price dropped slightly during the previous day, but due to the continued slowdown of PPI and high expectations of interest rate cuts, the gold price fluctuated and closed higher. With the approaching of the September Fed meeting and high expectations of interest rate cuts, paying attention to today's CPI data, the gold price remains strong [4]. - Silver: With the continued slowdown of PPI and high expectations of interest rate cuts, risk appetite recovered, and the silver price fluctuated and closed higher. As the September meeting approaches and interest rate cut expectations are high, paying attention to the US CPI data today, the silver price follows the gold price and remains strong [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review - **Gold**: The US PPI in August declined more than expected, and the gold price fluctuated and closed higher. The three major US stock indexes rose and fell differently, and the main European stock indexes also showed mixed results at the close. The US Treasury yields fell collectively, with the 10 - year Treasury yield dropping 4.21 basis points to 4.047%. The US dollar index rose 0.08% to 97.85, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1226. COMEX gold futures closed down 0.05% at $3680.4 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: The US PPI in August declined more than expected, and the silver price fluctuated at a high level. The three major US stock indexes rose and fell differently, and the main European stock indexes also showed mixed results at the close. The US Treasury yields fell collectively, with the 10 - year Treasury yield dropping 4.21 basis points to 4.047%. The US dollar index rose 0.08% to 97.85, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1226. COMEX silver futures closed up 0.75% at $41.65 per ounce [6]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.92, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures warrants increased by 1536 kilograms to 45951 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased [5]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 25, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants increased by 1831 kilograms to 1252170 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position is long, and the main long position decreased [6]. 3. Today's Focus - Time TBD: South Korean President Lee Jae - myung holds a press conference on his 100th day in office; the 7th China Financial Technology Forum is held; the 2025 China International Fair for Trade in Services is held at Shougang Park; the 2025 E - commerce Conference is held; the 17th meeting of the 14th National People's Congress Standing Committee is held in Beijing from September 8 - 12; Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Adrian Orr gives a speech [15]. - 20:15: The European Central Bank releases its interest rate decision [15]. - 20:30: US CPI for August and the number of initial jobless claims for the week of September 6 are released [15]. - 20:45: ECB President Christine Lagarde holds a monetary policy press conference [15]. - 23:10: Bank of England Executive Director Sasha Mills speaks at the European Settlement System Conference [15]. - Next Day 00:00: US household net worth in the second quarter is released [15]. - Next Day 02:00: US government budget for August is released [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold Logic**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, and the gold price is difficult to fall. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government will continue, and the sentiment for the gold price is high, still prone to rise and difficult to fall [10]. - **Silver Logic**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, and the silver price still mainly follows the gold price. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on the silver price itself, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase in the silver price [13]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: On September 10, 2025, the long position volume was 251,787, a decrease of 1,379 or 0.54% compared with September 9; the short position volume was 82,397, an increase of 1,398 or 1.73%; the net position was 169,390, a decrease of 2,777 or 1.61% [31]. - **Silver**: On September 10, 2025, the long position volume was 366,328, an increase of 2,030 or 0.56% compared with September 9; the short position volume was 247,265, a decrease of 448 or 0.18%; the net position was 119,063, an increase of 2,478 or 2.13% [32].

Core Insights - The non-ferrous metal sector has seen a significant increase of 67.57% since the beginning of 2025, with a 10.16% rise in Q2 2025, ranking it 8th among sectors [1][2] - In H1 2025, the non-ferrous metal sector achieved a 27.65% increase, ranking it 1st among sectors [2] Market Performance - The precious metals segment performed the best in H1 2025, with gold prices increasing by 39.8% year-on-year and the net profit attributable to the parent company rising by 64.7% [2] - In Q2 2025, the net profit attributable to the parent company for precious metals reached 5.785 billion yuan, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 75.62% and 48.44% respectively [2] - Industrial metals saw price increases for aluminum, copper, and zinc at 2.27%, 4.02%, and 4.85% year-on-year, with net profits changing by +41.0%, -0.4%, and +25.7% respectively [2] - Energy metals experienced a decline in battery-grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices by 32.0% and 27.7% year-on-year, while cobalt sulfate and cobalt tetroxide prices increased by 26.0% and 26.7% [2] - The lithium segment's net profit attributable to the parent company surged by 409% year-on-year, while the cobalt segment's net profit increased by 33% [2] Investment Recommendations - The company is optimistic about opportunities in copper, aluminum, and precious metals due to ongoing supply constraints and resilient domestic demand [3] - Key companies to focus on include Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum among others [3] - In the energy metals sector, the lithium industry is expected to undergo further clearing, with supply risks emerging from regulatory issues in key mining regions [3] - The cobalt market is anticipated to see price increases due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo [3] - Precious metals are expected to benefit from anticipated interest rate cuts, with a focus on companies like Western Gold and Shandong Gold [4]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is expected to overcome inflation risks and weak employment prospects, ending the year with upward momentum, driven by anticipated interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve by year-end [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Two-thirds of survey respondents believe the S&P 500 index will continue to rise through 2025, largely due to signals of further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1] - A significant drop in non-farm payroll data has led traders to bet on three interest rate cuts this year, starting from September 17 [1] - Less than one-fifth of respondents view economic data recovery as a catalyst for stock market gains, indicating prevailing economic concerns [2] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Analysts warn that if the Federal Reserve cuts rates as expected, it may dampen investor enthusiasm, similar to last year's scenario where a 50 basis point cut led to a decline in the S&P 500 [2] - The current economic environment is characterized by mild stagflation, with inflation expected to rise slightly while unemployment worsens [4] - Despite a stagnant job market and challenges in the real estate sector, manufacturing and service sectors show signs of improvement, contributing to a favorable environment for the stock market [4] Group 3: Asset Performance Expectations - Respondents anticipate that stocks will provide higher risk-adjusted returns compared to bonds in the coming month [6] - There is a divergence among respondents regarding the future movement of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, but most expect the yield curve to steepen due to ongoing inflation and fiscal concerns [6]

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Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold prices has significantly boosted the performance of the gold sector, leading to a "gold rush" in both the stock and financial product markets [1][2]. Gold Price Performance - As of September 10, COMEX gold prices have increased by 38.73% year-to-date, with a notable rise of 9.08% in the last 15 trading days [1][2]. - Gold prices started the year at $2,625 per ounce and reached a historical high of over $3,700 per ounce [1]. Stock Market Performance - The SSH gold stock index has seen a year-to-date increase of over 73.18%, with a 23.09% rise from August 20 to September 11 [2]. - Individual stocks in the gold sector have performed exceptionally well, with 12 stocks doubling in price and companies like WanGuo Gold Group and China National Gold International seeing increases of over 216% [2]. ETF Performance - Gold ETFs have experienced significant growth, with the total scale of 20 gold ETFs increasing by nearly 1.3 times from 726.07 billion to 1,657.92 billion [3]. - Stock-type gold ETFs have outperformed, with an average increase of 74.89% year-to-date, while commodity-type gold ETFs have faced net outflows totaling over 10.5 billion [3]. Investor Sentiment - There is a divide among investors regarding the sustainability of the current gold price surge, with some expressing uncertainty about future trends [4]. - Analysts suggest that the current macroeconomic environment, including concerns over U.S. Federal Reserve independence and inflation, is driving demand for gold [5]. Future Outlook - Institutions generally expect a "short-term fluctuation, long-term bullish" trend for gold prices, with a continued upward trajectory anticipated [6]. - Predictions for gold prices have been adjusted upwards, with targets set at $3,600 and $3,700 per ounce for March and June 2026, respectively [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The report aims to objectively reflect the research views of futures companies and securities companies on various commodity varieties, track hot - spot varieties, analyze market investment sentiment, and summarize investment driving logic. It is based on the publicly - released research reports of institutions in the current week, and the closing price data is from last Friday, with the weekly change calculated as the change in the closing price compared to the previous Friday [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Commodities**: From September 1st to September 5th, 2025, among commodities, polysilicon had the highest weekly increase of 14.49%, followed by silver (4.54%), gold (3.88%), etc. Aluminum decreased by 0.22%, crude oil by 0.66%, and PTA by 2.34% [2]. - **Stocks**: A - shares (including CSI 300, SSE 50, and CSI 500) generally declined, while overseas stock markets such as the Hang Seng Index, NASDAQ Index, and Nikkei 225 rose, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 1.36% and the NASDAQ Index by 1.14% [2]. - **Bonds**: The yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year Chinese treasury bonds decreased, with the 2 - year yield down 2.01bp, the 5 - year down 5.5bp, and the 10 - year down 5.2bp [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The euro - US dollar exchange rate increased by 0.28%, the US dollar intermediate price by 0.05%, and the US dollar index decreased by 0.11% [2]. 3.2 Commodity Views - **Macro - financial Sector** - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 6 were neutral. Bullish factors included the continuation of domestic anti - involution policies, the increase in the number of ETF shares tracking the CSI 1000, etc. Bearish factors included the contraction of A - share trading volume and potential regulatory actions [4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 were bullish, 3 were bearish, and 4 were neutral. Bullish factors were the loose domestic monetary environment and the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. Bearish factors were the high risk appetite and the expectation of domestic incremental policies [4]. - **Energy Sector** - **Crude Oil**: Among 8 institutions' views, 1 was bullish, 3 were bearish, and 4 were neutral. Bullish factors included poor non - farm data and the lower - than - expected OPEC+ production increase. Bearish factors were the planned OPEC+ production increase and concerns about demand recession [5]. - **Agricultural Products Sector** - **Palm Oil**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 were neutral. Bullish factors were strong export demand and potential zero - tariff treatment for the US. Bearish factors were the increase in Malaysian palm oil production and domestic inventory accumulation [5]. - **Non - ferrous Sector** - **Aluminum**: Among 7 institutions' views, 4 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 3 were neutral. Bullish factors were the Fed rate - cut expectation, supply disruptions in Guinea's bauxite, and the improvement in downstream开工率. Bearish factors were the continuous inventory accumulation and the increase in electrolytic aluminum production capacity [6]. - **Chemical Sector** - **Glass**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 was bullish, 1 was bearish, and 5 were neutral. Bullish factors were the improvement in the spot market atmosphere and the expected seasonal improvement in the Q4 real - estate market. Bearish factors were the stable supply and the high premium of the 01 contract [6]. - **Precious Metals** - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 6 were bullish, 0 were bearish, and 1 was neutral. Bullish factors were the strong expectation of a 50BP Fed rate cut in September and the increase in global fiscal concerns. Bearish factors were the short - term profit - taking pressure and the risk of the Fed rate cut not meeting expectations [7]. - **Black Metals** - **Coking Coal**: Among 8 institutions' views, 2 were bullish, 2 were bearish, and 4 were neutral. Bullish factors were the decrease in coking coal inventory and the improvement in coking enterprise production profits. Bearish factors were the high - level Mongolian coal imports and the weak demand in infrastructure and real estate [7].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content Group 2: Core Views - The Shanghai nickel futures market continues to fluctuate, with fundamental support still present. Nickel ore production and shipping in the Philippines are not significantly affected by rainfall, and domestic arrival inventories remain high. The new energy sector remains supportive, with tight supply and expected continued strength. Ferronickel prices are also strong, and stainless steel maintains a volatile trend. The report suggests paying attention to the impact of the US dollar index, interest - rate cut expectations, and increased export difficulties [4][5] - There are both positive and negative factors in the nickel and stainless - steel markets. Positive factors include the potential revision of the HPM formula in Indonesia, shortening of the nickel ore quota license period, increasing September interest - rate cut expectations, and continuous de - stocking of stainless steel. Negative factors involve high pure nickel inventories, rising seasonal nickel ore inventories, Sino - US tariff disturbances, uncertainties in EU stainless - steel import tariffs, and the implementation of anti - dumping duties on Chinese stainless - steel thick plates by South Korea [6] Group 3: Price and Volatility Forecasts Nickel - The predicted price range for Shanghai nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2] Stainless Steel - The predicted price range for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.51% and a historical percentile of 0.8% [2] Group 4: Risk Management Strategies Nickel Inventory Management - To hedge against potential price declines and inventory devaluation, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [2] Procurement Management - To lock in production costs in case of rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the procurement plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) according to the procurement plan, and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) according to the procurement plan [2] Stainless Steel Inventory Management - To hedge against potential price declines and inventory devaluation, sell stainless - steel futures (SS main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [3] Procurement Management - To lock in production costs in case of rising raw material prices, buy stainless - steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the procurement plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) according to the procurement plan, and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) according to the procurement plan [3] Group 5: Market Data Nickel - The latest price of Shanghai nickel main - continuous contract is 120,850 yuan/ton, with a 0% month - on - month change; Shanghai nickel continuous - first contract is 120,700 yuan/ton, down 1.18% month - on - month; Shanghai nickel continuous - second contract is 120,880 yuan/ton, down 1.12% month - on - month; Shanghai nickel continuous - third contract is 121,110 yuan/ton, down 1.12% month - on - month; LME nickel 3M is 15,105 US dollars/ton, down 1.12% month - on - month. Trading volume is 75,006 lots, down 25.20% month - on - month; open interest is 81,612 lots, up 0.96% month - on - month; warehouse receipts are 22,304 tons, down 1.31% month - on - month; the basis of the main contract is - 710 yuan/ton, down 52.0% month - on - month [7] Stainless Steel - The latest price of stainless - steel main - continuous contract is 12,915 yuan/ton, with a 0% month - on - month change; stainless - steel continuous - first contract is 12,860 yuan/ton, up 0.04% month - on - month; stainless - steel continuous - second contract is 12,950 yuan/ton, up 0.19% month - on - month; stainless - steel continuous - third contract is 12,955 yuan/ton, down 0.31% month - on - month. Trading volume is 115,463 lots, up 5.43% month - on - month; open interest is 123,168 lots, down 0.01% month - on - month; warehouse receipts are 98,288 tons, down 0.25% month - on - month; the basis of the main contract is 620 yuan/ton, down 13.29% month - on - month [9] Group 6: Industry Inventory - Domestic social nickel inventory is 39,930 tons, an increase of 460 tons compared to the previous period; LME nickel inventory is 221,094 tons, an increase of 3,024 tons; stainless - steel social inventory is 918.7 tons, a decrease of 10.1 tons; ferronickel inventory is 29,266.5 tons, a decrease of 3,844.5 tons [10][11]

Macroeconomic Overview - In August 2025, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 75,000, with the previous month's figure revised up to 79,000 [1] - The labor force participation rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 62.3%, while the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.3% [1] - Hourly wage growth slowed to 3.7% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [1] - The U.S. manufacturing and services sectors continue to show divergent trends, with manufacturing contracting and services expanding [1] - The ISM manufacturing index for August recorded 48.7, below the expected 49, while the ISM non-manufacturing index was at 52, exceeding both expectations and the previous value [1] - The ADP employment data for August showed a significant decline, with only 54,000 jobs added, falling short of the expected 68,000 and the previous 104,000 [1] Index Performance - For the week of September 1-5, the S&P Oil & Gas Index fell by 2.51%, while the Nasdaq 100 Index rose by 1.01% and the S&P 500 Index increased by 0.33% [2][3] - Among the 11 sectors covered by the S&P 500, five sectors saw gains, with communication equipment leading at 5.07%, while energy was the worst performer, declining by 3.52% [2][3] Investment Direction - The disappointing non-farm payroll data has led to increased expectations for interest rate cuts, resulting in a surge in gold prices and volatility in U.S. equities [4] - Market expectations for rate cuts have significantly risen, with projections indicating a potential cut starting in September [4] - The upcoming U.S. PPI and CPI data will be closely monitored as inflationary pressures remain concentrated in the fourth quarter [4] - The Bosera S&P 500 ETF (513500) is highlighted as a cost-effective investment tool for domestic investors to capture U.S. equity growth [4] - The S&P 500 Index is recognized as a benchmark for U.S. equities, covering over 500 representative companies across 11 sectors, accounting for approximately 80% of the total market capitalization [4] Nasdaq 100 ETF - The Bosera Nasdaq 100 ETF (513390) tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index, with a significant allocation of 57.87% in the information technology sector [5] - The index includes high-quality technology companies, providing exposure to various sectors such as consumer services, consumer goods, and healthcare [5]

Price Stability in Domestic Gold Market - Domestic gold prices remain stable, with slight declines observed in some stores. For instance, Chow Sang Sang's gold price decreased by 1 yuan per gram, now priced at 1073 yuan per gram, which is among the highest in the market [1] - Shanghai China Gold maintains the lowest price at 999 yuan per gram, with the price difference between the highest and lowest stores narrowing to 74 yuan [1] Gold Price Overview - The latest gold prices from various brands are as follows: - Lao Miao Gold: 1071 yuan per gram (down 2) - Chow Tai Fook: 1073 yuan per gram (no change) - Zhou Liufu: 1038 yuan per gram (no change) [1][3] - Platinum prices have seen a decline, with Chow Tai Fook's platinum jewelry dropping by 7 yuan per gram to 554 yuan per gram [4] Gold Recycling Prices - Today's gold recycling prices show a slight decrease of 1.7 yuan per gram. The recycling prices from different brands are as follows: - Cai Bai Gold: 824.30 yuan per gram - Chow Sang Sang: 816.60 yuan per gram - Zhou Dafu: 822.90 yuan per gram - Lao Fengxiang: 831.80 yuan per gram [4] International Gold Market Dynamics - The international gold market experienced fluctuations, with spot gold reaching a historical high of 3673.55 USD per ounce before closing at 3625.04 USD per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.30% [7] - Recent geopolitical tensions, including an Israeli airstrike in Qatar, have heightened market risk aversion, contributing to gold price increases. However, the situation is deemed manageable, leading to a reduction in risk aversion [7] - The significant downward revision of U.S. non-farm employment data has raised expectations for interest rate cuts, further stimulating gold prices [7]