| 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 棉花 | 周一，ICE 美棉上涨 0.05%，报收 66.64 美分/磅，CF509 上涨 2.44%，报收 13240 保留对这些商品加征 10%的关税，另外还有 2 月和 3 月对美国部分商品加征的关 | | | | 元/吨，主力合约持仓环比增加 8708 手至 58.28 万手，新疆地区棉花到厂价为 14085 | | | | 元/吨，较前一日上涨 174 元/吨，中国棉花价格指数 3128B 级为 14187 元/吨，较 | | | | 前一日上涨 65 元/吨。昨日中美公布日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明，美国将 4 月 2 日以 | | | | 来对中国加征的关税取消 91%，24%的关税在初始的 90 天内暂停实施，仅保留 10%。 | | | | 仅考虑 2 月以来情况，目前美国对中国仍有 2 月和 3 月各加征 10%的关税税率。 | 震荡上 | | | 中国对美国加征的关税也取消 91%，24%的关税在初始的 90 天内暂停实施，同时 | | | | | 行 | | | 税保留。综上，中美关税谈判已经取得突破性进展，成果超 ...

Group 1 - The market experienced volatility today, with sectors such as military, computer, securities, new energy, and chips all retreating, leading to declines in the Shenzhen Composite Index and the ChiNext Index [1] - As of May 12, the total scale of bond ETFs has surpassed 250 billion yuan, indicating an influx of incremental capital into the bond market [1] - Huatai Futures suggests that short-term government bond futures will remain supported due to a loose funding environment and expectations of policy easing, although long-term interest rates are at low levels with limited room for further decline [1] Group 2 - Zheshang International forecasts that the impact of fundamentals on the bond market will gradually weaken, and the relatively loose funding environment in May may provide better investment opportunities for short-term instruments [1] - Investors are encouraged to maintain a certain duration position in their portfolios to capture potential rapid gains following any cuts in reserve requirements or interest rates [1] - Due to the low default risk associated with government bonds, the historical returns of government bond ETFs are relatively stable and reliable, with specific ETFs like the 10-Year Government Bond ETF (511260) and the Government Bond ETF (511010) recommended for interested investors [1]

金十数据5月13日讯，招商宏观研报称，中美关税谈判取得积极成果，叠加5月7日推出的支持稳市场稳 预期的一揽子金融政策，预计国内市场风险偏好将持续回暖，人民币汇率继续保持在7.10-7.3区间。贝 森特表示7月4日左右将拿出"减税法案2.0"，中美关税谈判取得积极成果叠加积极的财政态度或令美 股、美元继续受到一定提振。 招商宏观：预计人民币汇率继续保持在7.10-7.3区间 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the US-China tariff negotiations have exceeded expectations, indicating a potential recovery in trade relations and a favorable environment for market performance in May 2025 [3][5]. - The focus is on growth themes and sectors that are currently underweighted by funds, with particular attention to the potential rebound in the supply chains related to Apple, real estate, and consumer sectors [5]. Summary by Sections Tariff Adjustments - The US plans to modify tariffs on Chinese goods, suspending 24% tariffs for the first 90 days while retaining a 10% tariff. Additionally, certain tariffs imposed on US goods will be canceled [3][5]. - China will reciprocate by suspending similar tariffs on US goods, indicating a potential thaw in the trade conflict [5]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a "red May," suggesting that external easing expectations are becoming a reality, supported by domestic policies aimed at stabilizing the capital market [5]. - The focus is on growth catalysts and sectors that are currently underrepresented in fund allocations, with a specific emphasis on the potential for rebounds in previously oversold sectors [5]. Sector Focus - Short-term opportunities are identified in the supply chains related to Apple and real estate, which may experience a rebound due to the favorable negotiation outcomes [5]. - Mid-term attention is directed towards manufacturing exports, high-end consumer goods, and cultural services, indicating a strategic shift towards international markets [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Container Shipping**: The outcome of the China-US tariff negotiation exceeded market expectations, and the subsequent market is expected to rebound. The spot freight rate bottom is gradually emerging, and the short - term market is expected to continue to rebound. However, the long - term outlook is still affected by the trade war [4][5][6]. - **Dry Bulk Shipping**: The overall demand in the international dry bulk shipping market was weak last week, and freight rates were under pressure. The substantial progress in the China - US economic and trade talks may have a positive impact on market sentiment and support the freight rate market [17][18]. - **Oil Shipping**: The BDTI is maintaining a volatile trend. OPEC+ increasing production may increase the global seaborne demand for crude oil. The concentrated outflow of goods in late April and early May supported the VLCC market, and the impact of the goods release rhythm on freight rates needs further attention [22]. 3. Summary by Directory Container Shipping - **Futures Market**: On May 12, 2025, all container shipping futures contracts except EC2604 reached the daily limit. For example, EC2506 closed at 1466.2 points, up 17.31% [2]. - **Price Difference Structure**: The price differences between different contracts showed various changes, such as EC06 - EC08 at - 328, down 48.8 [2]. - **Container Freight Rates**: SCFIS European Line was at 1302.62 points, down 5.54% week - on - week and 48.15% year - on - year; SCFIS US West Line was at 1455.31 points, up 10.19% week - on - week and down 41.97% year - on - year [2]. - **Fuel Costs**: WTI crude oil near - month was at $60.63 per barrel, up 1.05% week - on - week and down 23.33% year - on - year; Brent crude oil near - month was at $63.42 per barrel, up 1.10% week - on - week and down 24.1% year - on - year [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: For the short - term, adopt a long - at - dips strategy for the near - month contracts 06 and 08. Hold the 8 - 10 and 6 - 10 positive spreads and the 10 - 12 negative spread [6][7]. Dry Bulk Shipping - **Freight Rate Index**: On May 9, the BDI decreased by 1.29% to 1299 points, the BCI decreased by 2.45% to 1709 points, the BPI decreased by 0.73% to 1353 points, and the BSI increased by 0.10% to 969 points [15][16]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: On May 9, the freight rate of the Brazilian Tubarao - Qingdao iron ore route (BCI - C3) was $18.22 per ton, down 1.03% week - on - week; the freight rate of the Western Australia - Qingdao route (BCI - C5) was $7.49 per ton, down 2.60% week - on - week [17]. - **Industry News**: The substantial progress in the China - US economic and trade talks may support the market. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased, and the Panama Canal will conduct maintenance work, affecting the transportation capacity of Panamax ships [18][19]. Oil Shipping - **Freight Rate Index**: On May 9, the BDTI was at 995, down 1% week - on - week and 13.48% year - on - year; the BCTI was at 573, up 0.35% week - on - week and down 43.55% year - on - year [20][22]. - **Average Earnings**: The average earnings of VLCCs were $44031 per day, down 13% week - on - week and 20.86% year - on - year; the average earnings of Suezmax tankers were $46548 per day, down 14.44% week - on - week and 9.39% year - on - year [20]. - **Industry News**: Trump's visit to the Middle East may not achieve the goal of normalizing Saudi - Israeli relations. Goldman Sachs expects non - US shale oil supply to increase, and Saudi Aramco's Q1 net income decreased [23][24]. Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including SCFIS and SCFI index charts, container shipping freight rate charts, dry bulk shipping index charts, oil shipping index charts, and tanker earnings charts, which visually display the historical trends of relevant data [28][30][38].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - On May 12, treasury bond futures weakened collectively, with TS, TF, T, and TL main contracts falling by 0.08%, 0.20%, 0.46%, and 1.31% respectively. The central bank made a net investment, and the weighted average DR007 rate remained around 1.57%, indicating a relatively loose capital market. Domestically, economic data showed strong performance due to pre - emptive policy efforts to boost domestic demand, with retail sales, fixed - asset investment, and industrial growth slightly exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate improving month - on - month. Financial data also slightly exceeded expectations, but the private sector's financing willingness still needed to be boosted. In terms of prices, core inflation improved, but industrial price data was still weak due to the drag of international commodities. The expected escalation of tariff frictions led to an unexpected rebound in exports. Overseas, the US PMI in April declined slightly, and non - farm payroll growth, CPI, PPI, and retail sales data all fell short of expectations. Strategically, recent Sino - US tariff negotiations achieved phased results, and with the positive effects of interest rate and reserve requirement ratio cuts exhausted, market risk - aversion sentiment declined significantly, causing the bond market to weaken. Considering that short - term bond futures have been significantly weaker than long - term ones recently, attention should be paid to the risk of long - term bond price corrections due to short - term interest rate spread adjustments. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Prices and Volumes**: On May 12, the closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 108.530 (-0.46%), 105.890 (-0.2%), 102.276 (-0.08%), and 118.740 (-1.31%) respectively, and their trading volumes increased by 25984, 11884, 12096, and 27236 respectively. [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads changed, such as the TL2509 - 2506 spread decreased by 0.06 to 0.49, while the T2509 - 2506 spread increased by 0.04 to 0.19. [2] - **Futures Positions**: The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL all decreased, and the net short positions of the top 20 in each contract also decreased to varying degrees. [2] 3.2 Bond Market Data - **CTD Bond Net Prices**: The net prices of several CTD bonds decreased, such as 240025.IB (6y) dropping by 0.3405 to 99.0631. [2] - **Active Bond Yields**: The yields of active bonds with different maturities decreased, with the 1 - year yield dropping by 1.00bp to 1.4000%. [2] 3.3 Interest Rate Data - **Short - term Interest Rates**: Most short - term interest rates decreased, such as the overnight silver - pledged repo rate dropping by 4.20bp to 1.4080%. The LPR rates remained unchanged. [2] 3.4 Open Market Operations - On May 12, the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with an issue size of 430 billion yuan, a maturity size of 0, and an interest rate of 1.5% for 7 - day operations. [2] 3.5 Industry News - On May 12, the Ministry of Commerce released a joint statement on Sino - US economic and trade talks in Geneva. Compared with the April 7 tariff measures, the US adjusted to retain a 10% basic tariff + 20% fentanyl tariff, and postponed the rest for 90 days. China also retained a 10% tariff and postponed the rest. - The central bank released the First - Quarter 2025 China Monetary Policy Implementation Report, including measures such as increasing the volume of outright reverse repurchase operations, temporarily suspending treasury bond trading operations, and continuing to use the swap facilities among securities, funds, and insurance companies. [2] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - On May 13 at 20:30, the US April unadjusted CPI annual rate will be released. - On May 14 at 20:30, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 10 (in ten thousand people) and the US April retail sales month - on - month rate will be released. [3]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - According to the USDA's April 2024/25 global cotton supply - demand forecast, global cotton production is expected to be 26.321 million tons, consumption is down 114,000 tons, imports and exports are slightly down, and ending stocks are up 115,000 tons. The overall sowing progress of cotton in Xinjiang as of May 5, 2025, is about 99.9%, and the emergence rate is 86.2% [3]. - This week, the futures price of pure - cotton yarn strengthened following Zhengzhou cotton, and the yarn price rose in a restorative manner. After the holiday, the market was stable overall. Affected by the off - season, market transactions slowed down, and new orders decreased. Most small and medium - sized textile enterprises mainly had short, scattered, and low - profit orders, while large and medium - sized enterprises maintained high operating rates, but some had moderately reduced production [3]. - The industrial inventory of cotton in cotton textile enterprises is decreasing. As of the end of March, the commercial inventory of cotton was 4.8396 million tons, and the industrial inventory of cotton in textile enterprises was 959,300 tons. The total industrial and commercial inventory is still at a high level [3]. - As of May 9, 2025, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 11,282 (4.85 million tons), with 853 valid forecasts (370,000 tons), and the total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 5.22 million tons, down from 5.31 million tons on April 30 [3]. - The basis of Class 31 double - 28 Xinjiang new cotton against the May contract is 800 - 850 yuan/ton, and that of double - 29 cotton is 900 - 950 yuan/ton [3]. - Xinjiang's ginneries this season purchase cotton according to the futures price. After the sharp decline of cotton futures after the National Day, the purchase price of seed cotton decreased, and the overall average cost converted to the official standard is 14,700 - 14,800 yuan [3]. - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5%. Domestically, on May 7, the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates and introduced a package of financial policies. As of May 10, the China - US economic and trade high - level talks started in Geneva, but no more information was released about the tariff negotiations [3]. - Given the global trade contraction, the rebound of cotton prices is expected to have limited amplitude and sustainability. The September contract faces significant hedging pressure at 13,200 - 13,400 yuan. The strategy is to short on rallies, mainly using the idea of short - term shorting and covering at lows [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Global Supply and Demand - The USDA estimates that the world will continue to accumulate cotton stocks in the 2024/25 season. Global ending stocks are expected to be 17.17 million tons, with an inventory - to - use ratio of 67.97%, up 3.10 percentage points year - on - year [6]. - In April, the USDA increased China's cotton production forecast for the 2024/25 season to 6.967 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.99%. Global production is expected to be 26.321 million tons, a 7.00% increase [9]. - The new - season global cotton market is still expected to have a supply surplus [11]. US Exports - As of April 24, 2025, the US had cumulatively signed net export contracts for 2.58 million tons of 2024/25 cotton, reaching 108.71% of the annual expected export volume, and had shipped 1.827 million tons, with a shipment rate of 70.84% [17]. Overseas and Domestic Conditions - Overseas cotton mill operating rates are relatively stable [22]. - In China, the downstream operating rate has slightly rebounded, with the weaving factory operating rate steadily increasing. However, downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory on a just - in - time basis, and the initiative to replenish inventory is insufficient. The raw material inventory of weaving factories has decreased, while the finished - product inventory has continued to accumulate [25][31][34]. - The immediate profit of Chinese spinning mills has slightly rebounded as the futures price declined. The industrial and commercial cotton inventories in China are at their highest levels in recent years, and the total amount of new cotton warehouse receipts is still high [36][39][42].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The Sino-US tariff negotiations have achieved initial results, and the inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad tends to decline. However, as the traditional off-season of consumption approaches, copper prices may be strong first and then weak. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the moment, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of copper prices in different markets [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On May 9, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 77,450 yuan, up 120 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 111,450 lots, down 5,268 lots; the open interest was 181,319 lots, up 1,627 lots; the inventory was 19,165 tons, down 375 tons. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,205 yuan, down 230 yuan. The Shanghai copper basis and various spot premiums and discounts, as well as the spreads between near - and far - month contracts, showed different degrees of change [2]. - **London Copper**: On May 9, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures settlement price (electronic trading) was 9,445.5 US dollars, up 14 US dollars. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased, and the spreads of different LME copper futures contracts also changed [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On May 9, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.654 US dollars, up 0.03 US dollars, and the total inventory was 160,250 tons, up 3,627 tons [2]. Company News - **Jinchengxin**: It plans to acquire a 50% stake in Colombia's OM Company for 100 million US dollars and gain control. It will invest 230 million US dollars in the construction of the Alacran copper - gold - silver mine project, with an estimated investment of 420.4 million US dollars, a construction period of 2 years, and an expected mine life of 12 years. The company will contribute about 202.22 million US dollars according to the equity ratio and lead the subsequent development and construction of the mine, with an average annual ore mining volume of about 6.1 million tons, equivalent to 25,000 tons of copper, 1.4 tons of gold, and 16 tons of silver [2]. - **Codelco and Escondida Mine**: In March, Codelco's copper production increased by 14.8% year - on - year to 123,200 tons, and the Escondida mine under BHP Billiton's smelting had a 18.9% year - on - year increase in copper production to 120,600 tons [2]. Important Information - **Macro - economic**: The US Senate and House of Representatives reached an agreement on the budget resolution on April 10, including tax cuts of 5.5 trillion US dollars in the next ten years, an increase in the debt ceiling of 5 trillion US dollars, and a reduction in government spending of 4 billion US dollars. The Trump administration proposed to cut the federal fiscal budget by 163 billion US dollars in 2026. The US ISM manufacturing PMI and employment data in April were not bad, delaying the expected time of the Fed's interest rate cut to July, September, or December [2]. - **Upstream**: Some copper mines in Peru, Poland, Kazakhstan, etc. have production changes such as resumption or suspension. Some copper smelters at home and abroad have production adjustments due to various reasons, such as accidents, overhauls, and new capacity launches. The domestic copper concentrate production (import) volume, electrolytic copper production (import) volume, and waste copper production (import) volume may change in May. The inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded area, social inventory, and LME inventory decreased, while the COMEX inventory increased [2]. - **Downstream**: The new orders and long - order executions of refined copper rod enterprises decreased significantly, resulting in a decline in the capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods and an increase in that of recycled copper rods. The capacity utilization rate, production volume, import volume, and export volume of domestic copper product enterprises may decline in May, with different performances in different sub - industries [2]. 4. Trading Strategy Investors are advised to wait and see for the moment, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of copper prices in different markets: 70,000/73,000 - 75,000 yuan for Shanghai copper, 8,700 - 8,900 US dollars for London copper, 4.3 - 4.58 US dollars for COMEX copper on the support side, and 78,500 - 80,000 yuan for Shanghai copper, 9,600 - 9,800 US dollars for London copper, 4.85/5.0 - 5.2 US dollars for COMEX copper on the resistance side [3].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2] Core Views - The report highlights that tungsten prices continue to rise due to a tightening supply-demand dynamic, with a significant reduction in mining quotas leading to a supply contraction of 4,000 tons, a decrease of 6.45% compared to the previous year [7] - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate around $9,300, influenced by trade pricing reversals and macroeconomic factors, with a notable increase in copper inventory at COMEX [6] - Aluminum prices have shown a downward trend due to weak expectations, although domestic demand remains strong with rapid inventory depletion [6] - Rare earth prices have surged due to tight supply and increased overseas prices, with domestic procurement activity remaining moderate [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The closing index for the industry is at 4695.15, with a weekly high of 5020.22 and a low of 3700.9 [2] Price Movements - Basic metals: LME copper decreased by 0.89%, aluminum by 0.39%, zinc increased by 1.14%, lead by 3.55%, and tin decreased by 0.65% [19] - Precious metals: COMEX gold decreased by 3.27%, silver by 1.66%, while NYMEX palladium increased by 0.25% and platinum decreased by 0.85% [19] Inventory Changes - Global visible inventory changes: copper decreased by 3,989 tons, aluminum by 12,070 tons, zinc by 2,949 tons, lead by 9,115 tons, tin by 54 tons, and nickel by 3,111 tons [26]

证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 发布时间：2025-05-12 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 4695.15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 5020.22 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3700.9 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-05 2024-07 2024-10 2024-12 2025-02 2025-05 -24% -20% -16% -12% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 有色金属行业报告 （2025.05.05-2025.05.10） 钨价持续上涨，供紧需强趋势明显 l 投资要点 贵金属：黄金宽幅震荡，等待中美关税谈判落地。本周金银呈现 出震荡行情，且波动较大，沪金主力虽有降波，但波动率依然处于历 史高位。等待中美关税谈判落地以及波动率调整到位后择机重新超配 黄金以及黄金股。未来，特朗普政府关税阴云仍在，贸易逆差缩减的 本质是美债买盘的衰减，美国长债利率上行概率加大，黄金的配置价 值凸显。具体来说，只要长端美债名义利率位于 4%以上，黄金上涨趋 ...