关税不确定性

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贵金属数据日报-20250521
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-05-21 03:35
兄追究法律责任。 期市有风险,入市需谨慎 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 世界500强投资企业 国贸期货有限公司 成为一流的衍生品综合服务商 入 册 市 市 官 方 网 站 假 有 客 服 热线 译 风 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 tiff Pco 贵金属数据日报 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/5/21 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX更金 | COMEX日银 | AU2508 | AG2508 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/登司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点 ...
澳洲联储降息25个基点,认为关税存在不确定性
news flash· 2025-05-20 04:43
Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has lowered the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 3.85% due to declining inflation and ongoing economic uncertainties [1] Economic Outlook - Inflation has significantly decreased since peaking in 2022, as higher interest rates have aimed to balance total demand and supply [1] - The global economic outlook remains uncertain, with increased volatility in financial markets over the past three months [1] - Recent statements regarding tariffs have led to a rebound in financial market prices, but there is considerable uncertainty regarding the final scope of tariffs and responses from other countries [1] Geopolitical Factors - Geopolitical uncertainties are evident, which are expected to negatively impact global economic activity [1] - There is a risk that households and businesses may delay spending while awaiting clearer economic prospects, contributing to a weak outlook for Australia's economic growth, employment, and inflation [1]
直击华尔街|专访Spartan Capital Securities首席市场经济学家Peter Cardillo: 美国经济或已陷“轻度衰退”,美联储年内料降息一至两次
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-12 12:31
南方财经全媒体记者 周蕊 纽约报道 美联储年内料降息一至两次 南方财经:5月7日美联储连续第三次宣布维持利率不变,美联储主席鲍威尔表示,在贸易政策更加明朗 之前,他不会急于降息。您认为这种"观望"态度向市场传递了怎样的信号? Peter Cardillo:我认为他在坚持一贯的立场。他一直以来就是这么想的。我认为他是对的,因为我们 确实需要对贸易局势有更多的了解,特别是它将如何发展。当然,现在最大的问题是,通胀是否会再次 上升并成为一个令人担忧的问题。所以我认为鲍威尔现在采取观望策略是正确的。 南方财经:美联储最新的声明中也强调了通胀和就业风险都在上升。 Peter Cardillo:是的。事实上,鲍威尔提到了"滞胀",这是他许多年没有谈及的话题。所以我想这正是 关键所在。目前来看,通胀确实在下降,整体趋势是正确的。但同时也确实存在"黏性通胀",很多价格 虽然下降了,但还没有降到让消费者真正拥有更多可支配收入的水平。所以我们仍然需要保持警惕。我 认为债券市场正在为鲍威尔的谨慎态度鼓掌。 南方财经:您是否开始看到一些滞胀的早期迹象? 在美联储连续第三次维持利率不变之际,全球市场正聚焦两大关键变量——"高关税不确定 ...
5月9日电,美联储理事巴尔表示,围绕关税的不确定性增加了通胀上升和经济增长放缓的风险。
news flash· 2025-05-09 10:38
智通财经5月9日电,美联储理事巴尔表示,围绕关税的不确定性增加了通胀上升和经济增长放缓的风 险。 ...
Shopify Stock Moves Lower as Tariffs Dent Forecast
Schaeffers Investment Research· 2025-05-08 14:52
Core Insights - Shopify Inc (NASDAQ:SHOP) has experienced a 3.5% decline, trading at $91.20, following disappointing guidance attributed to tariff uncertainty [1] - The company reported first-quarter profits of 25 cents per share, which met estimates, alongside a revenue beat [1] Analyst Sentiment - Analysts remain predominantly bullish, with 28 out of 45 covering analysts rating Shopify stock as a "buy" or better [2] - The 12-month consensus target price for Shopify is $117.87, indicating a 28.5% discount to current trading levels, suggesting potential for downward adjustments [2] Technical Analysis - Shopify is currently testing support at $90, a level it previously conquered in late March [3] - The stock has seen a 15% decline year-to-date in 2025, but maintains a 44.1% year-over-year gain [3] - The most active options are the weekly 5/23 92-strike calls, with significant new positions being opened [3] Options Market Activity - The equity's 50-day put/call volume ratio is higher than 89% of readings from the past year, indicating bearish sentiment among long-term options traders [4]
分析师:美联储必须表明它不会被迫降息
news flash· 2025-05-08 14:13
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve must demonstrate its independence and commitment to not being pressured into lowering interest rates, especially in light of political challenges [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Federal Reserve's Decision**: The decision to maintain the policy interest rate was expected, indicating the Fed's need to show it is not influenced by political pressures [1] - **Economic Concerns**: The Fed highlighted uncertainties regarding tariffs that could potentially increase inflation and unemployment rates [1] - **Political Pressure**: Recent criticisms from President Trump towards the Fed and its Chairman Powell regarding the reluctance to lower borrowing costs add to the challenges faced by the Fed [1] - **Independence at Risk**: The independence of the Fed's policy-making is perceived to be at risk due to external political pressures [1]
黄金短线反弹,关税不确定性叠加美联储利率维持不变,黄金基本面即将发生改变?交易学院正在直播,点击立即观看>>>
news flash· 2025-05-08 08:41
黄金短线反弹,关税不确定性叠加美联储利率维持不变,黄金基本面即将发生改变?交易学院正在直 播,点击立即观看>>> 相关链接 ...
博时市场点评5月8日:两市继续反弹,创业板涨1.65%
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-05-08 08:06
Market Overview - The A-share market continued to rise, with the ChiNext index increasing by over 1.65%, while total trading volume decreased to 1.32 trillion yuan compared to the previous day [1][4] - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target rate at 4.25-4.50%, aligning with market expectations, and kept the balance sheet reduction pace unchanged [2][3] Federal Reserve Insights - The Fed's recent meeting indicated a cautious stance on monetary policy adjustments, with market expectations for three rate cuts this year in July, September, and December [1][2] - Powell highlighted the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and its impact on inflation and growth, suggesting a wait-and-see approach [2] Central Bank Actions - As of the end of April, China's gold reserves reached 73.77 million ounces (approximately 2,294.51 tons), marking a month-on-month increase of 70,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) for the sixth consecutive month [2] - The continuous increase in gold reserves reflects concerns over global economic uncertainty and risks associated with the US dollar [3] Sector Performance - In the A-share market, the telecommunications, defense, and power equipment sectors led the gains, with increases of 2.60%, 2.57%, and 1.62% respectively [4] - Conversely, the beauty care, non-ferrous metals, and steel sectors experienced declines of 0.96%, 0.43%, and 0.38% respectively [4] Trading Data - The market's trading volume was reported at 1,321.94 billion yuan, showing a decrease from the previous trading day [5] - The margin trading balance rose to 1,808.746 billion yuan, indicating an increase compared to the prior day [5]
未知机构:中金海外美联储的两难是容忍一次通胀冲击提前应对未来增长压力-20250508
未知机构· 2025-05-08 02:20
Summary of Key Points Industry Overview - The document discusses the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy stance and the challenges faced by Chairman Jerome Powell regarding inflation and growth pressures [1]. Core Insights and Arguments - The Federal Reserve is in a "dilemma" between tolerating a temporary inflation shock to address future growth pressures or focusing on immediate inflation concerns at the cost of growth [1]. - The recent meeting of the Federal Reserve leaned slightly hawkish, indicating a rejection of "preemptive action" [1]. - Current economic data is relatively strong, which may influence the Fed's decision-making process [1]. - Powell's term ends in May next year, suggesting that a wait-and-see approach might be the optimal short-term strategy [1]. - Powell ambiguously stated that if tariffs remain at current levels, interest rate cuts may not occur within the year [1]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - There is uncertainty regarding tariffs, which could impact future monetary policy decisions [1]. - Despite the Fed's stance, the market appears to remain hopeful for potential rate cuts [1].
机构:美联储的政策声明比预期要鹰派
news flash· 2025-05-07 20:11
Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's policy statement is more hawkish than expected, indicating concerns about stagflation and uncertainty regarding tariffs [1] Group 1 - Spartan Capital Securities' chief market economist, Peter Cardillo, notes that the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged reflects a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties [1] - The Fed's statement suggests a strong commitment to remain on hold until more information is available regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation [1] - The current Fed meeting is characterized by significant uncertainty, highlighting the challenges faced by policymakers in navigating economic conditions [1]