白宫官员：（谈与日本的协议）药品和芯片的关税将单独谈判，不会比其他贸易伙伴更差。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Germany supports the European Commission's preparation measures for countering tariffs amounting to €100 billion [1] Group 2 - The German representative emphasized the importance of a unified EU response to external trade pressures [1] - The proposed countermeasures are aimed at protecting European industries from potential negative impacts of tariffs [1]

据央视新闻，当地时间23日，日本首相石破茂在直播记者会上称，日本与美国就关税问题达成一致，美方将向日本征收15%的关税，并增加进口 美国大米。该协议还包括日本向美国投资5500亿美元的承诺。 这一与关键协议缓解了市场对关税战的担忧。亚洲股市基准指数跳涨近2%至四年高位，帮助MSCI全球股指将2025年涨幅扩大至11%。日本股市 创历史新高，丰田汽车公司股价飙升，日元小幅上涨。 投资者押注关税突破，欧洲汽车股全面上涨 特朗普在社交平台Truth Social上称这项"大规模"贸易协议"可能是有史以来最大的协议"。日本首相石破茂对此表示欢迎，据报道，他称这标志 着"在与美国存在贸易顺差的国家中关税最低"。 Rayliant Global Advisors Ltd.投资组合管理主管Phillip Wool表示： "这基本符合我们对特朗普的预期。华盛顿现在真正关心的是达成标题性协议，让双方都能声称在贸易谈判中取得胜利，但让我们远离 全面贸易战可能带来的严重经济后果。" 花旗经济学家Katsuhiko Aiba表示，华盛顿和东京将汽车关税降至15%的协议可能影响与其他主要汽车出口国的谈判进程，特别是欧盟和韩国。 欧股开 ...

新华社北京7月23日电 美国总统特朗普22日在社交媒体上先后宣布，美国与菲律宾、日本达成贸易 协议，并称美日达成的是有史以来最大规模贸易协议。 特朗普政府一天之内高调发布美日、美菲贸易协议，披露与印度尼西亚贸易协议细节，并预告与欧 盟即将开展的谈判情况，意在形成美方推进贸易谈判的舆论声势。不过，从美日协议等细节观察，美为 达成协议也作出不小让步。同时，部分贸易伙伴并未受已达成贸易协议影响，甚至对美谈判立场转向强 硬。 以让步推动"最大规模协议"？ 特朗普称，根据协议，日本将向美国投资5500亿美元，美国将获得投资利润的90%。日本将向美国 开放汽车、卡车、大米及某些其他农产品和商品市场。美国将对日本输美产品征收15%的关税。 日本是美国主要贸易伙伴之一，两国因贸易逆差、汇率和汽车市场准入等发生过贸易摩擦。特朗普 本月7日曾致信日本首相石破茂，宣布将自8月1日起把几乎所有日本输美商品关税提高至25%。 负责谈判的经济再生大臣赤泽亮正22日当天在社交媒体上发文称"任务完成"。 石破茂23日晚些时候披露，根据协议，美国对日本汽车关税税率将降至15%。在日本舆论看来，作 为日美谈判焦点的汽车关税下调幅度超出预期，反映 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent agreement between the US and Japan on a 15% reciprocal tariff is seen as a positive surprise, boosting market sentiment and leading to a significant rebound in Japanese stocks, particularly in the automotive sector [1][2]. Group 1: Agreement Details - The US will implement a 15% reciprocal tariff on Japan, while Japan will invest $550 billion in the US and open its markets for rice and automobiles [2]. - The initial plan was to impose a 25% tariff on Japanese imports starting August 1, but the new agreement is viewed positively for Japanese companies, allowing them to absorb the lower tariff rate [2][3]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, the Nikkei index surged by 1,396 points, closing at 41,171 points, marking a 3.51% increase, the highest in about a year [1]. - Automotive stocks, which had been heavily sold off, saw strong rebounds, with Toyota's stock rising by 13.65% and Honda by 10.34% [3]. - Financial stocks also experienced significant gains, with Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group up 4.67% and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group up 5.52% [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts believe this agreement could mark a turning point in market dynamics, with July 23 potentially being remembered as a key historical date [5]. - The upcoming earnings season is expected to bring more positive outlooks from companies, further supporting market growth [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings for Different Industries The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but offers specific trading suggestions for various futures varieties: - **Long Positions**: Steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, copper, alumina, urea, PX, PTA, bottle chips, ethanol, LLDPE, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, rubber, industrial silicon, polysilicon [2] - **Short Positions**: IM futures long positions (to be gradually liquidated), 08 contract or 10 - contract of container shipping index (EC2510) for short - selling, sugar, palm oil (observation for short - selling opportunities), cotton (medium - term short - selling), eggs (long - term short - selling) [2] - **Hold and Observe**: Treasury bonds (short - term), gold and silver (long positions held), stainless steel, crude oil, benzene, styrene, synthetic rubber (not recommended to chase up), PP, methanol, corn, apples, dates, peanuts, glass, soda ash, lithium carbonate [2] 2. Core Views - **Equity Index**: The main line of pro - cyclical continues to ferment, A - shares rise with heavy volume, and there is an obvious phenomenon of high - low rotation between sectors [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: The decline in funding rates supports short - term bonds. Long - term bonds are significantly suppressed by the recovery of risk appetite in the short term. The overall futures bond trading range moves down. Pay attention to whether incremental policies will be introduced at the Politburo meeting at the end of July [2] - **Precious Metals**: Under the weakening of the US dollar and multiple news disturbances, the prices of gold and silver remain strong. Gold is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend and hit a previous high, and silver has further upward space above $38 [2] - **Black Metals**: The sentiment in the black metal market improves, pig iron production rebounds, and steel mills' restocking provides support. The expectation of production - restriction documents increases, coal mine复产 lags, and the spot market is strong [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The implementation of anti - involution policies promotes the copper price to be volatile and strong. The expectation of capacity elimination and the intensification of squeeze - out risks drive the alumina price to a new high [2] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The tariff negotiation is deadlocked, and the short - term oil price is mainly weak. The macro - policy boosts the market's strong expectation trading sentiment, and most chemical products show short - term support or upward trends [2] - **Agricultural Products**: The bottom support of US soybeans is strong, and the capital sentiment supports domestic soybean meal prices. The prices of some agricultural products such as palm oil and sugar face adjustment or short - selling opportunities [2] - **Special Commodities**: Affected by macro - sentiment and supply - side factors, the prices of glass, soda ash, and other special commodities fluctuate greatly, and risk avoidance should be noted [2] 3. Summaries by Related Categories **Equity Index Futures** - The main line of pro - cyclical continues to ferment, A - shares rise with heavy volume. It is recommended to gradually liquidate IM futures long positions, replace them with a small number of MO put option short positions in the 08 contract with a strike price of 6000, and reduce the position, with a mild bullish view [2] **Treasury Bond Futures** - The decline in funding rates supports short - term bonds. Long - term bonds are significantly suppressed by the recovery of risk appetite in the short term. The overall futures bond trading range moves down. In the single - side strategy, short - term observation is recommended. Pay attention to whether incremental policies will be introduced at the Politburo meeting at the end of July. Considering the possible loosening of the funding side, the curve strategy can continue to bet on steepening [2] **Precious Metals Futures** - The weakening of the US dollar and multiple news disturbances keep the prices of gold and silver strong. Gold is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend and hit a previous high. Silver has further upward space above $38, and long positions can be held [2] **Container Shipping Index Futures** - The main contract of the container shipping index (EC2510) falls. It is expected that the near - month contract will be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to short - sell the 08 contract or short - sell the 10 - contract at high prices [2] **Black Metal Futures** - The sentiment in the black metal market improves, pig iron production rebounds, and steel mills' restocking provides support. The expectation of production - restriction documents increases, coal mine复产 lags, the spot market is strong, and the transaction recovers. Mainstream coking plants initiate the second round of price increases, and the prices of coking coal and coke are expected to continue to rebound [2] **Non - ferrous Metal Futures** - The implementation of anti - involution policies promotes the copper price to be volatile and strong. The expectation of capacity elimination and the intensification of squeeze - out risks drive the alumina price to a new high. The aluminum price rebounds slightly, but the expectation of inventory accumulation in the off - season is still strong. The demand expectation for zinc is still weak [2] **Energy and Chemical Futures** - **Crude Oil**: The tariff negotiation is deadlocked, and the short - term oil price is mainly weak, with WTI in the range of [63, 64], Brent in the range of [66, 67], and SC in the range of [498, 505] [2] - **Chemicals**: The macro - policy boosts the market's strong expectation trading sentiment. Most chemical products such as urea, PX, PTA, etc. show short - term support or upward trends, but there are also differences in supply - demand fundamentals and price trends among different products [2] **Agricultural Product Futures** - The bottom support of US soybeans is strong, and the capital sentiment supports domestic soybean meal prices. The prices of some agricultural products such as palm oil and sugar face adjustment or short - selling opportunities. The old - crop cotton inventory is relatively tight, and the downstream market is weak, showing short - term strength and medium - term short - selling opportunities [2] **Special Commodity Futures** - Affected by macro - sentiment and supply - side factors, the prices of glass, soda ash, etc. fluctuate greatly. It is necessary to pay attention to risk avoidance [2]

Group 1 - Gold prices have surged back to the 3400 level, primarily driven by factors such as the extension of US tariffs and ongoing trade negotiations with the EU and China [3][5] - The market is reacting to speculation around potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the political situation surrounding Chairman Powell, which has created uncertainty and volatility [3][5] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has also contributed to the bullish sentiment in gold, as increased military aid to Ukraine from the US and Europe continues to escalate tensions [3][5] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold has broken through the 3375-3380 resistance level and is now testing the 3400 mark, with potential upward targets of 3420-425 and possibly reaching historical highs around 3500 [5][7] - Silver prices are following gold's upward trend, having reached an annual high, but caution is advised as the market enters a phase where chasing prices is not recommended [7][9] - The US dollar index has shown fluctuations, currently approaching the 97 level, with expectations of a potential upward adjustment targeting 99 and beyond [9] Group 3 - Crude oil prices are moving in the opposite direction to gold, nearing critical support levels around 64-65, with a bullish outlook as long as these levels hold [11]

Market Overview - The current gold price has strongly broken through the $3,400 mark, reaching a high of $3,433.37 per ounce, the highest since June 16, with a closing increase of 1% to $3,431.59 per ounce [2] - The rise in gold prices is supported by global trade uncertainties, a decline in the US dollar, and falling US Treasury yields [2] Economic Indicators - There are indications of a significant likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with suggestions from the US Treasury Secretary and Powell advocating for a reduction of rates by up to 3 percentage points [2] - The ongoing trade negotiations are at a stalemate, which is contributing to the weakening of the dollar and providing upward momentum for gold prices [2] Technical Analysis - The daily chart indicates an upward trend for gold, with technical indicators showing a bullish crossover and increasing momentum [4] - However, there are signs of potential short-term overbought conditions, suggesting a need for a pullback or consolidation [4] - The 4-hour chart indicates a possible peak, with support levels identified at $3,405-$3,400, and a break below $3,400 could lead to further adjustments [4] Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategy includes shorting gold at $3,435 with a stop-loss at $3,442 and a target range of $3,420-$3,310 [5] - For silver, the upward trend continues with a temporary high around $39.3, and potential resistance at $39.5, while support is noted at $38.5-$37.5 [5] Domestic Futures - In the domestic futures market, Shanghai gold has reached 795, and accumulation gold has reached 790, with recommendations to exit long positions and wait for a pullback before re-entering [6] - Support levels for Shanghai gold are at 780, while accumulation gold support is at 772 [6] Shanghai Silver - Shanghai silver has reached a temporary high of 9,540, with no clear top formation yet; however, a failure to reach new highs could indicate a potential peak [7] - Support levels for Shanghai silver are identified at 9,350-9,250, with a break below these levels suggesting a shift from strong to weak momentum [7]

Main Variety Views Macroeconomy - Overseas: Trump reached a trade deal with Japan, the US imposed a 19% tariff on Philippine goods, the US - Indonesia agreement was finalized, and China - US will restart trade negotiations in Sweden. The dollar index fell to 97.3, and the 10Y US Treasury yield dropped to 4.35%. [2] - Domestic: A 1.2 - trillion Tibet hydropower project and industry supply - side optimization policies boosted market sentiment. The Shanghai Composite Index reached 3580, and the trading volume in the two markets rebounded to 1.93 trillion. [2] Precious Metals - International precious metal prices rose. Gold reached a nearly five - week high above $3400 per ounce, and silver neared $40. Trade uncertainties and low US bond yields drove the increase. [3] - With the US - EU trade negotiation at a standstill and political intervention risks, the safe - haven appeal of precious metals increased. Prices are expected to be volatile and bullish. [3][4] Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper and LME copper rose. The domestic spot market was active, and LME inventory increased to 12.5 tons. [5] - Trump's pressure on Powell, China's policies, and supply - demand fundamentals are expected to keep copper prices bullish in the short term. [5][6] Aluminum - Shanghai and LME aluminum prices rose. Aluminum ingot inventory increased, and aluminum rod inventory decreased. [7] - High overseas macro uncertainties and domestic policies boosted sentiment. Despite the high price and off - season consumption, the market is still bullish. [7] Alumina - Alumina futures and spot prices rose. Some enterprises plan to conduct maintenance in late July, tightening supply. [8][9] - Alumina is expected to remain bullish, but over - heating risks should be noted. [9] Zinc - Shanghai and LME zinc prices were bullish. The spot market was affected by high prices, and the transaction was mainly among traders. [10] - Overseas uncertainties, domestic policies, and LME's potential squeeze situation are expected to drive zinc prices to continue to rebound. [10] Lead - Shanghai and LME lead prices were volatile. The supply of electrolytic lead and recycled lead was limited, and downstream consumption improvement was limited. [11] - With cost support and limited upward drivers, lead prices will be volatile. [11] Tin - Shanghai and LME tin prices were bullish. The market atmosphere was warm, but the fundamentals were weak, with inventory likely to increase. [12] - Tin prices may be bullish in the short term due to capital, but continuous growth is not supported. [12] Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon rose significantly. The spot price increased, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased due to reduced production. [13] - Supply contraction and policies are expected to keep industrial silicon prices bullish in the short term. [13][14] Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium futures and spot prices rose. Policy intervention and production line maintenance affected the market. [15] - Policy - driven lithium prices may be bullish, but demand - side signals need attention. [15][16] Nickel - Nickel prices were bullish. Nickel ore prices were weakening, and nickel - related products showed different trends. [17][18] - Overseas trade risks and domestic policies will make nickel prices volatile. [18] Crude Oil - Crude oil prices were weak. US API inventory decreased, and global oil demand growth may be affected by the economy and tariffs. [19] - Geopolitical risks are cooling, and the market is in a short - term bullish and long - term bearish situation. Short - term prices will be volatile. [19] Steel and Iron Ore - Steel futures were bullish. Coal policies and production control supported steel prices. [20] - Iron ore futures were bullish. Port inventory increased, and the market was driven by macro factors and improved fundamentals. [21] Bean and Rapeseed Meal - Bean and rapeseed meal futures rose. Brazilian soybean exports may decrease, and US soybean压榨利润 decreased. [22] - Weather in August and trade agreements will affect prices. Domestic policies and supply expectations will keep prices volatile. [22][23] Palm Oil - Palm oil futures rose. Malaysian palm oil production may increase, and exports decreased in the first 20 days of July. [24] - Domestic policies and potential supply - demand tightening are expected to make palm oil prices volatile and bullish. [25][26] Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing price, change, change percentage, trading volume, and open interest of various metal futures contracts on July 22, 2025. [27] Industrial Data Perspective - The report presents detailed data on copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coke, coal, carbonate lithium, industrial silicon, and bean and rapeseed meal, including price changes, inventory, and basis. [28][33][35]

韩国将大米、牛肉设定为美国关税谈判的"红线"。（韩联社） ...