Market Overview - The A-share market is currently experiencing fluctuations around the 3600-point level, reflecting increased divergence between bulls and bears [2][16][17] - The market is likely to enter a period of consolidation, with the index expected to oscillate around 3600 points to digest accumulated pressure [17] - Short-term market sentiment is influenced by profit-taking and external disturbances, while medium-term trends remain upward due to policy support and industry upgrades [5][17] Sector Performance - The semiconductor and AI application sectors have shown strength, indicating a potential shift towards technology stocks, particularly among small and mid-cap growth stocks [1][16] - The "Yalu River Downstream Hydropower" concept stocks have experienced significant volatility, with a recent pullback after a period of strong performance [11] - The healthcare sector, particularly innovative drugs and medical devices, is expected to see continued growth due to favorable policy changes and an aging population [10] Investment Strategy - Short-term strategies should focus on avoiding high-flying stocks and selectively reducing positions in sectors that have seen substantial gains, such as the Yalu River hydropower concept [3][17] - Mid-term investments should target growth sectors with elastic potential, including AI infrastructure, innovative pharmaceuticals, and humanoid robotics, driven by both policy and technological advancements [3][17] - The cultural media sector is also highlighted as a potential area for investment, particularly in gaming and interactive content, benefiting from advancements in AI technology [9] Economic Indicators - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring tariff negotiations and the overall liquidity environment, which are expected to positively influence the A-share market [3][17] - The upcoming fiscal policy window in Q3 and the timing of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shift are critical factors to watch for market direction [3][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. The EU will increase its investment in the US by $600 billion, purchase US military equipment, and buy $750 billion worth of US energy products. This will lead to a short - term decline in the US dollar index [15]. - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week, but risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [3]. - The 10 - department joint issuance of the plan to promote agricultural product consumption aims to boost agricultural product consumption through various measures. The decline in industrial enterprise profits in June has narrowed, and the new kinetic energy industry represented by the equipment industry has seen rapid profit growth [17][18]. - The export data of Malaysian palm oil is poor, and the domestic oil mill operating rate is expected to increase. Steel prices have risen significantly due to the continuous increase in coking coal and coke prices and the relatively strong fundamentals of finished products, but there is a risk of overvaluation [5]. - Polysilicon is expected to correct in the short term, and it is advisable to consider short - selling lightly through options [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff rate agreement. Trump has the right to restore higher tariff levels if other countries fail to fulfill their investment commitments. The EU hopes to continue discussions on steel and aluminum tariffs with the US. The applicable tariff will be the higher of the "most - favored - nation tariff" or 15%. The short - term market risk preference will moderately recover, and the US dollar index will decline in the short term [13][15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will decline in the short term [16]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - 10 departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for Promoting Agricultural Product Consumption" to promote agricultural product consumption through various measures. In June, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 4.3% year - on - year, and the decline has narrowed. The new kinetic energy industry represented by the equipment industry has seen rapid profit growth. The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, which may set an example for upcoming China - US tariffs. A Politburo meeting will be held this week, and attention should be paid to its statements on the economic work in the second half of the year [17][18][19]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate stock indexes evenly [20]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US and the EU have reached a 15% tariff agreement, but there are still differences in key industry tariffs. The US durable goods orders in June decreased by 9.3% month - on - month, better than the expected - 10.7%. The core data excluding Boeing orders performed well. The US - EU tariff negotiation has accelerated, and the risk of further deterioration of the tariff level has decreased, supporting market risk preference [21][22]. - Investment advice: The trade negotiation is moving in a positive direction, and it will still fluctuate strongly in the short term, but attention should be paid to the risk of correction [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 789.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 601.8 billion yuan. Market sentiment is expected to ease temporarily next week, and the funds are expected to become looser after the end of the month. However, risk appetite will be strong in Q3, and there will still be fluctuations in the bond market [23]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to cautiously bet on the opportunity of oversold rebound next week. Do not be bearish in the long term, but the market will be volatile in Q3, and it may be too early for allocation buyers to go long at present [24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal price in the Linfen market is running strongly. The recent futures price increase is mainly due to macro - policies. The National Energy Administration plans to conduct a verification of coal mine production in key coal - producing provinces, but the actual impact of checking over - production may be limited. The price may return to the fundamentals. The supply of coking coal has recovered partially this week, and the coke price has increased for the third time, with some steel mills accepting the increase [25][26]. - Investment advice: The market sentiment for coking coal is still strong, but the risk is high as the price rises significantly. Pay attention to position management [27]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills in the 30th week was 2.2389 million tons, with an operating rate of 62.94%. It is expected to reach 2.3726 million tons and 66.69% in the 31st week. From July 1 - 25, the export of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.23% month - on - month. The production of Malaysian palm oil in July is expected to increase, and the inventory will increase significantly. China may export 100,000 - 120,000 tons of soybean oil to India [28][29]. - Investment advice: The data from Malaysia is bearish for palm oil. It is not recommended to short unilaterally. Consider buying put options or waiting for opportunities to go long at low prices. For international soybean oil, focus on US weather and bio - fuel policies. For domestic soybean oil, if exports to India increase, it will support prices [30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The international sugar price has fluctuated greatly. The expected increase in production in Brazil and India and the rumor of India's export in the 2025/26 season have put pressure on the price. India's sugar export may be unfeasible at current international prices. The sugar mills of Guangxi Nanhua have cleared their warehouses, and the spot price in Guangxi has remained stable with a narrow - range shock. The sugarcane yield in the central - southern region of Brazil has decreased in June [31][33][34]. - Investment advice: The international sugar market is under pressure from supply. The Zhengzhou sugar futures are expected to fluctuate mainly. Pay attention to the resistance level of 5900 yuan [35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In the first half of 2025, China's cotton product exports increased under pressure. As of mid - July, the pre - sale progress of Brazilian cotton in 2025 was 65%. As of July 17, the weekly net signing of US cotton in the 25/26 season was 30,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 54%. The ICE cotton price is expected to be in a low - level shock pattern in the short term [36][37][39]. - Investment advice: The lack of news about increased import quotas in China, tight old - cotton inventory, and high operating rates in Xinjiang spinning mills will support cotton prices in the short term. However, the demand from inland spinning mills is weakening, and the increase in warehouse receipts and the expectation of increased production in the 25/26 season may limit the upward trend of cotton prices [40]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Argentina has lowered the export tariffs on soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil. The operating rate of domestic oil mills has remained high. China has stopped purchasing US soybeans since the end of May, and the pre - sale of US new - crop soybeans is significantly lower than the normal level in previous years [41][42]. - Investment advice: CBOT soybeans and soybean meal are expected to fluctuate. Focus on the development of the China - US trade war. Soybean meal inventory will continue to accumulate, and the spot basis will remain weak [42]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Most coal mines in Ordos maintained normal production on July 23, and the coal price was stable with a slight increase. The implementation of the over - production policy and high summer temperatures are expected to keep the coal price strong. The power plant's inventory has decreased slightly, and the coal price is expected to return to around the long - term agreement price of 670 yuan [43][44]. - Investment advice: The coal price is expected to remain strong, and it is expected to return to around 670 yuan, the long - term agreement price [44]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The iron ore production and sales of Mount Gibson in the second quarter decreased year - on - year. Affected by coking coal and coke, the iron ore price has fluctuated strongly, but it has encountered resistance after breaking through $105. The long - term increase in the price center of coking coal and coke will suppress the upside potential of iron ore [45]. - Investment advice: Observe the follow - up of the spot market after the price pull - back. The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, so it is recommended to reduce the position [46]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The fifth blast furnace of Vietnam's Hoa Phat Group's Dung Quat Steel Complex has been put into operation, increasing the annual production capacity by 5.6 million tons. The total new - signed contract value of the top seven construction central enterprises in the first six months exceeded 5.9 trillion yuan. South Korea will impose temporary anti - dumping duties on hot - rolled steel plates imported from China and Japan. Steel prices have risen significantly, but there is a risk of overvaluation [47][49][50]. - Investment advice: Steel prices will remain strong in the short term. It is recommended to observe cautiously [51]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The consumption of corn starch sugar is average, and the operating rate has decreased. The consumption of corn and corn starch has decreased this week [52]. - Investment advice: Starch enterprises may continue to face losses, and the operating rate is expected to remain low. This is not favorable for the rice - flour price difference [53][54]. 3.2.10 Agricultural Products (Corn) - In June 2025, the national industrial feed production was 27.67 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%. The proportion of corn in compound feed increased by 2.5 percentage points year - on - year. The "anti - involution" policy in the breeding industry may reduce the corn demand in the new year [55]. - Investment advice: The stalemate in the spot market may continue until the new corn is on the market. The 09 contract may weaken in advance. Hold the short positions of new - crop corn and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [55]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limit for the LC2509 contract of lithium carbonate futures. The price of lithium carbonate has increased, and there are rumors about production cuts in some areas. The limit - trading measure is expected to stabilize the market [56][57]. - Investment advice: Before the production cuts are confirmed, there is no upward momentum for the price. Pay attention to the downstream procurement. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of holding inventory and reverse arbitrage [58]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The EU has started monitoring the trade of scrap copper and aluminum. Teck Resources has lowered the production forecast of its Chilean copper mine. Freeport's Indonesian subsidiary has started its new smelter [59][60][61]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, be cautious about the repeated macro - expectations. The copper price is expected to remain high and fluctuate. It is recommended to observe. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [62]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the trading limit, daily limit, margin, and handling fees for industrial silicon and polysilicon futures. The spot price of polysilicon has increased slightly, but the actual transaction has not changed much. The production of polysilicon is expected to increase in July and August, with a monthly surplus of 100,000 - 200,000 tons [63][64][65]. - Investment advice: The delivery price of polysilicon sets a lower limit for the futures price. However, due to the difficulty of the spot price to keep up with the futures price increase, the short - term price is expected to correct. Consider short - selling lightly through options and look for opportunities to go long after the correction [66]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production and operating rate of industrial silicon in Xinjiang, the Northwest, Yunnan, and Sichuan have shown different trends. The social inventory has decreased, and the factory inventory has increased. The supply is expected to increase with the resumption of production, and the supply - demand gap will narrow in August [67][68][69]. - Investment advice: After the price increase, the basis of industrial silicon has weakened rapidly. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling at high prices or selling out - of - the - money call options [69]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Danantara is considering acquiring the GNI smelter in Indonesia. The nickel price has been strong recently but fell on Friday night. There are different statements about Indonesia's nickel export policy. The price of Philippine nickel ore has decreased, and the price of nickel iron has increased, but the steel mills' purchasing intention is not strong [70][71]. - Investment advice: The nickel price is closely related to macro - sentiment. It is recommended to use options for hedging in unilateral trading. Holders can sell for hedging at high prices [72]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - From January to June 2025, the number of electric bicycles recycled and replaced was 8.465 million each. The new national standard for electric bicycles will be implemented on September 1. The overseas macro - situation has limited fluctuations. The supply of primary lead is tight, and the production of secondary lead has increased slightly. The demand from end - users has not improved significantly, but the lead social inventory may turn around [73][74][75]. - Investment advice: In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity of buying at low prices and manage the position well. For arbitrage, it is recommended to observe temporarily [76]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The port inventory of zinc concentrate has decreased by 860,000 tons compared with last week. The 0 - 3 cash spread of LME zinc has turned negative, but the注销仓单 is still high. The zinc smelting profit may improve in August, and the supply is expected to remain high. The demand from primary processing industries is differentiated, and the social inventory has increased significantly [77][78]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, the risk is high, and it is recommended to observe. For arbitrage, pay attention to the opportunity of medium - term calendar spread positive arbitrage. It is recommended to observe in terms of domestic - foreign trading [79]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On July 25, the closing price of the EUA main contract was 71.34 euros/ton, a 0.65% increase from the previous day and a 2.07% increase from last week. The investment funds reduced their net long positions by 100,000 tons last week. The carbon price is expected to be volatile in the short term [80]. - Investment advice: The EU carbon price will be volatile in the short term [81]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The number of US oil rigs has decreased. The Middle - East oil price has strengthened relative to Brent. The increase in the Middle - East oil export volume is limited. The strong diesel crack spread and EU sanctions on Russia support the Middle - East oil price [82][83]. - Investment advice: The oil price will remain volatile. Pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting and market risk preference [84]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On July 25, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was slightly adjusted. The supply has increased, and the demand is average. The caustic soda futures price has increased due to the overall positive sentiment in the commodity market, but the increase is limited [85][86]. - Investment advice: The caustic soda valuation is not low, and the speculative demand is difficult to stimulate, resulting in a small increase [86]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The spot price of imported wood pulp is generally stable, with individual prices increasing slightly. The futures price has continued to rise, but the downstream paper mills' follow - up is not strong, and high - price transactions are difficult [87]. - Investment advice: Due to the "anti - involution" policy, low - valued pulp may be targeted by funds. Investors should pay attention to the risks [88]. 3.

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the new round of China-US tariff negotiations is expected to marginally reduce tariff impacts, with trade agreements likely to be established following the upcoming talks in July 2025 [1] - Recent orders for electric tools indicate stable sales growth, with significant contracts secured from major European and international retailers, amounting to at least $15 million and $30 million annually, respectively [1] - The company anticipates a return to normal growth levels due to reduced uncertainty from tariffs and plans to increase investments in overseas factories and new product development [1] Group 2 - Expectations of interest rate cuts are leading to a gradual recovery in downstream demand, which is likely to boost sales of the company's tool products [2] - Home Depot's inventory-to-sales ratio is improving, indicating a potential demand recovery, with the ratio rising to 61.7% in Q1 2025 from 52.7% in Q4 2024 [2] - The US housing market is showing signs of recovery, with existing home sales increasing to 4.13 million units in Q1 2025, up from 3.94 million in Q3 2024 [2] Group 3 - The recovery in the real estate market is expected to drive demand for tools and related products, with profit forecasts for the company indicating net profits of 2.708 billion, 3.409 billion, and 4.003 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [3] - The company maintains a "recommended" rating based on projected price-to-earnings ratios of 15x, 12x, and 10x for the respective years [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the negotiation between the EU and the US regarding tariffs, which resulted in a new agreement that includes a 15% tariff rate on EU goods and significant investments from the EU into the US [1][3][6] - The agreement stipulates that the EU will invest $600 billion in the US and purchase $750 billion worth of US energy products, while maintaining the current tariffs on steel and aluminum [3][6] - The EU's response to the US's demands indicates a shift in their negotiation strategy, as they have agreed to a deal that is perceived to be more stringent than previous agreements with Japan [4][6] Group 2 - The article highlights the potential implications of the EU-US agreement for international markets, suggesting it will bring stability to both regions [6] - It also notes that the US is preparing for further negotiations with China, indicating a strategic shift in focus after the EU agreement [8][9] - The article mentions that China has anticipated the EU's concession and is prepared for the US negotiations, leveraging its economic tools such as the sale of US Treasury bonds [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impending trade tensions between the United States and the European Union, highlighting the potential for increased tariffs and the urgency for both parties to reach a trade agreement before the August 1 deadline [1][2][4]. Group 1: Tariff Developments - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Wilbur Ross, announced that the U.S. will not extend the tariff deadline set for August 1 [2]. - The EU plans to impose tariffs on nearly €100 billion worth of U.S. goods if a satisfactory trade agreement is not reached by the deadline [1][2]. - The EU's initial response includes merging two lists of U.S. goods worth €210 billion and €720 billion for potential tariffs, which could take effect on August 7 [2][3]. Group 2: Trade Negotiations - EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is scheduled to meet with U.S. President Trump to discuss a trade agreement, with Trump suggesting a 50% chance of reaching a deal [1][4]. - The proposed agreement may involve a 15% baseline tariff on most EU goods, which is seen as better than the threatened 30% tariff [5]. - Over 70% of EU export goods are currently facing U.S. tariffs, with steel and aluminum at 50%, and automotive products at 25% [4]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The uncertainty surrounding the trade negotiations has led to a pause in interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank, which is concerned about the impact of U.S. tariffs on the Eurozone economy [6]. - The ECB's current economic outlook is described as "exceptionally uncertain," primarily due to the unclear future of U.S.-EU trade talks [6]. - Analysts suggest that the tariffs could trigger further rate cuts or impact the Eurozone's export structure, leading to inflationary pressures [6]. Group 4: Broader Trade Context - Since July 9, the U.S. has only finalized trade agreements with a few countries, including Japan, the Philippines, and Indonesia, while negotiations with the EU and others remain challenging [7][8]. - Trump indicated that most agreements would be finalized by August 1, with potential tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% on various countries [8].

Domestic Economic Insights - High-frequency data indicates a year-on-year improvement in export volumes, but a potential slowdown is expected if the RMB appreciates in the second half of the year[2] - Industrial enterprise profit growth in June shows a narrowing decline, highlighting the need for structural adjustments[2] - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated, reaching a peak in June and July, preparing for a potential rise in interest rates and RMB appreciation[6] Factors Supporting RMB Appreciation - Economic growth exceeded targets in the first half, with a focus on structural adjustments in the second half[2] - Anticipated meetings between European and American leaders with Chinese counterparts in Q3 may influence market dynamics[2] - The depreciation of the USD could lead to increased domestic prices, making Chinese assets more attractive to foreign investors[2] International Trade Developments - Several countries have reached trade negotiation agreements with the US, with tariffs not exceeding 20%, which is more sustainable compared to previous threats[6] - The progress in tariff negotiations has alleviated some pressure on the US, allowing for greater leverage over countries that have not yet reached agreements[6] - The third round of US-China negotiations in Sweden is likely to pave the way for a future meeting between the two nations' leaders[6] Monetary Market Trends - The liquidity environment experienced fluctuations, with a shift from tight to neutral conditions, influenced by significant demand for funds and central bank operations[21] - The average weekly rate for DR001 decreased by 2.556 basis points to 1.443%, while DR007 increased by 0.226 basis points to 1.535%[21] - The net issuance of government bonds is projected to decrease significantly next week, with a planned issuance of approximately 517.75 billion CNY[22]

韩国财政部长可能于7月31日与美国举行关税谈判。（韩联社） ...

Group 1 - South Korea has unexpectedly shifted its stance in handling China-US relations, imposing anti-dumping duties on China while showing intentions to engage in Taiwan Strait issues [1][3] - The cancellation of the scheduled US-Korea "2+2" economic talks did not deter the South Korean economic delegation from pursuing tariff negotiations, indicating a strong commitment to international trade cooperation [1][3] - South Korea's Ministry of Trade decided to impose temporary anti-dumping duties on hot-rolled steel plates and single-mode optical fibers from China, aiming to protect domestic industries during formal investigations [3][4] Group 2 - The economic relationship between China and South Korea is closely intertwined, and the imposition of anti-dumping duties by South Korea could disrupt normal trade and cooperation between the two countries [4][6] - Analysts suggest that while South Korea may increase military spending, the likelihood of direct involvement in Taiwan Strait affairs remains low, although vigilance is necessary due to potential trade-offs with the US [6] - China has expressed strong opposition to any actions that sacrifice its interests for US concessions, indicating readiness to take decisive measures to protect its rights in the international trade environment [6]

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年7月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：短期继续看回落；白银：上行空间基本饱和 强弱分析：黄金偏弱、白银中性 价格区间：760-780元/克、8800-9400元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回落-0.35%，伦敦银回升1.22%。金银比从前周的87.5回落至86.3，10年期TIPS回落至1.96%，10年期名义利率回升至4.4% （2年期3.91%），美元指数录得97.6。 ◆ 本周黄金出现明显回落，外盘触及到3451美元/盎司后震荡下行，符合我们前期"黄金年内高点已现，3400-3500区间内可择机做空"的 观点。本周关税政策陆续敲定，美国对日本确定15%的"对等关税"，而日本则需要向美国投资5500亿美元并 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - ICE cotton is expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend. It currently lacks fundamental guidance, with trading light and remaining in a volatile pattern. The US cotton growth is good, and export sales are in line with seasonal patterns. The tariff negotiations between the US and other countries also meet expectations. For domestic cotton futures, they maintained high - level volatility this week. The concern about tight old - crop inventory has been fully traded, and factors such as potential low - value warehouse receipts for September delivery and a cooling financial market sentiment have stopped the upward momentum. In the short term, the expectation of tight old - crop inventory will support prices, and as long as the textile enterprise operating rate does not drop significantly, cotton demand will be stable, with limited downward pressure on cotton prices. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the market game under the delivery logic after mid - August [1][2][18] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情数据 - ICE cotton main contract: opened at 68.74, reached a high of 68.99, a low of 67.80, closed at 68.23, down 0.53 or - 0.77%. The trading volume was 74,713 lots, a decrease of 14,474 lots, and the open interest was 154,997 lots, an increase of 2,253 lots. - Zhengzhou cotton main contract: opened at 14,295, reached a high of 14,330, a low of 14,095, closed at 14,170, down 100 or - 0.70%. The trading volume was 1,226,001 lots, a decrease of 230,373 lots, and the open interest was 504,805 lots, a decrease of 75,968 lots. - Cotton yarn main contract: opened at 20,540, reached a high of 20,540, a low of 20,270, closed at 20,370, down 150 or - 0.73%. The trading volume was 48,652 lots, an increase of 9,334 lots, and the open interest was 10,802 lots, a decrease of 8,256 lots [5] 3.2.基本面 3.2.1. International Cotton Situation - ICE cotton: Narrowly fluctuated this week, with good US cotton new - crop growth, average but seasonally - compliant export sales, and tariff negotiations in line with expectations. Trading was light due to lack of fundamental guidance [6] - US cotton weekly export sales data (as of July 17): 2024/25 US upland cotton net weekly signing was - 0.74 million tons due to contract cancellations. 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly signing was 3.01 million tons. 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly shipments were 4.19 million tons, up 18% week - on - week but down 12% from the four - week average. The total signed and sold volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton in 2024/25 was 2.7746 billion tons, accounting for 108% of the annual predicted total export volume. The cumulative export shipment volume was 2.539 billion tons, accounting for 92% of the annual total signed volume [6] - Other major cotton - producing and consuming countries: - India: Sowing progress was slower than last year. As of July 18, the cotton planting area was 9.86 million hectares. Cotton sales by the Cotton Corporation of India were suspended. In May, raw cotton imports were 50,000 tons, up 10% from April and higher than last year. The cumulative import volume in the first ten months of this season was 569,000 tons. May raw cotton exports were 21,000 tons, down 4% from the previous month and 47% from May 2024. May cotton yarn exports were 83,900 tons, down 4% from April and 8% from last year. May textile exports were $2.013 billion, up 5% month - on - month and 10% from May 2024 [7] - Brazil: The US tariff increase on Brazil raised concerns in the domestic textile industry. As of July 18, the national cotton picking progress was about 15%. The 2024 - season cotton primary sales were almost completed, and about 70% of the 2025 - season and 25% of the 2026 - season cotton had been sold [8] - Pakistan: Cotton import demand was weak. The new - season cotton output was expected to be between 6.5 and 7.5 million bales. The policy of an 18% sales tax on cotton and cotton yarn imports was yet to be implemented, causing market uncertainty. In June, the export value of the five major textile categories was $1.27 billion, slightly higher than May and up 9% from last year. The cumulative export value in the 2024/25 fiscal year was $14.74 billion, up 8% from 2023/24 [9][10] - Bangladesh: Focused on US tariff negotiations. Textile mills mainly purchased for near - term needs. The government cancelled the 2% advance income tax on imported raw materials. Exporters to the US were worried as the August 1 tariff negotiation deadline approached. If no agreement was reached, a 35% tariff would be imposed on imports from Bangladesh [10] - Southeast Asian textile industry operating rates: As of July 25, India's textile enterprise operating rate was 73.5%, Vietnam's was 64%, and Pakistan's was 63.5% [11] 3.2.2. Domestic Cotton Situation - Cotton spot price: Slightly declined with weak trading. Some 2023/24 and 2024/25 cotton spot quotes increased, and some cotton merchants lowered the basis [12] - Cotton warehouse receipts (as of July 25): There were 9,265 registered first - grade cotton warehouse receipts and 350 pending warehouse receipts, totaling 9,615, equivalent to 403,830 tons. Among the 24/25 registered warehouse receipts, there were 8,891 Xinjiang cottons and 374 local cottons [12] - Downstream trading: Slightly improved. In the pure - cotton yarn market, most spinning mills' quotes were stable, with actual transactions approaching quotes. Air - jet spinning sales were relatively good. Spinning mills' profits remained unimproved, and some continued to limit production. In the all - cotton grey fabric market, the off - season continued, with some local orders and stable quotes. Some weaving mills increased their operating rates, but overall it remained low. Inventory decreased slightly but remained high [13] 3.3.操作建议 - ICE cotton: Maintain a volatile trend. There is no new downside risk currently, but the good US cotton growth and uncertain global cotton consumption limit its upward momentum. It needs a driver to break through the oscillation range. Attention should be paid to tariff negotiations between the US and China, India, etc. - Domestic cotton futures: Short - term support from the expectation of tight old - crop inventory. As long as the textile enterprise operating rate does not drop significantly, cotton demand will be stable, and the downward pressure on cotton prices is limited. Technically, pay attention to the 13,600 - 13,900 support range. Also, pay attention to policy trends and the market game under the delivery logic after mid - August [18]