新华社北京11月14日电 题：发挥积极财政政策作用为奋力开创中国式现代化建设新局面提供坚强财政 保障——访财政部党组书记、部长蓝佛安 新华社记者申铖 财政事关治国安邦、强国富民，在推动高质量发展和中国式现代化建设中承担重要职责。党的二十届四 中全会审议通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》，对发挥积极财 政政策作用提出明确要求。 "十五五"时期如何发挥积极财政政策作用？围绕建设强大国内市场、加快构建高水平社会主义市场经济 体制方面，财政将如何发力？新华社记者采访了财政部党组书记、部长蓝佛安。 因时因势施策，不断深化对财政宏观调控的规律性认识 问：科学的宏观调控、有效的政府治理是发挥社会主义市场经济体制优势的内在要求。"十四五"以来， 我国在加强财政宏观调控、实施财政政策方面，进展和成效如何？ 党的二十届四中全会擘画了中国未来五年的发展蓝图。我们要以改革的思维、创新的精神，完整准确全 面贯彻全会部署，统筹生财、聚财、用财之道，有力有效实施积极的财政政策，为以中国式现代化全面 推进强国建设、民族复兴伟业提供坚强财政保障。 把准形势任务，有力有效实施积极的财政政策 问：迈向"十五五"，党 ...

Economic Growth and Projections - October economic data indicates a slowdown in growth, with a projected Q4 GDP growth rate of 4.2%[1] - The annual GDP growth target of around 5% is expected to be achieved, with policies focusing on implementation[1] - Anticipated budget deficit rate for next year is expected to remain at 4%[1] Consumer Spending and Retail - Retail sales growth in October decreased to 2.9%, slightly better than the market expectation of 2.8%[2] - Durable goods consumption showed mixed results, with communication equipment sales rising to 23.2% while home appliances fell by 14.6%[2] - The "Double Eleven" shopping festival did not generate as much excitement as in previous years, indicating weak consumer demand[1] Industrial Production and Investment - Industrial production growth fell to 4.9%, below the expected 5.5%, influenced by a holiday effect[5] - Fixed asset investment growth declined significantly to -1.7%, lower than the market expectation of -0.8%[3] - Real estate investment continued to weaken, with a year-on-year decline of 14.7% in October[3] Employment and Inflation - The urban unemployment rate improved slightly to 5.1%, better than the expected 5.2%[5] - October CPI inflation rate increased to 0.2%, surpassing the market expectation of -0.1%[6] External Demand and Trade - Export growth turned negative at -1.1% in October, influenced by high base effects and holiday timing[7] - The contribution of net exports to GDP is expected to decline, with a forecasted export growth drop to 3.0% next year[11]

习近平总书记指出："扩大内需既关系经济稳定，也关系经济安全，不是权宜之计，而是战略之举。" 福建泉州蟳埔村，这个曾经靠海吃海的小渔村，如今依托千年簪花习俗，走出一条文商旅融合的新路 子，去年接待游客超850万人次，带动旅游收入超18亿元； 湖北潜江生态龙虾城，数十家不同品牌的店铺人气火爆，从特色餐饮延伸到美食工坊、非遗展演、研学 基地等业态，每年吸引游客200余万人次； 四川成都春熙路，特色大屏影像吸引众多游客合影，各大国际品牌店铺云集，丰富消费者购物体验，目 前已有数百家首店落地…… 近日，本报记者赴福建、湖北、四川调研，供给向新向优、需求向活向旺的场景处处可见。各地加大力 度实施扩大内需战略，采取更加有力的措施，大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求，更 好发挥超大规模市场优势，推动高质量发展取得新的更大成效。 超大规模市场潜力充分释放 规模稳步扩大、结构持续优化。各地统筹扩大内需和深化供给侧结构性改革，促进消费和投资更好结 合，推动国内大市场潜能不断释放。 湖北武汉经济技术开发区岚图汽车总装车间，在机械臂和工人协同配合下，总装线上的半成品汽车经过 多道工序顺利下线。 "每118秒，就有一辆整车下 ...

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant decline in consumer spending in China, driven by stagnant income growth, high debt levels, and increasing living costs, leading to a cautious consumer sentiment [1][3][7] Economic Indicators - In the first half of 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by only 3.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points compared to the same period in 2024 [1] - Major consumer sectors such as automobiles and home appliances experienced a slowdown, with automobile sales growing by just 1.8%, down 3.7 percentage points from the previous year, and home appliance sales declining by 2.5%, widening by 1.3 percentage points [1] - The consumer confidence index for Q2 2025 was reported at 95.3, below the neutral line of 100, marking a five-year low [5] Consumer Behavior - A survey indicated that 65% of respondents plan to reduce non-essential spending in the next six months, and 83% intend to postpone large purchases [1] - The actual growth rate of per capita disposable income for urban residents was only 2.8% in the first half of 2025, down from 5.7% in 2019, while the unemployment rate remained around 5.3% [3] Debt and Financial Pressure - The household leverage ratio reached 63.4% in Q1 2025, with some cities reporting debt-to-income ratios exceeding 3:1, indicating significant financial strain on families [3][4] - Rising costs in healthcare and education are further squeezing household budgets, with healthcare spending increasing by 8.6% year-on-year [4] Impact on Industries - The sluggish consumer spending is adversely affecting sectors such as retail, dining, and tourism, with restaurant revenues growing by only 2.5% year-on-year, significantly lower than pre-pandemic levels [7] - The vacancy rate for retail spaces in some second and third-tier cities has reached as high as 30%, indicating a challenging environment for brick-and-mortar businesses [7] Future Outlook - The article suggests that merely calling for increased domestic demand will not suffice; substantial improvements in income levels and distribution are necessary to stimulate consumer spending [8] - Long-term economic adjustments and reforms are essential to enhance consumer confidence and spending capacity, with the potential for improvement as urbanization and income distribution reforms take effect [12]

Core Insights - The primary focus should be on expanding domestic demand, particularly consumer demand, as a priority for economic growth [1] - The main contradiction in China's economic operation has shifted from the supply side to the demand side, making effective demand expansion crucial for stable economic growth [1] - Current weak consumer demand is attributed to both short-term shocks and long-term structural issues, with insufficient social security and unstable consumer expectations being the main factors [1] Summary by Sections Economic Strategy - Zhang Jun's emphasis on prioritizing consumer demand is essential for achieving dynamic balance in total supply and demand at a higher level [1] - A stable and sustainable economic growth environment is necessary to address issues such as technological innovation, green transformation, and risk mitigation [1] Consumer Demand - The current state of consumer demand is weak due to various factors, including insufficient social security and low consumer confidence [1] - Service consumption is lacking, which is linked to both inadequate support levels and supply-side capabilities [1] Policy Recommendations - Policies to effectively release consumer potential should focus on three areas: counter-cyclical consumption policies, optimizing support for commodity consumption, and enhancing support for service consumption [2] - Increased subsidies in sectors like education, healthcare, elderly care, and childbirth are recommended to boost consumer willingness and capacity [2]

Group 1: Research Views - The stock market showed a strong upward trend throughout the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten - year high and the ChiNext Index rising over 2%. Nearly 4,000 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets closed higher, and over a hundred stocks hit the daily limit. The trading volume on that day was 2.07 trillion yuan. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.73%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.78%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.55% [1]. - The recent meeting between Chinese and US leaders in South Korea is conducive to the improvement of China's total demand and the valuation of A - share technology stocks compared to US stocks. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China focuses on several main lines, which boosts market confidence and is expected to continue the structured market. However, the valuation of the Sci - tech Innovation Index is at a historical extreme, so be cautious about chasing high prices. In the short term, after the release of the third - quarter reports, the market may refocus on fundamentals. The cumulative year - on - year revenue growth rate of non - financial A - shares in the third - quarter reports was +0.3%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent was +1.65%. ROE (TTM) was 6.5%, still in a low - level oscillation range [1]. - For treasury bond futures, the 10 - year main contract fell 0.01%, while the 30 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts remained basically stable. The central bank conducted 190 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on November 13, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%. The net injection was 92.8 billion yuan. DR001 was 1.32% and DR007 was 1.49%. The central bank's resumption of treasury bond trading strengthens the expectation of reasonable and sufficient funds, which is beneficial to the bond market. With the increase in local government bonds and the implementation of 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments, the economic outlook in the fourth quarter is stable. The pressure to achieve the annual economic growth target is not great, so the short - term necessity for the central bank to cut interest rates is low. Affected by the stock - bond "seesaw" effect, the bond market is expected to continue the oscillation pattern [1][2]. Group 2: Daily Price Changes Stock Index Futures - IH rose from 3,042.8 to 3,068.8, an increase of 26.0 points or 0.85% [3]. - IF rose from 4,628.0 to 4,677.0, an increase of 49.0 points or 1.06% [3]. - IC rose from 7,155.2 to 7,269.0, an increase of 113.8 points or 1.59% [3]. - IM rose from 7,369.8 to 7,478.4, an increase of 108.6 points or 1.47% [3]. Stock Indexes - The Shanghai 50 Index rose from 3,044.3 to 3,073.7, an increase of 29.4 points or 0.96% [3]. - The CSI 300 Index rose from 4,645.9 to 4,702.1, an increase of 56.2 points or 1.21% [3]. - The CSI 500 Index rose from 7,243.2 to 7,355.3, an increase of 112.0 points or 1.55% [3]. - The CSI 1000 Index rose from 7,486.4 to 7,590.6, an increase of 104.2 points or 1.39% [3]. Treasury Bond Futures - TS fell from 102.47 to 102.46, a decrease of 0.01 points or - 0.01% [3]. - TF fell from 105.97 to 105.89, a decrease of 0.085 points or - 0.08% [3]. - T fell from 108.52 to 108.41, a decrease of 0.11 points or - 0.10% [3]. - TL fell from 116.45 to 116.13, a decrease of 0.32 points or - 0.27% [3]. Group 3: Market News - The China Financial Regulatory Administration will soon release the newly revised "Administrative Measures for Commercial Bank Merger and Acquisition Loans" to support the mergers, reorganizations, and transformation and upgrading of various enterprises, including science and technology innovation enterprises. The administration is also collaborating with other departments to study policies for the high - quality development of science and technology insurance [4]. Group 4: Chart Analysis Stock Index Futures - The report presents the historical price trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC main contracts, as well as the historical trends of their monthly basis [6][7][9]. Treasury Bond Futures - It shows the historical price trends of treasury bond futures main contracts, treasury bond spot yields, the historical trends of basis for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, the historical trends of inter - period spreads for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures, cross - variety spreads, and capital interest rates [13][14][18][19]. Exchange Rates - The report includes the historical trends of the central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB, the euro against the RMB, 1 - month and 3 - month forward exchange rates of the US dollar and euro against the RMB, the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, and US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate [22][23][26][27]. Group 5: Member Introduction - Zhu Jintao, a master of economics from Jilin University, is the current director of the macro - finance research department at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with futures practice qualification number F3060829 and futures trading consultation qualification number Z0015271 [29]. - Wang Dongying, an index analyst with a master's degree from Columbia University, mainly tracks stock index futures, and is responsible for macro - fundamental quantification, key industry sector research, index earnings report analysis, and market capital tracking. His futures practice qualification number is F03087149, and his futures trading consultation qualification number is Z0019537 [29].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of the consumption sector in China's economic development, highlighting the goal of significantly increasing the resident consumption rate and enhancing domestic demand as a primary driver of economic growth during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [2][3]. Group 1: Importance of the Consumption Sector - The "Suggestions" state that a strong domestic market is the strategic foundation for Chinese modernization, advocating for the expansion of domestic demand and the promotion of consumption [3]. - China's resident consumption rate is currently at 40%, which is lower than that of developed countries like the US (over 60%) and Japan (over 50%), indicating significant room for improvement [3][5]. Group 2: Institutional Improvements and Market Environment - The article discusses the need to eliminate barriers to the establishment of a unified national market, addressing issues such as unfair competition and inconsistent quality standards [5]. - The implementation of policies to enhance consumer rights and improve the market environment is expected to boost consumer experience and expand the consumption market [5][6]. Group 3: Investment in People - The "Suggestions" highlight the importance of promoting high-quality employment, improving income distribution, and enhancing social security systems to support consumer demand [6]. - Various initiatives aimed at increasing consumer capacity and willingness, such as childcare subsidies and consumption vouchers, are anticipated to positively impact consumer spending [6][8]. Group 4: Investment in Goods and Services - The article notes the need for increased investment in consumer-related infrastructure and services to improve consumer experience [15]. - The current service consumption rate in China is about 46%, which is lower than in the US (69%), UK (62%), and Japan (56%), suggesting potential for growth in service consumption as GDP rises [15][16]. Group 5: International Trade and Market Expansion - The "Suggestions" advocate for expanding international trade and investment cooperation, which could enhance the scale of the consumption market and facilitate the internationalization of high-quality domestic brands [18][19]. - The increase in inbound tourism, with 26.94 million foreign visitors in 2024 (up 96% year-on-year), reflects the potential for expanding the domestic consumption market through greater openness [18][19].

习近平总书记指出："扩大内需既关系经济稳定，也关系经济安全，不是权宜之计，而是战略之举。" 福建泉州蟳埔村，这个曾经靠海吃海的小渔村，如今依托千年簪花习俗，走出一条文商旅融合的新路 子，去年接待游客超850万人次，带动旅游收入超18亿元； 湖北潜江生态龙虾城，数十家不同品牌的店铺人气火爆，从特色餐饮延伸到美食工坊、非遗展演、研学 基地等业态，每年吸引游客200余万人次； 四川成都春熙路，特色大屏影像吸引众多游客合影，各大国际品牌店铺云集，丰富消费者购物体验，目 前已有数百家首店落地…… 近日，本报记者赴福建、湖北、四川调研，供给向新向优、需求向活向旺的场景处处可见。各地加大力 度实施扩大内需战略，采取更加有力的措施，大力提振消费、提高投资效益，全方位扩大国内需求，更 好发挥超大规模市场优势，推动高质量发展取得新的更大成效。 超大规模市场潜力充分释放 开发更加多样化的场景，以新供给激发新活力。各地主动适应消费结构变化，着力增强供需适配性，积 极推动经济扩容"量的优势"、提升"质的优势"。 湖北武汉经济技术开发区岚图汽车总装车间，在机械臂和工人协同配合下，总装线上的半成品汽车经过 多道工序顺利下线。 "每118秒 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the strategic importance of expanding domestic demand for economic stability and security, highlighting various regions' efforts to boost consumption and investment for high-quality development [1] Group 1: Economic Development and Consumer Trends - Quanzhou's Xunpu Village has transformed from a fishing village to a tourism hub, attracting over 8.5 million visitors and generating more than 1.8 billion yuan in tourism revenue last year [1] - Wuhan's Lantu Automobile factory produces a vehicle every 118 seconds, showcasing the integration of robotics in manufacturing, with an annual capacity of 150,000 electric vehicles [2] - Sichuan's retail sales reached 2.12 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of this year, reflecting a 5.8% year-on-year growth [3] Group 2: Policy and Strategic Initiatives - The Fujian provincial government prioritizes expanding domestic demand as a key economic strategy, focusing on enhancing consumer confidence and market vitality [4] - Hubei's government emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption as a means to stabilize growth, aiming to create high-quality supply to meet new demand [8] Group 3: Innovative Consumption and New Business Models - Chengdu's East Suburb Memory district has become a trendy destination, attracting over 50,000 daily visitors and generating nearly 100 million yuan in revenue since summer [5] - The Pingtan Shell Hill Head Museum has seen a 5.1% increase in visitors, with tourism revenue growing by 13.6% to 12.028 billion yuan in 2024 [6] - Hubei's Tang City scenic area has successfully implemented night tourism, with 60% of visitors coming at night, contributing to a vibrant nighttime economy [7] Group 4: Investment and Infrastructure Development - The recycling economy industry park in Laohekou has achieved a production value of over 13 billion yuan in the first seven months of this year, reflecting an 18% year-on-year growth [10] - Sichuan's government has launched initiatives to attract new flagship stores, with over 1,000 events planned to stimulate consumption [11]

l - 十周四峰 \ 名词卡片 "坚持扩大内需这个战略基点,坚持 惠民生和促消费、投资于物和投资于人紧 密结合,以新需求引领新供给,以新供给 创造新需求,促进消费和投资、供给和需 求良性互动,增强国内大循环内生动力和 可靠性。" "十五五"规划建议 释义 投资于物是指对实物资产进行投资,比如基础 设施、房屋建筑、机器设备等,可以为经济社会发 展夯实物质技术基础。 投资于人是指对全人群、全生命周期人的能力 提升和潜力开发的投入,比如育幼、养老、健康、 教育、技能培训等。 报《普的一十届加由令会/建议、学习辅导百向》 延伸阅读 一、长期以来投资于物对我国经济持续快速发展发挥了重要作用。 多年来，我国通过持续投资于物，实物资本得到有效积累，生产和供给能力不断增强，社会生产力水 平持续提高，有效推动了技术进步和产业发展，有力支撑了新型工业化、信息化、城镇化、农业现代化同 步发展。同时，对物的投资是总需求的重要组成部分，拉动了经济增长，创造了大量就业，带动了居民财 富积累和消费能力提升，并且与民生相关的"物"的投资还直接提高公共服务水平，保障和改善了民生。此 外，近年来对粮食储备、能源基地、应急物资、产业备份等的投资， ...