以下文章来源于智谷趋势Trend ，作者碎叶冬青 剑书 智谷趋势Trend . 新中产的首席财富顾问 作者：碎叶冬青 剑书 来源：智谷趋势Trend 特殊时刻，传来非常信号。 5月26日，中办、国办联合印发了一份重磅文件《关于完善中国特色现代企业制度的意见》，再 次强调 推动企业健全工资合理增长机制 ……推动上市公司开展中长期激励，制定稳定、长期的 现金分红政策。 事实上，从去年年底以来， 中央就密集发出"涨工资"的信号 。 2个月前，在中办、国办联合发布的《提振消费专项行动方案》中，"城乡居民增收促进行动"被列 为八大行动之首。 国家频频强调，信号很不寻常。为什么当下我们要千方百计增加居民收入，背后隐藏着怎样的深 远考量？ 这 是不是 意味着， 工资要全面上涨了？ 01 首先，提高居民收入对提振消费而言，极为必要。 目前，拉动经济的"三架马车"里头，出口面临很大的不确定性，投资的油门也差不多轰到顶了， 增量有限，只有消费这辆"马车"还有很大的发挥空间。 2024年，全国居民人均消费支出28227元，还不到美国的九分之一。 去年年底举办的中央经济工作会议，就为2025年定调掌舵，中国经济面临的最大内部挑战，就 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market has shown remarkable performance in 2023, leading global markets with significant gains in major indices, driven by low valuations and high growth potential [1][3][8]. Market Performance - As of May 27, the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index have both increased by over 15% year-to-date, with the former peaking at over 30% and the latter at over 48% [1][3]. - Half of the top 100 equity funds have over 20% exposure to Hong Kong stocks, with more than 30% of these funds holding over 30% in Hong Kong equities [3][4]. Fund Performance - Seven equity funds have reported over 50% net asset value growth this year, all of which have significant holdings in Hong Kong stocks [4]. - Notable funds include Guangfa Growth Navigator with a 63.43% increase and over 31% of its portfolio in Hong Kong stocks, and Huitianfu Hong Kong Advantage Select with a 63.27% increase and over 86% in Hong Kong equities [5]. Investment Value - Despite recent valuation recovery, Hong Kong stocks remain in a relatively reasonable range after three years of decline, with a TTM P/E ratio of 10.6 and a P/B ratio of 0.9, indicating high investment value [8]. - The Hong Kong consumer sector is characterized by low valuations and high growth potential, with the Hong Kong Consumer Index P/E at only 21 times, significantly lower than major global consumer indices [8][9]. Sector Trends - The market is witnessing a shift towards new consumption trends, with Hong Kong stocks focusing on emerging consumer sectors that have shown strong performance [9]. - Policies promoting technology innovation and domestic demand are expected to create ongoing investment opportunities in sectors such as AI, new energy vehicles, and biopharmaceuticals [8].

5月28日上午，由北京商报社、《中外企业文化》杂志社主办的"2025深蓝媒体智库年度论坛"主论坛在北京国际饭店举行。 主论坛上，北京日报社副总编辑李学梅出席并致辞。她表示，专业媒体在促进国内消费进程中肩负着特殊使命。深蓝智库的建设顺应了用户对财经、媒体、 资讯、信息、服务的新需求，是媒体融合发展转型的积极探索。 2025深蓝媒体智库年度论坛以"创新消费力 统一大市场"为主题，首次采用"主题+专题"模式，同步设置"未来旅游""酒业文化""餐饮产业"三场专题论坛，聚 焦旅游业、酒业、餐饮产业的高质量发展路径，并重磅发布6份深蓝智库年度报告，涵盖消费金融、人形机器人、文化出海等热点领域。来自产学研媒政各 界的数百位嘉宾齐聚一堂，共同探索提振消费、激活民营经济、推动创新融合的实践方案。 李学梅在致辞中表示，此次论坛的举办不仅为消费市场的高质量发展提供了思想碰撞与实践指南，为各界精英搭建了一个交流思想、分享经验、共商发展的 高端平台，更通过"主题+专题"模式、跨界资源整合、智库成果落地等诸多形式，深入探讨了消费、旅游、酒业、餐饮等领域的前沿热点问题，为推动各产 业高质量发展提供了有益的思路与建议，彰显了媒体智库在新时代 ...

盘面回顾：全天窄幅震荡，交易量略有萎缩，消费和医药反弹。周二 A 股全天窄幅震荡，振幅仅 19 点，交易量为较周一出现一定萎缩。市场表现整体较为清淡，消费和医药成为继银行之后相对抗跌 的板块。周二 31 个一级行业涨跌互现，领涨板块包括纺织服饰、医药生物、美容护理、环保、房地 产。下跌板块中跌幅靠前的是有色金属、电子、汽车、机械设备、通信。 风险提示：关税冲击的后续影响，美联储降息延后，海外经济衰退超预期，国内经济复苏不及预 期，政策执行不及预期等。 热点板块：6 月可能仍是事件驱动的主题性行情，低位板块如消费、医药、调整较为充分的注科技 成长可关注。1）促进消费扩大内需是 2025 年的重点任务，虽然大消费方向年报和一季报表现相对平 淡，但市场对后续政策对冲仍有期待，这将是 2025 年大消费方向的重要看点。关注乳制品、IP 消费、 休闲旅游、医美等基本面景气度较高的板块。2）机器人国产化和走进老百姓生活依然是 2025 年比较确 定的趋势，机器人产品将从人形机器人向四足机器人、功能型机器人扩展。以此带来的传感器、控制 器、灵巧手等板块的阶段性机会将会反复出现。5-6 月关注机器人格斗大赛的进展。3）半导体 ...

中国银河（601881）证券研报指出，当前时点基础化工行业估值处在2014年以来偏低水平，具有中长期 配置价值。供给端方面，近几年化工行业资本开支及在建产能增速趋于放缓，但预计存量产能及在建产 能仍需时间消化。需求端方面，2025年随政策刺激效果逐渐显现、终端产业回暖动能逐步转强，内需潜 力有望充分释放。看好2025年化工品的结构性机会及行业估值修复空间，建议关注以下三条投资主线： 一是，全方位扩大内需，把握成长确定性机会；二是，培育新质生产力，新材料正当时；三是，部分资 源品景气有望维持高位，关注规模扩张带来的成长性。 ...

投资和消费均属于内需，都是稳增长的利器。但投资和消费的功能有所不同，投资最终可以形成资本，增加供给或扩大产能，消费则是用来满足人 们的物质和精神的需求；尽管投资和消费都可以贡献GDP，但在财政资源有限的情况下，需要比较投资和消费的乘数效应来决定如何分配用于投资 或用于消费的财政支出比例。时至今日，在扩内需的大框架下，学界对于稳增长政策应该更侧重于投资，还是更侧重于消费存在一定争议。 笔者认为，不同的经济发展阶段、不同的外部环境、人均GDP水平、不同的居民收入结构、人口老龄化水平和城市化率等，决定了政策刺激的方向 和力度。当前形势下把促消费放在首位无可厚非，而且中央经济工作会议也明确要大力提振消费。以下从四个维度来论述促投资或促消费政策的孰 重孰轻及如何发力。 一、从经济大循环的角度看—— 应该促投资还是促消费 以下文章来源于中国宏观经济论坛 CMF ，作者李迅雷 中国宏观经济论坛 CMF . 创立于2006年，由中国人民大学国发院、经济学院、中诚信国际信用评级有限公司联合主办。依托人大经济学一级学科排名全国第一的优秀研究力量，诚 邀社会知名专家，集中从事中国宏观经济动态和重大经济问题研究，定期发布分析与预测报 ...

Group 1: Current State of Service Consumption in China - In 2023, service consumption accounted for 45.2% of total consumption in China, significantly lower than the US (67.5%), Japan (56.2%), and Germany (50.5%) [6] - China's per capita service consumption was approximately $2,317 in 2023, only 6% of the US level and about 20% of other major economies [8] - The total service consumption in China was about $3.3 trillion in 2023, which is only 26% of the US service consumption [7] Group 2: Factors Affecting Service Consumption Growth - Cultural factors lead to a lower average consumption tendency in China, with residents preferring savings over immediate consumption [25] - The quality of service supply in China is still developing, affecting consumer confidence and willingness to spend [28] - Urban-rural disparities result in lower overall service consumption, with urban residents spending 7-8 percentage points more on service consumption than rural residents [29] Group 3: Future Growth Potential and Recommendations - The Chinese government aims to promote service consumption growth in areas like catering, home services, and cultural entertainment, with a focus on sustainable development [33] - The health industry in China is projected to exceed $9 trillion by 2024, indicating significant growth potential in health-related services [48] - Financial services need to expand their coverage to support service consumption, with a focus on innovative and personalized financial products [56]

Group 1: Current State of Service Consumption in China - In 2023, service consumption accounted for 45.2% of total consumption in China, significantly lower than the US (67.5%), Japan (56.2%), and Germany (50.5%) [6] - China's per capita service consumption was approximately $2,317 in 2023, only 6% of the US level and about 20% of other major economies [8] - The total service consumption in China was about $3.3 trillion in 2023, which is only 26% of the US service consumption [7] Group 2: Factors Affecting Service Consumption Growth - Cultural factors lead to lower consumption willingness in China, with a higher emphasis on saving compared to developed economies [25] - The quality of service supply in China is still developing, affecting consumer confidence and willingness to spend [28] - Urban-rural disparities result in lower overall service consumption, with urban residents spending 7-8 percentage points more on service consumption than rural residents [29] Group 3: Future Growth Potential and Recommendations - The Chinese government aims to promote service consumption growth in areas like catering, home services, and cultural entertainment, with a focus on sustainable development [33] - The health industry in China is projected to exceed $9 trillion by 2024, indicating significant growth potential in health-related services [48] - The sports industry is expected to grow rapidly, with an average annual growth rate of over 13% from 2025 to 2030 [47]

Group 1 - In 2025, China's economy will enter a year of overlapping cycles, including a new economic development cycle, geopolitical cycle, and technological transformation cycle, leading to anxiety in industries such as clothing, dyeing, automotive manufacturing, bakeries, and cultural companies [3] - The artificial intelligence sector is identified as a new economic growth point, with significant development observed during visits to 60 enterprises [3] - The need to enhance consumer confidence and expand income sources is highlighted as a crucial task for revitalizing domestic demand [3] Group 2 - New job opportunities are emerging in the live streaming and online gaming industries, creating a new employment landscape [3] - The manufacturing sector is experiencing profound changes in talent structure, with a significant increase in demand for technical personnel, indicating a talent gap of 30 million in new types of manufacturing roles [3] - The transformation of vocational education systems is emphasized as a new market opportunity in 2025 [3] Group 3 - 2025 is projected to be the inaugural year for industry large models in China, with significant competition and development in this area [5] - Companies like Baidu Smart Cloud are working on building new foundational infrastructure for large models, which will reshape the information infrastructure of manufacturing and service industries [5] - The zero-carbon economy is becoming a new focus for future competition, with practical examples observed in zero-carbon ports and restaurants [5] Group 4 - The importance of creating demand and integrating capabilities is stressed, with a call for companies to develop products that excite consumers [5] - The concept of "waste" as a form of productivity is introduced, suggesting that consumers are willing to invest time in enjoyable experiences [5]

Group 1: Economic Environment and Challenges - The current international situation is evolving significantly, with increasing competition in technology and industry, leading to heightened external uncertainties [2] - Trade protectionism is on the rise, increasing export pressures on China, particularly in industries heavily reliant on exports to the U.S. such as machinery and electronics [3] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded its global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% to 2.8% due to ongoing trade policy uncertainties [3] Group 2: Supply Chain and Manufacturing Risks - There are two major risks for China's manufacturing sector: decoupling and technology blockade, as developed countries attempt to reduce reliance on Chinese supply chains [4] - Developed countries are implementing strategies to attract low-end manufacturing away from China, while simultaneously restricting high-end manufacturing technology from leaving [4] Group 3: Financial Market Volatility - Global financial markets are experiencing increased volatility due to economic and political uncertainties, which may exacerbate capital flow fluctuations in China [5] - Financial sanctions and restrictions on capital markets are making it more difficult for Chinese companies to secure financing [5] Group 4: Fiscal Policy Response - A more proactive fiscal policy is deemed essential for enhancing the certainty of high-quality economic development in response to external shocks [6] - The Chinese government has a relatively low debt-to-GDP ratio of 67.5%, providing significant room for fiscal policy expansion compared to G20 and G7 countries [8] Group 5: Implementation of Fiscal Policies - The focus of fiscal policy should be on enhancing social welfare, promoting consumption, and increasing investment efficiency to stimulate domestic demand [9] - Coordination between fiscal and monetary policies is crucial for effective macroeconomic management, ensuring that government investments lead to increased social investments [11]