Core Viewpoint - The bond market is currently facing pressure due to the strong performance of the A-share market, leading to a diversion of funds from bonds to stocks, which is expected to continue in the short term [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 18, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3700 points, closing at 3727.29 points on August 19, with a slight decline of 0.02% [1]. - The trading volume in the A-share market reached 2.75 trillion yuan, marking the third-highest in history [6]. - Foreign institutional investors showed significant interest in A-shares, with net buying exceeding two times the average for the past four weeks [6]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The 30-year government bond ETF fell over 1% on August 18, with yields surpassing 2.1% [3]. - Goldman Sachs predicts that the 30-year bond yield could rise to between 2.2% and 2.3% due to the speculative nature of current bondholders [1][9]. - The bond market is experiencing redemption pressure, with significant trading stress reported on August 18 [1][9]. Group 3: Economic Indicators - Recent economic data indicates a slowdown, with fixed asset investment growth dropping to 1.6% from 2.8% [12]. - The real estate sector is showing negative growth in sales, new starts, and investment, contributing to the overall economic slowdown [12]. - Despite the economic challenges, the central bank maintains a stance of moderate liquidity, focusing on structural economic optimization rather than total policy adjustments [12]. Group 4: Investment Trends - There is a notable shift of funds from bonds to equities, driven by low deposit rates and bond yields, making the opportunity cost of investing in stocks lower [9]. - The insurance sector is increasingly entering the equity market, with significant inflows expected in the coming years [10][11]. - Public and private equity funds are seeing new issuance levels higher than last year's average, indicating a potential positive cycle in the equity market [10].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current financial landscape, highlighting a tight funding environment, a slight decline in long-term bond yields, and the impact of central bank actions on the stock and bond markets [2][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The central bank conducted a net injection of 3,457 billion yuan through reverse repos, with a total of 5,803 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos initiated [2][4]. - The funding rates showed an upward trend due to a tight funding environment, with DR001 around 1.47% and DR007 at approximately 1.55% [2][4]. - The stock market experienced slight declines amidst these monetary policy adjustments, reflecting a "stock-bond seesaw" effect [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The youth unemployment rate reached 17.8% in July, the highest in 11 months, compared to 14.5% in June, indicating growing economic challenges for younger demographics [4]. - The article notes that while housing prices are at new lows and consumer prices are low, the stock market is at new highs, suggesting a complex economic environment [4]. Group 3: Bond Market Performance - The bond market showed cautious sentiment, with the 10-year government bond yield peaking at 1.783% before retreating to around 1.766% [4]. - The article highlights a specific bond (250210) with a high borrowing concentration of 44%, making it susceptible to being "squeezed" in the market [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the given report. 2. Core View of the Report Since July, the stock - bond "seesaw" effect has become more prominent, with the equity market rising and the bond market weakening. The current market is mainly driven by policy expectations, market sentiment, and institutional behavior, and there is a certain deviation from the fundamentals. In the short - term, the appropriate support from the central bank, the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies, and the buying behavior of allocation disks at key points may form the potential boundary for interest rate hikes. In the long - term, asset pricing will return to the fundamental logic. It is expected that 1.80% may be the temporary ceiling for the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate, and currently, the interest rate may be in the ceiling - building stage. The interest rate does not have the risk of a trend - upward increase [2][27][47]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 From the Stock - Bond "Seesaw" - Since July, the stock - bond and commodity - bond "seesaw" effects have been significant. In early August, there was a short - term "stock - bond double - bull" situation, which then returned to the "seesaw" pattern. On August 18, the Shanghai Composite Index closed above 3700 points, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose by 2.5BP to 1.77% [10]. - The reasons for the more prominent "seesaw" effect recently are: the low and stable capital interest rate restricts the bond - buying power; the domestic economy is stable with progress, and the policy has a certain tolerance for capital - market fluctuations; incremental policies boost market risk appetite, and the bond market is more sensitive to negative news [13]. - Historically, in the short - term, the stock market rise is based on policy expectations, driving asset re - allocation and changes in bond - market institutional behavior. In the long - term, both stock and bond pricing return to the fundamental logic. The two long - lasting "seesaw" periods (2016 - 2018, 2020) were accompanied by fundamental improvements, while the shorter ones (2022 end, 2024 Q3) were more about policy expectations and "strong expectations" of fundamental repair [14][17]. 3.2 Interest Rate "Has a Floor" The market generally believes that the downward space for the bond market is limited. The reasons are: the expectation of marginal improvement in the fundamentals is strong, reducing the urgency for monetary policy to strengthen, and the probability of the capital interest rate breaking through downward is low; the buying power of allocation disks has weakened compared to last year. Some rural commercial banks may have floating losses in their OCI accounts, and insurance companies may reduce bond allocation and increase equity investment [3][20]. 3.3 Where is the Temporary "Ceiling" of the Interest Rate? - **"Negative Feedback" Concerns and the Central Bank's Timely Support**: This year, the bond market has experienced several rounds of rising concerns about redemption "negative feedback". Whenever the bond interest rate reaches a temporary high or the selling power of trading disks such as funds increases, the central bank will increase its open - market operations within 1 - 4 days. For example, in mid - March and late July, the central bank increased reverse - repurchase operations to support the bond market [28]. - **Enhanced Coordination between Monetary and Fiscal Policies**: In the short - term, it is mainly reflected in coordinating with the concentrated issuance of government bonds. For example, on August 8, the central bank carried out a 7000 - billion - yuan 3 - month term repurchase operation to maintain liquidity. In the long - term, considering the balance and sustainability of fiscal interest payments and revenues, the coordination of the two policies is reasonable [36]. - **Support from the Buying Power of Allocation Disks at Key Points**: Although the strength of allocation disks has weakened this year, when the bond market rises to key points, the buying power of allocation disks such as insurance and rural commercial banks will increase, suppressing the adjustment space. It is expected that the reduction of insurance's predetermined interest rate in September may increase the bond - allocation space [43]. - **The Interest Rate May Have Reached a Temporary Ceiling**: On August 18, the bond - market adjustment intensified. The yields of 1Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bonds rose to 1.39%, 1.64%, 1.79%, and 2.11% respectively. It is expected that 1.80% may be the temporary ceiling for the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate. In the short - term, the entry of allocation disks and the central bank's support will limit the bond - market adjustment. In the long - term, due to the structural repair pressure on the fundamentals, the interest rate does not have the risk of a trend - upward increase [47].

Market Overview - The bond market experienced an unexpected correction last week, with an overall balanced and loose funding environment. The weighted average of DR007 on August 15 was 1.48%, and the yield on 10-year government bonds closed at 1.75% [2] - In the stock market, major A-share indices surged, with the ChiNext Index, STAR 50 Index, and Shenzhen Component Index recording weekly gains of 8.58%, 5.53%, and 4.55% respectively. The communication, electronics, and non-bank financial sectors led the gains [2] Product Performance - The number of underperforming products remains low, with 25,210 public wealth management products in existence as of August 17, 2025. Among these, 141 products had a cumulative net value below 1, resulting in a comprehensive break-even rate of 0.56% for bank wealth management [3] - The break-even rates for equity and mixed wealth management products were 35.71% and 4.8% respectively, while fixed income public wealth management products had a break-even rate of 0.28% [3] - Fixed income products with 1-2 year and over 3-year terms had slightly higher break-even rates of 0.71% and 0.57% respectively [3] New Product Issuance - A total of 433 wealth management products were issued by 32 wealth management companies from August 11 to August 15, with joint-stock bank wealth management companies leading in issuance. Everbright Wealth issued 39 products, followed by Xinyin Wealth with 30 and Xinyin Wealth with 29 [4] - The newly issued products were primarily R2 (medium-low risk), closed-end net value type, and fixed income public products, with only 4 mixed products issued, accounting for 1.8%. No new equity or financial derivative products were launched [7] Product Pricing and Strategy - Product pricing saw a decline in most terms, except for 3-6 month and over 3-year products, which experienced a rebound. The pricing for 1-2 year and 2-3 year products fell below 2.80%, while products with a term of less than 1 month dropped below 2% [7] - Notably, Xinyin Wealth launched a fixed income enhancement product with a minimum holding period of 90 days and an innovative investment strategy that combines debt assets with quantitative volatility strategies [9] Yield Performance - Fixed income wealth management yields declined, with an average net value growth rate of 0.0511% over the past week. Mixed and equity products had average net value growth rates of 0.2075% and 1.354% respectively [10] - Among fixed income products, those with over 3-year terms had the highest average net value growth rate of 0.0794%, while products with a term of less than 1 month had the lowest at 0.0363% [10] Industry Trends - The scale of bank wealth management saw an unexpected increase of approximately 2 trillion yuan in July, reaching 32.67 trillion yuan, driven by the maturity of high-interest deposits and the relative attractiveness of wealth management products [16] - The growth in non-bank deposits significantly contributed to the increase in wealth management scale, with cash management and short-term fixed income products being the primary beneficiaries [16] - In August, the wealth management scale is expected to exceed 33 trillion yuan, with an annual target of 33.5 trillion yuan [16] - Last week, 16 new ESG-themed wealth management products were launched, indicating a rapid expansion of thematic wealth management offerings [17]

Market Overview - The bond market experienced an unexpected correction last week, with an overall balanced and loose funding environment. The weighted average of DR007 on August 15 was 1.48%, and the yield on 10-year government bonds closed at 1.75% [2] - In the stock market, major A-share indices surged, with the ChiNext Index, STAR 50 Index, and Shenzhen Component Index recording weekly gains of 8.58%, 5.53%, and 4.55% respectively. The communication, electronics, and non-bank financial sectors led the gains [2] Product Performance - The number of underperforming products remains low, with 25,210 public wealth management products in existence as of August 17, 2025. Among these, 141 products had a cumulative net value below 1, resulting in a comprehensive break-even rate of 0.56% for bank wealth management. The break-even rates for equity and mixed wealth management products were 35.71% and 4.8%, respectively, while fixed income products had a break-even rate of 0.28% [3] - The break-even rates for fixed income products of various maturities remained low, with 1-2 year and over 3-year products slightly higher at 0.71% and 0.57% respectively [3] New Product Issuance - A total of 433 wealth management products were issued by 32 wealth management companies from August 11 to August 15, with joint-stock banks leading in issuance. Everbright Wealth issued 39 products, followed by Xinyin Wealth with 30 and Xinyin Wealth with 29 [4] - The newly issued products were primarily R2 (medium-low risk), closed-end net value type, and fixed income public products, with only 4 mixed products issued, accounting for 1.8%. No new equity or financial derivative products were launched [4] - Pricing trends showed a decline in most product maturities, with 1-2 year and 2-3 year products dropping below 2.80%, while products with maturities over 3 years saw a significant rebound to 2.55% [4] Investment Strategies - Notably, Xinyin Wealth launched a fixed income enhancement product named "Fengli Xindong Ruixiang 3M Holding Period Target Red 3 (Jixing Version)", which is a "fixed income+" product with a risk level of three and a minimum holding period of 90 days. The product's performance benchmark is based on a combination of various indices and deposit rates [5] Yield Performance - Fixed income wealth management yields declined, with an average net value growth rate of 0.0511% over the past week. Mixed and equity products had average net value growth rates of 0.2075% and 1.354%, respectively. Among fixed income products, those with maturities over 3 years had the highest average net value growth rate of 0.0794% [6] - The average annualized yield for cash public wealth management products in RMB, USD, and AUD was 1.338%, 3.924%, and 2.87%, respectively [6] - The proportion of negative yield products increased, primarily due to fixed income products, with 9.94% of RMB public wealth management products experiencing negative returns last week [6][7] Industry Trends - The scale of bank wealth management grew unexpectedly by approximately 2 trillion RMB to 32.67 trillion RMB by the end of July 2025, driven by the maturity of high-interest deposits and the relative attractiveness of wealth management products compared to deposit rates [8] - In August, the wealth management scale is expected to exceed 33 trillion RMB, with an annual target of 33.5 trillion RMB [8] - Last week, 16 new ESG-themed wealth management products were launched, indicating a rapid expansion of thematic wealth management offerings [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report On August 18, the decline of Treasury bond futures was mainly due to the strong stock market attracting funds and sentiment. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3740 points, reaching a new high in nearly a decade, and the ChiNext Index also rose, significantly boosting risk appetite. Additionally, the tax - payment period led to a temporary tightness in the capital market. Despite the central bank's net injection of billions, the DR007 interest rate remained high, resulting in concentrated market selling pressure. The Ministry of Finance's decision to increase the supply of scarce bond types through "on - the - run sales" to improve secondary - market liquidity and trading spreads further exacerbated market concerns about rising interest rates, causing the 30 - year Treasury bond futures to decline by over 1% [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI monthly环比 was 0.40% and同比 was 0.00%; PPI monthly环比 was - 0.20% and同比 was - 3.60% [10]. - Social financing scale was 431.26 trillion yuan, with a环比 change of + 1.04 trillion yuan and a环比 change rate of + 0.24%; M2同比 was 8.80%, with a环比 increase of + 0.50% and a环比 change rate of + 6.02%; Manufacturing PMI was 49.30%, with a环比 decrease of - 0.40% and a环比 change rate of - 0.80% [10]. - The US dollar index was 98.15, with a环比 increase of + 0.30 and a环比 change rate of + 0.31%; The offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate was 7.1819, with a环比 change of + 0.000 and a环比 change rate of - 0.01%; SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.48, with a环比 increase of + 0.02 and a环比 change rate of + 1.23%; DR007 was 1.51, with a环比 increase of + 0.03 and a环比 change rate of + 2.34%; R007 was 1.56, with a环比 decrease of - 0.12 and a环比 change rate of - 7.38%; The 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.55, with a环比 increase of + 0.02 and a环比 change rate of + 1.27%; The AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.08, with a环比 increase of + 0.00 and a环比 change rate of + 1.27% [11]. 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market No specific content other than the mention of related charts (e.g., closing price trends, price change rates, etc.) is provided. 3. Overview of the Money Market Capital - In the first half of 2025, China's national fiscal operation was generally stable, with increased expenditure expansion and continuous optimization of the revenue - expenditure structure. General public budget revenue was 11.56 trillion yuan, a slight year - on - year decrease of 0.3%, and tax revenue accounted for over 80%. Although the overall tax revenue decreased by 1.2%, major tax types such as VAT, consumption tax, and individual income tax showed growth. General public budget expenditure was 14.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4%, focusing on key livelihood and development areas. Government - managed fund budget expenditure increased by 30% year - on - year, driven by the accelerated investment of central special Treasury bonds and special bonds in infrastructure. Despite the decline in land transfer income, local government - managed fund income remained relatively stable [3]. - On August 18, 2025, the central bank conducted 266.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through quantity - based bidding [3]. - The main term repurchase interest rates for 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.436%, 1.483%, 1.537%, and 1.528% respectively, and the repurchase interest rates had recently rebounded [3]. 4. Spread Overview No specific content other than the mention of related spread trend charts is provided. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content other than the mention of related charts (e.g., implied interest rate, IRR, etc.) is provided. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content other than the mention of related charts (e.g., implied interest rate, IRR, etc.) is provided. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content other than the mention of related charts (e.g., implied interest rate, IRR, etc.) is provided. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content other than the mention of related charts (e.g., implied interest rate, IRR, etc.) is provided. Strategy - Unilateral: With the rebound of repurchase interest rates and the fluctuating prices of Treasury bond futures, it is recommended to short at high levels for the 2509 contract [5]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the basis rebound of T2509 and the basis decline of TS2509 and TL2509 [5]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [5].

风险提示： 投资人应当充分了解基金定期定额投资和零存整取等储蓄方式的区别。定期定额投资是引导投资人进行 长期投资、平均投资成本的一种简单易行的投资方式。但是定期定额投资并不能规避基金投资所固有的 风险，不能保证投资人获得收益，也不是替代储蓄的等效理财方式。 无论是股票ETF/LOF基金/联接基金，都是属于较高预期风险和预期收益的证券投资基金品种，其预期 收益及预期风险水平高于混合型基金、债券型基金和货币市场基金。 基金资产投资于科创板和创业板股票，会面临因投资标的、市场制度以及交易规则等差异带来的特有风 险，提请投资者注意。 板块/基金短期涨跌幅列示仅作为文章分析观点之辅助材料，仅供参考，不构成对基金业绩的保证。 文中提及个股短期业绩仅供参考，不构成股票推荐，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。 8月18日债券市场大幅走弱。截至17点00，10年国债收益率报1.7850%，上行4bps，30年国债收益率时隔 4个多月重回2%以上，报2.0500%。 近期，债市迎来较多逆风因素。权益市场持续走强，风险偏好显著提升，基本面逻辑弱化导致债市深度 回调。上周五央行发布二季度货币政策报告，再次提及防范资金空转，并删去买卖国 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has seen a significant increase in trading volume, with the total trading volume surpassing 2 trillion yuan for four consecutive trading days, indicating a strong market sentiment and profitability for investors [1][2][3] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed above 3700 points for the first time, reaching 3728.03 points, marking a 10-year high, with a year-to-date increase of 11.23% [1][3] - New investor accounts in the A-share market have surged, with 1.456 million new accounts opened in 2023, a 36.88% increase compared to the same period in 2022, reflecting a growing interest in equity investments [3][4] Group 2 - The bond market has experienced a significant decline, with government bond futures dropping across the board, indicating a "stock-bond seesaw" effect as the stock market rises [7][8] - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions may lead to a prolonged "healthy bull" market, driven by increased investor participation and favorable policy signals [4][6] - The bond market's yield is expected to stabilize in the short term, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to remain between 1.65% and 1.75%, reflecting a cautious outlook on interest rate movements [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is under significant pressure amid a strong equity market, leading to a notable increase in long-term yields and a decline in bond prices [2][3][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 18, the 30-year government bond futures contract fell by 1.33% to 116.09, while the 10-year contract dropped by 0.29% to 108.015 [3]. - The 30-year government bond yield rose by 6 basis points to 2.053%, and the 10-year yield increased by 4 basis points to 1.785% [3]. Group 2: Investment Sentiment - Investors are experiencing increased difficulty in the bond market, with the returns from coupon payments being easily offset by short-term interest rate increases [3][4]. - The current environment is characterized by low returns and high volatility, which may persist into the next year [4]. Group 3: Macro Factors - The bond market's decline is attributed to macroeconomic changes and shifts in capital allocation rather than merely the performance of the equity market [5]. - The bond market is seen as vulnerable to systemic changes, with a lack of sustained upward momentum throughout the year [5]. Group 4: Credit Cycle and Risk Appetite - The debt cycle is currently in a "clearing phase," with a noted improvement in market expectations despite negative growth in medium to long-term credit for households and enterprises [6]. - There is a shift in risk appetite, with non-bank deposits reaching historical highs, aligning with the strength of the equity market [6]. Group 5: Monetary Policy Outlook - The central bank's emphasis on "preventing empty transfers" suggests a focus on improving the efficiency of fund usage rather than tightening liquidity [7][8]. - Although liquidity is expected to remain loose in the short term, the window for overall easing may be delayed, with potential future measures to stabilize the funding environment [7][8].

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a significant increase in trading volume, reaching 2.76 trillion yuan on August 18, with margin financing balances exceeding 2 trillion yuan, marking the fourth consecutive trading day of both metrics surpassing 2 trillion yuan [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose above 3700 points, achieving its highest level in nearly 10 years, with a year-to-date increase of 11.23% [1] - In July, 1.9636 million new A-share accounts were opened, a 31.72% increase from June, contributing to a total of 14.5613 million new accounts opened in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.88% compared to 10.6379 million in the same period last year [1] Group 2 - The bond market experienced a sharp decline on August 18, with all government bond futures closing lower; the 30-year main contract fell by 1.33% to 116.090 yuan, marking the largest single-day drop since March 17, 2025, and a new closing low since March 24, 2025 [1] - The 10-year main contract decreased by 0.29% to 108.015 yuan, while the 5-year and 2-year contracts fell by 0.21% to 105.455 yuan and 0.04% to 102.304 yuan, respectively [1] - The 30-year government bond ETF dropped over 1%, closing down 1.26%, marking three consecutive days of decline [1]