5月17日，2025年清华五道口全球金融论坛在深圳举行。中国进出口银行原董事长，中国国际经济交流中心副理事长胡晓炼在论坛上表示，特朗普政府推出的关税政策震惊世界。 从美国政府方面来看，希望达到减少贸易逆差、增加美国财政收入的目标。同时也是对国际贸易、投资体系的重构，重构过程中美国主导地位可能进一步突出。 此外，过去以粗加工、简单加工，一般制造业劳动密集型产业为主，现在更多技术领先的已经成为行业有影响力的企业，正朝着成为全球跨国企业方向走。胡晓炼表示，他们的 对外投资不仅仅是为了单一市场目的，而是像国际跨国公司一样需要在全球进行产业链供应链布局，这已经形成趋势。这种企业的投资使得投资所在地工业化水平较快提升，而 且投资也使得自己融入到当地的工业化、绿色化、智慧化发展进程。 胡晓炼进一步指出，在此过程中有三点值得： 值得关注的是，"现在很多企业在走出去，在国外建立相应的工业园区形成产业集群，从单个企业走出去变成带动一批企业走出去效果非常好。"胡晓炼还称，中国企业走出去， 不仅仅是企业自身解决就业、产生税收，而是把当地道路、水电等基础设施建设做好，效果也非常好。企业会积极参与当地基础设施建设，对当地经济发展做出贡献 ...

Core Insights - The most significant event affecting international trade and investment is the tariff issue, with the U.S. government implementing tariff policies aimed at reducing trade deficits, increasing fiscal revenue, and restructuring the international trade and investment system [3] Group 1: Cost-Benefit Rebalancing - The cost-benefit analysis in trade and investment is evolving, incorporating traditional factors like labor, land, and resources, as well as new elements such as innovation, institutional frameworks, and green development [3] - Geopolitical and ideological factors have also become critical considerations, leading to greater uncertainty for entrepreneurs while they still pursue maximum efficiency and effectiveness [3] - This situation presents opportunities for global South and emerging market countries to attract more trade and investment [3] Group 2: Economic Structure Adjustment - The rebalancing of global trade will lead to profound adjustments in the internal economic structures of major economies, addressing the imbalances created by globalization, such as the significant trade deficit in the U.S. and trade surpluses in the EU and China [3] - Historical experience suggests that effective resolution of trade imbalances requires countries to promote internal economic adjustments, ensuring coordination among savings, consumption, imports, exports, and investments [3] Group 3: Currency Rebalancing - Currency rebalancing is expected to guide the world monetary system towards a more diverse and inclusive framework, as the dominance of the U.S. dollar faces challenges from currency weaponization and the "Triffin dilemma" [4] - The international monetary system may evolve in three directions: the inclusion of more currencies, increased exploration of cryptocurrencies in cross-border trade and investment, and enhanced functionality of the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) [4] Group 4: China's Response - China remains confident in navigating the current complex landscape, with its foreign direct investment stock exceeding $3 trillion from 2014 to 2024, tripling over the past two decades [4] - Chinese enterprises are rapidly developing in the international investment arena, characterized by resilient private enterprises, leading technology firms, and the transfer of domestic industrial park experiences to foreign markets [4] - Chinese companies are actively participating in local infrastructure development, contributing to economic growth in host countries while adapting to changes in the international trade and investment landscape [4]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade war and tariff policies are deemed dangerous and detrimental to global economic balance, with a call for new rules in the international monetary system as the dominance of the US dollar wanes [1][3][4]. Group 1: International Monetary System - The US dollar's dominance in the global monetary system is gradually decreasing, with the US currently holding about 25% of the global economy, a figure that is on the decline [3]. - The future of reserve currencies may involve shared privileges among other countries, particularly the Eurozone and potentially the Chinese yuan, although the latter's status as a reserve currency will take time to establish [3][4]. - The unpredictability of US economic policies raises questions about the future of the dollar as a reserve currency, especially in light of significant fiscal deficits and debt levels [3][4]. Group 2: Trade War Implications - The recent surge in US Treasury yields, with 30-year yields nearing 5% and 10-year yields surpassing 4.5%, is attributed to the uncertainties stemming from the trade war [4]. - The trade war is viewed as a significant risk to global economic stability, with concerns about the predictability of the US economy leading to market volatility [4]. - A recent pause in the US-China trade war has provided some stability to financial markets, as evidenced by a decline in gold prices following the Geneva economic talks [4][5].

再次，货币再平衡将会引导世界货币体系朝着更加多元、更加包容的方向发展。尽管如今美元"一支独大"，但又面临着两个 问题：货币武器化及经济学中的"特里芬难题"。 所谓"特里芬难题"，即由于美元与黄金挂钩，而其他国家的货币与美元挂钩，美元虽然取得了国际核心货币的地位，但各国 为了发展国际贸易，必须用美元作为结算与储备货币，这样就会导致流出美国的货币在海外不断沉淀，对美国国际收支来说 就会发生长期逆差；而美元作为国际货币核心的前提是必须保持美元币值稳定，这又要求美国必须是一个国际贸易收支长期 顺差国。这两个要求互相矛盾，因此是一个悖论。 北京商报讯（记者 岳品瑜 董晗萱）5月17日，2025清华五道口全球金融论坛在深圳召开。在主题为"新形势下的国际贸易与 投资"的分论坛上，中国进出口银行原董事长、中国国际经济交流中心副理事长胡晓炼表示，未来的国际货币体系将更加多 元、更加包容。当前国际贸易体系正经历深刻调整，但中国企业凭借独特优势，仍能在变局中把握机遇。 特朗普政府推出的关税政策扰动全球金融市场，也使得国际贸易、投资体系的格局出现一些变化。胡晓炼认为，有三点值得 重视。首先是贸易、投资中的成本效益再平衡。从最初的成本 ...

Group 1: Core Perspectives - The global financial system is undergoing profound changes since the establishment of the Bretton Woods system in 1944, transitioning from a unipolar to a multipolar governance model [3] - The dominance of the US dollar is being challenged by unilateral US policies, prompting a need for reform in international institutions to reflect the economic weight of emerging markets [3][4] - The internationalization of the Chinese yuan is progressing, but full convertibility will require more time [3][4] Group 2: Institutional Reform - The reduction of US funding to multilateral institutions is pushing organizations like the World Bank to adopt mixed financing models to address infrastructure gaps in developing countries [4] - The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) has successfully implemented 132 projects across 47 countries, with 38% involving private sector investment [4] - Suggestions for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) include expanding the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket to enhance representation and developing a super-sovereign currency based on SDR [4] Group 3: Regional Practices - The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has led to a 90% zero-tariff ratio on goods traded among member countries, solidifying Asia's role in the global supply chain [6] - AIIB is collaborating with ASEAN to establish a $10 billion green infrastructure fund, focusing on cross-border electricity and low-carbon technology transfer [6] - The introduction of digital currencies, such as China's digital yuan, is being tested in ASEAN countries, creating a "digital currency corridor" that may support a future multi-currency system [6]

Group 1 - The 30-year US Treasury yield has surpassed the critical 5% mark, causing significant turmoil in global capital markets [1] - The current economic situation in the US is seen as a culmination of three decades of fiscal mismanagement, leading to a clash between inflation control and growth maintenance [3] - The US's urgent call for a second round of talks following the market crash indicates a desperate attempt to stabilize the situation [4] Group 2 - China's new negotiation conditions, including the lifting of technology sanctions and promoting cross-border RMB settlements, aim to strategically undermine the US dollar system [7] - The reduction of US Treasury holdings by China over the past six months, alongside an increase in gold reserves and local currency settlements, suggests a shift towards a new payment network that bypasses the dollar [9] - Global capital movements, such as Japan's secret bond purchases and Saudi Arabia's avoidance of US Treasuries, reflect a collective anticipation of a post-dollar era [9] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma: raising interest rates to protect the dollar risks crushing corporate debt, while lowering rates to alleviate debt burdens could destabilize the currency [11] - The potential collapse of US Treasuries by 2025 may mark a critical point in the restructuring of the international monetary system, with significant implications for global trade and technology [13] - The current situation highlights the fragility of so-called "safe assets," suggesting that traditional wisdom of holding cash and hard currencies may be more prudent in times of systemic risk [13]

Core Viewpoint - The current most significant event affecting international trade and investment is the tariff issue, particularly the tariff policies introduced by the Trump administration, which have shocked the world [2] Group 1: International Trade and Investment Dynamics - The competitiveness of the U.S. in general processing and labor-intensive manufacturing is not strong enough, making it difficult for manufacturing to return to the U.S. as desired by the Trump administration [2] - Due to policy uncertainties, manufacturing companies are more inclined to seek locations with lower costs and tariffs, which are often found in global South countries and emerging markets [2] - The current situation indicates three "rebalancing" trends in the international trade and investment system: cost-effectiveness rebalancing, global trade rebalancing leading to profound adjustments in major economies' internal structures, and currency rebalancing towards a more diverse and inclusive global monetary system [2] Group 2: Changes in the International Monetary System - The dominance of the U.S. dollar faces challenges, including the weaponization of currency and the "Triffin dilemma," which necessitates changes in the international monetary system [3] - Changes in the international monetary system may advance in three directions: the inclusion of more currencies in the international monetary system, increased focus on cryptocurrencies for cross-border trade and investment, and potential enhancement of the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) functionality [3]

Group 1 - The status of US Treasury bonds as the safest global asset and the dollar as the world's reserve currency is being challenged, with many countries initiating a de-dollarization process [1] - The current international order is facing challenges, particularly from the US regarding tariffs, and there is a need for a multilateral system [1] - The global trade system is no longer dominated by a single power, making diversification increasingly important [1] Group 2 - The credit of the dollar is facing systemic weakening due to rising US debt and fiscal deficit pressures, leading many central banks to reconsider their dollar asset allocations [2] - Despite the dollar's current status as a safe haven asset, geopolitical uncertainties are prompting a shift towards increasing gold reserves among central banks, including those in emerging markets [2] - The transition from the old international financial order to a new one may take decades, with emerging economies like China gaining more weight in the global financial system [2] Group 3 - A more diversified international monetary system is gradually forming, with the internationalization of currencies like the yuan and euro potentially providing a realistic alternative to the existing system [3] - Institutions like the IMF and World Bank may play a more significant role in the future international monetary system, with the possibility of developing new international currencies such as SDRs [3] - The global financial system may require alternative safe assets, and the inclusion of more currencies in SDR could support this diversification [3] Group 4 - The euro and yuan may gain more liquidity as their status improves, but Europe needs to unite for reforms to make the euro a more attractive international currency [4] - A fiscal union in Europe is necessary for euro-denominated bonds to attract significant foreign exchange reserves [4] - The yuan, while not fully convertible, has potential to become a global reserve currency, with recent steps taken to increase its use as a settlement currency [4][5]

Group 1 - The 2025 Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum opened in Shenzhen, focusing on themes such as global economic fragmentation, monetary system reconstruction, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area strategy, and the AI revolution [1] - Keynote speakers included Nobel laureate Michael Spence and former Polish Prime Minister Marek Belka, addressing structural contradictions and policy dilemmas in the current global economy [3] - Tsinghua University emphasized its role in providing a "certainty anchor" for global economic development through high-quality growth and financial technology breakthroughs [3] Group 2 - Michael Spence highlighted the ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting the global trade system, suggesting that a multilateral system is still possible despite current challenges [3] - Marek Belka pointed out the imbalances and instabilities in the global economy, particularly in the U.S., attributing chronic trade deficits to domestic economic issues [4] - Experts at the forum noted a trend towards a diversified international monetary system, although the dominance of the U.S. dollar is unlikely to change in the short term [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the future international monetary system will become more diverse and inclusive, influenced by current trade and investment dynamics, particularly tariff issues [3][4][6] - The first key point is the rebalancing of cost-effectiveness in trade and investment, with emerging markets in the "Global South" becoming more attractive due to lower costs and tariffs [3][4] - The second key point highlights that global trade rebalancing will lead to profound adjustments in the internal economic structures of major economies, with historical evidence suggesting that internal economic balance is crucial for resolving trade imbalances [4][5] Group 2 - The third key point discusses how monetary rebalancing will guide the world monetary system towards greater diversity and inclusiveness, addressing issues like the dominance of the US dollar and the "Triffin dilemma" [4][5] - More currencies are expected to join the international monetary system, with increased use of emerging market currencies for trade and investment [5] - There will be a greater emphasis on digital currencies, particularly for cross-border trade and investment, and a potential enhancement of the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) function by the International Monetary Fund [5][6] Group 3 - China's cross-border investment has seen rapid growth, with private enterprises being the main force behind foreign investments, demonstrating resilience and adaptability in changing global conditions [7][8] - From 2014 to 2024, China's direct investment stock is projected to exceed $3 trillion, significantly higher than the previous two decades combined [8] - Chinese enterprises are increasingly engaging in global supply chain construction and are transitioning from labor-intensive industries to advanced technology sectors, aiming to become global multinational corporations [8][9]