报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 12 月 12 日 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 12 月 11 日，万得全 A 放量下跌，开盘震荡运行后一路走低，收跌 1.10%，全 市超 4000 支个股下跌；沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘分别下跌 0.86%、0.39%、1.02%、1.30%，中小盘股表现更优。期货方面，IF、IH、IC、IM 主力合约分别收跌 0.76%、0.37%、0.67%、0.91%，表现强于现货（按收盘价计算）。 | 表1:股指期货、现货行情数据 | | --- | 资料来源：Wind，建信 ...

在中泰证券举办的年度策略会上，中泰国际首席经济学家李迅雷表示，2026年货币政策总量宽松空间受 限，降息面临低息差、资金空转入市等约束，其稳市场信号意义强于经济刺激，预计7天逆回购利率下 调10-20bp；当前加权存款准备金率已降至6.2%，接近5%的隐性下限，央行流动性投放工具已趋完善， 预计全年降准1-2次；同时，受人民币贬值压力缓解、债市预期分化等因素影响，2026年资金面或难重 现2025年3月的明显收紧。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, with an unexpectedly dovish stance, which is expected to improve global liquidity in the short - term and boost risk assets. A - shares may have short - term upward opportunities, but high - level chasing should be treated with caution [3]. - The pressure on the bond market to decline may have passed its peak, and the bond futures may return to a sideways trend in the short - term. There is a possibility of a phased rebound in the bond market later, and investors are advised to wait and see for now [3]. - Precious metals have increased fluctuations, and short - term gold prices need to build momentum to break the sideways pattern. Silver may face increased trading congestion, and investors should be cautious about chasing high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Categories 3.1 Daily Selected Views - **Bullish**: Tin (SN2601) is expected to be sideways with an upward bias; Methanol (MA2601) and rebar (rb2501) are expected to be sideways with an upward bias at the bottom [3]. - **Bearish**: Corn (C2601) is expected to be sideways with a downward bias [3]. 3.2 All - Variety Daily Reviews 3.2.1 Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures**: Due to the Fed's interest rate cut, short - term global liquidity expectations will improve, and A - shares have short - term upward opportunities. It is recommended to go long intraday but be cautious about high - level chasing, and consider using protective options or bull spread strategies [3]. - **Bond Futures**: The pressure on the bond market to decline may have passed, and bond futures may return to a sideways trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to the outcome of the Central Economic Work Conference. Positive arbitrage opportunities between TL and TF2603 contracts can be gradually considered [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are fluctuating in the range of $4150 - 4260 and need to build momentum to break the sideways pattern. Silver may face increased trading congestion after a rapid rise. It is recommended to use a virtual option double - selling strategy for gold and be cautious about chasing high prices for silver [3]. 3.2.2 Industrial Products - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel prices have stopped falling and are expected to continue to move sideways. Iron ore is expected to weaken from its high - level sideways movement, and coking coal and coke are also expected to be bearish [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For copper, long - term long positions can be held. Aluminum prices are affected by the Fed's interest rate decision, and it is recommended to take profits for previous long positions and then go long again. For other non - ferrous metals, different trading strategies are provided according to their respective fundamentals [3]. - **New Energy and Chemicals**: Polysilicon futures are rising, while industrial silicon prices are falling. PX has support at low levels, while PTA and short - fiber are expected to be weak in the short - term. Different trading strategies are recommended for various chemical products based on their supply - demand situations [3]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Corn is expected to be sideways with a downward bias, while soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to move in a narrow range. Palm oil has broken through support levels, and its main contract is testing the support at 8500 [3]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The spot price of live pigs is expected to be sideways with an upward bias in the short - term due to pickling demand [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Sugar is expected to move sideways at the bottom, cotton is expected to be sideways with an upward bias, and eggs are expected to be sideways with a downward bias [3].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market continues to show a strong trend, with government bond futures rising across the board and a net injection of 110.5 billion yuan in the open market, indicating a stable liquidity expectation as the year-end approaches [1][6]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract up 0.30% at 112.79, the 10-year main contract up 0.06% at 108.03, the 5-year main contract up 0.06% at 105.825, and the 2-year main contract up 0.04% at 102.456 [2]. - The yield on major interbank bonds mostly declined, with the 10-year policy bank bond "25国开15" yield down 0.75 basis points to 1.908%, and the 30-year government bond "25超长特别国债06" yield down 0.65 basis points to 2.247% [2]. International Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2-year yield up 4.8 basis points to 3.615% and the 10-year yield up 2.35 basis points to 4.188% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly fell, with the 10-year yield down 0.6 basis points to 1.954% [4]. - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds also decreased, with French yields down 2.8 basis points to 3.553% and German yields down 1.2 basis points to 2.847% [4]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 1,898 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 110.5 billion yuan for the day [6]. - The Shibor short-term rates mostly declined, with the overnight rate down 0.5 basis points to 1.298%, marking a new low since August 2023 [6]. Institutional Insights - Xingsheng Fixed Income suggests that the yields on various levels of perpetual bonds are still at relatively low levels compared to 2021, indicating potential investment opportunities in certain regional bonds [7]. - CITIC Securities notes a significant appreciation of the Chinese yuan, which may impact export growth negatively while encouraging imports, particularly affecting industries sensitive to currency fluctuations [8]. - Huatai Securities anticipates a "super week" for central banks, with potential policy divergence expected, indicating a shift in global monetary policy dynamics [8].

固定收益 | 动态跟踪 资金难收紧，债市难大涨 固定收益市场周观察 研究结论 风险提示 政策变化超预期；货币政策变化超预期；经济基本面变化超预期；信用风险暴露超预 期；数据统计可能存在遗漏 | △ * = li | | --- | 报告发布日期 2025 年 12 月 08 日 | 齐晟 | 执业证书编号：S0860521120001 | | --- | --- | | | qisheng@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 杜林 | 执业证书编号：S0860522080004 | | | dulin@orientsec.com.cn | | | 010-66210535 | | 王静颖 | 执业证书编号：S0860523080003 | | | wangjingying@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 徐沛翔 | 执业证书编号：S0860525070003 | | | xupeixiang@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 债市难以复刻 2020 年末行情：固定收益市 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The yield on 30-year government bonds continues to rise, with fluctuations observed throughout the day, indicating a bearish trend in the bond market [1][3]. Group 1: Government Bond Market - The yield on the 30-year government bond active coupon rose by over 2 basis points during the day, with a slight narrowing of the increase in the afternoon [1]. - The closing prices for government bond futures showed a mixed performance, with the 30-year main contract down by 0.29% to 112.240, while the 10-year main contract increased by 0.02% to 107.910 [1]. - As of 16:30, the yield on the 10-year government bond active coupon rose by 0.55 basis points to 1.834%, while the 30-year government bond yield increased by 0.45 basis points to 2.256% [1][2]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Technical Analysis - Analysts indicate that the 30-year government bond futures have technically broken down, confirming a downward trend, with trading firms continuing to follow this trend [3]. - The market sentiment was slightly calmed by a political bureau meeting, but the bond market still lacks direction, suggesting potential further weakness influenced by upcoming news [3]. Group 3: Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 122.3 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 14.7 billion yuan for the day [4]. - Short-term Shibor rates have collectively risen, with the overnight rate up by 0.1 basis points to 1.302% and the 7-day rate up by 1.0 basis points to 1.426% [4]. Group 4: Secondary Market Performance - In the secondary market, Vanke bonds showed significant rebounds, with "21 Vanke 04" rising over 31% and "21 Vanke 02" increasing over 23% [2]. - Conversely, some bonds like "22 Vanke 06" and "24 Industrial Integration 08" experienced declines of over 4% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market continues to show weakness, particularly in the ultra-long end, with rising yields and a notable supply-demand imbalance [1][7]. Market Performance - On December 8, the bond market experienced a general increase in yields, with the 30-year government bond yield rising by 1.75 basis points to 2.269% and the 50-year bond yield increasing by 3.9 basis points to 2.415% [2]. - The China Securities Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.40% to 483.93 points, with significant gains in several convertible bonds [2]. International Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 10-year yield increasing by 3.89 basis points to 4.137% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields also increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 2.3 basis points to 1.972% [4]. Primary Market - Agricultural Development Bank's financial bonds had competitive bidding, with the 5-year bond yield at 1.7772% and a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.03 [5]. - The Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps' local bonds saw bid-to-cover ratios exceeding 10, indicating strong demand [5]. Liquidity and Funding - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 1,223 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 147 billion yuan for the day [6]. - Short-term funding rates, as indicated by Shibor, have generally increased, with the overnight rate rising to 1.302% [6]. Institutional Perspectives - Huatai Fixed Income suggests that while the ultra-long bonds have seen some risk release, the overall market remains cautious, with expectations of increased volatility in ultra-long bonds [7][8]. - Industry analysts from Guosheng Fixed Income do not foresee a significant long-term increase in ultra-long bond spreads but acknowledge short-term risks due to potential market shocks from institutional selling [8].

消息面上，中国人民银行于5日以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展1万亿元买断式逆回购操 作，期限为3个月（91天）。鉴于月内将有同等规模的3个月期品种到期，本次操作后将实现3个月期买 断式逆回购等量续作。 华西证券认为，从近期操作看，已公布的12月3个月期买断式逆回购继续等额续作（投放与当日到期均 为1万亿元），参考11月续作结果，此举或并不代表央行投放力度缩减，而是更多反映了央行对资金投 放期限结构的调整，预计后续6M期将延续加量续作，以维护跨年流动性合理充裕。 天风证券也表示，综合9月、11月资金面表现来看，买断式逆回购等量续作或反映月初银行通过买断式 逆回购补充流动性的意愿不高，更倾向于等待月中、月末等流动性需求更为明晰的时点进行主动管理。 天风证券指出，上周DR001下破1.3%创下新低，显示央行在跨年期间对资金面的呵护意图，但这并非货 币政策进一步宽松的信号，需关注资金防空转诉求，下破1.3%状态可能非常态。与DR001下破1.3%并 存的是两个现象：金融时报刊文提及"收短放长"的央行流动性组合拳；11月国债净买入规模不及市场预 期。自6月以来，资金利率处于低位低波状态，但上周首次打破1.3% ...

国债期货周报：表现结构分化，等待企稳信号 研究员：沈忱 CFA 期货从业证号：F3053225 投资咨询证号：Z0015885 目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 2 第二部分 相关数据追踪 10 GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 ◼【策略推荐】 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 221/221/221 208/218/234 内容摘要 ◼【综合分析】 逻辑梳理：本周债市表现进一步分化，中短端走势偏震荡，但超长端调整加大。除明年货币宽松有望延续，而通胀预期已出现改善这 一基础叙事外，当前超长债投资者结构较为脆弱，市场对明年超长债供需失衡的担忧有所发酵以及海外部分国家长债收益率高位运行 等或也是导致超长端表现格外偏弱的重要原因。后续来看，虽然我们依旧认为当前基本面及流动性现状并不支持国债收益率持续走高 ，但短期内债市走势更多受投资者行为主导，在央行释放更为明确的呵护信号，抬升市场配 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：郁言债市 01 月初首周，资金面平稳 12月首周（1-5日），月初资金面自发式转松，全周隔夜利率R001周均值为1.36%，环比降2bp，R007为 1.49%，较跨月周下行4bp。 展望下周（12月8-12日），预计资金面继续保持平稳，隔夜利率R001大概率稳步在1.36%附近，不过下 周四（11日）起拆借7天资金可完整跨税期（15-17日），7天资金利率可能出现小幅波动。 具体到影响因素，公开市场净回笼和政府债缴款所带来的资金占用均降至相对低位。一是下周逆回购到 期6638亿元，处于年内相对低点（2025年以来逆回购单周到期规模中位数为10327亿元），到期压力不 大。 二是政府债净缴款转负，为-452亿元。不过，根据国债发行计划，下周还将有一只3M贴现国债发行， 暂未披露计划发行规模。结合最新的发行情况，我们预计3M贴现国债单只发行规模为600亿元，实际净 缴款规模或抬升至148亿元，缴款规模仍处低位，对资金面扰动较小。 具体来看，月初央行惯例大额回笼跨月投放资金，全周回笼2.5万亿元（含1万亿元买断式逆回购），不 过资金价 ...