每天市场中的信息太多，利空和利多几乎都是同时存在的。所以，我们不能通过事件来推到结果，简单 认为，哪个事件出现，就会导致哪个结果。这是有问题的。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 06. 05) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 量高利率 | 变化 | 成义重 (亿 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | 元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.46 | 0 | m | 2. 04 | 14 | 69244. 46 | 5407. 06 | 88. 15 | | R007 | 1.57 | -1 | 1 / 1 | 1.90 | -15 | 7776.88 | -899. 34 | 9.90 | | R014 | 1.60 | -1 | M | 2. 10 | 20 | 987. 97 | -36. 62 | 1.26 | | R1M | 1.69 | | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The index has stable support below and high pressure to break through above. The tariff negotiation is still ongoing, and the index fluctuates in the short - term due to news, but the export chain is heating up and the stock index continues to rebound. The 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bond rates are expected to fluctuate within certain ranges, and the treasury bond market may show a narrow - range oscillation. Gold forms a "double - top" pattern with resistance at the previous high of $3430, and silver may冲击 the high - level resistance of $34.8. The CMA of the container shipping index (European line) continues to raise prices in July, and the steel industry's demand and inventory are deteriorating. The iron ore is in a range - bound state, and the prices of coke and coking coal may continue to decline. The supply of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon has different situations, and the prices of copper and tin are affected by different factors. The oil price is dragged down by supply concerns, and the prices of various chemical and agricultural products are also affected by different supply - demand and market factors [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The index has stable support below and high pressure to break through above. The tariff negotiation is ongoing, and the index is affected by news in the short - term. The export chain is heating up, and the stock index continues to rebound. After the volatility subsides, it will continue to oscillate neutrally. It is recommended to wait and see, and try to go long on the CSI 1000 index in the range of 5800 - 5900 [2]. Treasury Bond - The 10 - year treasury bond rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.6% - 1.75%, and the 30 - year treasury bond rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.8% - 1.95%. In the short - term, the market lacks driving forces, and the treasury bond market may show a narrow - range oscillation. It is recommended to conduct interval - band operations, and currently, the odds are limited, so it is advisable to wait and see [2]. Precious Metals - Gold forms a "double - top" pattern with resistance at the previous high of $3430. It may have a pulse - type rise affected by news in the short - term. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money gold options on both sides can be adopted to earn time value. Silver may冲击 the high - level resistance of $34.8 after breaking through the previous high resistance of $33.5, and beware of long - position profit - taking at high levels [2]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The CMA continues to raise prices in July, and the market oscillates upwards. It is considered to go long on the 08 contract at low prices [2]. Steel - The demand and inventory of industrial materials are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and focus on the arbitrage operation of going long on materials and short on raw materials [2]. Iron Ore - It is in a range - bound state, with a reference range of 700 - 745. Pay attention to the marginal change in terminal demand [2]. Coke - The third round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills started on June 4th. The coking coal is weakly conceding profits, and the coke price may continue to decline. It is recommended to short after the price rebounds [2]. Coking Coal - The market auction continues to be cold, the coal mine production is at a high level, and the inventory is at a high level. The spot price may still decline, but the expectation has improved. It is recommended to short after the price rebounds [2]. Silicon - Iron - The large - scale factories in Ningxia have resumed production, and the cost side has rebounded and repaired. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Manganese - Silicon - The shipment from Groote Eylandt has resumed, but the supply of manganese - silicon still has weak driving forces. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Copper - The main contract should pay attention to the pressure level of 78000 - 79000 [2]. Tin - The resumption of production in Myanmar is slow, and the short - term shortage of tin ore boosts the tin price. It can be considered to try to go long [2]. Crude Oil - Saudi Arabia's willingness to increase production remains strong, and the increase in EIA refined oil inventory has aggravated the long - term supply concerns, dragging down the oil price. In the long - term, a band - trading strategy is still recommended. In the short - term, it is necessary to observe whether the macro - environment eases before making long or short positions. The fluctuation range of WTI is given as [59, 69], Brent as [61, 71], and SC as [440, 500]. Options can buy a straddle structure to capture the opportunity of increased volatility after the holiday [2]. Urea - In the short - term, the upstream continues to tighten inventory, and the export scale is difficult to increase for the time being, providing limited support to the market. In the long - term, a band - trading strategy is adopted. In the short - term, the market oscillates. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations and wait for the rebound opportunity. The main contract should pay attention to the support around [1730, 1750] [2]. PX - The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, and the price is under pressure, but the tight spot market still provides support. In the short - term, pay attention to the support around 6500; focus on the reverse - arbitrage opportunity for PX9 - 1; shrink the PX - SC spread when it is high [2]. PTA - The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, but the raw material support is strong. In the short - term, it still has support. In the short - term, pay attention to the support around 4600; mainly conduct reverse - arbitrage for TA9 - 1 [2]. Short - Fiber - Some factories have reduced contracts, and the short - term processing fee has been repaired. The unilateral operation is the same as that of PTA; mainly expand the processing fee on the PF futures market when it is low [2]. Bottle - Chip - During the peak demand season, there is an expectation of production reduction for bottle - chips, and the processing fee is supported. PR follows the cost fluctuation. The unilateral operation is the same as that of PTA; the main contract's processing fee on the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the opportunity to expand it at the lower limit of the range [2]. Ethanol - The port inventory continues to decline. Pay attention to the positive - arbitrage opportunity. EG09 pays attention to the opportunity to go long at around 4200; conduct positive - arbitrage for EG9 - 1 at low prices [2]. Styrene - With the expectation of gradually weakening supply - demand, the price is under pressure. Adopt a high - short strategy [2]. Caustic Soda - The alumina procurement supports the spot market. Pay attention to the marginal pressure of supply - demand and the warehouse receipts. Before the fundamental situation weakens significantly or the warehouse receipts flow out, still pay attention to the opportunity to expand the spread between the near - month and the 09 contract [2]. PVC - The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to effectively relieve. Pay attention to the change in India's BIS policy in June. Adopt a high - short strategy, and the operating range is 4500 - 5000 [2]. Synthetic Rubber - BR follows the commodity rebound. Hold the short position of BR2507 [2]. LLDPE - The spot price rises with the futures market, and the trading volume is moderate. It is in an oscillating state [2]. PP - The supply and demand are both weak, and it oscillates weakly. Adopt a high - short strategy [2]. Methanol - The inventory inflection point has appeared, and it is in an oscillating state [2]. Grains - The CBOT has stabilized and rebounded, and the two grains oscillate. M2509 oscillates in the range of 2900 - 3000 [2]. Live Pig - The demand is weak after the holiday, and the spot price is under pressure again. Pay attention to the support at 13500 [2]. Corn - The spot price is relatively stable, and the corn oscillates in a narrow range. It oscillates around 2330 in the short - term [2]. Palm Oil - The palm oil inventory may increase significantly, suppressing the increase in the market. Test the support at 8000 in the short - term [2]. White Sugar - The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds, with a reference range of 5600 - 5850 [2]. Cotton - The downstream market remains weak. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [2]. Egg - The spot price may weaken again. Short - sell on rebounds for the 07 contract and hold the short position [2]. Apple - It is in the off - season of demand, and the trading follows the market. The main contract operates around 7700 [2]. Orange Juice - The market price is weakly stable. It is in the process of bottom - building [2]. Peanut - The market price oscillates. The main contract operates around 8400 [2]. Special Commodities - For soda ash, the oversupply logic continues. Adopt a high - short strategy on rebounds and hold the short position. Conduct positive - arbitrage for the 7 - 9 spread. For glass, the market sentiment has reversed, and the futures price rebounds. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds. For rubber, the market sentiment has improved, and the rubber price rebounds slightly. Hold the short position and pay attention to the support at the 13000 level. For industrial silicon, the short - position closing on the industrial silicon futures market leads to a rebound. If there is a short position, it is recommended to close it. For polysilicon, although the warehouse receipts increase, the polysilicon futures price rebounds. If there is a long position, it is recommended to hold it carefully. For lithium carbonate, the sentiment improves, and the intraday futures price rebounds significantly, but the fundamental logic has not reversed. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - For zinc, the supply increase is less than expected, which supports the price. Pay attention to the inventory change. The main contract refers to the range of 21500 - 23500. For nickel, the sentiment improves, and the futures price oscillates and recovers, with little change in the fundamentals. The main contract refers to the range of 118000 - 126000. For stainless steel, the futures price mainly oscillates, with cost support and supply - demand contradictions still existing. The main contract refers to the range of 12600 - 13200 [3].

| | | | 银行间资金 | (2025.06.04) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成交量占 | | | (%) | (bp) | (近30天) | (%) | (bp) | (亿元) | (亿元) | 比 (%) | | R001 | 1.46 | | 1 / / / | 1.90 | -15 | 63837. 40 | 1913. 71 | 86. 51 | | R007 | 1.58 | | al | 2. 05 | 0 | 8676. 23 | -1004. 10 | 11.76 | | R014 | 1.61 | | N | 1.90 | 5 | 1024. 59 | -123.86 | 1.39 | | R1M | 1.73 | 7 | who | 2.00 | 12 | 86. 29 | -11. 18 | 0. 12 | | 汇总 | | | | | | 73790. 90 | 774. ...

交易咨询资格号： 证监许可[2012]112 2025 年 6 月 4 日 | | [Table_Finance] | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人：王竣冬 | 2025/6/4 | | 基于基本面研判 | | | | 期货从业资格：F3024685 | 趋势空头 | 震荡偏空 | 震 荡 | 震荡偏多 | 趋势多头 | | | 橡胶 | 锰硅 | 烧碱 | 硅铁 | | | 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0013759 | | 沥青 | 三十债 | 中证500股指期货 | | | 研究咨询电话： | | 橡胶 | 十债 | 沪深300股指期货 | | | | | 生猪 | 二债 | 上证50股指期货 | | | 0531-81678626 | | 鸡蛋 | 五债 | 中证1000指数期货 | | | | | 焦煤 | 尿素 | 硅铁 | | | 客服电话： | | 焦炭 | 白糖 | 燃油 | | | | | 红枣 | 纯碱 | | | | 400-618-6767 | | 工业硅 | 短纤 | | | | | | 多晶硅 | PTA | | ...

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 454.5 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40% on June 3, resulting in a net withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan due to 830 billion yuan of reverse repos maturing on the same day [1] - In May, the PBOC implemented a total of 700 billion yuan in buyout reverse repos, with 400 billion yuan for 3 months and 300 billion yuan for 6 months, leading to a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan for the month [1] - The PBOC's actions in May included a 0.1 percentage point interest rate cut and a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio reduction, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in liquidity, indicating a continued supportive stance on liquidity [1] Group 2 - The PBOC is closely monitoring changes in overseas central bank policies and is utilizing various monetary policy tools to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [2] - In June, there is no overall liquidity gap expected, but fluctuations may occur due to concentrated fiscal spending at the end of the month [2] - The net financing scale for government bonds in June is estimated at 963 billion yuan, a significant decrease from 1.49 trillion yuan in May, but fiscal spending is expected to provide some support to liquidity [3] Group 3 - As of June 3, the weighted average interest rate for 7-day pledged repos (DR007) was 1.5496%, down from 1.6645% on May 30 [4]

执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 研究助理：洪子彦 [Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 债市"每调买机"情绪回归 ——债市情绪面周报（6 月第 1 周） 报告日期： 2025-06-03 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010123060036 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 华安观点：6 月债市高胜率+低赔率的组合延续 当前 10Y 国债收益率在 1.65%至 1.70%附近持续震荡超一月，5 月利率 弱、信用强，存单在 1.70%附近震荡，短期债市多空交织。第一，在关税反复 扰动背景下，央行的主要目标由防空转、稳汇率切换至稳增长，双降以及一揽 子货币政策带动广谱利率下行，债牛环境不变；第二，但从短期来看，6 月资 金面易受扰动，存单大额到期+季末流动性冲击+供给高峰，在此背景下央行 对于资金面的话语权已经提升，我们预计一季度的情形大概率不会重演，资金 ...

6月股市推演：政策药效初显，但市场仍需"慢火炖汤" 家人们，五月的行情就像一位缠绵病榻已久的病人，政策"特效药"一剂接一剂灌下去，却总差那么一口提不上来 的气。 6月的A股市场，能否迎来那口"真气"？作为在股海里摸爬滚打多年的老水手，今天就和大家一起拆解6月的关键 变量。 编辑 5月政策火力全开：超长期特别国债启动发行、史诗级房地产新政"三箭齐发"、央行设立3000亿保障性住房再贷 款...这剂政策"复方汤剂"确实史无前例。但老张在券商营业部泡茶时总念叨："政策就像老火汤，急不得！" 5月制 造业PMI意外回落至49.5%，说明经济引擎尚未真正轰鸣。6月关键看两点：一是特别国债项目落地速度能否超预 期？二是核心城市二手房能否率先放量？这将决定政策"药效"能否在6月飘出第一缕香气。 二、资金面的双面性：存量博弈格局难破 北向资金： 5月狂扫近300亿，创年内新高！但细看结构，更多是MSCI调仓的"技术性流入"。6月美联储降息预期 再推迟（CME显示9月概率仅47%），美元强势压制外资持续流入空间。 内资机构： 股票型基金仓位已达87.2%（中信数据），逼近历史高位。公募"子弹"有限，私募仓位也升至76%的 年内 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京6月3日电（刘润榕）人民银行3日开展4545亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.40%，与 此前持平；鉴于当日有8300亿元逆回购到期，公开市场实现净回笼3755亿元。 上周（5月26-30日）央行公开市场净投放流动性6566亿元，资金面整体维持宽松，尽管在企业所得税汇 算清缴、跨月等因素影响下，DR007维持在1.6%上方，但隔夜资金利率持续回落，周五跨月当日R001 反弹至1.57%，仍为去年12月以来跨月的最低水平。 展望6月，中信证券分析称，在4月政治局会议"加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使用"的 要求下预计政府债净融资规模仍将维持在较高水平，但发行缴款压力较5月或将有所减轻，叠加6月财政 支出也可能明显高于财政收入，所以财政因素对资金面的扰动或将边际减弱。不过考虑到银行半年末考 核背景下6月信贷投放规模通常较高，叠加新一轮存款挂牌利率调降落地后银行负债端也可能会面临一 定的压力，资金面或难以实现自发式平衡。预计央行还将通过买断式逆回购、MLF等手段进一步投放 中长期流动性，6月资金面整体仍有望维持供需均衡格局，DR007利率中枢或保持在略高于政策利率的 水平上 ...

每经编辑｜张锦河 | 期限 | 操作量 | | --- | --- | | 3个月(91天) | 4000亿元 | | 6个月(182天) | 3000亿元 | 5月30日，央行公告，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年5月中国人民银行以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展了7000亿元买断式逆回购操作。 同日，央行还公告称，2025年5月30日中国人民银行以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了2911亿元逆回购操作，期限7天。操作利率1.40%，与前一交易日保持 一致。 此外，2025年5月，中国人民银行未开展公开市场国债买卖操作。 | 期限 | 操作利率 | 投标量 | | --- | --- | --- | | 7天 | 1.40% | 2911亿元 | 每日经济新闻综合自上海证券报、证券时报、央行官网、上海发布 据上海证券报5月30日消息，昨日，各期限资金利率涨跌不一。上海银行间同业拆放利率（Shibor）隔夜不变报1.411%，7天Shibor上行2.4个基点报1.602%。 截至昨日收盘，从回购利率表现看，DR007加权平均利率上升至1.633%，高于政策利率水平。上交所1天国债逆回购利率（GC001 ...

【资金面】 央行公告称，5月28日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了2155亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%， 投标量2155亿元，中标量2155亿元。当日1570亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放585亿元。资金 面方面，流动性继续向宽，存款类机构隔夜和七天质押式回购利率继续双降，前者下行超3个bp，后者 下行超1个bp。央行在公开市场连续投放资金，呵护月末前资金面暂无忧，不过存款利率降息后银行负 债端压力令存单利率近期小幅提价发行，仍关注后续走势。长期资金方面，全国和主要股份制银行一年 期同业存单最新成交在1.71%附近，较上日变化不大。 【市场表现】 国债期货收盘多数下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.04%报119.400元，10年期主力合约持平于108.730元，5年 期主力合约跌0.01%报106.020元，2年期主力合约跌0.01%报102.400元。银行间主要利率债收益率纷纷 上行。截至17：00，30年期国债"23附息国债23"收益率上行0.65bp报1.9240%。10年期国开债"25国开 05"收益率上行0.45bp报1.7140%，2年期国债"25附息国债06"收益率上行0.25bp报1 ...