Market Overview - The gold wholesale market in Jinan is experiencing a stark contrast, with more sales staff than customers, indicating a cooling demand despite rising prices [3][5] - The price of gold has recently surpassed 1000 yuan per gram, leading to a surge in customers opting for "old for new" exchanges, with small weight gold items selling over 50,000 pieces [1][8] Price Trends - Multiple brands have raised their gold prices, with current prices ranging from 1005 to 1010 yuan per gram, reflecting an increase of nearly 200 yuan from the previous year's average of 810 yuan [9][8] - Discounts are being offered by various brands to boost sales, with reductions of 50 to 70 yuan per gram being common [9] Consumer Behavior - The rising gold prices have led to a decrease in purchasing intentions among consumers, even among those with wedding-related needs [5][6] - Many consumers are choosing to recycle old gold jewelry instead of purchasing new items, with some customers reporting significant returns from recycling [5][15] Recycling Surge - The increase in gold prices has triggered a wave of recycling, with some customers cashing in nearly 70,000 yuan from their gold items [13][15] - The current recycling price is around 760 yuan per gram, significantly higher than last year's average of 550 yuan per gram [15] Market Dynamics - The number of gold retail stores is declining, with over 10,000 closures reported last year, and more expected in the coming quarters [6] - Analysts attribute the fluctuations in gold prices to geopolitical risks and monetary policy changes, which are driving investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset [16][17]

美国劳工统计局报告称，6 月份非农就业人数增加 147,000 人，超过预期的 111,000 人，美元周四触及 一周高点。此外，失业率从 5 月份的 4.2% 小幅下降至 4.1%，使美联储提前降息的希望破灭。 报告的其他细节显示，以平均时薪变化衡量的工资增长从 6 月份的 0.4% 放缓至 0.2%，并从 5 月份的 3.8% 回落至 3.7%。这有助于缓解对通胀的担忧，并为今年年底前至少两次降息 25 个基点敞开大门。 美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的减税和支出法案周四在国会扫清了最后的障碍。据无党派的国会预算办公室 称，该立法将使国家债务增加 3.4 万亿美元。这可能会进一步恶化美国的长期债务问题，从而限制美元 并支撑金价。 与此同时，特朗普表示，他计划最早在周五开始致函通知贸易伙伴他们的关税税率，因为避免美国提高 关税的谈判进入最后阶段。他的评论是在 7 月 9 日提高互惠关税的最后期限前几天发表的，并进一步成 为避险贵金属的顺风。 上海期货交易所指定交割仓库期货（7月4日）仓单日报显示，黄金期货总计21456千克，今日仓单较上 一日增持3000千克。 沪金主力盘内高位震荡偏弱，周五（7月4日）开盘报774 ...

中东紧张局势持续发酵，法国大选引发政治不确定性，全球地缘政治风险溢价上升。与此同时，市场对 主要央行（尤其是美联储）年内降息的预期虽摇摆但未消失。在避险需求和潜在货币宽松的共同支撑 下，黄金价格近期表现坚挺，再次兵临历史高点2400-2450美元/盎司城下。这一次，黄金能否实现有效 突破？ 地缘政治"火上浇油"： 巴以冲突、红海危机等地缘热点问题未见缓和迹象，近期以色列与黎巴嫩真主 党之间的紧张局势升级引发新的担忧。法国议会选举带来的政治不确定性也令欧洲市场承压。传统避险 资产黄金在这种环境下自然受到资金青睐。 央行购金提供长期支撑： 世界黄金协会数据显示，全球央行（尤其是新兴市场央行）持续强劲的购金 需求是支撑金价的长期结构性因素。分散外汇储备、对冲地缘风险和美元武器化是主要动机，这一趋势 预计在中长期内不会改变。 突破策略： 耐心等待金价有效突破并站稳2450美元上方（如日线或周线收盘确认），可视为强势确立 信号，考虑顺势跟进做多，目标2500美元及以上。 区间策略： 若金价再次在2400-2450遇阻回落，可关注在2300-2350支撑区域企稳后的低吸机会，设置好 止损。 严格风控： 历史高位附近波动可 ...

Core Viewpoint - The intensification of tariff threats by Trump ahead of the negotiation deadline on July 9 has heightened market tensions, leading to declines in U.S. stock futures, European stocks, and fluctuations in Asian markets, while safe-haven assets like the yen, Swiss franc, and gold saw slight increases [1][10]. Market Performance - U.S. stock futures for the three major indices fell over 0.3% [1][7]. - European stocks experienced widespread declines, with the German DAX and UK FTSE both down over 0.2%, and the French CAC down over 0.7% [1][8]. - The Nikkei 225 index in Japan rose by 0.1%, while the Tokyo Stock Price Index fell by 0.04%, and the South Korean Composite Index dropped by 2% [1]. Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.2%, while the British pound and euro increased by over 0.1%, and the South Korean won rose by over 0.4% [2]. - The Japanese yen appreciated by approximately 0.4%, and the Swiss franc rose by over 0.2% [2][13]. Commodity Prices - Spot gold saw a slight increase of about 0.3%, while spot silver declined by approximately 0.2% [3][16]. - U.S. crude oil prices fell by over 0.3%, and Brent crude oil dropped by over 0.5% [4]. Cryptocurrency Trends - Bitcoin experienced a decline of about 0.4%, and Ethereum fell by approximately 1.5% [5]. Investor Sentiment - Some investors are adopting a cautious approach, holding more cash in their portfolios due to concerns about market optimism among other fund managers, leading to reduced equity positions [6].

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 4 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 宏观金融团队 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 美国 6 月份 ADP 私营部门就业环比萎缩，令市场增强对 6 月份非农就业疲软 和美联储加快降息的预期，美国财政扩张法案在众议院遇阻进一步提振了贵金属 的避险需求，隔夜伦敦黄金反弹至 3360 美元/盎司附近，中美贸易形势边际缓和 以及中国股市持续偏强运行使得工业属性更强的白银表现优于黄金。特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局重组进入乱纪元模式，黄金的避险需求得到极大提振；目 前看黄金波动性上升但中线上涨趋势保持良好，建议投资者继续持多头思维以 ...

近期在黄金价格稳居每盎司3300美元上方、白银在36美元上方震荡盘整之际,全球市场正聚焦贵金属的 下一轮行情,高地集团认为:黄金与白银或将继续走高,背后推力既包括全球经济的结构性风险,也源于美 财政政策持续扩张与金融市场对避险资产的再度追捧。 金价企稳高位,白银酝酿补涨 根据Sprott高级管理合伙人Ryan McIntyre的最新分析,尽管黄金仍是他投资组合中的"永久配置",但其对白 银的关注已明显增加,白银的周期性工业需求在全球经济担忧缓解后正逐步恢复,同时金银比自4月超过 100的多年高位下降至92以下,表明白银仍有补涨空间。 "白银并非央行储备资产,但却在散户眼中依旧是重要的货币金属,"McIntyre指出。随着更多散户寻求抵 御通胀与资产贬值的手段,贵金属作为"硬资产"的吸引力正不断增强。 财政赤字膨胀,避险需求高涨 美财政赤字的不断膨胀成为支撑金银价格的根本性宏观背景,截至目前,美国联邦政府债务已突破37万亿 美元大关,而据美国国会预算办公室(CBO)估算,参议院刚刚通过的一项预算法案将在未来十年内新增3万 亿美元赤字,该法案已递交众议院审议。这一趋势大幅提升了投资者对美元长期稳定性的担忧。 美国 ...

截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为775.68元/克，下跌0.4%。 国际黄金价格报3337.5美元/盎司，下跌0.16%。 来源：金融界 全球央行购金趋势 据世界黄金协会数据，逾九成受访央行认为未来12个月内全球央行将继续增持黄金，2025年净购金量预 计突破1300吨，每增加100吨需求可推升金价3%-5%。全球央行的大量购买行为，为黄金价格提供了一 定的支撑，推动金价长期有上涨动力。 地缘政治与贸易局势 中东局势缓和、中美贸易谈判进展等使黄金避险需求削弱。不过，特朗普提出的税收和支出法案若通 过，美国债务增加，可能增强黄金避险吸引力。同时，美国与越南等的贸易协议达成情况，也会影响市 场对通胀和货币政策的预期，进而影响黄金价格。 走势点评：近期黄金价格受美国就业数据影响大幅下挫，但全球央行购金趋势为其提供长期支撑。短期 来看，若美国失业率、通胀等数据无明显恶化，黄金或维持震荡偏弱。长期而言，美元信用弱化、央行 持续购金等因素，使黄金仍有上涨潜力，不过需密切关注地缘政治和贸易局势变化。 以下是今日对黄金价格走势影响较大的3个主要资讯： 美国就业数据强劲 美国6月新增非农就业人数超出预期，失业 ...

Group 1: Current Situation of Gold - The recent demand for gold is driven by both hedging and speculation, with a significant increase in demand starting from Q4 2022 due to events like the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes and geopolitical tensions [4][5] - Gold prices rose from $1,600 per ounce in October 2022 to around $3,500 by April 2025, primarily fueled by market fears rather than supply and demand dynamics [5] - Currently, gold is experiencing a consolidation phase around $3,300, with trading volumes significantly reduced, indicating a standoff in market sentiment [5][6] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The simultaneous rise of gold and U.S. stock indices suggests a split in market sentiment, where some investors seek safety in gold while others bet on the tech sector's growth [6][7] - Historical trends indicate that prolonged periods of high valuations in both gold and equities often lead to a decisive market direction, either a strong economy with a gold pullback or a recession with a gold surge [7][8] Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Gold has experienced three major bull markets, each coinciding with economic downturns or crises, suggesting that gold prices tend to rise during periods of economic instability [10][11] - The end of gold bull markets typically occurs after a final surge during peak crisis conditions, followed by a prolonged consolidation phase [11][12] - Looking ahead, while gold may continue to rise in the short term, the long-term outlook suggests that as the economy recovers, other asset classes may offer better returns than gold [12][13] Group 4: Investment Considerations - The current environment indicates that gold's price will increasingly rely on speculative funds, leading to potentially greater volatility in its price movements [13][14] - Gold is viewed as a barometer of global fear, serving as a speculative tool during times of high anxiety, but may not be suitable for long-term holding [14]

各位好，我是南篱，一个财经人。 2025.07.03 周四 文/南篱 A、关于ETF持仓： 六月至今，黄金持仓一共改动19次，其中11次增持，8次减持。 上次我们提到，避险这一话题，迟迟不愿从黄金的推涨主因中脱离，相辅相成，黄金的上涨转变，至少要等到下一次减持增强才行，而且是力度 也同时增强。 | 商品 | 日期 (亮国时间) | 总库存(阿) | 培持/减持(座) | 总价值(关元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 更全 | 2025年07月02日 | 947.66 | -0.57 | 101597088424.68 | | 黄金 | 2025年07月01日 | 948.23 | -4.3 | 102065136577.81 | | 重金 | 2025年06月30日 | 952.53 | -2.29 | 100644114369.24 | | 黄金 | 2025年06月27日 | 954.82 | 1.43 | 100407751225.74 | | 賣金 | 2025年06月25日 | 953.39 | -2.29 | 101684585258.39 | | 英全 ...

刚刚，黄金突然直线跳水！ 截至7月3日20:51，现货黄金跌破3320.00美元/盎司关口，日内跌1.18%；COMEX黄金期货主 力最新报3333.3美元/盎司，日内跌近0.80%。 美国国债收益率飙升，短期国债领跌，2年期和5年期收益率上涨近10个基点，10年期收益率 跳升5.5个基点。 | 美国国债 こ | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 3个月期 | 10年期 | 2年期 | | 4.330 | 4.334 | 3.878 | | △ 0.52bp | △ 5.51bp | △ 9.71bp | 据财联社报道，美国6月"小非农"ADP就业人数 意外减少3.3万人 ，自2023年3月以来首次负 增长，预期为增长9.8万人， 这也是时隔逾两年多时间ADP数据首度转负 ，而在周三的数据 发布前，没有任何一位经济学家预计ADP数据会出现负值。 据财联社报道，AmeriVet Securities的美国利率交易和策略主管Gregory Faranello表示， 7月 降息的可能性已几乎没有， "美联储将在夏季暂停动作"，"就业数据是美联储调整政策的关 键"，这份报告为鲍威尔继续按兵不动提供了 ...