期货热点追踪 铜市供需博弈，机构预期短期价格上涨动能或将减弱？当前市场关注点有哪些？ 相关链接 ...

肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铜价格波动率（日度） | 最新价格 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 80540 | 73000-80000 | 9.38% | 10.7% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铜风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 82000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | CU2508C82000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率相对稳定时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力期货合约 | 买入 | 75% | 75000附近 | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper prices reached a three-month high due to uncertainties surrounding U.S. tariffs, which increased the premium of U.S. copper over LME copper, despite a moderate inflow of LME copper stocks alleviating tightness in the market [1][3]. Group 1: Copper Market - On July 2, LME three-month copper rose by $79, or 0.8%, closing at $10,013 per ton, with an intraday high of $10,020.5, the highest level since March 26 [1][2]. - The premium of U.S. Comex copper over LME copper is 14%, as market expectations suggest that the investigation into potential U.S. copper import tariffs will take longer, while the White House focuses on "reciprocal" tariff negotiations [3][4]. - Alastair Munro from Marex stated that U.S. copper is the real leader in the market, with LME spot copper contracts trading at a premium of $85 per ton over three-month copper, down from $320 per ton last week, the highest level since November 2021 [4]. Group 2: Other Metals Market - LME three-month aluminum increased by $21.5, or 0.83%, closing at $2,620.0 per ton [5]. - LME three-month zinc rose by $43.5, or 1.6%, closing at $2,757.5 per ton [6]. - LME three-month lead increased by $21.5, or 1.05%, closing at $2,059.5 per ton [7]. - LME three-month nickel rose by $96, or 0.63%, closing at $15,302.0 per ton [8]. - LME three-month tin increased by $53, or 0.16%, closing at $33,714.0 per ton [9].

"另外，从宏观层面来看，近期国内经济数据回暖，上半年消费表现良好，短期市场对需求的担忧有所 缓解，叠加未来存在中美贸易摩擦缓和、美联储降息等潜在利多，近期有色金属价格整体回暖带动铜价 走强。从供需层面来看，上半年全球精铜的需求缺口较大，国内消费政策发力，财政和相关建设项目也 加速释放需求，叠加特朗普政府的关税政策带来的需求前置效应，上半年精铜需求远超市场预期。"王 云飞说。 "目前铜市的核心交易逻辑是矿端出现历史级供应紧缩。"国信期货首席分析师顾冯达表示，Antofagasta 与中国冶炼厂2025年的年中谈判结果将TC/RC价格敲定为0.0美元／干吨及0.0美分／磅，远超市场预 期，凸显了全球铜矿商在供应紧张背景下的议价优势。考虑到未来全球铜精矿供应短缺与中国冶炼产能 过剩的结构性矛盾正在加深，虽然硫酸等副产品的收益暂时可以减轻冶炼厂的亏损压力，但-60美元／ 吨的TC极端水平已超越多数企业的承受阈值。 看向需求端，据顾冯达介绍，上半年铜市需求韧性较强。我国电网投资上半年同比增速接近20%，在一 定程度上对冲了房地产行业疲软对空调产量的拖累。更为关键的是，全球三大交易所和保税区库存降至 45万吨左右的绝对低 ...

Summary of Conference Call on Copper Sector Investment Opportunities Industry Overview - The focus is on the copper sector, highlighting significant changes in global copper inventory and supply dynamics [1][4] - Global copper inventory has decreased to below 300,000 tons, down from over 600,000 tons in the same period last year [1][4] - Supply growth is significantly lower than last year, increasing the risk of a short squeeze in copper prices [1][4] Key Points and Arguments Supply Dynamics - The Congo's Kamoto mine production has decreased, leading to a downward revision of annual copper supply growth expectations from 500,000-600,000 tons to 300,000-400,000 tons, with actual growth potentially below 200,000 tons [1][6] - Domestic smelters in China are unlikely to reduce production despite zero processing fees due to profitable by-product sulfuric acid revenues [1][10] - The overall supply situation is tighter compared to last year, which is a significant factor driving copper prices upward [1][6] Demand Expectations - Demand is expected to weaken in the second half of the year, particularly in electricity and home appliance sectors, although demand from the new energy vehicle sector remains strong [1][11] - Overall copper demand is projected to increase by approximately 4% for the year, with a potential recovery in the fourth quarter [1][12] Price Influences - Recent copper price increases are attributed to improved macro expectations, a weaker dollar, and potential U.S. tariffs on copper, which have led to global inventory movements [2][5] - The risk of a short squeeze is higher this year compared to last year, with speculative positions relatively low, indicating potential for increased buying [3][16] Future Projections - The U.S. tariff policy is expected to impact copper prices, with inventory movements likely to continue until specific measures are implemented [5][17] - The overall market sentiment suggests that even if prices rise significantly, the impact on downstream demand will be limited [16] Additional Insights - The performance of various sectors, including home appliances and transportation, is mixed, with the new energy vehicle sector expected to grow over 20% this year [14] - Companies like Tongling Nonferrous and Western Mining are identified as having low valuations and potential for price recovery, with production estimates for 2025 indicating significant output [19][20] - The overall performance of Hong Kong resource stocks has been strong, outperforming A-shares, indicating a favorable investment environment in the copper sector [20]

再 call 铜：库存供应双底的历史时刻 20250702 摘要 铜价上涨行情或已接近尾声，预计价格高点在 10,500 至 11,000 美元 之间。上游补库存、冶炼减产及潜在的 LME 和沪铜逼仓现象，将显著提 升 7 月和 8 月铜价的上涨弹性。 若发生逼仓，铜价有望突破 2024 年 5 月的 11,000 美元高点，当前的 市场条件，包括更低的供应增速、更差的库存水平和较低的非商业多单 持仓，均优于 5 月。 美国补库将继续推动未来几个月铜价上涨。尽管美国库存已处高位，但 价差依然驱动补库存，预计 7 月和 8 月铜价表现将优于去年 5 月。232 关税延期至 9 月或 10 月，也为补库存提供了机会。 第二轮补库预计将从中国和欧洲开始，因美国补库后，中欧库存消耗殆 尽。欧洲 LME 库存极低，中国甚至可能出现逼仓。下一轮铜价上行取决 于中欧补库时机，或由需求预期转好或财政刺激驱动。 预计下一波行情将在 2026 年或 232 关税落地后开始，商品价格可能回 到 11,000 至 12,000 美元区间。 美国补库将继续推动未来几个月（7 月和 8 月）铜价上涨。尽管美国库存目前 已达到较高位置，但 ...

金诚信 20250702 速也有所下滑，因为去年收购了鲁班比矿山，将其转为资源开发项目。预计今 年公司矿服增速基本持平，但公司计划签订一到两个大单，如与五矿资源签订 科马考项目，使得 2026 年开始增速回升。因此最差阶段已过去，未来增速可 观。 金诚信公司的资源开发业务情况如何？ 摘要 全球铜供需紧张，刚果金卡莫阿卡库拉铜矿停产影响显著，沪铜伦铜库 存均处历史低位，美国或加征铜关税，推高美铜库存，伦敦库存存在逼 仓风险。 宏观层面，美国降息预期升温，经济预测偏向温和再通胀或软着陆，利 好铜等高敏感度商品，预计未来铜价有较大上涨空间。 金诚信矿服业务受非洲电力供应及鲁班比矿山转为资源开发项目影响， 2024 年增速放缓，但预计签订大单后，2026 年起增速将回升。 金诚信资源开发业务快速增长，现有迪克鲁什、龙首、鲁班比三座在产 矿山，有效产能 5 万吨，规划到 2029 年提升至 18 万吨以上，增速领 先。 金诚信磷矿业务稳步发展，现有产能 30 万吨，预计 2027 年新增 50 万 吨，净利润贡献将从 1 亿提升至 2.5 亿人民币。 基于 9,300 美元/吨铜价假设，金诚信预计今年净利润约 22 亿 ...

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts upward price risk for copper in August, forecasting a price of $10,050 per ton [1]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-07-02 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货对2507合约报价升水150-250元/吨，均价升水200元/吨，较前日涨70元/吨； 现货价报80120-80290元/吨。沪铜2507合约早盘自80100元/吨急跌至79950元/吨后回升至80040元/吨，隔月价差扩 至250元/吨。持货商挺价意愿强烈，早盘平水铜报升水240-280元/吨，好铜280-300元/吨，但成交清淡。江苏因货 源紧张率先以升水200元/吨成交，上海平水铜降至升水180元/吨，部分品牌报升水100-120元/吨。预计今日月差扩 大或抑制升水，但贸易及投机需求或支撑市场交投。 重要资讯汇总： 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-07-01，沪铜主力合约开于 79630元/吨，收于 80640元/吨，较前一交易日收盘0.96%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合约 开于 80,620元/吨，收于 80,390 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘上涨0.46%。 现货情况： 宏观与地缘方面，当地时间7月1日，美国国会参议院通过全面减税和支出法案（大而美法案），并提交众议院。此 外，7月9日的贸易关税暂停最后期限越来越 ...

| 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 82000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | CU2508C82000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率相对稳定时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力期货合约 | 买入 | 75% | 75000附近 | | | | | - | - | - | - | - | source： 重要新闻： 2025年7月2日 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铜价格波动率（日度） | 最新价格 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 80640 | 7 ...