Group 1 - The seminar focused on the theme "New International Economic Situation: Global Order Reconstruction and China's Response Strategy" and included discussions on economic paradigm shifts, technological innovation, and the development of traditional and emerging industries [2][4][6] - The event gathered senior scholars from the fields of economics and management, aiming to contribute to the high-quality development of these disciplines [4][6] - The discussions highlighted the need for a new economic and management paradigm that aligns with China's unique characteristics to address the challenges posed by the changing global economic landscape [8][10] Group 2 - The integration of AI and big data is driving a transformation in technological innovation paradigms, necessitating a deep change in China's innovation model and governance mechanisms [12][18] - The importance of investing in human capital was emphasized as a key driver for expanding domestic demand and fostering innovation, aiming for a virtuous cycle between economic development and improving livelihoods [20] - The seminar addressed the need for a new type of innovation system in China that promotes collaboration between central and local governments, as well as market entities, to enhance the adaptability of the national innovation system [10][14] Group 3 - The discussions included the impact of green trade barriers, such as the EU carbon tariff, on the resilience of multinational supply chains, suggesting improvements in domestic carbon markets and risk management [36] - The evolution of China's renewable energy pricing policy was analyzed, indicating a shift from subsidy-driven expansion to a market-driven approach that emphasizes efficiency and value [38] - The seminar underscored the significance of data industries in economic growth, highlighting their dual effects on GDP contribution and enhancing overall productivity through resource optimization [26]

2025年5月，湖南房地产市场在结构性调整中显现新格局。国央企凭借资源整合力与战略深耕持续主导市场，包揽销售榜单头部阵营；而本土民企则以灵 活的产品策略和区域聚焦实现突围，部分企业名次跃升超10位。与此同时，地级市分化态势显著，本土房企深耕区域，品牌房企多点开花，形成了多元 化、多层次的市场格局。 榜单维度 湖南重点房企成交金额排行榜 地级市房企/项目榜 株洲、岳阳、湘潭、郴州、衡阳 湖南省 榜单 地级市 榜单 First Frost 企业榜单解读 1 国央企头部效应明显 2025年1-5月湖南房企榜单三甲格局为【华润置地】、【中建信和】、【招商蛇口】，头部市占率超22%。 【中建信和】作为本土国央企代表，以19.75亿元业绩位居榜二，销售动力强劲。企业完成湖南8个城市覆盖，其中长沙为核芯重仓区域。 【招商蛇口】以15.68亿元业绩位列第三，依托招商蛇口江山境、招商蛇口天青府、招商蛇口璀璨学府三大热盘"多核驱动"，凭借优质的产品力和良好的 市场口碑，实现了销售流速与品牌影响力的双丰收。 2 三成房企排名同比上升 本土民企表现亮眼 8家跻身TOP10 2025年1-5月，在湖南重点房企商品房全口径销售榜单中，国 ...

从出口国别看，对美出口增速降幅连续扩大，对东盟、欧盟出口增速较快。分地区看，5月中国对美国 出口增速大幅下滑至-34.5%，降幅较上月大幅扩大13.5个百分点，美国在中国出口比重下滑至9.1%。 （原标题：袁海霞 ：出口韧性犹存 关税博弈下需多策并举稳外贸） 2025年5月中国进出口总金额5289.8亿美元，同比增长1.3%。其中，出口金额3161亿美元，同比增长 4.8%；进口金额2128.8亿美元，同比-3.4%；贸易顺差为1032.2亿美元，同比增长26.86%。1—5月，中 国进出口总额累计同比增长1.3%，其中，出口累计同比增长6%，进口累计同比下降4.9%。 中诚信国际研究院院长袁海霞表示，5月"抢出口"退坡，出口增速有所放缓但仍强于季节性，出口韧性 仍存。 5月中国出口金额3161亿元，同比增长4.8%，分别较上月和去年同期下降3.3和2.6个百分点。原因有 二：一是"抢转口"减弱，5月对东盟出口增速较上月下降近6个百分点，中美关税大幅下降下"抢转口"必 要性减弱；二是中美贸易谈判取得超预期进展，一定程度上稳定了市场预期，"抢出口"必要性下降。从 高频数据看，截至5月25日当周，中国监测港口集装 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观深度 2025 年 06 月 15 日 分析师：罗志恒 执业编号：S0300520110001 电话：010-83755580 邮箱：luozhiheng@ykzq.com 研究助理：晁云霞 电话： 邮箱：chaoyunxia@ykzq.com 近期报告 《【粤开宏观】中美关税博弈下一步：特朗 普的底气与约束》2025-06-08 《【粤开宏观】如何发展服务消费？中国服 务消费的特征事实、制约因素和提振路径》 2025-06-02 《【粤开宏观】"十五五"时期中国财政政 策展望：财政政策转型的必要性与可能路 径》2025-05-27 《【粤开宏观】化债成绩、挑战及建议—— 基于对 2025 年地方化债部署的分析》 2025-05-20 《【粤开宏观】关税冲击的宏观时滞与微观 分化——4 月经济数据解读》2025-05-19 宏观研究 【粤开宏观】中美关税战的终局在经 济韧性与财政空间：中美财政空间比 较 摘要 当前中美关税战进入暂时缓和期与谈判期，但是鉴于中美双方仍面临对方的 高额关税以及特朗普多变的关税立场，关税谈判或将开启长期拉锯战。经济 基础决定上层建筑，无论是关税战本身还是金融战 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices is primarily driven by heightened geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, alongside other factors such as U.S. monetary policy and persistent global inflation [1][3]. Group 1: Reasons for Gold Price Increase - The key catalyst for the recent rise in gold prices is the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East, which has led to a rapid increase in risk aversion among investors [3]. - Other significant factors influencing gold prices include the U.S. fiscal situation, with concerns over expanding fiscal deficits and the weakening of the dollar and U.S. Treasury credit [3][4]. - Historical analysis indicates that the duration and uncertainty of geopolitical conflicts significantly impact gold price movements, with central bank gold purchases and inflation also playing crucial roles [3][4]. Group 2: Investment Considerations - Investors are advised to be cautious about chasing gold prices during clear risk events and should consider buying on dips instead [6][7]. - The difficulty of short-term timing in gold investments is highlighted, with recommendations for long-term strategies such as dollar-cost averaging [7][9]. - Despite potential risks, including a possible economic recovery that could strengthen the dollar, the overall sentiment remains that gold has substantial long-term investment potential due to ongoing geopolitical and economic uncertainties [7][9]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The long-term investment opportunity in gold is supported by its role as a hedge against extreme risks, including geopolitical conflicts and economic instability [9]. - The trend of central banks increasing gold reserves is expected to continue, providing further support for gold prices [9]. - The ongoing uncertainties in U.S. fiscal policy and geopolitical tensions are likely to maintain gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset in the medium to long term [9].

本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 核心观点： 长期视角：技术壁垒决定韧性，高附加值产品优势凸显。具备技术壁垒、产品差异化的行业在长期关税冲 击中展现更强定价权，形成"量价同涨+依赖度提升"的良性循环。建议关注药品、电机和电气设备、有机 化合物、铝制品等行业。 点击注册小程序 短期视角：出口下降具有普遍性，更多韧性通过转口贸易体现，对华进口依赖度高产品的海外替代较弱。 芬太尼关税导致中国对美国短期出口额骤降，不同性质产品无明显差异。通过转口贸易体现出口韧性的产 品包括玩具、家具、鞋靴、玻璃制品、贱金属杂项制品、电机和电气设备等。此外，美国对华进口依赖度 高产品的海外替代率偏低，需求缺口难以由其他国家填补。可以关注美国进口商在高进口依赖度产品中的 补库需求带来的出口反弹。 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本报 ...

新华财经上海6月14日电（记者杨有宗）"技术中心将赋能恩福进一步提升技术自主性，通过强化本地研 发能力，开发出贴合中国客户实际应用场景的创新产品与技术，并为本地客户提供更加独立、更加优质 的服务。"近日，科德宝集团中国地区代表王嘉毓接受新华财经采访时做出上述表述。 科德宝旗下的恩福（中国）前不久举行技术中心暨无锡新厂房启用仪式，该项目总投资2亿元人民币， 集研发、生产、销售于一体，是科德宝集团深化本土发展、赋能中国产业升级的关键举措。 据了解，该技术中心在立足汽车工业和通用工业等多个领域技术优势的基础上，将深入布局新能源汽 车、氢能与燃料电池、风电设施、机器人等新兴产业方向。 在王嘉毓看来，虽然中国市场潜力巨大，但也面临着不小的挑战，激烈的市场竞争和多元的市场需求就 是挑战之一。"随着中国产业结构不断升级，中国本地客户对更深层次的研发能力的需求日益增加，体 现在产品开发、设计、样件制作和验证等多个环节。" 在当今经贸格局下，如何提升供应链的稳定性和韧性也是需要企业进一步考虑的问题。"增强本地化研 发能力有助于恩福在复杂的全球供应链体系中，强化自身供应链的稳定性与韧性，以便更好地协调本地 采购、生产等环节，保障 ...

Core Viewpoint - Major Chinese automotive manufacturers have collectively committed to controlling payment terms with suppliers to within 60 days, addressing long-standing issues of extended payment cycles that have affected cash flow and exposed risks in the supply chain [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Commitment - The commitment from automotive companies is seen as a positive step towards improving the overall quality of the supply chain and enhancing its resilience against potential disruptions [1]. - The revised "Regulations on Ensuring Payment to Small and Medium-sized Enterprises" effective from June 1 mandates large enterprises to pay small and medium-sized enterprises within 60 days [1][3]. Group 2: Financial Implications - Shortening payment terms may increase the interest-bearing liabilities for large manufacturers, but it could significantly reduce costs across the supply chain due to their lower financing costs compared to smaller firms [2]. - For instance, while some private enterprises face financing costs above 10%, major manufacturers can secure financing at rates below 3%, creating a 7% cost differential that can be leveraged to lower overall supply chain expenses [2]. Group 3: Need for Clarity - The automotive industry's commitment lacks a clear timeline, and companies should establish a specific schedule for implementing these changes to ensure transparency and understanding across the supply chain [3]. - There is a need for clarity on how payment terms will be calculated and the specific payment methods to be used, moving away from practices that maintain extended payment cycles [2][3]. Group 4: Broader Industry Impact - The issue of payment terms is not limited to the automotive sector but is prevalent across various industries, and the automotive sector's collective commitment could serve as a model for other sectors [3]. - Adjustments in payment policies could lead to new competitive dynamics, emphasizing cash flow, supply chain stability, and compliance as critical competitive factors [3]. Group 5: Future Industry Landscape - The competitive landscape in China is expected to evolve, with surviving companies likely to possess global competitive advantages after navigating intense competition [4]. - The expectation is that the automotive industry's commitment will contribute to a more resilient and efficient industrial ecosystem, setting a precedent for other sectors [3][4].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.06.13」 碳酸锂市场周报 供给偏多库存高位，碳酸锂仍存有压力 研究员:王福辉 期货从业资格号 F03123381 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：碳酸锂主力合约周线震荡偏弱。截止收盘，周线涨跌幅-0.83%，振幅3.81%。主力合约报价59940元/吨。 后市展望：宏观方面，工信部表示，支持整车企业切实践行"支付账期不超过60天"承诺，继续引导整车企业与供应 链企业建立长期稳定的合作关系，促进大中小企业融通创新、协同发展，积极营造"大河有水小河满"的良好局面， 不断提升产业链供应链韧性和安全水平。碳酸锂基本面原料端，海外矿山持续挺价，出货意愿有所下降，冶炼厂需求 亦因为库存尚充足而采购情绪较弱。供给端，因前期期价反弹，部分冶炼厂因套保而锁定利润，生产意愿有所恢复， 进出口方面，智利出口量大幅减少，预计后续到港后国内供应量级亦将相应回落。国内供给量预计将呈现短期偏多随 后逐 ...

但从单周（6.9~6.13）表现看，银行ETF（512800）稳步向上，并于本周二（6月10日）再度刷新上市以来场内价格新高，其标的指数周内累计上涨0.46%， 已连涨6周！ 作为近两年A股市场"最抗跌"的板块，银行持续上行，走出了傲人的相对收益。今年以来，中证银行指数累计上涨9.8%，较上证指数、沪深300分别超额9.05 和11.6个百分点；若从2022年10月底的近3年低点算起，中证银行指数累计涨幅高达55%，同期上证指数和沪深300涨幅仅15.81%、9.12%。 | 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 区间涨跌幅 | 区间涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 区间首日】本年初 ×固尾日 2025-6-13 | [区间首日] 2022-10-31 [区间尾日] 2025-6-13 | | | | | | [自位] % | THAN O | | | | 399986.SZ | 中证银行 | 9.8016 | | 54.9458 | | 2 | 000300.SH | FR300 | -1.7975 | | 9.1167 | | 3 ...