Core Viewpoint - The recent 25 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve marks the beginning of a new easing cycle, but the underlying logic differs significantly from last year's cuts, leading to potential risks alongside opportunities [2][4]. Group 1: Differences in Rate Cuts - The current rate cut is categorized as a "recessionary cut," aimed at addressing a deteriorating job market and persistent inflation, contrasting with last year's "preventive cut" which was initiated under stable economic conditions [4][7]. - Recent non-farm payroll data has been significantly revised downward, indicating a rapid deterioration in the U.S. job market [6]. - The U.S. economy is facing stagflation, with inflation remaining far from the 2% target, complicating the effectiveness of the rate cut [7]. Group 2: Global Response and Economic Context - Unlike last year, other countries are not under significant exchange rate pressure and have already adjusted their rates, limiting the global stimulus effect of the Fed's rate cut this year [9]. - The European Central Bank has already cut rates in June and is not expected to follow the Fed's lead immediately, indicating a lack of synchronized global monetary policy [9]. Group 3: China's Economic Strategy - China's economic stimulus approach has shifted from broad-based measures to targeted support, focusing on innovation and consumption rather than indiscriminate easing [10][12]. - Initiatives include encouraging small tech firms to go public and providing consumer loan subsidies to boost domestic demand, reflecting a more strategic economic policy [12]. - The current low-interest-rate environment limits further rate cuts, making it challenging to replicate last year's broad-based economic benefits [12].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 4% to 4.25% is seen as a preventive measure, aligning with market expectations and potentially benefiting various asset classes, particularly in China [2][4][13]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, gold prices experienced a temporary pullback, while major Chinese stock indices, such as the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component, rose over 0.5% [2]. - Key sectors like semiconductors, communication equipment, and chips led the gains, while gold and jewelry stocks saw declines, with some individual stocks dropping over 4% [2]. Investment Opportunities - Multiple institutions suggest that the rate cut opens up opportunities in Chinese equities, bonds, and the renminbi, with a particular emphasis on Hong Kong's core assets [4][9][13]. - The potential for synchronized monetary easing between the U.S. and China could attract foreign capital into Hong Kong stocks [4]. Asset Class Performance - Risk assets are expected to perform well in a mild rate-cutting environment, while gold may face mixed results due to differing market conditions [5]. - The overall sentiment indicates that the rate cut is likely to benefit Chinese assets, with expectations of further monetary easing in China following the Fed's actions [9][13]. Sector-Specific Insights - Investment opportunities are highlighted in sectors with significant foreign investment, companies with substantial dollar-denominated debt, and industries poised for growth such as technology and renewable energy [10]. - The focus is also on sectors that are less affected by trade uncertainties and currency fluctuations, such as home appliances and engineering machinery [10]. Long-Term Outlook - The Fed's rate cut is anticipated to support corporate earnings, particularly in the U.S. stock market, while the bond market may see a flattening yield curve [16][17]. - The overall liquidity improvement is expected to benefit long-term assets, although caution is advised regarding potential market volatility due to high valuations [17].

博时基金热点解析 美联储如期降息25bp ❗️ 基金有风险，投资需谨慎。基金管理人承诺以诚实信用、勤勉尽责的原则管理和运用基金资产，但不保 证基金一定盈利，也不保证收益。基金的过往业绩并不预示其未来表现。 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 市场方面，由于降息未超预期，美债利率和美元反弹，黄金下跌，美股先跌后涨收平。 对此，博时基金认为： 本次降息为预防式降息，从历史来看，美国制造业在降息开启后1年从底部回暖，预期降息或将带来 2026年美国的增长与通胀边际上行。 回顾历史，历次降息后1个月、3个月和6个月内，A股、港股表现可能较好，本次降息叠加中国AI产业 竞争力提升，看好中国资产后续行情。 数据来源：Wind、美联储，截至2025年9月18日。 ☀️热点☀️ 美联储9月FOMC会议重启降息，将联邦基金利率的目标区间下降25bp至4~4.25%，符合市场预期。同 时，美联储下调超额准备金利率25个基点至4.15%，下调储备金利率25个基点至4%，并决定维持当前资 产负债表缩减步伐。美联储点阵图预期今年或还将降息2次（共50bp）。 决议中，美联储认为"就业增长放缓"、"判断就业形势的下行风险已经上升"、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on various asset classes, including equities, bonds, and commodities, highlighting potential investment opportunities and market trends. Group 1: U.S. Stock Market - On September 17, U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 0.57%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices fell by 0.1% and 0.33% respectively [3] - Major tech stocks experienced varied performance, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising by 2.85%, and individual stocks like Baidu and Xunlei seeing gains over 11% [5][7] Group 2: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, bringing it to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25% [14][16] - The Fed's projections indicate a potential further reduction of 50 basis points by the end of the year, with expectations of additional cuts in the following years [16] Group 3: Market Reactions - In a preventive rate cut environment, U.S. equities typically exhibit three characteristics: limited downward adjustments, strong performance in interest-sensitive sectors, and sustained trading activity for about three months post-cut [17] - The article notes that gold has historically performed well following rate cuts, with an 83% success rate in the first ten trading days after a cut since 1990 [18] Group 4: Commodities and Currency - International gold and silver prices fell, with COMEX gold futures down 0.82% to $3694.6 per ounce, and silver down 2.15% to $41.995 per ounce [10][11] - Oil prices also declined slightly, with light crude oil futures dropping to $64.05 per barrel, a decrease of 0.73% [12] Group 5: Chinese Market Implications - The weakening U.S. dollar and improved global liquidity are expected to drive capital towards emerging markets, particularly in Asia, which may benefit Chinese assets [22] - The potential for further monetary easing in China could support the A-share market, with expectations of a "golden September and silver October" rally [22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Maintain a bullish stance on precious metals prices, with a focus on the price increase opportunities of silver under the background of the Fed's preventive interest rate cuts [2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, but the monetary policy statement was less dovish than market expectations, causing short - term pressure on gold and silver prices [2] - Powell's characterization of this rate cut as "risk - management" alleviated market expectations of an overseas economic recession, which was a positive factor for silver with more obvious industrial attributes [2] - The voting pattern of this interest rate meeting implies a lower probability of current director Waller being elected as the new Fed Chairman, and the probability of Hassett taking office is increasing. Market expectations for the Fed's rate cuts will rise with the appointment of the new chairman. Currently, a bullish view on precious metals prices should be maintained [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Quotes - Shanghai gold (Au) fell 0.76%, closing at 832.64 yuan/gram; Shanghai silver (Ag) fell 1.06%, closing at 9924.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold fell 0.55%, closing at 3697.40 US dollars/ounce; COMEX silver fell 0.28%, closing at 42.04 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.06%, and the US dollar index was 96.97 [2] - Various precious metal - related varieties showed different price changes and trading volume trends on September 17, 2025, compared with the previous trading day [4][6] Impact of the Fed's Interest Rate Meeting - The Fed's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points and the less - dovish statement than expected by the market put short - term pressure on precious metal prices [2] - Powell's view on inflation, labor market risks, and the nature of the rate cut affected market expectations. His characterization of the rate cut as "risk - management" was beneficial to silver [2] - The voting pattern in the meeting affected market expectations. The probability of the appointment of the new Fed Chairman will also affect future market expectations for rate cuts [3] Technical Charts and Data - Multiple charts show the relationship between precious metal prices (such as COMEX gold, Shanghai gold, COMEX silver, Shanghai silver), trading volume, open interest, and other factors, as well as the relationship between precious metal prices and the US dollar index, real interest rates, etc. [8][11][12] - The near - far month structure charts of COMEX gold, London gold, Shanghai gold, COMEX silver, and London silver are presented, reflecting the price differences between different contract periods [20][23][33] - Charts show the net long positions of managed funds in COMEX gold and COMEX silver and their relationship with prices, as well as the total positions of gold and silver ETFs [41][43] - Statistics on the internal and external price differences of gold and silver are provided, including the price differences between SHFE and COMEX, and SGE and LBMA, along with their five - day moving averages and seasonal charts [51][52][54]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate cut, with expectations for further cuts by the end of the year and into the next two years [1][2][3] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Actions and Predictions - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut rates by 25 basis points was in line with market expectations, with a forecast of an additional 50 basis points cut by year-end and 25 basis points each year for the next two years [1][2] - The dot plot indicates a target interest rate midpoint of 3.6% for this year, down from 3.9% in June, while maintaining inflation and unemployment rate forecasts [1] - The Federal Reserve's approach is characterized as risk management, focusing on controlling employment market downturn risks [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Analyst Insights - Citic Securities expects further rate cuts of 25 basis points in October and December, suggesting that the market may see a "buy the rumor, sell the news" pattern in bond markets and a "catch-up" in stock markets [1] - CICC notes that while another rate cut is likely in October, the threshold for future cuts will become increasingly high due to rising inflation concerns [2] - Xiangcai Securities highlights that significantly revised employment data is a major driver for the recent rate cut, indicating a shift from economic slowdown to a more severe employment downturn [3]

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【9月18日招商宏观研报：美联储降息25BP，未来不确定性加剧】当地时间9月17日，美联储召开议息 会议，降息25BP，联邦基金目标利率区间降至4.00%-4.25%，缩表节奏不变。本次会议延续8月 JacksonHole全球央行会议基调，认为就业下行风险大于通胀上行风险，鲍威尔将此次降息定调为"风险 管理式降息"。 从点阵图看，美联储内部分歧大，加剧未来不确定性。点阵图和SEP显示今年降息 75BP，明后年各降25BP，低于会前市场预计的今明两年各75BP。 高频数据和鲍威尔表态显示，美国只 是短暂放缓非衰退，本轮属"预防式"降息。年内75BP已足够对冲就业市场下行风险，明年一季度通胀 有上行风险，后续关注9-10月美国就业数据。 本次会议对明后年降息指引保守，SEP显示明后年各降 25BP，与6月相比无变化。 ...

备受关注的点阵图显示，年内美联储有望降息两次25个基点，明年再降息25个基点。 当地时间17日，美联储宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间，符合市场预 期。 这是美联储2025年第一次降息，也是继2024年三次降息后再次降息。备受关注的点阵图显示，年内美联 储有望降息两次25个基点，明年再降息25个基点。 市场方面，在美联储宣布决定后，美国股市收盘涨跌互现。美元指数一度下跌0.4%，但在鲍威尔的新 闻发布会后，该指数抹去跌幅并上涨0.3%。 中金公司：预计美联储或将于10月再次降息，但降息门槛将越来越高 中金公司表示，此前期待的降息50个基点并未出现，决策者对于下一步降息存在较大分歧。往前看，由 于就业数据过于疲软，预计美联储或将于10月再次降息，但在这之后，通胀升温将使降息门槛越来越 高，货币宽松空间也将受限。当前美国经济的症结并非需求不足，而是成本上升。过度的货币宽松非但 无法解决就业问题，反而可能加剧通胀，使经济陷入"类滞胀"困境。 湘财证券：预计未来美联储降息可能会更加激进 中信证券：预计在本轮降息交易中美元可能维持弱势状态，黄金仍有不错表现 中信证券表示，等到新任美联 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中信证券发布研报称，美联储2025年9月议息会议降息25bps，符合市场预期。鲍威 尔表示这是一次风险管理式降息，在双重使命中偏向控制就业市场下行风险。本次点阵图显示今年目标 利率中枢为3.6%，低于6月显示的3.9%，同时上调今年美国经济增速预测，维持今年美国通胀和失业率 预测不变。点阵图指引年内还有50bps降息符合预期，依旧预计美联储将在10月和12月的议息会议上分 别再次降息25bps。等到新任美联储主席的最终人选落地后，2026年利率路径才会更加清晰。 市场方面，降息落地后美债再现"买预期+卖事实"、美股"补涨"特征依旧，道指和小盘股表现较好。建 议相对淡化此次会议对明年利率路径的指引，预计在本轮降息交易中美元可能维持弱势状态、预计黄金 仍有不错表现。 中信证券主要观点如下： 2025年9月美联储议息会议声明要点： 1)利率工具方面，委员会决定降息25bps，将联邦基金利率的目标区间下调至4.00-4.25%，符合市场预 期。此次利率决议未得到一致同意，临时理事米兰投票支持降息50bps。 2)资产负债表方面，委员会维持缩表节奏不变，美国国债每月赎回上限为50亿美元、机构债务和M ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve held a meeting on September 17, where it lowered the interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00%-4.25%, while maintaining the pace of balance sheet reduction [1] - The meeting continued the tone set at the August Jackson Hole global central bank conference, indicating that the risks of job market decline outweigh the risks of rising inflation [1] - The economic outlook was slightly downgraded, with a revision of the unemployment rate for the next two years, leading Powell to label the rate cut as a "risk management cut" based on weak non-farm payroll data [1] Group 2 - The dot plot indicated significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, increasing future uncertainty [1] - The dot plot and Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) suggested a total of 75 basis points of cuts this year and 25 basis points each in the following two years, which is notably lower than market expectations prior to the meeting [1] - Current high-frequency data and Powell's statements suggest that the U.S. economy is experiencing a temporary slowdown rather than a recession, indicating that the current rate cut is more of a precautionary measure [1] Group 3 - The report suggests that a 75 basis point cut this year is sufficient to hedge against job market risks, while inflation may still pose an upward risk in the first quarter of next year [1] - After the anticipated cuts of 50-75 basis points, there may be a reversal in rate cut expectations, with a focus on changes in U.S. employment data in September and October [1] - The guidance for rate cuts in the following two years remains conservative, with the SEP showing a consistent 25 basis point cut compared to June [1]