【导读】灵魂拷问！真假IP运营？52TOYS的AB面 中国基金报记者 赵刚 被称为 " 探花 " 的 52TOYS ，与泡泡玛特的差距恐怕不仅是市占率。 泡泡玛特、布鲁可年内股价飙升超 200% ，引得 52TOYS" 跃跃欲试 " 。近期， 北京乐自 天成文化发展股份有限公司（以下简称 52TOYS ） 向港交所递交招股书，欲搭上潮玩风 潮。 尽管创始人明确表示 " 不希望成为泡泡玛特第二 " ，但在此时谋求上市，市场对其估值显然 无法忽视泡泡玛特的存在。 仔细对比可以发现， 52TOYS 的核心竞争力与市场印象中的 IP 运营有很大区别。 一方面， 公司严重依赖外部授权 IP ，且无独家代理权；另一方面，公司产品依赖经销商，触达消费者 的能力在降低。 换言之，本应占据 " 微笑曲线 " 两端的 52TOYS ，却守在曲线的谷底。在潮玩市场竞争白 热化的当下，如果其战略不改，即便顺利上市，资本市场的助力也无法扭转其亏损态势。 依赖外部 IP 却自称 IP 运营 "52TOYS 目前上市的明显优势就是赛道红利和资本支持。 " 有券商人士直言， " 但公司依 赖授权 IP 且非独家，盈利、渠道效率低等问题依然显 ...

Core Insights - Labubu has become a significant phenomenon in the market, leading to a surge in the stock price of Pop Mart, which reached 246 HKD, resulting in a market capitalization exceeding 330 billion HKD [1][3] - The popularity of Labubu has also contributed to the rise of Pop Mart's founder, Wang Ning, who has become the new richest person in Henan [3] - Despite previous downturns, Pop Mart has successfully revitalized its brand through Labubu, which has become a new wealth narrative in the collectibles market [5][7] Sales and Market Performance - Pop Mart announced the suspension of Labubu's offline sales in South Korea due to safety concerns, reflecting challenges in overseas markets [1] - The sales of Labubu plush toys and keychains have been exceptionally high, with a notable auction sale of a rare Labubu reaching 1.08 million RMB [1] - In 2023, Pop Mart's revenue from its SKULLPANDA and MOLLY brands exceeded 1 billion RMB each, indicating strong sales performance despite market fluctuations [5] Brand and Product Development - Labubu, created by artist Kasing Lung in 2015, has undergone a successful rebranding, becoming a key product line for Pop Mart [9] - The revenue from Pop Mart's plush products grew by 1289% to 2.83 billion RMB, making it the fastest-growing category [11] - The Labubu brand has been strategically marketed through collaborations with well-known brands and limited editions tailored to local markets [14] Social Media and Cultural Impact - Labubu has gained immense popularity on social media platforms, with over 36 billion views on Douyin and nearly 60 billion on TikTok, indicating a strong cultural resonance [12] - The association of Labubu with celebrities, such as BLACKPINK's Lisa, has significantly boosted its visibility and desirability [12][18] - The phenomenon of Labubu reflects a broader trend among Gen Z consumers, who are actively engaged in the collectibles market, often driven by social media trends [21][22] Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior - The secondary market for Labubu collectibles has seen significant price inflation, with some items selling for 20-30 times their original price [20] - The rise in Labubu's popularity has led to a surge in speculative buying, with consumers often facing high premiums due to market demand [21] - The current trend indicates that while some consumers may benefit from early purchases, many are caught in a cycle of inflated prices driven by resellers [22]

Core Viewpoint - The strong sales performance of "Nezha: The Devil's Child" merchandise has significantly boosted the stock price of Light Chaser Animation, with expectations for future revenue growth from this IP reaching over 100 billion yuan [1][4]. Group 1: Financial Performance - As of June 16, "Nezha 2" has achieved a cumulative box office of 15.439 billion yuan, contributing to a substantial revenue increase for Light Chaser Animation in Q1 2025, with revenue of 2.975 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 177.87%, and a net profit of 2.016 billion yuan, up 374.79% [2][4]. - The company anticipates that the economic increment from "Nezha 2" will exceed 200 billion yuan, with merchandise sales potentially reaching hundreds of billions [2][4]. Group 2: Strategic Shift - Light Chaser Animation is transitioning from being a "high-end content provider" to an "IP creator and operator," aiming to reduce reliance on box office revenue and enhance the sustainability of its business model [5][6]. - The company plans to focus more on animated films, while still producing live-action films, emphasizing large-scale, genre-specific, and innovative projects [6][7]. Group 3: IP Development and Market Position - The company has identified key areas for IP operation, including games, cards, brand stores, and theme parks, with a focus on creating emotional value through merchandise [6][8]. - Light Chaser Animation is exploring the development of a 3A game, leveraging its animation resources, and is also in discussions for potential theme park collaborations [7][8]. Group 4: Market Challenges - The competition in the collectible toy market is intense, and maintaining the popularity of the "Nezha" IP will require continuous innovation and engagement with consumers [5][6]. - Previous attempts by other companies to enter the theme park sector have faced challenges, indicating that Light Chaser Animation's strategy may encounter significant hurdles [8].

Core Viewpoint - The LABUBU brand, a top-tier IP in the trendy toy industry, has recently gained significant popularity, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend and the reasons behind its sudden success [2][4]. Group 1: LABUBU's Success Factors - LABUBU's success is attributed to the emotional value consumption model, which combines emotional value, ecological closure, and industrial synergy to create a long-term lifecycle for the IP [2]. - The brand leverages community co-creation to enhance IP value, transforming consumers into IP dissemination nodes through various social activities, such as customizing toys and creating unboxing videos [2]. - A brand stratification strategy, along with global and local market adaptations, has laid a solid foundation for LABUBU's popularity, with product prices ranging from tens to thousands of yuan, catering to a broad consumer base [3]. Group 2: Market Expansion and Performance - In the past two years, LABUBU has adopted a localized "going global" strategy, launching region-specific limited editions that have garnered international attention, resulting in a 475% to 480% year-on-year increase in overseas business revenue in Q1 2025 [3]. - As of the end of 2024, the company has opened over 500 stores in more than 30 countries and regions, reaching over 90 countries through various cross-border e-commerce platforms [3]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Production Capacity - The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area provides a robust industrial chain support for LABUBU, with a complete toy supply chain in Dongguan ensuring stable production capacity, which has reached 10 million units per month by 2024 [3]. - The collaboration with artist Long Jia-sheng from Hong Kong infuses cultural elements into the IP, enhancing its appeal and marketability [3]. Group 4: Longevity and Cultural Transformation - Despite concerns about the lifecycle of trendy toy IPs, LABUBU's potential for longevity is linked to its narrative depth and the creation of a comprehensive universe that includes other characters, thereby extending user engagement [4]. - The success of LABUBU reflects a broader trend of Chinese manufacturing transitioning towards cultural creation, integrating design, manufacturing, and global operations to transform niche art into mainstream emotional symbols [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the remarkable journey of Pop Mart and its founder Wang Ning, emphasizing the importance of patience, adaptability, and a keen business sense in achieving success in the toy industry [1][2][3]. Group 1: Company Growth and Achievements - As of June 12, 2023, Wang Ning's family wealth reached $22.4 billion (approximately 160 billion RMB), making them the richest family in Henan province and one of the top wealth gainers globally [1]. - In 2024, Pop Mart's revenue surpassed 10 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate exceeding 100%, and the total number of stores exceeded 500, including over 100 international locations [2][3]. - Pop Mart has successfully developed four major IPs—MOLLY, SKULLPANDA, CRYBABY, and LABUBU—creating a global trend in collectible toys and expanding into various entertainment sectors [2][3][14]. Group 2: Entrepreneurial Journey of Wang Ning - Wang Ning's entrepreneurial journey began in 2010 with a small retail store, which evolved into a significant player in the toy industry through a series of strategic decisions and adaptations to market demands [6][8][10]. - His background in small family businesses and early entrepreneurial experiences shaped his business intuition and approach to risk management [7][8]. - Wang Ning emphasizes the importance of learning from failures and adapting quickly to market feedback, which has been a cornerstone of Pop Mart's strategy [8][10][12]. Group 3: Business Philosophy and Strategy - The company operates on the principle of "doing decisions quickly, but doing things slowly," allowing for thorough execution and long-term planning [22]. - Wang Ning believes that the essence of entrepreneurship lies in managing details and optimizing operations, which he refers to as "the invisible fighting power" of the company [16][18][19]. - Pop Mart's approach to IP development is likened to nurturing artists, requiring time and patience to cultivate successful brands, rather than rushing to market [20][21]. Group 4: Future Outlook - By 2025, Pop Mart aims to solidify its position as a leading global cultural entertainment company, with plans to expand into theme parks, games, and films [14][22]. - The company is focused on building a sustainable business model that respects time and operational integrity, which Wang Ning believes is crucial for long-term success [23][24].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the success of Pop Mart and its founder Wang Ning, highlighting the company's evolution from a niche toy brand to a leading player in the consumer market, driven by innovative IP development and a unique business model [3][4][5]. Group 1: Company Evolution - Pop Mart has transformed from a retail store selling various products to a company focused on collectible toys, particularly through its original IPs like MOLLY [5][50]. - The company has successfully created a market for adult collectibles, demonstrating that toys can appeal to a broader audience beyond children [4][8]. - Wang Ning emphasizes the importance of understanding market dynamics and consumer behavior, which has allowed Pop Mart to maintain a competitive edge over the years [4][23]. Group 2: Market Insights - The article explores the concept of "useless" products, suggesting that items without practical functions can hold significant value and appeal to consumers' emotional needs [5][22][23]. - It discusses the dual aspects of consumer behavior: satisfaction and existence, indicating that purchases often fulfill deeper psychological needs rather than just material ones [9][10][11]. - Wang Ning argues that the success of Pop Mart is rooted in its ability to redefine the toy industry and create a cultural phenomenon around collectible toys [4][53]. Group 3: Business Strategy - Pop Mart's business model is compared to that of a record label, focusing on discovering and commercializing talented artists to create unique IPs [25][32]. - The company has established both soft and hard barriers to entry, with soft barriers being the scarcity of artistic talent and hard barriers being the operational complexities of retail management [25][37]. - Wang Ning stresses the importance of respecting time and operational details in business, which are crucial for long-term success [38][41]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The company aims for global expansion, with a focus on increasing its overseas revenue, which has been growing at over 100% annually [72][75]. - Pop Mart is positioning itself to become a major player in the international market, with plans to enhance its presence in the U.S. and other regions [76][78]. - The future strategy includes diversifying its offerings around its IPs, potentially expanding into areas like theme parks and gaming [54][56].

Core Viewpoint - The scarcity of the Labubu product line from Pop Mart is a strategic advantage, enhancing its market appeal and profitability, rather than a result of artificial scarcity or "hunger marketing" [1][2][3] Group 1: Product Scarcity and Market Dynamics - The recent consumer frenzy for Labubu products has led to conflicts, indicating high demand and potential for increased sales if production is ramped up [1] - Maintaining a level of scarcity is a common practice in the industry, as it drives consumer desire and enhances the perceived value of products [2] - The success of Labubu is attributed to Pop Mart's strong operational capabilities in product design and sales, rather than merely increasing production [1][3] Group 2: Industry Practices and Consumer Behavior - The concept of scarcity is integral to the collectible toy industry, similar to how certain trading cards are designed to be hard to collect, thus stimulating consumer interest [2] - High prices and limited availability can create a buzz around products, making them more desirable, as seen in luxury goods and collectible markets [3] - The presence of counterfeit products, such as Lafufu, highlights the importance of maintaining brand integrity and the risks associated with increasing production [3] Group 3: Financial Performance and Strategic Outlook - Pop Mart is currently experiencing significant profitability, driven by the success of Labubu, but must continue to innovate and manage other IPs to sustain growth [4] - The company faces challenges in maintaining the momentum of its successful IPs, as the collectible toy market is competitive and requires ongoing consumer engagement [4]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Film (601595.SH) is focusing on IP development and operation to enhance profitability, despite facing significant challenges in its core film exhibition and distribution businesses due to a sluggish market [1][8]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Shanghai Film's revenue was 6.904 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.19% year-on-year, and only 62% of its 2019 revenue [3][4]. - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was 900.5 million yuan, down 29.08% year-on-year, with a significant drop in net profit after deducting non-recurring items to 17.36 million yuan, a 72.32% decline [3][4]. - Non-recurring income became a crucial support for the company's performance, contributing 72.9% of total profit, with 50.97 million yuan from non-current asset disposals [3]. Market Conditions - The domestic film market in 2024 saw a total box office of 42.502 billion yuan, a decline of 22.63% year-on-year, with attendance dropping by 22.27% to 1.009 billion viewers [2]. - The average ticket price decreased by 0.47% to 42.1 yuan, and cinema occupancy rates fell to 5.8%, down 2.13% year-on-year [2]. Business Segments - The film exhibition business, which accounts for over 60% of total revenue, reported a revenue of 4.545 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 17.33% year-on-year, and a significant drop in profitability with a gross margin of -2.66% [5][6]. - The film distribution business generated 20.4 million yuan in revenue, down 38.04% year-on-year, with its revenue share in total revenue declining to 2.96% [7]. IP Operations - The IP operation business emerged as a highlight in 2024, achieving a revenue of 66.18 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.74%, and a gross margin of 90.87% [9][10]. - Shanghai Film has made strategic acquisitions to enhance its IP portfolio, including classic animation and film rights, and has engaged in various commercial collaborations to boost market exposure [8][9].

Summary of Conference Call on the Toy Card Industry Industry Overview - The toy card industry has been significantly impacted by the entry of Japanese brands into the Chinese market, which has altered the sales model and led to the closure of many low-quality stores [1][3][4]. Key Points Company Performance - 卡游 (Kawoo) has successfully adapted to market changes by enhancing its product line and expanding distribution channels, resulting in a dramatic sales increase in 2024 [1][4]. - 凯钰 (Kaiyu) has a competitive edge in IP procurement, allowing for rapid selection of popular international IPs and quick product updates, leading to high revenue [1][6]. Market Dynamics - The influx of Japanese brands like 宝可梦 (Pokémon) has educated consumers in China about card games, but many small, poorly managed stores failed to meet consumer needs, leading to a market shakeout [2][3]. - The overall market evolution has improved consumer awareness and acceptance of card games, benefiting companies like 卡游 [4]. Distribution Strategies - 卡游 focuses on high-quality first-level distributors, while 布鲁可 (Blucor) employs a traditional toy industry model that includes multiple levels of distributors [7][8]. - The differing strategies affect how each company gathers market feedback and manages pricing [9]. Product Lifecycle Management - Both 卡游 and 布鲁可 rely on established IPs for product development, facing challenges in creating original IPs due to the high investment required [11][12]. - Continuous product updates and innovative collaborations are essential for extending the lifecycle of their offerings [13][14]. Supply Chain Considerations - 卡游 benefits from owning its production facilities, allowing for better control over production timelines and market responsiveness [16]. - 布鲁可's reluctance to invest in a complete supply chain is attributed to high costs and the nature of its product offerings [17]. Competitive Landscape - The domestic derivative product market is growing slowly, with companies like 卡游, 布鲁可, and 泡泡玛特 (Pop Mart) competing closely, often mirroring Japanese market leaders [10][24]. - 泡泡玛特 has differentiated itself through original content and collaborations with well-known brands, while 卡游 and 布鲁可 leverage rich storytelling from their IPs [10][11]. Future Outlook - 卡游 plans to expand into international markets, particularly in Japan and Thailand, while facing challenges in the competitive Japanese market [18][19]. - 布鲁可 is accelerating its product launch pace to maximize revenue from newly acquired IPs [27]. Additional Insights - The choice of IP and product form must align with the company's strengths and market demands, considering factors like target demographics and cultural relevance [22][23]. - The ability to manage production costs and maintain quality is critical, especially in the printing and manufacturing processes [25][26].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the toy industry, specifically focusing on brands like Ultraman, Transformers, and others under the company’s portfolio. The overall market dynamics and competition from both domestic and international brands are highlighted. Core Insights and Arguments - **Ultraman Sales Performance**: The sales target for Ultraman in 2025 is set between 1.6 billion to 1.8 billion yuan. The market share has decreased to 40%-50% in Q1, but sales improved in April due to new product launches [2][5][12]. - **Transformers Market Share**: Transformers currently holds a sales share of approximately 20%, with a target to reach 28%-31% this year, aiming for total sales of around 1 billion yuan [6][12]. - **Hero Infinite Sales Fluctuation**: Hero Infinite experienced significant sales fluctuations, with March sales at 60 million yuan (18% of total sales) and a drop to 40 million yuan in April. The annual target is set at 2 billion yuan [12][16]. - **Kamen Rider Performance**: Kamen Rider, as a new IP, generated 200 million yuan last year but has underperformed in the current year, with expected sales not exceeding 30 million yuan in May [13][14]. - **EVA and Hatsune Miku Sales**: Despite supply chain issues, EVA and Hatsune Miku IPs have monthly sales exceeding 10 million yuan, contributing nearly 10% to overall sales [18][19]. - **New Product Launches**: The company plans to launch 14 to 17 new products this year, including collectible models priced at 799 yuan and 1,299 yuan [4][30]. Competitive Landscape - **Brand Competition**: The company faces competition from domestic brands like Qimiao and Senbao, which offer lower-priced products. Internationally, Bandai's low-priced offerings pose a significant threat [36][38]. - **Market Positioning**: The company emphasizes its unique 4-micron mold precision technology, which sets its products apart in terms of quality compared to competitors [39][40]. Additional Important Insights - **Inventory Management**: The average inventory cycle for stores is about 45 days, with significant improvements in inventory pressure compared to the beginning of the year [33][34]. - **Expansion Goals**: The company aims to increase its terminal network from 180,000 to 300,000 by focusing on lower-tier markets [29]. - **Consumer Trends**: There is a noted shift in consumer preferences, with lower-priced products attracting younger demographics, while adult consumers tend to prefer higher-priced items [10][11]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the company's performance, market dynamics, and strategic direction.