记者 张骏 12月14日至15日，中共上海市委举行学习讨论会。市委书记陈吉宁主持会议并强调，要把学习贯彻 党的二十届四中全会和中央经济工作会议精神，同贯彻落实习近平总书记考察上海重要讲话精神更加紧 密结合起来，保持战略定力，始终坚定信心，善于科学应对，改进工作方法，加强上下统筹，更好形成 全市发展"一盘棋"，干字当头、奋力一跳，以义不容辞的责任担当为全国挑大梁、作贡献，努力在推进 中国式现代化中充分发挥龙头带动和示范引领作用，确保"十五五"开好局、起好步。 市委副书记、市长龚正，市人大常委会主任黄莉新、市政协主席胡文容、市委副书记朱忠明出席会 议并作了发言。 会上，上海财经大学校长刘元春就"十五五"时期国内经济形势展望，香港金融管理局助理总裁兼首 席经济学家朱海斌就2026年国际经贸形势及其影响分析，分别作了专题辅导报告。65位同志围绕会议主 题，结合工作实际，着眼谋划新一年工作，交流体会、分析问题，开拓思路、集思广益，提出了有针对 性、有启发性的意见建议，进一步凝聚共识、形成合力。 陈吉宁指出，明年是"十五五"开局之年。习近平总书记在中央经济工作会议上对当前国际国内形势 作出深刻分析。要切实把思想和行动统一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has outlined five key areas of focus to enhance the capital market's framework for long-term development, aiming to support high-quality economic growth and stabilize market operations [1][2]. Group 1: Quality Improvement and Efficiency - The meeting emphasized the need for a stable yet progressive approach, focusing on risk prevention, strong regulation, and promoting high-quality development, which will guide the comprehensive reform of capital market financing [2][3]. - Experts believe that the capital market's "14th Five-Year Plan" will align with national strategies, emphasizing reform and innovation to enhance market inclusivity and competitiveness [3]. Group 2: Strengthening Market Stability - The meeting highlighted the importance of enhancing the internal stability of the capital market, which is crucial for achieving high-quality development [4]. - Strengthening market stability involves improving trading mechanisms, optimizing market structures, and reinforcing risk prevention systems [4][5]. Group 3: Reform Initiatives - The meeting called for ongoing reforms to increase the capital market's inclusivity and attractiveness, including the implementation of reforms for the ChiNext and STAR Market [6]. - These reforms are expected to improve resource allocation towards strategic technological sectors and provide investors with diverse investment opportunities [6]. Group 4: Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) - The meeting urged the swift implementation of commercial real estate REITs pilot programs, with a target of launching new key futures products [7]. - As of November 2025, the market has launched 77 REITs, with a total market value exceeding 220 billion yuan, which has mobilized investments of 1,134.1 billion yuan [7].

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is implementing a series of measures to enhance the stability and attractiveness of the capital market, focusing on governance, reform, and regulatory enforcement to support high-quality economic development [1][2][3] Group 1: Strategic Planning - The CSRC emphasizes the importance of aligning with the national "14th Five-Year Plan" and developing a comprehensive "15th Five-Year Plan" for the capital market, outlining key goals and tasks for the next five years [2] - The meeting highlighted the need for a systematic approach to ensure the effective implementation of the capital market's development strategies [2] Group 2: Market Stability - A new round of corporate governance initiatives will be launched to encourage high-quality companies to increase dividend payouts and share buybacks [2] - The CSRC aims to enhance the internal stability of the market by promoting long-term investment mechanisms and developing equity public funds [2] - There will be a focus on cross-market and cross-border risk monitoring to strengthen market stability [2] Group 3: Reform Initiatives - The CSRC plans to deepen the reform of the ChiNext board and accelerate the implementation of the "1+6" reform measures for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [2] - The development of private equity funds and the introduction of new futures products are also on the agenda [2] Group 4: Regulatory Enforcement - The CSRC will enhance regulatory effectiveness by leveraging technology and intensifying efforts against financial fraud, insider trading, and market manipulation [3] - New regulations for listed companies will be developed, and existing laws governing securities firms and investment funds will be revised [3] Group 5: Party Discipline and Governance - The CSRC is committed to strengthening party discipline and governance within its system, ensuring adherence to the central leadership's directives [3] - There will be a focus on improving the oversight of public power and enhancing the accountability of regulatory bodies [3]

Group 1 - The economic growth target for 2026 is expected to remain around 5%, with an actual growth rate of approximately 4.9% and a nominal GDP growth rate rising to about 4.2% [1][12][49] - Investment in the manufacturing sector is projected to grow by 5.2% driven by high-end and intelligent upgrades, while infrastructure investment is expected to increase by 6% due to major projects [1][30] - Real estate investment is anticipated to see a narrowing decline to -10%, with a focus on stabilizing new housing supply under the "good housing" standard [33][37] Group 2 - The consumer market is expected to grow significantly, with an optimistic forecast of a 5% increase in retail sales, particularly in county-level consumption and services such as healthcare and education [1][43][51] - The CPI and PPI are projected to rebound to 0.5% and a range of -1% to 0, respectively, indicating a focus on price stability [1][12] - The policy environment will continue to be supportive, with fiscal policies maintaining a loose stance, including a budget deficit rate potentially exceeding 4% and an expansion of special bond issuance [1][2][30] Group 3 - Global capital flows are shifting towards a geopolitical orientation, with China transitioning from a recipient of foreign investment to an exporter, particularly in future industries and critical metals [2][30] - The domestic development model is shifting from "investment in things" to "investment in people," aiming for a dynamic balance between efficiency and equity, with a projected increase of nearly 8 trillion yuan in consumer scale during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2][30] - The economic landscape is showing structural differentiation, with the U.S. experiencing a cooling job market and Europe showing varied economic strength, while emerging markets face slowing growth [2][30]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need to deepen comprehensive reforms in capital market investment and financing, focusing on enhancing market stability and improving the attractiveness of the capital market for various enterprises and investors [1]. Group 1: Enhancing Market Stability - The meeting prioritizes enhancing market stability through four key areas: improving the quality of listed companies, promoting long-term capital inflow, establishing a long-term market stabilization mechanism, and guiding market expectations [2]. - A new round of corporate governance initiatives will be launched to implement the revised Corporate Governance Code, aiming to cultivate a governance culture and strengthen risk prevention capabilities among listed companies [2][3]. - The meeting encourages high-quality companies to increase dividend payouts and share buybacks, with a focus on binding dividend behavior to refinancing for companies that do not distribute dividends [3]. Group 2: Long-term Capital Inflow - The meeting proposes the implementation of a long-term assessment mechanism for mid- to long-term capital, which is crucial for stabilizing the market and enhancing resilience [4]. - This mechanism aims to guide investments towards long-term value and support the transformation and innovation of the real economy [4]. Group 3: Reforming the "Two Innovation Boards" - The meeting announces the initiation of reforms for the ChiNext board and the implementation of the "1+6" reform measures for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, aimed at better serving innovative enterprises [5][7]. - The reforms will enhance listing standards, improve financing flexibility, and strengthen the governance and investor return mechanisms for growth-oriented innovative companies [6]. Group 4: Regulatory Enhancements - The meeting emphasizes the need for a new regulatory framework for listed companies to improve quality and investor protection, which is essential for high-quality market development [8]. - The proposed regulations aim to clarify responsibilities, increase penalties for violations, and enhance transparency and stability in the A-share market [8][9]. Group 5: Strategic Planning - The meeting calls for the development of a comprehensive "14th Five-Year" plan for the capital market, focusing on creating a robust, open, innovative, and sustainable market ecosystem [9]. - The plan will address the need for differentiated institutional arrangements to direct capital towards key sectors such as hard technology and green development [9].

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the need to deepen comprehensive reforms in capital market investment and financing to support stable employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, contributing to high-quality economic development and a good start to the 14th Five-Year Plan [1] Group 1: Market Stability and Company Governance - The meeting highlights the importance of enhancing the intrinsic stability of the market by improving the quality of listed companies, promoting long-term capital inflow, and establishing mechanisms for market stability and expectation guidance [2] - A new round of corporate governance initiatives will be launched to enhance risk prevention capabilities and promote high-quality development of listed companies [2][3] - The focus will be on transparency in shareholding structures, board independence, internal control systems, and the quality of information disclosure to strengthen corporate governance [3] Group 2: Long-term Capital Inflow - The meeting calls for the implementation of long-term assessment mechanisms for institutional investors, which is crucial for stabilizing capital inflow and supporting the transformation and innovation of the real economy [4][5] - The introduction of long-term assessment mechanisms is expected to guide funds towards long-term value and enhance market resilience [5] Group 3: "Double Innovation" Board Reforms - The meeting proposes to deepen reforms in the ChiNext board and accelerate the implementation of the "1+6" reform measures for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board to better serve technological self-reliance [8][9] - Reforms will focus on optimizing listing standards, enhancing financing flexibility, and improving corporate governance and investor returns [8][9] Group 4: Regulatory Enhancements - The meeting emphasizes the need for stricter regulatory measures and the introduction of a new regulatory framework for listed companies to improve quality and investor protection [10] - The proposed regulations aim to clarify responsibilities, enhance penalties for violations, and improve the operational and governance conditions of listed companies [10][11] Group 5: Strategic Planning for Capital Market Development - The meeting outlines the need for a scientific approach to the 14th Five-Year Plan for capital market development, focusing on creating a robust, open, innovative, and sustainable market ecosystem [11] - Key areas of focus include improving the institutional framework, optimizing capital supply structures, and enhancing legal regulations and investor protection [11]

Core Points - The meeting emphasized the importance of the "15th Five-Year Plan" period as a critical phase for achieving socialist modernization and advancing the "Three Highs and Four New" blueprint for Changsha [4][5][6] - The meeting highlighted the need for high-quality development, focusing on economic growth, social welfare, and cultural advancement, while addressing both opportunities and challenges [6][8][10] Group 1: Economic Development - The meeting called for the establishment of a modern industrial system and the promotion of advanced manufacturing as a key focus for economic development [7] - It emphasized the importance of expanding domestic demand and building an international consumption center city to enhance economic resilience [8] - The meeting outlined the goal of achieving significant progress in economic strength, technological capability, and overall competitiveness by 2035 [6][10] Group 2: Social and Cultural Development - The meeting stressed the need to improve the quality of life for citizens and promote common prosperity through better employment, education, and social security systems [9] - It highlighted the importance of cultural development and the integration of culture with technology and tourism to enhance cultural influence [9] - The meeting called for a commitment to green transformation and environmental sustainability as part of the broader development strategy [10] Group 3: Governance and Leadership - The meeting underscored the necessity of maintaining comprehensive party leadership and enhancing governance capabilities to ensure effective implementation of the development plans [10][11] - It emphasized the importance of collaboration and unity among all sectors to achieve the goals set forth in the "15th Five-Year Plan" [11] - The meeting called for a proactive approach to address safety, stability, and emergency response in the context of ongoing development efforts [10]

Group 1 - The core conclusion of the report emphasizes the stable growth foundation of the defense industry, driven by continuous increases in national defense spending, with a budget of 1.78 trillion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.15% [32][38] - The report highlights the importance of the military aircraft industry chain as the main growth logic, with a focus on the generational upgrade of advanced fighter jets and breakthroughs in domestic aero-engine technology [84] - The report suggests that the military-civilian integration strategy will provide long-term alpha for military enterprises, transitioning from revenue expansion to high-quality development [82][84] Group 2 - The military industry outperformed the broader market, with the CITIC Military Industry Index yielding 16.6% as of November 30, 2025, surpassing the CSI 300 by 1.5 percentage points but lagging behind the ChiNext by 26% [11][15] - The report indicates that the military industry is currently ranked 16th out of 30 in terms of performance among CITIC's primary industry indices [15] - The report notes that the military industry’s valuation is at a high level, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 99.27, placing it in the 80th percentile historically over the past decade [21] Group 3 - The report identifies key areas of focus within the military sector, including infrared technology, laser weapons, and military trade, suggesting specific companies for investment [84] - The report discusses the increasing global military trade, particularly in aircraft, which is projected to account for 43.62% of the military trade market in 2024, with missiles and artillery also showing significant growth [79] - The report emphasizes the potential of laser weapons in counter-drone applications, highlighting their advantages such as high precision and low cost [69][70]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Overall, the demand side of coking coal and coke may not have much driving force. On the supply side, domestic coal mines are expected to face policy constraints on coal production release in the future, and it is difficult to have a significant increase in supply. The increment of Mongolian coal imports is expected to be an important supplement to domestic production, with significant potential for growth. Coke production capacity is still in an over - supply stage, and coke enterprises' profits are expected to remain under pressure in 2026, generally following coking coal. However, as it is the beginning of the 15th Five - Year Plan, the country's macro - policies are expected to be positive, and the market may bottom out and rebound if the "anti - involution" policy is implemented [8]. Summary by Directory Annual Viewpoint and Strategy - **Supply**: In the first half of 2025, coking coal imports were lower year - on - year, mainly due to high inventories and weak demand. In the second half, Mongolian coal imports rebounded. In 2026, with a cap on domestic coal production, Mongolian coal is expected to be an important supply supplement. China's coke production from January to October 2025 was 419 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. In 2026, coke production may remain flat year - on - year [8]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand is differentiated, with strong plate demand and weak building material demand, weak domestic demand and strong export demand. Steel exports are expected to remain strong in 2026, but domestic demand is still a concern. Real estate investment and new construction data are expected to decline by double - digits year - on - year, and manufacturing investment may also face a slowdown [8]. - **Inventory**: In the first half of 2025, coking coal inventory was highly differentiated between upstream and downstream, with upstream inventory reaching a record high and downstream inventory remaining low. In the second half, inventory transferred from upstream to downstream. Overall, coking coal inventory decreased. Coke inventory in steel mills, ports, and coking plants also decreased, with an average inventory level higher than last year [8]. - **Viewpoint**: The demand for coking coal and coke may lack driving force. Domestic coal production is restricted by policies, and imports mainly depend on Mongolian coal. Coke production capacity is in surplus, and coke enterprises' profits are expected to be under pressure in 2026, generally following coking coal. However, positive macro - policies may lead to a market rebound [8]. - **Strategy**: After the coking coal main contract stabilizes after a pullback, it can be bought in batches, with a reference support level of 900 - 950 yuan/ton [8]. Market Review - **Q1**: Coking coal and coke continued to decline due to oversupply, with prices moving down. Domestic spot prices weakened, and upstream inventory increased due to insufficient downstream demand [14]. - **Q2**: Coking coal and coke remained weak, testing cost support. Global macro - disturbances and high inventory led to price drops, and the supply - demand mismatch persisted [14]. - **Q3**: Coking coal and coke prices rebounded significantly due to tightened supply expectations caused by coal production checks [14]. - **Q4**: Coking coal and coke prices first rose and then fell. Supply tightened in October, but the market sentiment weakened in November due to energy supply guarantee signals [14]. International Situation - **Global economic growth**: Global steel production growth has slowed down, with developed economies recovering weakly. Asian regions led by India are a new growth pole for iron ore demand, but it is difficult to fully offset China's decline [18]. - **Supply country pattern**: Australia, the US, and Canada are major suppliers of high - quality coking coal, but their exports to China are affected by various factors [18]. - **Global coking coal trade flow**: Mongolia and Russia's export increments are being released, and their coking coal imports are important variables that can impact the domestic market [18]. - **"Green premium" institutionalization**: The global carbon pricing system is forcing the steel industry to transform to a low - carbon path, which will affect long - term coking coal demand [18]. Domestic Situation - **Real estate**: In 2025, the new construction area decreased by 20% year - on - year, and the decline in the real estate market reduced the demand elasticity for coking coal and coke [22]. - **Infrastructure**: In 2026, fiscal stimulus for traditional infrastructure will be weaker, and policies will focus on high - strength and special steel fields, with limited impact on coking coal and coke demand [22]. - **Manufacturing**: Exports of automobiles, home appliances, and ships remain stable, but steel mills' profit margins are compressed, and it is difficult to achieve positive growth in crude steel production [22]. - **Coal consumption**: Coal consumption will peak during the 15th Five - Year Plan and then enter a 10 - year plateau. The policy focus will shift from "supply guarantee" to "carbon control + safety" [22]. - **Coal price mechanism**: In 2026, a new mechanism for thermal coal long - term contracts will be implemented, with more market - oriented pricing and a narrower price fluctuation range, which will indirectly provide a valuation anchor for coking coal [22]. Macroeconomic Policies - **High - quality development**: The steel raw material market will build a policy support system around "low - carbon transformation, resource security, and structural optimization" during the 15th Five - Year Plan, and the traditional supply - demand logic is being broken [27]. - **Green and low - carbon policies**: Green and low - carbon policies will be intensified, and the proportion of electric arc furnace steel is expected to increase to 20% - 25% to achieve carbon reduction goals [27]. - **"Anti - involution" and supply - side reform**: The 15th Five - Year Plan will emphasize high - quality development, and policies on coal and other traditional industries will be more restrictive, with tightened coal production capacity and long - term supervision on over - production [27]. Fundamentals - **Industrial chain structure**: Multiple charts show the price trends of coking coal and coke contracts, spreads between contracts, spot prices, inventory levels, import volumes, production rates, and output of related enterprises [33][38][42] - **Inventory**: As of December 12, 2025, the raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines increased slightly compared to the beginning of the year, while the clean coal inventory decreased by 33.36%. Overall, coking coal inventory decreased in 2025. Coke inventory in steel mills, ports, and coking plants also showed a downward trend [59]. - **Imports**: From January to October 2025, coking coal imports decreased by 4.8% year - on - year, with a 1% decrease in Mongolian coal imports. Australian coal imports decreased by 10%, and Russian coal imports increased by 4%. In 2026, Mongolian coal imports are expected to be an important supply supplement [73][77]. - **Production**: From January to October 2025, China's raw coal production was 3.97 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%, and coke production was 419 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. In 2026, coke production is expected to remain flat year - on - year [81][83]. - **Demand**: In 2025, the average daily hot metal production was close to 2.38 million tons per day, a year - on - year increase of nearly 4%. From January to November 2025, steel exports reached 107.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.33%. In 2026, steel exports are expected to remain strong, but domestic demand is still a concern [90]. - **Profit**: The profit of independent coking plants is significantly affected by profit levels. In 2025, the profit per ton of coke decreased year - on - year, and there were only opportunities for repair when coking coal prices decreased or steel mills replenished inventory [104]. Technical Analysis - Technically, the prices of coking coal and coke are in a downward channel, with moving averages in a bearish arrangement and no obvious signs of a stop - fall. It is expected that there will be strong support around 900 yuan/ton on the weekly Bollinger Bands lower rail, and it is necessary to observe whether the coking coal price can stop falling and stabilize around this level [108].

Group 1 - The event "Chief Strategy Forum Annual Offline Salon: Forecasting the 14th Five-Year Plan" will take place on December 20, focusing on investment opportunities and challenges in the changing economic landscape [2][3] - The forum will feature prominent experts, including Professor Wei Zongyou from Fudan University and Chief Economist Xiao Lisheng from Jiufang Investment, discussing international dynamics and China's economic trends [2][6] - The agenda includes a strategy roundtable on identifying investment opportunities in the "golden tracks" of the 14th Five-Year Plan, led by experts from Morgan Asset Management and Zheshang Securities [8][10][12] Group 2 - The industry roundtable will address the rebound logic in the electric and new energy sectors, with insights from analysts at Huajin Securities [14] - Discussions will also cover investment logic in the computer industry under the paradigm shift of AI applications, led by a senior analyst from China Galaxy Securities [16] - The "Chief Strategy Forum" is recognized for its professional and authoritative insights, bringing together top analysts and industry experts to discuss macroeconomic trends and investment strategies [18]