Core Viewpoint - The market is currently focused on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy path and the potential for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, with expectations for three rate cuts increasing due to easing tensions in trade and geopolitical conflicts [5]. Macroeconomic Summary - The U.S. core PCE price index for May recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, surpassing the expected 2.6%, marking the highest level since February 2025 [2]. - The U.S. first-quarter real GDP annualized rate declined by 0.5%, worse than the expected decline of 0.2% [2]. - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 236,000, with the previous value revised to 246,000 [2]. - The market is observing a divergence within the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate cuts, with some officials open to cuts as early as July, while others suggest it may be premature [2]. Commodity Market Summary - The silver market is influenced by the performance of gold; if gold experiences a significant pullback, silver prices may also adjust, but if gold maintains a high-level fluctuation, silver could see upward momentum [4]. - Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are easing, which has a limited negative impact on gold prices, as previous influences on gold were relatively minor [3]. - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in July with a probability of 79.3%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is at 20.7% [4]. Investment Outlook - The overall sentiment in the precious metals market remains one of cautious adjustment, with expectations of rate cuts providing some support for gold and silver prices [5]. - The potential for significant price movements in precious metals is limited in the short term, with both gold and silver expected to remain in a state of fluctuation [5].

欧元/美元在6月最后一周达到1.1754，创下自2021年9月以来的最高点。周五收盘时，该货币对在1.1720附近整理，保持其积极的动能。 中东停火 美元（USD）在本周开局强劲，因中东冲突升级而对大多数主要对手货币大幅上涨。周末，美国对伊朗铀设施发动了大规模攻击，特朗普总统通过社交媒 体报告称他们已"摧毁"了核计划。德黑兰则以导弹袭击美国在卡塔尔的军事基地进行报复，市场参与者感到恐慌。 然而，周一晚些时候，特朗普总统宣布伊朗与以色列之间的停火，经过大约两周的导弹攻击交锋。尽管最初对潜在停火的怀疑，金融市场迅速转向乐观。 随着冲突实际降温，风险偏好占据主导地位。因此，原油价格暴跌，全球股市上涨，美元下跌。 美联储主席鲍威尔半年度证词 在美联储（Fed）主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔在国会就货币政策作证后，美元承压。在他的半年度出席中，鲍威尔降低了对7月降息的预期，因对关税对通胀影响 的不确定性。同时，鲍威尔重申经济依然稳健，并表示美国没有衰退。最后，鲍威尔指出，特朗普总统对降息的要求对美联储的政策没有影响。 这引发了特朗普的愤怒。 在荷兰举行的北约首脑会议后，他声称："我们没有通胀。我们有一个巨大的经济。数千亿美元的关税 ...

Group 1 - Fitch Ratings has revised its global economic growth forecast for this year from 1.9% to 2.2%, and next year's forecast from 2% to 2.2%, although these figures remain below last year's growth of 2.9% and the long-term average of 2.7% [1][3] - The adjustment is primarily due to the recent improvement in the international trade environment, with reduced tariff disputes between the US and major trading partners alleviating recession concerns [3][5] - The economic growth forecast for the Eurozone has been slightly upgraded to 0.8% from a previous estimate of 0.6%, but remains constrained by energy price volatility and weak manufacturing [5][6] Group 2 - The US economic growth forecast for 2022 has been raised from 1.2% to 1.5%, indicating short-term economic resilience, although domestic demand may slow in the latter half of the year [3][5] - The uncertainty surrounding global trade remains, with the effective tariff rate in the US currently at 14.2%, potentially rising to nearly 18%, which could exert pressure on global supply chains and inflation [5][6] - Fitch warns that despite short-term improvements, the global economy faces the most severe trade risks since the 1930s, with tariff policy uncertainty continuing to suppress business investment and consumer confidence [6]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report posits that silver prices have room for further increase. The Fed is likely to enter a new round of easing cycle in the second half of the year, driven by the heavy interest burden on US Treasury bonds due to the high policy - rate environment and the expected expansion of US fiscal deficits. This will drive up the price of silver [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Trump Administration's Tax - Cut Policy and US Treasury Bond Issuance Pressure - The "Beautiful Big Bill" promoted by the Trump administration, which includes extending the main provisions of the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and the state and local tax (SALT) deduction cap expiring in 2025, is expected to reduce US fiscal revenue by $3.54 trillion and increase the overall deficit by $2.77 trillion over the next ten fiscal years. The expansion of the US fiscal deficit is positively correlated with the gold price in the medium - term, and it has already driven the international gold price to a record high in the first half of the year [4]. - Affected by the US debt ceiling issue, the net issuance of US Treasury bonds was low in the first half of the year. As of May 2025, the cumulative net issuance of US Treasury bonds was $281.3 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 56.1%. The balance of the US Treasury's cash account decreased from $811.5 billion on January 29 to $334.6 billion in the week of June 25. After the debt ceiling issue is resolved, there is a financing gap of over $500 billion in the Treasury's cash account, indicating significant issuance pressure on US Treasury bonds in the second half of the year [5]. 3.2 Certainty of Fed Policy Rate Cut and Its Driving Factors - The Fed maintains a cautious attitude towards rate cuts due to potential inflation risks from tariff policies. However, the increase in the US import price index excluding food and energy is much lower than that during 2020 - 2022. US inflation data in May 2025 showed a decline compared to expectations and previous values. In the past, the Fed cut rates during the US election, indicating that its monetary policy is not completely free from political influence [9]. - In the recent interest - rate meeting, the Fed decided to keep the interest rate in the range of 4.25% - 4.50%. The dot - plot's median interest - rate expectations for 2025 remained at 3.9%, but were raised for 2026 and 2027. Seven voting members expect no rate cut this year, up from four in March. Powell believes the current interest - rate level is appropriate and that tariff - driven inflation may continue [10][11]. - President Trump is dissatisfied with the Fed's interest - rate policy, stating that a rate cut could save the US fiscal expenditure up to $1 trillion. As of May 2025, the cumulative interest expenditure on US Treasury bonds has reached $776 billion, and high interest rates will further increase the deficit during the subsequent concentrated issuance of Treasury bonds [12]. - There is a clear divergence within the Fed regarding the rate - cut rhythm. Fed Governor Waller and Vice - Chair Bowman are in favor of rate cuts. Considering the maintenance of the US dollar's credit and the large interest expenditure squeezing the overall fiscal expenditure, the Fed is certain to cut the policy rate in the second half of the year. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy for silver prices [13].

钟俊轩 贵金属研究员 从业资格号：F03112694 交易咨询号：Z0022090 电话：0755-23375141 邮箱： zhongjunxuan@wkqh.cn 贵金属 沪金跌 0.89 %，报 765.54 元/克，沪银跌 1.04 %，报 8718.00 元/千克；COMEX 金跌 1.85 %， 报 3286.10 美元/盎司，COMEX 银跌 2.06 %，报 36.17 美元/盎司； 美国 10 年期国债收益率 报 4.29%，美元指数报 97.14 ； 市场展望： 当前美联储的货币政策已不完全具备"独立性"，就业和通胀数据并非其维持高息环境的主要 原因：美联储以通胀和就业为双重政策目标，而关税政策所带来的潜在通胀风险则是联储主席 鲍威尔对于降息维持谨慎态度的主要原因。然而从实际进口的价格压力来看，美国剔除食品和 能源的进口价格指数由今年 1 月份的 109.3 上升至对等关税宣布后五月份的 110.2，其幅度远 低于 2020-2022 年期间受到疫情后海外宽松政策以及俄乌冲突所带来进口价格指数的上升。美 国通胀数据方面，美国 5 月 CPI 同比值为 2.4%，低于预期和前值的 2.5%， ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction has garnered significant market attention, with notable internal disagreements among officials regarding the policy path, leading to an increased probability of interest rate cuts in July [1] - Research indicates that certain members, such as Waller and Bowman, support a July rate cut under specific conditions, while hawkish representative Harker remains cautious about rate cuts within the year [1] - Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari anticipates two rate cuts this year, with the first cut potentially occurring in September, while also warning about the lagging impact of tariffs on inflation and emphasizing the need for policy flexibility [1] Group 2 - The ongoing tariff discussions have been pushing inflation expectations higher, with May data exceeding expectations, further reinforcing the Fed's stance of maintaining higher rates for a longer duration [1] - Based on data analysis, the outlook for gold is considered bearish in the upcoming week [1]

周度报告-黄金 市场风险偏好回升，黄金承压下挫 | [Table_Rank] 走势评级： | 黄金：看跌 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 6 | 月 | 29 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★市场综述： 伦敦金跌 2.8%至 3274 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.28%，通胀 预期 2.3%，实际利率降至 1.97%，美元指数跌 1.32%至 97.4，标普 500 指数涨 3.44%，离岸人民币小幅升值，内外价差窄幅波动。 金价回调，一方面是地缘政治风险降温，美国打击伊朗核设施后 加快了伊朗和以色列的停火进程，美国没有朝着深陷战争泥潭的 方向发展，伊朗的回应也非常克制，原油价格基本回吐涨幅，减 少了美国通胀上行风险。一方面是美国经济尚未衰退，美联储维 持按兵不动暂停降息的状态，市场缺乏增量利多，鲍威尔在国会 就半年度货币政策报告作证词，表态鹰派，关税带来的不确定性 和通胀上行风险导致美联储对降息较为谨慎，同时美联储内部的 分歧也在增加，沃勒和鲍曼先后表态支持最快 ...

文章没有太多华丽的语言与鸡汤，一直如此，我相信每一位读者缺乏的不是鸡汤，而是实实在在的分析与强 大的理论，我是翁富豪老师，最后祝大家交易愉快。免责申明:以上纯属个人观点分享，不构成操作建议，投 资有风险，盈亏自负。 从黄金4小时来看，黄金周五冲高回落，日线收十字星。虽此前有小阳线，但反弹乏力且无持续性，未形成有 效突破，显示自3452高点以来的调整未结束，日内仍有下行空间。当前呈阴跌态势，不宜等大幅反弹后做 空，反弹过大会减弱下跌动能。周五亚市早盘金价续跌逼近3280支撑位，该区域支撑密集，直接追空风险 大。综上所述，下周黄金翁富豪建议维持反弹做空策略：反弹至3297-3302区间做空，止损3310，目标3290- 3270。 本周美联储货币政策动向成为市场焦点，多位官员的公开表态显示其内部在政策路径上存在显著分歧，7月降 息可能性显著增加。最新研究报告指出，理事沃勒和鲍曼在特定条件下支持7月降息，而鹰派代表哈克则对年 内降息持审慎立场。明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利最新表态：预计美联储年内实施两次降息，首次降息窗 口或在9月开启；同时警示关税对通胀的滞后效应，强调政策制定需保持灵活性。年内关税言论持续推升通胀 ...

文章没有太多华丽的语言与鸡汤，一直如此，我相信每一位读者缺乏的不是鸡汤，而是实实在在的分析与强 大的理论，我是翁富豪老师，最后祝大家交易愉快。免责申明:以上纯属个人观点分享，不构成操作建议，投 资有风险，盈亏自负。 黄金昨日呈现冲高回落走势，日线收出十字星形态。尽管此前收出小阳线，但反弹力度不足且缺乏持续性， 未能形成有效上行突破，表明黄金自3452高点以来的调整趋势尚未完结，日内仍存下行空间。当前行情呈现 阴跌特征，不宜期待价格大幅反弹后进场做空——反弹幅度扩大会削弱下行动能。周五亚市早盘金价延续跌 势，逐步逼近3280支撑位，该区域支撑结构密集，直接追空风险较高，目前翁富豪建议维持反弹做空策略， 反弹至3297-3302区域做空，止损在3310，目标看向3290-3270 周五（6月27日）北京时间20:30，美国商务部经济分析局发布5月个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数，该数据作 为美联储核心通胀监测指标，揭示了美国经济在通胀压力与消费动能间的博弈态势。叠加关税政策预期引发 的市场避险情绪，投资者对美联储货币政策路径的预期呈现分化。数据公布后，金融市场即时响应：美元指 数短线回落约10个基点，折射市场对通胀 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Boston Fed President Collins signals a personal inclination towards interest rate cuts later this year, but emphasizes high uncertainty in policy direction due to potential inflationary pressures from tariffs [1][3]. Economic Conditions - The current U.S. economic fundamentals are solid, and monetary policy is in a "good position," but future adjustments will heavily depend on data, particularly the impact of tariffs on inflation [3][5]. - The cancellation of some extreme tariffs has alleviated some inflationary pressures, but the remaining tariffs' effects are not fully realized, with core PCE expected to remain "slightly above" 3% by year-end, significantly above the Fed's 2% target [3][5]. Inflation and Tariff Impact - As businesses complete inventory adjustments, tariffed goods are expected to gradually enter the supply chain, potentially leading to further inflation in the coming months [5]. - If price pressures persist, the Fed may need to delay rate cuts or reassess its policy path [5][8]. Fed's Internal Dynamics - The recent Fed meeting maintained interest rates in the 4.25% to 4.5% range, with notable internal divisions on the timing of rate cuts. Some members advocate for easing as early as July, while others, including Powell, prefer a wait-and-see approach [5][8]. - Collins' stance is more centrist, neither ruling out the possibility of rate cuts this year nor dismissing the potential for policy shifts due to external shocks [5][8]. Market Expectations - Market analysis suggests that Collins' comments reinforce the Fed's "data-dependent" stance. If inflation rises again due to tariffs, the Fed may need to maintain high rates longer; conversely, signs of economic weakness could lead to earlier rate cuts [8]. - Currently, futures markets are betting on the earliest rate cut in September, but this expectation may fluctuate with policy uncertainties [8].