Group 1: Investment Strategy Overview - The report emphasizes that the stock market is at a technical support level, but volatility has reached a new low since 2024, indicating that a trend change may be imminent [5][21]. - The A-share market's trading volume reached 1.12 trillion, an increase of 54.9 billion compared to the previous trading day, with market focus on stablecoins, port shipping, and solid-state batteries [21]. - The report suggests that the probability of an upward trend in the index is low, and managing positions is the best strategy [21]. Group 2: Bond Market Insights - The bond market is expected to benefit from inflows of risk-averse capital, as the overall market remains volatile with a lack of positive news [18][8]. - The report notes that the bond market may regain upward momentum due to increased demand for safe-haven assets [8]. Group 3: Foreign Exchange Market Analysis - The onshore RMB against the USD was reported at 7.1876, an increase of 91 basis points from the previous close, indicating a potential strengthening of the RMB [33]. - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term trend for the USD remains bearish [33]. Group 4: Commodity Market Trends - The Wenhua Commodity Index fell by 0.13%, with strong performance in the energy sector but poor performance in agricultural and chemical products [38]. - The report advises caution for investors who have not participated at lower levels, suggesting a wait-and-see approach due to high volatility in oil and related products [38].

在美国对伊朗进行军事打击后，受益于传统的避险地位，美元在周一早盘交易中飙升，但分析师们警告 称，这种涨势可能只是昙花一现。 丹斯克银行固定收益与外汇研究部的Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen表示："在美国上周末袭击伊朗后，中东危 机的升级预计将导致市场出现一些传统的避险效应，例如油价上涨、股价下跌和美元走强。" 尽管出现了初步反弹，但华尔街中日益形成的共识表明，美元的强势可能只是暂时的。 一些分析师表示，中东冲突只是掩盖了对美国财政政策、贸易战以及国际对美国资产需求减弱的担忧， 一旦由危机驱动的即时需求消退，这些问题可能会重新成为焦点。反映长期担忧的是，美元指数今年已 下跌超过8%。 他在周一早间的报告中说，"这是一个大胆的判断，但我怀疑霍尔木兹海峡会被封锁，不过我们将能避 免卖方吹捧的每桶100-130美元的油价，美国也可能已将能源基础设施作为其支持以色列的红线。" 然而，一个关键的避险需求指标——美国国债市场似乎通过其异常平淡的反应，讲述了一个完全不同的 故事。 美元的短期强势与市场对伊朗可能如何报复的恐惧有关，其中对重要石油运输通道霍尔木兹海峡被关闭 的担忧首当其冲。 然而，加拿大皇家银行资 ...

Geopolitical Risks and Market Reactions - The recent U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have become a focal point for the market, despite the expectation that geopolitical risks would increase demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The market remains cautious, partly due to the hawkish stance maintained by Federal Reserve officials [1] - If Iran were to close the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could exceed $100, leading to heightened fear and panic among investors [1] Currency Volatility - The volatility of the USD/JPY pair is the highest across all time frames, particularly with a one-month volatility rate of -0.028 [2] - The USD/JPY pair rose to 147.39 yen following the U.S. attack on Iran, with traders holding $12.5 billion in yen long positions [2] - The Japanese yen has depreciated by 2.4% against the dollar since the Israeli missile strikes on Iranian targets began [2] Impact on Japan's Economy - Japan's heavy reliance on imported oil makes it vulnerable to rising oil prices, which threaten its trade balance and weaken the yen's attractiveness [3] - The spike in oil prices has worsened Japan's trade conditions, further diminishing its economic competitiveness [3] Eurozone Economic Indicators - The Eurozone's natural gas prices are highly correlated with the euro exchange rate, with rising gas prices likely to weaken the euro and reduce the current account surplus [5] - Natural gas prices have surged from approximately $2.8 to over $4 since late April, indicating a potential further shrinkage of the Eurozone's surplus [6] - The Eurozone's economic growth exceeded expectations at the beginning of the year, but lost momentum in April due to U.S. tariff policies [6] Swiss Franc and Safe-Haven Demand - The Swiss franc is supported by safe-haven demand and signals from the Swiss National Bank indicating no inclination to lower interest rates further [7] - The current USD/CHF pair is trading within a range established over the past week, with market participants remaining cautious about directional choices [7] UK Economic Activity - The UK's PMI data exceeded expectations, yet the GBP/USD exchange rate fell by 0.1% to $1.3430, indicating a muted market reaction [8] - Manufacturing activity in the UK has contracted for the ninth consecutive month, although the contraction rate is the smallest since January [8] - The June services PMI rose from 50.9 to 51.3, while the manufacturing PMI improved from 46.4 to 47.7, suggesting a slight recovery despite ongoing challenges [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is driven by factors such as the escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, inflation concerns, and the uncertainty of monetary policy, but the intraday risk - aversion sentiment has declined [3]. - Copper prices are likely to oscillate around 78,000 yuan per ton in the short - term, with greater upward pressure and relatively weaker downward support due to the possible weakening of demand [14]. - Aluminum's fundamentals show sufficient supply and gradually weakening demand. Low inventory and continuous de - stocking are the core factors supporting aluminum prices in the short - term, and it may maintain high - level oscillations in the short - term and be bearish in the medium - to - long - term [30]. - Zinc's supply is gradually becoming looser, but the transmission from ore to ingot needs time. Demand remains stable, and short - term focus is on macro data and market sentiment [59]. - For nickel, potential audits in Indonesia may affect production. Nickel ore is expected to stabilize, nickel - iron prices are down, stainless - steel demand is weak in the off - season, and sulfuric acid nickel prices are low and stable [72]. - Tin prices are expected to remain stable in the next week, with support from low inventory and under - recovery of upstream mines, and pressure from weakening downstream demand [89]. - Lithium carbonate's mid - term fundamentals are bearish, with high inventory suppressing price increases, and it is expected to be in a weakly oscillating state recently [104]. - The silicon industry chain has a relatively loose supply and slightly improved demand. The southwest region's industrial silicon enterprises'复产 expectations are being realized, and downstream demand varies [114]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Factors**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East, inflation concerns, and monetary policy uncertainty drive funds into the gold market [3]. - **Price Data**: Various price charts of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, and their relationships with factors like the US dollar index and US Treasury real interest rates are presented [4][9] Copper - **Price Outlook**: Short - term oscillation around 78,000 yuan per ton, with upward pressure and weak downward support [14]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper futures are provided [15]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of copper spot in different regions, as well as import profit and loss and other data are given [19][23] - **Inventory Data**: The latest inventory data of SHFE and LME copper, and their changes are presented [27][28] Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Supply is close to the industry ceiling, demand is gradually weakening, low inventory and continuous de - stocking support prices in the short - term, and it is bearish in the medium - to - long - term [30]. - **Alumina**: Guinea's Axis mine may have short - term production suspension, and the market is in a state of inventory accumulation and price oscillation [31]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Cost is strongly supported, supply is excessive, demand growth may slow down, and it may oscillate strongly in the short - term with a BACK structure [32]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of aluminum and alumina futures and spot are provided [34][52] Zinc - **Fundamentals**: Supply is gradually loosening, but the transmission to the ingot end is not complete. Demand is stable, and short - term focus is on macro data and inventory [59]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of zinc futures and spot are provided [60][68] Nickel - **Industry Impact**: Indonesian audits may affect nickel intermediate products and stainless - steel production. Nickel ore is stable, nickel - iron prices are down, stainless - steel demand is weak, and sulfuric acid nickel prices are low and stable [72]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of nickel and stainless - steel futures and related raw materials are provided [73][79] Tin - **Price Outlook**: Prices are expected to remain stable, with support from inventory and mine supply, and pressure from weakening demand [89]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of tin futures and spot are provided [90][98] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: Mid - term fundamentals are bearish, with high inventory suppressing price increases, and it is expected to be weakly oscillating recently [104]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of lithium carbonate futures and spot are provided [105][111] Silicon Industry Chain - **Industry Conditions**: Supply is relatively loose, and demand is slightly improved. The southwest region's industrial silicon enterprises'复产 expectations are being realized, and downstream demand varies [114]. - **Price and Production Data**: The latest prices of industrial silicon spot and futures, and production - related data such as output and capacity utilization rate are provided [117][138]

过去七天，中东局势持续恶化却出现反常现象：在以色列与伊朗冲突不断升级的背景下，国际金价不升反降1.5%，这种与避险 逻辑相悖的走势令市场参与者倍感困惑。转折发生在北京时间6月22日凌晨，美国对伊朗三大核设施（纳坦兹、福尔多、阿拉 克）实施军事打击，标志着冲突进入全新阶段。 直接影响：2019年短暂封锁导致油价单周飙升12% 间接传导：能源通胀将强化黄金的抗通胀属性 伊朗方面反应迅速且强硬：在完成关键设施人员撤离后，其国家安全委员会立即通过决议，将美国在中东的军事存在列为"合法 打击目标"。这种直接对抗彻底粉碎了市场对局势可控的预期，黄金作为终极避险资产的定价逻辑正在被重新校准。 【三大核心风险推升避险需求】 1.冲突扩散风险 伊朗革命卫队已向波斯湾部署新型反舰导弹 地区代理人势力集体表态：胡塞武装中止停火、黎巴嫩真主党发动袭击、伊拉克民兵组织围攻美使馆 历史参照：2020年苏莱曼尼事件引发金价48小时暴涨3.2% 2.能源通道危机 霍尔木兹海峡承担全球20%石油运输，其封锁风险具有双重冲击： 多家机构分析，下周金价有望告别低迷，重返3400美元/盎司之上，甚至向3500美元发起攻势。对普通投资者来说，若中东局 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold futures declined due to a strengthening dollar, despite geopolitical tensions not driving the expected safe-haven demand for gold [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the U.S. attack on Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend, the market's reaction was muted, indicating a wait-and-see approach regarding Iran's next steps [1] - Analysts suggest that potential Iranian responses could include closing the Strait of Hormuz, increasing attacks on Israel, or retaliating against U.S. targets [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment - Current market sentiment remains cautious, with investors not fully distancing themselves from risk despite the geopolitical tensions [1] - The appreciation of the dollar has diminished gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][72]. Core Views - Precious Metals - Gold: Geopolitical issues abroad are escalating, and gold is expected to maintain a strong trend. As of June 20, the COMEX gold futures contract fell by 1.98% to $3,384.4 per ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF increased by 1.0% to 950.2 tons. The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% in June, aligning with market expectations. Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are anticipated due to U.S. policies, trade negotiations, and geopolitical uncertainties, but the demand for safe-haven assets will continue to support gold prices. In the medium to long term, macroeconomic uncertainties abroad will amplify gold's safe-haven attributes, and the weakening of the dollar's credibility is becoming increasingly evident, leading to a positive outlook for gold in the long term [3][6]. - Industrial Metals: Both copper and aluminum inventories are at low levels, and price centers are expected to rise. As of June 20, the LME copper futures contract rose by 0.1% to $9,660.5 per ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 145,900 tons as of June 19, with a slight increase of 100 tons. LME copper inventory stood at 99,200 tons, nearing historical lows. Despite being in the traditional off-season for downstream demand, the accumulation of inventory has been slow since June. Global visible inventory has further decreased since May, and the available days of global electrolytic copper continue to decline. Supply tightness is expected to become more pronounced, and the macroeconomic environment suggests that copper prices may gradually rise [4][5]. - Aluminum: As of June 20, the LME aluminum futures contract increased by 2.3% to $2,561.5 per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory reached 449,000 tons as of June 19, with a decrease of 11,000 tons. LME aluminum inventory continued to decline, and global electrolytic aluminum inventory levels are decreasing. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains high, with no immediate expectations for new projects. The rising aluminum water ratio may significantly impact the electrolytic aluminum spot market, leading to a downward trend in aluminum ingot inventory. In the medium term, the supply-demand gap is expected to widen, supporting a positive outlook for aluminum prices [5][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Nonferrous Metal Index Trends - As of June 20, 2025, the nonferrous metal index closed at 5,262.3 points, down 3.0% from the previous period. The precious metal index closed at 18,255.64 points, down 5.3%, while the industrial metal index closed at 1,925.73 points, down 3.2%. The energy metal index closed at 1,521.54 points, down 2.9%. During the same period, the CSI 300 index fell by 0.45% [9]. 2. Precious Metals - Gold is expected to maintain a strong trend due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and macroeconomic factors [3][6]. 3. Industrial Metals - Copper and aluminum inventories are low, with expectations for price increases due to supply-demand dynamics [4][5][6]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. For gold, the recommendation is to pay attention to Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining. For copper, the focus is on Zijin Mining. For aluminum, the recommendation is to consider Tianshan Aluminum [6][70].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are experiencing a downward trend influenced by the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy signals, with interest rate cut expectations reduced from three to two by the end of 2025 [1] - Despite a slight recovery in the dollar index, the tightening monetary policy remains a significant bearish factor for gold prices [1] - Global trade tensions and ongoing Middle East conflicts are boosting safe-haven demand, providing support for gold prices and limiting further declines [1] Group 2 - The current bullish momentum in gold is evident, with clear resistance at the 3380-3385 range, while the price has not breached the upward channel, maintaining a complete medium to long-term upward structure [3] - The daily chart shows a doji candlestick pattern, with prices retracing to the middle Bollinger Band, indicating a continued oscillating downward trend [3] - The suggested trading strategy includes shorting gold in the 3375-3380 range, with a stop loss at 3388 and a target of 3360-3340 [3]

周五（6月20日）亚洲时段，现货黄金震荡偏弱，黄金价格从日高3370回落近20美元，一度跌破3350美 元，随着中东地缘政治紧张局势的缓和削弱避险需求，以及美联储的通胀预警提高了降息前景的不确定 性，黄金周线迈向收跌。 【要闻速递】 金价似乎已经见顶，目前已连续第二个交易日下跌。将会有最新消息来弥补焦虑的市场和避险资产表现 平平之间的差距。 引发更广泛避险情绪的一个潜在因素是美国直接介入的可能性，这种可能性似乎越来越大。特朗普总统 一如既往地在这个问题上保持着他一贯的模糊态度。 不过，美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普的发言人表示，特朗普将在两周内决定是否加入以色列对伊朗的攻 击，这减轻人们对一场可能威胁能源流动并引发通胀的区域性战争的担忧。 紧张局势的缓解发生在美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔早些时候警告特朗普加征关税可能带来通胀风险之 后。这可能会阻碍美联储降息的空间，而这对黄金而言是不利的，因为黄金不支付利息，通常在低利率 环境中表现更好。 华尔街主要银行在黄金是否能够延续创纪录涨势的问题上出现分歧。高盛预测到明年金价将达到4000美 元，而花旗则认为到2026年金价将跌破3000美元。 【技术面分析】 周图：金价走势本 ...

基本面： 周五（6月20日）银价早盘窄幅震荡盘整，继续市场看涨多单布局。美联储对通胀风险的高度警惕降低了恢复降息的可能性，这对金价构成直接压力。市场 普遍认为，高利率环境会削弱黄金的吸引力，因为投资者更倾向于持有收益更高的资产，如债券或美元计价资产。与美联储的鹰派立场形成鲜明对比的是， 地缘政治紧张局势为金价提供了重要的避险支撑。2025年6月19日，以色列对伊朗核目标的轰炸以及伊朗对以色列医院的导弹和无人机袭击，标志着双方持 续一周的空中战争进一步升级。伊朗革命卫队声称其袭击针对以色列军事和情报设施，而以色列则指责伊朗蓄意攻击平民目标，违反国际法。以色列总理内 塔尼亚胡甚至表示，其空袭行动旨在动摇伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊政权的根基，迫使伊朗在核计划、弹道导弹及地区影响力上做出根本性让步。 此外，外交努力也在紧张进行中。据路透社报道，美国中东问题特使威特科夫与伊朗外长阿拉格齐通过多次电话沟通，试图通过外交途径化解危机。伊朗方 面表示，只有以色列停止袭击，德黑兰才会重返谈判桌。英国、法国、德国三国（E3）与欧盟也计划于6月20日在日内瓦与伊朗外长会晤，寻求外交解决方 案。这些外交动态表明，地缘政治风险短期内难以消退 ...