Core Insights - The company reported 1H25 performance in line with expectations, with revenue of $7.833 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, and a net profit of $628 million, up 14.2% year-on-year [1] Performance Overview - Milwaukee continues to outperform the industry, while Ryobi achieved high single-digit growth. In 1H25, power tools revenue reached $7.425 billion, growing 7.9% year-on-year, with Milwaukee's revenue increasing by 11.9% in local currency and Ryobi by 8.7% [1] - The floor care business saw revenue of $408 million, a decline of 4.6% year-on-year, primarily due to decreased demand for the VAX brand in the UK and Australia [1] - By region, North America generated $5.872 billion in revenue, up 7.5% year-on-year; Europe saw revenue of $1.401 billion, increasing by 11.9%; other regions contributed $560 million, down 6.5% [1] Profitability and Inventory Management - The company's gross margin improved to 40.3%, up 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, driven by growth in high-value products like Milwaukee and improved profitability in consumer brands [2] - The net profit margin for 1H25 was 8.0%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year [2] - R&D expenses as a percentage of revenue rose by 0.5 percentage points to 4.6%, while sales expenses increased by 0.2 percentage points to 17.2%. Management and financial expenses decreased by 0.9 and 0.2 percentage points to 9.5% and 0.7%, respectively [2] - Inventory increased by 6.61% year-on-year as the company raised finished goods stock to prepare for potential tariff changes in the second half of 2025 [2] Market Trends and Economic Indicators - Since 2025, U.S. housing sales have been declining, with new home sales down 6.6% year-on-year in June 2025, and existing home sales remaining flat [2] - Anticipated tariffs led to increased end-user orders and elevated inventory levels in the supply chain [3] - The actual annualized consumption of tools and hardware in the U.S. was $41.94 billion in March 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.8%. However, by June, this figure dropped to $39.95 billion, a decline of 3.4% year-on-year [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company maintains its EPS forecasts for 2025 and 2026 at $0.70 and $0.80, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 17.4 and 15.2 for 2025 and 2026 [3] - The target price is set at HKD 115.49, implying P/E ratios of 21.5 and 18.6 for 2025 and 2026, with a potential upside of 22.6% [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the oil industry is neutral [5] 2. Core Views - Due to the recent macroeconomic slowdown and OPEC's production increase, the market is under phased pressure. The current price level is neutrally evaluated, and volatility strategies are recommended. The market is mainly trading based on fundamentals, with no obvious weakening trend overall. Attention should be paid to the purchasing trends of China and India and subsequent logistics changes [4] - The core view of the report is neutral [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Factors Assessment - **OPEC Production**: Bullish. OPEC increased production further in September, and there is market discussion about the possible disruption of Russian oil supply due to sanctions [6] - **Macro**: Bearish. The non - farm payroll data declined significantly, and the market is worried about a recession again [6] - **SPR**: Bullish. The US SPR is being replenished at a rate of about 30,000 - 50,000 barrels per day, mainly for slow and low - cost restocking [6] - **Geopolitics & Sanctions**: Bullish. The US has tightened sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil, pushing up the price of Middle Eastern oil [6] - **Downstream Demand**: Neutral. The spot premium shows a marginal weakening trend [6] - **Shale Oil**: Neutral. Last week's production was 13.28 million barrels per day, and the number of rigs remained at 415. There is a downward trend in the number of rigs, which will gradually lead to a decrease in production [6] 3.2 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **Production**: From 2024Q1 to 2026Q4, the total production shows fluctuations. OPEC production has its own adjustment rhythm, and non - OPEC production also changes. The adjustment of the balance sheet shows changes in production in different quarters [7] - **Demand**: Total demand also fluctuates over the quarters from 2024Q1 to 2026Q4. OECD and non - OECD demand have their own trends, and the Call On OPEC also varies [7] - **Surplus**: The surplus amount shows positive and negative values in different quarters, indicating the balance between supply and demand in the market [7] 3.3 Macroeconomic Data - The non - farm payroll data on Friday was poor. In July, the number of new non - farm jobs increased by only 73,000, the lowest since October 2024. The previous two months' data was revised down by 258,000. The private sector's momentum has slowed significantly, and wage growth is also declining [10] - Due to the significant weakening of the labor market, the market's expectation of interest rate cuts has increased. The probability of a 25 - BP interest rate cut in September is over 90%, and there are expected to be three interest rate cuts this year (September, October, December), each by 25 BP. The market is worried about an economic recession again, and risk assets are under phased pressure [13] 3.4 Market Conditions - Affected by the increase in refinery maintenance, the North Sea premium has a phased weakening trend. As of August 7, CFD and DFL closed at $1.02/barrel and $1.08/barrel respectively [19] - Refinery operations reached a new high, and commercial crude oil inventories continued to decline [21] - Recently, the floating storage (especially in - transit inventory) has decreased significantly. The in - transit inventory and floating storage decreased by 29.1 million barrels and 2.6 million barrels respectively on a weekly basis, which has a significant suppressing effect on the market [24] - Saudi Arabia announced its September premium. For light, medium, and heavy crude oil, the adjustments for shipments to the Americas, Europe, and Asia are different. Most of the Middle East's production increase is absorbed by Asia, and attention should be paid to the continuous purchasing of India and China [25] 3.5 Futures Market Data - As of August 7, the WTI near - term spread closed at $0.98/barrel, the 1 - 6 spread was $2.5/barrel; the Brent near - term spread was $0.62/barrel, the 1 - 6 spread was $1.6/barrel; the SC near - term spread was 3.8 yuan/barrel [30] - In the week of July 29, WTI funds' long positions increased by 3,144 lots, short positions increased by 3,994 lots, and net long positions decreased by 850 lots. Brent funds' long positions increased by 13,180 lots, short positions decreased by 9,548 lots, and net long positions increased by 22,730 lots [46][51]

Key Points - The financial market is set to experience a series of critical data releases and events this week, with a focus on the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision and the U.S. July Consumer Price Index (CPI) [1] - The Australian Reserve Bank unexpectedly maintained the official cash rate (OCR) at 3.85% in July, but market expectations lean towards a potential cut to 3.60% due to easing inflation and a declining employment report [3] - The U.S. July CPI data is anticipated to provide insights into inflation trends, especially after the unexpected underperformance of the non-farm payroll data, which has heightened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [5] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release their monthly energy outlook reports, which will offer guidance on oil demand, supply, and price forecasts [8] - The U.K. is expected to release GDP data for Q2 and June, with previous data indicating economic contraction, increasing pressure on the Bank of England to consider further rate cuts [9] - The Eurozone will also publish a revised GDP figure for Q2, with expectations of a modest growth rate of 0.1% [11] - Japan's GDP data for Q2 will be released, following a 0.7% year-on-year decline in Q1, raising concerns about the economic outlook and potential implications for the Bank of Japan's interest rate policy [12]

华尔街对美国总统特朗普提名其经济顾问斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran）进入美联储的计划反应平淡。 上周这一消息公布后，市场即时反应温和，但投资者现在必须将另一个与白宫立场一致的声音纳入考量 ——他将在美联储内部推动降息和放松监管。 作为白宫经济顾问委员会主席，米兰将填补美联储理事阿德瑞娜·库格勒（Adriana Kugler）的剩余任 期。库格勒意外辞职于上周五生效，她2023年9月加入美联储理事会，任期原定于1月底结束。 参议院可能不会在美联储9月政策会议前就米兰的提名进行投票。因此，对市场而言，真正的意义在于9 月之后的影响。 "这可能是一系列连锁反应的第一块多米诺骨牌，最终将导致政策宽松、通胀高于目标、美元走弱，"高 收益经济学（High Yield Economics）创始人丹尼尔·奥尔特曼（Daniel Altman）在报告中写道。 米兰多次呼吁美元走弱。去年11月，他为哈德逊湾资本（Hudson Bay Capital）撰写的一篇41页国际贸 易论文中称，"经济失衡的根源在于美元持续高估，阻碍了国际贸易平衡……" 短期来看，华尔街分析师认为美联储不会出现重大政策转向。 "米兰的任命短期内对 ...

8月初，一份疲软的就业报告引发市场波动，如今市场刚企稳，就将迎来关键的美国通胀数据。 投资者将密切关注经济中是否出现关税推高物价的迹象——消费者价格指数（CPI）数据将于周二发 布。嘉信理财（Charles Schwab）高级投资策略师凯文·戈登（Kevin Gordon）表示，一些人担忧"滞胀趋 势"可能形成，即通胀与失业率同时上升。 戈登在电话采访中称，若通胀高于预期，可能"给市场泼一盆冷水"，导致美国股市从近期反弹中回落。 据道琼斯市场数据，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数（IXIC）上周五收于历史新高，标普500指数 （SPX）则略低于历史峰值。而8月1日，美国7月就业报告意外疲软，加上前几个月新增就业人数大幅 下修，曾导致标普500指数创下4月以来最大单日跌幅。 高盛资产管理公司基本面股票业务联席副首席投资官亚历克西斯·德拉德里埃（Alexis Deladerrière）在 电话采访中表示，强劲的企业盈利、企业宣布的大额投资以及预期中的降息，都应有利于经济和股市。 "我们开始看到股市'动物精神'回归，"他说，并援引并购活动增加、首次公开募股（IPO）交易量上升 为例。他表示，并购加速是企业领袖对前景" ...

新华财经北京8月11日电 随着本周二（8月13日）议息会议临近，市场对澳洲联储降息的预期已近乎一 致。路透调查显示，全部40位受访经济学家均预测，澳洲联储将把隔夜拆款利率下调25个基点至 3.60%。 降息理由充分：通胀回落与就业疲软 尽管通胀达标，但经济并未展现出强劲复苏势头，使得央行在维持价格稳定的同时，需兼顾增长支持。 因此，降息被视为在通胀风险可控背景下，适度刺激经济的合理举措。 谨慎姿态：降息开启，但不预设路径 尽管市场认为本次降息已"板上钉钉"，但澳洲联储内部对后续政策仍保持高度谨慎。7月会议纪要明确 指出，决策层担忧"过快降息"的风险，强调需"等待更多数据"以评估经济走势。这意味着，尽管降息周 期可能已经开启，但未来行动将高度依赖数据，而非预设节奏。 市场普遍预期年底前利率将进一步降至3.35%，但澳洲联储或有意避免强化这一预期。其目标是在支持 经济的同时，保留政策灵活性，为未来可能的不确定性（如外部贸易紧张局势、美国政策外溢效应等） 预留空间。11月是否再度降息，将取决于未来数月的通胀、就业和消费数据。 市场影响：声明基调决定澳元走向 本次会议的关键不仅在于利率决定本身，更在于会后声明的基调。 ...

Group 1 - US Treasury Secretary Becerra expands the candidate pool for the Federal Reserve Chair, including former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and former Bush advisor Mark Sobel [1] - Fed Governor Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year, citing core personal consumption expenditures inflation nearing the 2% target [1] - UK Chief Economist Hugh Pill warns that while inflation pressures may ease, changes in long-term pricing and wage-setting behavior could delay future rate cuts [1] Group 2 - July electric vehicle sales reached a record high, accounting for 9.1% of total passenger vehicle sales, with used electric vehicle sales hitting 36,700 units [1] - The Bank of Japan's July meeting minutes indicate a consensus on future rate hikes, but concerns about the impact of US tariffs have lowered short-term rate hike expectations [1] - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister Akizawa reveals that the US will modify a presidential order to provide tax relief measures for Japan, refunding overpaid tariffs and reducing tariffs on cars and parts [1]

2025年08月11日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：关税乌龙影响价差 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：小幅反弹 | 2 | | 铜：美元弱势，支撑价格 | 4 | | 锌：窄幅震荡 | 6 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：区间震荡 | 9 | | 铝：波动率降至历史低位 | 11 | | 氧化铝：市场存在分歧 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：窄幅震荡 | 11 | | 镍：矿端支撑逻辑削弱，冶炼端逻辑限制弹性 | 13 | | 不锈钢：多空博弈加剧，钢价震荡运行 | 13 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 资料来源：同花顺，国泰君安期货 【宏观及行业新闻】（资料来源：华尔街见闻） 1、中俄两国元首通电话。中国外交部回应特朗普可能征次级关税讲话：中方同包括俄罗斯在内的世 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 11 日 黄金：关税乌龙影响价差 白银：小幅反弹 | 王蓉 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 | wangrong013179@gtjas.com | | ...

沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货20650，基差-35，贴水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周减3913吨至113614吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多减；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，多空交织，铝价震荡运行. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 现货价格 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 昨日现货 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is influenced by multiple factors including geopolitical events, economic data, and policy changes. For instance, the potential outcomes of the US-Russia talks and the uncertainty in the US-China trade relationship are key factors affecting various markets [17][44]. - In the financial market, different asset classes have different outlooks. Gold is expected to continue its oscillatory trend with increased volatility; the US dollar is predicted to remain weak in the short - term; and the US stock market may face correction risks due to the fluctuating interest - rate cut expectations [13][18][22]. - In the commodity market, each sector has its own supply - demand dynamics. For example, the油脂 market may experience short - term pullbacks but has long - term potential for long - positions; the copper market is likely to have high - level oscillations with inventory increases limiting the upside [33][57]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Fed's Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year. The gold price oscillated on Friday with increased intraday volatility. After the White House clarified that imported gold bars would not be taxed, the COMEX gold price declined to narrow the spread with London gold. The gold price is in an oscillatory range, and short - term oscillations are expected to continue with attention to correction risks [12][13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The NATO Secretary - General is optimistic about the "Trump - Putin meeting". Nordic and Baltic leaders reaffirmed their support for Ukraine. The US - Russia meeting in Alaska and the European stance on Ukraine make the outcome of the meeting and the cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict highly uncertain, leading to the US dollar remaining weak in the short - term [14][15][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Fed officials have different views on interest rates. Some support maintaining the current rate due to unmet inflation targets, while others advocate for rate cuts. The market's interest - rate cut expectations are volatile, and the US stock market at its current level may face correction risks [19][21][22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The issuance of local bonds with VAT on interest started on August 8. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. The bond market is expected to be in a favorable period in the first half of August, and trading - position long - holders can continue to hold their positions [23][24][27]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - In July, China's CPI was flat year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year. Beijing optimized its housing purchase restrictions, and the capital market is expected not to have a large - scale IPO expansion. The strengthening of the core CPI may support the stock market pricing, and it is recommended to allocate evenly among stock indices [28][29][31]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The actual soybean crushing volume in the 32nd week was 2177500 tons, and the expected volume in the 33rd week is 2369500 tons. Multiple countries' policies may change. India may raise edible oil import tariffs, and there are rumors about the US RVO proposal. The short - term oil market may pull back, but it has long - term potential for long - positions, and it is recommended to go long on dips [32][33]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The market expects the USDA August supply - demand report to raise the US soybean yield. The US soybean market is weak, while the domestic soybean meal market is relatively strong. It is recommended to continue to focus on the development of Sino - US relations and changes in import and demand [34][35]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar exports decreased in July, indicating weak export demand. The international sugar market is under pressure due to the expected oversupply in the 25/26 season. However, factors such as the low sugar - ethanol price difference and poor cane quality may limit the downside of the ICE raw sugar price. The domestic sugar market is also under pressure from increased imports, but the downside of the Zhengzhou sugar price is limited, and it is not recommended to short aggressively [39][40]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - The US tariff policy and the uncertainty in the US - China trade relationship increase market concerns. The ICE cotton price is expected to remain weak in the short - term. Domestically, the cotton supply is tight before the new cotton harvest, and there may be a small - scale "rush to buy" at the beginning of the new cotton season. The 1 - month contract may rebound, and it is recommended to pay attention to the US - China trade policy [44]. 2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China has completed the ultra - low emission transformation of 600 million tons of crude steel production capacity. The inventory of five major steel products is increasing, and the demand has not changed significantly. The steel price is expected to oscillate in the short - term due to the limited impact of environmental protection restrictions on supply and the difficulty of the spot price to follow the increase [45][47]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The cassava starch inventory has increased again at a high level, and the price difference with corn starch has narrowed. There is no driving force for the price difference to strengthen in the supply - demand situation, and the price difference in the 09 contract may be affected by the new corn harvest in North China [48]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The成交 rate of imported corn auctions remains low. The market's demand for imported corn substitutes is expected to decline, and the old - crop spot price is likely to weaken. It is recommended to hold short positions in new - crop corn and pay attention to the weather [49][50]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Two factories of a Shanxi alumina enterprise were affected by ore supply. The spot price remained stable, and the futures price was weak. It is recommended to wait and see [51][53]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The US is interested in investing in Pakistan's copper mining. Chile's Codelco partially restarted a copper mine. Macro factors may provide short - term support for the copper price, but the increase in global inventory will limit the upside. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and focus on the cross - market reverse arbitrage strategy [54][57]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange added new registered brands for polysilicon futures. The spot trading is light, and the inventory is increasing. The short - term polysilicon price may range between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton, and it may reach over 60000 yuan/ton in the long - term. It is recommended to go long on dips and consider the 9 - 12 positive arbitrage [58][60]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Some production capacities in Xinjiang have resumed production. The supply may increase in August, but the demand from polysilicon may lead to inventory reduction. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short - term, with risks from large - factory resumption and polysilicon production cuts [61][62]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Ningde Times' Jiaxiaowo mining site will stop production. The production loss will lead to inventory reduction in the third - quarter balance sheet. The short - term price is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to go long on dips and consider the inter - month positive arbitrage [63]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The primary lead production is expected to increase, while the secondary lead production is affected by sewage inspections. The demand is in the pre - peak season waiting to be verified. It is recommended to hold long positions established at low prices and pay attention to the positive arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [65][66]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc inventory has decreased significantly, while the domestic zinc supply is high. The demand is stable in the primary processing sector. The short - term trading of Shanghai zinc is difficult, and it is recommended to manage positions for single - side trading, consider the medium - term positive arbitrage, and wait and see for the domestic - foreign trading [67][68]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory has increased. The macro - environment provides some support, but the supply is expected to be in surplus. The short - term nickel price is unlikely to decline significantly, and it is recommended to focus on short - term trading opportunities and consider short - selling at high prices in the medium - term [69][70]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price oscillated last week. The carbon price may be supported by the buying demand before the compliance deadline, but the weak demand may limit the upside. The EU carbon price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [71][72]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US oil rig count decreased. India's state - owned refineries are招标 to purchase non - Russian crude oil. The oil price has fallen to a new low since early June due to reduced geopolitical risk premiums. The short - term oil price volatility is expected to increase [73][74][76]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The Shandong caustic soda market is stable. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is average. The caustic soda spot price is starting to weaken, but the downside is limited due to factors such as low liquid chlorine prices and strong coal prices [77][78]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The imported wood pulp spot market has limited adjustments. The futures price is oscillating. The anti - involution sentiment has cooled down, and the pulp market is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term [79]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market is weakly oscillating. The futures price is down, and the trading is light. The PVC fundamentals are weak, but the macro - environment and coal prices provide support. The market is expected to oscillate [80]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (PX) - A South Korean PX plant is under maintenance, and Japanese PX plants are restarting. The PX price is affected by downstream demand, PTA spot price, and other factors, and is expected to oscillate in the short - term [81]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - A Northeast PTA plant is shutting down. The weaving industry is in the off - season, and the PTA supply and demand have little contradiction. The PTA price mainly follows the crude oil price and is expected to oscillate in the short - term [82][83]. 2.23 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - Maersk's second - quarter earnings were strong. The SCFI index has declined. The shipping companies are accelerating price cuts, and the supply pressure is increasing. The freight rate may continue to decline, and it is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities when the market is boosted by sentiment [84][87].