Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperforming the Market - A" with a maintained rating [4] Core Insights - The report highlights significant advancements in domestic CPU technology with the launch of Longxin 3C6000 processors, achieving a performance improvement of 60%-110% compared to previous generations [1] - Micron Technology reported a record revenue of $9.3 billion for Q3 2025, driven by strong demand for NAND and HBM products, with a 50% increase in HBM revenue [3] - Xiaomi's AI glasses were launched, weighing only 40 grams and featuring a 12MP camera, indicating a growing trend in the AI glasses market, which is expected to see rapid expansion [2] Industry Performance - The electronic sector saw a 4.61% increase in the week of June 23-29, 2025, ranking 7th among 31 industries [9][25] - The absolute return for the electronic sector over 12 months is 35.3%, with a relative return of 21.7% [6] Investment Recommendations - Suggested companies to focus on include Shenghong Technology, Huadian Co., and other key players in the AI glasses and storage sectors [10]

Market Review - The global stock market risk appetite has significantly improved due to the rapid de-escalation of the Middle East situation and the growing expectations of interest rate cuts overseas, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching all-time highs. The A-share index has strengthened, driven by the large financial sector, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through its year-to-date high after three consecutive days of gains. Active theme investments have emerged, particularly in military, non-bank financials, and stablecoin concepts. Major A-share indices have generally risen, with the North Star 50, micro-cap indices, ChiNext, and CSI 2000 indices leading the gains, while the dividend index declined. In commodities, international oil prices and gold have significantly retreated, and the US dollar index continues to decline, with a year-to-date drop exceeding 10%, while the offshore RMB to USD exchange rate has risen to around 7.15 [1][2]. Market Outlook - The global space for interest rate cuts has reopened, and the A-share market is expected to continue its "steady improvement." Despite significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, the market has begun pricing in rate cuts due to the easing of geopolitical risks and falling oil prices. Domestically, the A-share index has gradually risen due to the continuous inflow of medium- to long-term funds. The recent increase in trading volume and improved profitability in the A-share market have boosted investor risk appetite, reopening the upper range of the market's fluctuation center. Looking ahead, the constraints of exchange rates on China's monetary policy have significantly weakened, and the domestic policy of "stabilizing growth" requires a loose monetary environment. The reopening of domestic and foreign interest rate cut spaces will help elevate A-share valuations. Key areas of focus for the market include: balanced industry allocation with a focus on non-ferrous metals, military industry, AI computing power, and AI applications. Thematic investments should pay attention to solid-state batteries, stablecoins, and self-controllable technologies [2]. Overseas Economic Conditions - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has increased, with the probability of three rate cuts in the second half of the year rising. The actual GDP of the US in the first quarter was unexpectedly revised down to -0.5%, with personal consumption expenditure, which accounts for about 70% of the US economy, only growing by 0.5%. This has led to a downward adjustment in its contribution to GDP by approximately 0.3 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in service consumption. Consumer confidence in the US has significantly declined this year, raising concerns about the impact of tariffs on US economic data. Recent dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials suggest that if inflation remains moderate, they may support a rate cut in July. Despite significant internal divisions reflected in the June dot plot, the market has begun to price in rate cuts, leading to declines in the US dollar index and Treasury yields, while US stocks have risen. According to CME FedWatch, market expectations for the number of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year have increased from two to three [5]. Domestic Economic Conditions - The weak dollar expectation is conducive to global capital flowing into emerging markets, with A-shares benefiting from domestic and foreign liquidity easing. In early May, the Hong Kong dollar triggered the strong-side Convertibility Undertaking multiple times, but within a month, it transitioned from a strong-side to a weak-side guarantee, indicating tightening liquidity expectations for the Hong Kong dollar, which may exert pressure on the Hong Kong stock market. However, this is expected to be a temporary impact. Looking ahead, the weak dollar driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts is likely to continue, further reducing the constraints of exchange rates on China's monetary policy. In the second half of the year, the impact of tariffs on domestic exports may gradually become apparent, while the focus of domestic policy remains on "stabilizing growth," necessitating a loose monetary environment. The reopening of domestic and foreign interest rate cut spaces, along with ample liquidity, is expected to directly promote the elevation of A-share valuations [5]. Trading Volume and Market Sentiment - The increase in trading volume and profitability has helped boost risk appetite, with the A-share index center expected to rise in July. Year-to-date, medium- to long-term funds have continuously flowed into A-shares, with net purchases by social security, insurance, and annuity funds exceeding 200 billion yuan, contributing to a virtuous cycle of "reporting increases—funds entering—market stability." This week, the daily trading volume of A-shares has repeatedly exceeded 1.6 trillion yuan, with no significant increase in the issuance of equity funds and ETF subscriptions. Meanwhile, financing funds have net purchased for four consecutive trading days (from June 23 to June 26), and after the Shanghai Composite Index effectively broke through 3,400 points, the financing balance has further increased, reflecting an improvement in market risk appetite, which is conducive to further elevating the A-share index center in July [5]. Fundamental Analysis - From a fundamental perspective, the impact of tariffs on corporate profits is gradually becoming apparent, and the marginal weakening of the real estate market is expected to delay the upward trend in A-share earnings. In May, the year-on-year decline in industrial enterprises above designated size was -9.1%, a significant drop from April's 3%, with declines in volume, price, and profit margins. The PPI in May fell by 3.3% year-on-year, remaining in negative territory for 32 consecutive months. Historical experience shows a strong correlation between PPI and non-financial A-share earnings; if PPI continues to weaken, it may interrupt the brief earnings recovery seen in A-shares in the first quarter. On the other hand, the weak fundamental elasticity of A-shares suggests that they are more likely to experience a gradual elevation of the fluctuation center amid volatility [5]. Valuation and Risk Premium - The overall PE (TTM) of A-shares and the PE (TTM) excluding financials and oil & gas sectors are critical indicators for assessing market valuation. The latest valuation metrics for major A-share industries, including PE (TTM) and PB (LF), provide insights into the current market conditions and potential investment opportunities [38][40].

Market Overview - The average daily trading volume of the entire A-share market reached 1.49 trillion CNY, an increase of over 270 billion CNY compared to the previous week[8] - The Shanghai Composite Index showed a weekly increase of 1.91%[11] Market Style Performance - Small-cap and growth styles outperformed, with the ChiNext Index rising by 5.69% and the CSI 2000 Index increasing by 5.55%[11] - The relative advantage of small-cap stocks has rebounded into positive territory based on a rolling 30-day performance comparison[14] Participant Performance - The market sentiment index rose by 5.94%, indicating strong performance from active funds[22] - The private equity heavy index increased by 4.45%, reflecting a 52.84% rise since September 24, 2024[22] Financing and Market Sentiment - The margin trading balance increased to nearly 1.84 trillion CNY, indicating a growing investor confidence[31] - The number of stocks hitting the daily limit down has decreased to fewer than 10 on most days, suggesting reduced market volatility[31] Sector Trends - Strong sectors included stablecoins and semiconductor chips, with significant developments in solid-state batteries and military technology[42] - The report emphasizes the importance of "self-reliance in technology" and "active domestic circulation" in the current economic context[46]

半导体行业 2025 年 6 月 27 日 刘梦麟 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340521070002 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： liumenglin@dgzq.com.cn 周 报 陈伟光 S0340520060001 电话：0769-22119430 邮箱： chenweiguang@dgzq.com.cn 行 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind 超配（维持） 半导体行业双周报（2025/06/13-2025/06/26） 行 业 DDR4 价格持续上涨 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 半导体行业指数近两周涨跌幅：截至2025年6月26日，半导体行业指数近两 周（2025/06/13-2025/06/26）累计上涨3.79%，跑赢沪深300指数2.41个百 分点；2025年以来申万半导体行业指数累计上涨2.31%，跑输沪深300指数 2.02个百分点。 SAC 执业证书编号： 细分板块涨跌幅：截至2025年6月26日，申万半导体板块各细分指数近两周 大多上涨 ...

Group 1 - The current smartphone market is experiencing a mild recovery, driven by AI integration and subsidy policies, which are expected to boost mobile phone sales back into a growth cycle [1][2] - Silicon-carbon anode materials are likely to become the mainstream technology route due to their high energy density, addressing the high energy consumption characteristics of AI phones [1][2] - VC uniform heat plates are anticipated to have long-term development space under the trend of AI terminal development [1][2] Group 2 - Layered OLED displays, known for their high brightness, low energy consumption, and long lifespan, are expected to become an important trend in mobile screen development [1][2] - The emergence and popularization of large AI models are opening up a new development path for AI glasses, with major manufacturers' layouts likely to accelerate their market introduction [1][2] Group 3 - The Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need to boost consumption and improve investment efficiency to expand domestic demand comprehensively [3] - Policies promoting consumption, such as trade-in programs for consumer goods, have shown significant effects, particularly in mobile phone subsidies and promotions for 3C products [3] - Chip companies with a high proportion of storage and analog products in the downstream 3C sector are expected to benefit from the recovery and innovation driven by consumption stimulation [3] Group 4 - The rapid growth of global large models and the increasing computational demands of individual models have significantly raised the demand for computing chips in both training and inference stages [4] - NVIDIA's launch of the GB300 series in March 2025, which offers 1.5 times the AI performance of its predecessor, highlights the advancements in computing power [4] - The demand for AIoT products is expected to grow as downstream application scenarios become increasingly diverse, with inference sides becoming a long-term driving force in the computing industry chain [4] Group 5 - In 2025, significant changes in global supply and demand are anticipated, with a focus on AI hardware deployment and domestic demand-driven upgrade needs on the demand side [5] - The supply side will focus on the domestic substitution of the semiconductor industry, with four investment themes suggested: AI terminals, domestic demand recovery, computing infrastructure, and self-sufficiency [5] - Specific recommendations include focusing on AI phones and glasses, semiconductor cycle recovery, GPU and PCB industries, and advanced packaging supply chains [5]

Core Insights - The global digital transformation is accelerating, leading to an exponential increase in data security risks, with a projected annual growth rate of 32.6% for data breaches in 2024 [1] - Traditional public cloud communication tools are inadequate for high-security industries such as finance, military, and research, creating a demand for private communication solutions [1] - JingShu Technology (Shanghai) Co., Ltd. has emerged as a preferred solution provider for high-security demand industries with its fully controllable private communication products [1] Group 1: Technological Strength - JingShu Technology was established in 2022 but has a technological foundation dating back to 2012, with a successful entry into the high-tech enterprise category in 2024 [2] - The company has implemented a "1 + 2 + 1" strategy, establishing a complete and efficient product closed-loop capability system centered around its Shanghai headquarters [2] - JingShu Technology has obtained 34 core patents and 60 software copyrights, forming a significant technological barrier for its full-stack secure communication solutions [2] Group 2: Security Framework - The company employs a three-tiered defense system encompassing endpoint security, transmission encryption, and data sovereignty [3] - Vargo security phones utilize hardware-level encryption to protect 18 types of personal privacy data, with mechanisms for remote data destruction in case of device loss [3] - A distributed disaster recovery solution ensures business continuity, while a zero-trust architecture underpins dynamic key management and multi-factor authentication [3] Group 3: Data Sovereignty - Enterprises can choose between cloud or localized deployment options, with public cloud solutions ensuring absolute data control through exclusive key systems [4] - The modular architecture allows seamless scaling from small teams to large organizations, ensuring that initial investments yield long-term value as business grows [4] Group 4: Industry Positioning - JingShu Technology has gained recognition as a benchmark for secure communication in Shanghai, showcasing its customized capabilities at the 2025 MWC Shanghai exhibition [5] - The company's strategic layout in Pudong aligns with Shanghai's vision of becoming an "International Digital Capital," enhancing its industry collaboration [5] Group 5: Market Expansion - The implementation of data security and personal information protection laws in China is driving the transition of private communication systems from "high-end options" to "basic standards" [6] - JingShu Technology's flexible customization capabilities are lowering deployment barriers for enterprises, opening new market opportunities for small and medium-sized enterprises [6] - The modular architecture and elastic pricing model are expected to facilitate the penetration of secure communication capabilities into the long-tail market, becoming a key driver of the security autonomy process [6]

Group 1 - The technology growth sector showed strong performance, with the ChiNext Index rising over 1%, and the Double Innovation Leader ETF (588330) reaching a peak increase of 1.4% during trading [1] - The constituent stock Longxin Zhongke released a new generation of domestic CPUs, leading to a price increase of over 14%, while companies in computing hardware such as Zhongji Xuchuang and Xinyi Sheng saw increases of nearly 8% and over 5% respectively [1] Group 2 - The electronic sector received a net inflow of 11.461 billion yuan, ranking first among 31 Shenwan primary industries, with a weight of 38.7% in the Double Innovation Leader ETF [2][3] - The communication sector also saw significant net inflows of 7.694 billion yuan, with a rise of 2.29% [3] Group 3 - Key positive news includes the release of a new generation of domestic CPUs by Longxin Zhongke, which does not rely on any foreign authorized technology, and the overall recovery of the electronic sector [5] - The 2025 China AI Computing Power Conference highlighted the changing landscape of AI computing power, with Nvidia's stock reaching a historical high of $3.77 trillion in market capitalization [5] - Analysts predict that the demand for inference computing power will reach 62.2% by 2026, with technologies like liquid cooling and high-speed interconnects becoming investment hotspots [5] Group 4 - The Double Innovation Leader ETF (588330) closely tracks the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index, selecting 50 strategic emerging industry companies from the Sci-Tech and ChiNext boards, covering popular themes such as new energy and semiconductors [6] - The ETF provides a low-threshold entry point for investors to access multi-layered capital markets, with the potential to act as a "rebound pioneer" [6]

Core Viewpoint - The decline in discount rates is a key driver for the rise of the Chinese stock market and creates favorable conditions for thematic investments, with opportunities in both industrial and trading themes. The article focuses on three major directions: cutting-edge technology, advanced manufacturing, and pattern improvement, discussing ten investment themes for the second half of 2025 [1][3]. Group 1: Cutting-edge Technology - Theme 1: AI and Embodied Intelligence - AI possesses all essential characteristics for industrial trend investment, with investment paths expected to follow the patterns of "information infrastructure construction," "basic software deployment," "online application explosion," and "restructuring offline industries." The demand for computing power is anticipated to rise significantly [4]. - Embodied intelligence applications are accelerating in fields such as research education, hazardous jobs, and healthcare, with a focus on manufacturers capable of mass production [4]. - Theme 2: Bioeconomy and Brain-Machine Interfaces - Biotechnology is empowering traditional industries, with rapid advancements in synthetic biology and brain-machine integration technologies. The bioeconomy is expanding, benefiting various segments including biopharmaceuticals and bio-based materials [5]. - The brain-machine interface industry is still in the R&D phase, with several tech companies exploring hardware and application breakthroughs [5]. - Theme 3: 6G Communication - 6G is expected to revolutionize communication with lower latency and higher connection density compared to 5G, with research on technical standards starting in 2025 [6]. - The 6G industry chain will focus on breakthroughs in core areas such as chips, semiconductors, and software, with applications in low-altitude economy and smart manufacturing [6]. Group 2: Advanced Manufacturing - Theme 4: Low-altitude Economy and Commercial Space - The low-altitude economy is entering a "manned era," with significant market growth expected by 2026. The demand for satellite launches is anticipated to increase as multiple satellite constellations are deployed [7]. - Recommendations include companies involved in low-altitude vehicle manufacturing and satellite manufacturing services [7]. - Theme 5: Deep-sea Technology - The government has emphasized deep-sea technology, with policies accelerating the industrialization process. The marine economy is projected to exceed 10 trillion yuan by 2024 [8]. - Recommendations include companies benefiting from deep-sea resource development and those involved in marine engineering equipment [8]. - Theme 6: Self-sufficiency - The semiconductor sector is a focal point in the technology competition, with policies promoting domestic mergers and acquisitions to enhance the industry chain [9]. - Recommendations include leading companies in semiconductor equipment and materials [9]. Group 3: Pattern Improvement - Theme 7: Intelligent Driving - The penetration of advanced intelligent driving technologies is accelerating, with cost reductions in related hardware expected due to scale effects [10]. - Recommendations include companies producing intelligent driving chips and components [10]. - Theme 8: New Consumption Brands - The consumption recovery is showing a "K-shaped" divergence, with traditional consumption under pressure while new consumption is gaining momentum [11]. - Recommendations include emerging consumption sectors such as domestic beauty brands and pet economy [11]. - Theme 9: Price Cycle Products - Some cyclical industries are beginning to reduce capacity due to oversupply, with expectations for improved supply-demand dynamics in the real estate and industrial raw materials sectors [12]. - Recommendations include companies in construction materials and steel [12]. - Theme 10: Regional Economy - The urgency to address regional development imbalances is increasing, with accelerated infrastructure investment in the western regions [12]. - Recommendations include companies benefiting from infrastructure investments and those in the tourism sector related to Hainan's free trade port [12].

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a collective rise in the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.26%, driven by gains in sectors such as diversified finance, basic metals, and precious metals, while energy equipment and tourism sectors faced declines [1] - The chip technology sector exhibited mixed performance, with the chip ETF (159995) rising by 0.33%. Notable gainers included Longxin Zhongke, which surged by 15.91%, and other companies like Jingjia Micro and Tuojing Technology, which rose by 1.50% and 1.41% respectively. Conversely, companies like Cambrian and Haiguang Information experienced declines of -3.11% and -0.99% [1] Group 2 - Longxin Zhongke launched the new Longxin 3C6000 series server CPU processor in Beijing, marking a significant advancement in China's self-developed and controllable general-purpose processors, which do not rely on any foreign authorized technology [3] - According to招商证券, the evolution of the global trade landscape has elevated the importance of self-sufficiency in the semiconductor industry as a key strategic focus for China's industrial development. Continuous government support for this sector is expected to enhance the outlook for self-sufficiency amid the AI innovation cycle and tariff considerations [3] - The chip ETF (159995) tracks the Guozheng Chip Index, comprising 30 leading companies in the A-share chip industry across various segments, including materials, equipment, design, manufacturing, packaging, and testing, featuring firms like SMIC, Cambrian, Changdian Technology, and Northern Huachuang [3]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Focus - The conference call primarily discusses the **domestic computing industry** and its **self-controllable sector**, particularly focusing on **国产化替代** (domestic substitution) in the context of the **信创** (Xinchuang) initiative [1][3][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - Investment should focus on **core areas** such as **operating systems, chips, and databases**, which are expected to dominate the software ecosystem and concentrate profits as the industry matures [1][3]. - There is a significant investment opportunity in **industrial control PLC, CEM, and CAD design software**, which currently have low penetration rates. The potential for product breakthroughs in these areas is highlighted as a key driver for domestic substitution [1][3]. - The **competitive advantage** of domestic chips is emphasized, particularly in comparison to **Intel chips** regarding **FP8, FP4, and memory specifications**. Rapid iterations of domestic chips are expected to enhance their cost-performance ratio [1][3]. - The **self-controllable sector's performance** is closely linked to the **replacement cycle**, with a gradual expansion from government sectors to broader industries. Policy support is crucial for this expansion [4][5]. - The best investment phase is identified as the transition from **small-scale pilot projects** to **small-scale rollouts**, with an emphasis on monitoring the pace of **foreign restrictions** on China, which could accelerate domestic substitution [1][6]. Additional Important Points - The **three most promising investment directions** are identified as: 1. Domestic **basic software and hardware** (chips, databases, operating systems) 2. Domestic **industrial software**, leveraging China's manufacturing foundation 3. The **AI sector**, where domestic substitution is a clear trend amid US-China technological competition [2][8]. - The **supply-side** focus should be on product iterations in low-penetration areas like PLC, CAD, and CEL, while the **demand-side** should be guided by policies, especially in industries critical to national security [6][7]. - Historical patterns indicate that each round of **policy reinforcement** leads to downstream industry expansion, making it essential to capture cyclical opportunities as the ecosystem evolves [5].