加拿大央行调查：关税对企业前景的直接影响没有第一季度那么严重。 ...

加拿大央行表示，关税和不确定性影响商业前景，消费者计划减少在美国旅行和商品上的支出。 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Equities** market, particularly the impact of **tariffs** and **artificial intelligence (AI)** on stock performance. [1][2][7] Core Insights - **Tariff Impact**: - Goldman Sachs economists predict the effective tariff rate will rise by **17 percentage points to 19%** by early 2027, which is **3 percentage points higher** than previous forecasts. [2] - Despite this, the equity market remains largely unconcerned, with the S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs and the GS Tariff Risk basket only **4% off its peak**. [2][3] - Tariff revenue continues to increase, with an estimated **$240 billion** increase in annual tariff revenue compared to the previous year. [3] - **AI and Big Tech**: - The focus has shifted towards beneficiaries of President Trump's policies, particularly in AI and Big Tech, with significant investments announced, including a **$92 billion commitment** to AI and energy initiatives. [7][8] - The **Big Beautiful Bill** allows companies to expense all domestic R&D costs in the year they are incurred, benefiting major tech companies that account for approximately **47% of R&D spending** by S&P 500 companies. [10][11] - The performance of AI thematic baskets has been strong, with various AI-related sectors showing significant gains. [10] - **Market Performance**: - The US Tech Select Sector Index and MegaCap tech index have risen approximately **35%** in the last three months, outperforming the S&P 500, which increased by **19%**. [19] - The Information Technology sector now represents about **34%** of the S&P 500 by market cap, matching historical highs. [20][21] Additional Insights - **Valuation Concerns**: There are concerns regarding tech valuations and concentration, but some analysts argue that the earnings growth and margins justify the current valuations. [22] - **Dollar Weakness**: A weaker dollar, influenced by trade policies, is expected to benefit tech earnings, particularly for companies with high international sales exposure. [15] - **Investor Sentiment**: Investor positioning remains negative but not extreme, indicating potential for market adjustments. [29] - **Systematic Buying**: There is ongoing support from systematic investors, with an estimated **$67 billion** in global equity buying in the last month, primarily driven by trend-following strategies. [33] Conclusion - The conference call highlighted the resilience of the equity market in the face of rising tariffs, the significant role of AI and tech in driving market performance, and the ongoing adjustments in investor sentiment and market dynamics. The focus on R&D tax benefits and the implications of government policies on tech companies are critical for future investment strategies.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the global rates strategy, focusing on developments in the US, Eurozone, and Japan markets, particularly in relation to interest rates and tariffs. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Tariff Announcement Impact**: A 30% tariff rate on EU goods was announced by Trump, effective after August 1, which was higher than expected. The EU has suspended retaliatory measures but is preparing countermeasures if negotiations fail. Market reactions were muted as investors focused on potential negotiations rather than the tariff rate itself [2][2][2]. 2. **US Curve Steepening**: The US curve steepened by 6 basis points this week, influenced by concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve amid rumors about Chair Powell's potential dismissal. This led to a partial retracement of the steepening move, but uncertainty remains about political influence on the Fed [3][3][3]. 3. **Eurozone Rate Expectations**: The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep rates on hold in the upcoming meeting, with a 42% probability of a rate cut in September. The ECB's recent commentary has been relaxed regarding downside risks to growth and the appreciation of the Euro [35][35][41]. 4. **Market Movements**: Mixed rate movements were observed across developed markets, with Euro rates rallying by 4-5 basis points, while UK gilts sold off. The overall market sentiment appears cautious ahead of the summer holiday period [1][1][44]. 5. **Swaps Seasonality Analysis**: There is no clear evidence of seasonal patterns in swap levels or curves for EUR, GBP, and USD, although some flattening in 10s/30s USD swaps has been noted since 2021. The analysis suggests that summer carry trades can work unless idiosyncratic factors disrupt the market [12][12][18]. 6. **Political Uncertainty in Japan**: In Japan, rates sold off amid political noise ahead of the upper house election, with liquidity conditions remaining poor. The outcome of the election is uncertain, which could impact fiscal policies [4][4][4]. 7. **Inflation Data**: Recent inflation data showed mixed results, with core CPI in the US surprising to the downside while UK CPI delivered an upside surprise. This indicates varying inflationary pressures across regions [47][47][47]. 8. **Central Bank Policy Rate Expectations**: The call highlighted expectations for central bank policy rates across various regions, with J.P. Morgan's forecasts indicating potential adjustments in response to economic conditions [50][50][50]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The analysis of yield pick-up available via foreign bonds indicates varying opportunities for investors based on currency hedging strategies, with specific yield differentials noted for different maturities [54][54][54]. - The discussion on the potential for larger fiscal outlays suggests that while the overall impact on issuance may be limited, the risk balance is shifting [6][6][6]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the global rates strategy and its implications for investors.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The impact of tariffs on inflation in the U.S. is becoming evident, with a noticeable increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) due to high tariff exposure goods [1] - Inflation trends in other regions are more complex, influenced by currency fluctuations, supply chain shifts, and local demand conditions [2] - China plays a crucial role in regional inflation trends, with ongoing domestic deflation and trade uncertainties contributing to downward pressure on inflation in the region [3] Summary by Sections U.S. Inflation and Tariffs - The report indicates that tariffs implemented in the U.S. are beginning to show effects on inflation, with a lag of approximately 3 to 5 months before impacts are reflected in CPI data [1] - High tariff exposure goods are expected to have a greater impact on Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) than on CPI [1] Regional Inflation Trends - In Latin America, strong currency performance is leading to lower inflation, with Brazil, Chile, and Colombia experiencing this trend due to currency appreciation and high real interest rates [2] - Japan's inflation is expected to remain stable as the central bank is unlikely to raise interest rates again this year, influenced by trade uncertainties [2] - South Korea's inflation is similarly constrained by trade uncertainties, despite some resilience in domestic service and food prices [2] China's Role in Regional Inflation - China's ongoing domestic deflation is exerting downward pressure on regional inflation, contrasting with its previous role in maintaining overall inflation levels in the region [3] - The report notes that the strong euro is helping to suppress inflation in Europe, with limited retaliatory tariffs preventing significant inflation increases [3] - The expectation of a slowdown in economic growth is anticipated to strengthen global deflationary pressures, with U.S. inflation expected to rise in the coming quarters [3]

本报告导读： 6 月美国 CPI 增速如期回升，但核心 CPI 环比不及市场预期。关税对核心商品的影响 开始显现但总体仍较温和。未来几个月关税对通胀的传导仍将进一步释放，CPI 增速 或进一步走高。美联储或仍将维持观望，短期内难以降息。 投资要点： 风险提示：特朗普关税政策再超预期 宏观研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.21 2025-07-21 通胀温和回升，美联储仍可观望 2025 年 6 月美国物价数据点评 [Table_Authors] 王宇晴(分析师) 宏 观 研 究 宏 观 快 报 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 021-23185641 wangyuqing@gtht.com 登记编号 S0880525040119 梁中华(分析师) 021-23219820 [Table_Summary] 美国 6 月通胀：如期回升。6 月美国 CPI 同比 2.7%（前值 2.4%，市 场预期 2.6%）。核心 CPI 同比回升 0.1 个百分点至 2.9%，符合市场预 期。CPI 环比增速回升 0.2 个百分点至 0.3%（市场预期 0.3%），核心 CPI ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of U.S. tariff measures, indicating that the actual tax rate increase is significantly lower than the theoretical value, leading to limited effects on the economy. The second half of the tariff measures may address existing loopholes, making the economic impact clearer [2][4]. Group 1: Tariff Measures - The U.S. tariff measures in the first half of 2025 can be characterized as "high open, low close," with a series of announcements leading to a gradual reduction in tariff intensity [6][7]. - The TACO (Trump Always Chicken Out) phenomenon has emerged, suggesting market desensitization to tariff changes due to the inconsistent application of tariffs [8]. Group 2: Tariff Revenue - Tariff revenue growth has been disappointing, with an actual increase of 6.5% compared to a theoretical increase of 14.5%, indicating that revenue expectations have not been met [11][12]. - Three main reasons for this underperformance include: 1. China has reduced the proportion of high-tariff products in U.S. imports through transshipment and expedited shipping, with China's share of U.S. imports dropping from 13.4% in 2024 to 7.4% in May 2025 [14]. 2. The 25% fentanyl tariff on Mexico and Canada has had minimal practical effect, with actual tax rate increases of only 1.8% and 4.1%, respectively [14]. 3. There has been a shift in product-level adjustments, with higher tariff products seeing a more significant decline in import proportions [14]. Group 3: Economic Impact of Tariffs - The impact of tariffs on China's exports and U.S. inflation has been less than expected. Chinese exports have shown stable volume and price increases, with a potential mild decline in the future [21][22]. - U.S. inflation has remained low, partly due to the actual tax rate increases being lower than theoretical values, and weak demand in the automotive market and fluctuations in oil prices have further suppressed inflation [24]. Group 4: Future Tariff Measures - The second half of the tariff measures may see an increase in actual tax rates, as there are indications that the Trump administration may seek to address the shortcomings of the initial measures [26][27]. - If there is a genuine intent to raise tariff rates for revenue or other purposes, the economic impact could exceed expectations, highlighting the need to be cautious of excessive TACO trading risks [27].

巴西财长：支持受关税影响行业的措施不一定意味着增加基础性支出。 ...

美股二季度财报季开局强劲，消费强劲势头推动企业利润保持韧性，但股市却反应平淡，多数利好消息 已被计入股价，而未达预期的公司将面临严厉惩罚。 以金融股为例，上周公布的业绩大幅超预期，但股价表现平平。流媒体平台Netflix在各项主要指标也均 超出预期，但收跌超5%。联合航空对旅游需求增长持乐观态度，但投资者对这些数字反应冷淡。 PenderFund Capital Management首席投资官Greg Taylor表示： 标普500指数上周五收于历史高位附近，在15个交易日内创下7次新纪录。该股指目前市盈率为22倍，正 快速接近2月份水平，即4月宣布关税前的高点。 与此同时，据彭博数据显示，市场对未达预期业绩的惩罚程度达到近三年来最严重水平。正如道富首席 投资策略师Michael Arone表示： 目前市场容错率很小，当估值很高而你却失误时，惩罚会更严厉。 银行业绩创纪录但股价反应冷淡 美国大型银行基于创纪录的交易收入交出亮眼财报，特朗普关税引发的波动性刺激了华尔街最大公司的 市场活动。尽管如此，股价走势令人失望。 高盛创下华尔街历史上最大收入纪录，但公司股价在财报发布当日涨幅不到1%。摩根士丹利净收入超 出 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Indicators - The US CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year in June, up 0.3 percentage points from May, while the core CPI rose by 2.9%, slightly below the expected 3.0%[10] - The actual tariff rate in June was approximately 10%, up from 2.4% in March, indicating a significant increase in tariff impact on core goods[12] - The UK CPI unexpectedly rose to 3.6% in June, exceeding expectations by 0.2 percentage points, while the core CPI reached 3.7%[15] Group 2: Inflation Contributions - The contribution of core goods to the CPI has expanded for three consecutive months, with June's contribution at 0.14 percentage points[11] - A 1 percentage point increase in the actual tariff rate is estimated to raise the year-on-year contribution to core goods CPI by approximately 0.017 percentage points[12] - Future tariff effects could push the US core CPI to 3.1%, 3.2%, and 3.3% under average tariff rates of 20%, 25%, and 30% respectively[13] Group 3: Market Reactions - The S&P 500 index was at 6296.79, reflecting a weekly increase of 0.59%[3] - The Nasdaq index rose by 1.51% to 20895.66, indicating a positive market sentiment despite inflation concerns[3] - The US dollar index increased by 0.60% to 98.4600, suggesting a strengthening dollar amidst rising inflation expectations[3]