Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is a small but well-positioned regional gold mining enterprise, primarily engaged in gold mining and recovery, with significant resources located in Shaanxi and Gansu provinces [1][12] - The average gold grade of the company's resources is 8.26 grams per ton, with a total resource amount of 55 tons, and an expected gold production of 2.5 tons for the year 2024 [1][37] - The company anticipates a revenue of HKD 1.6 billion in 2024, representing a 7% year-on-year increase, with a gross profit of HKD 523 million, a 212% increase, and a net profit of HKD 211 million, a 310% increase [1][17] - The gold price is expected to remain strong due to weakening dollar credit, central bank gold purchases, and geopolitical tensions [1][24][30] Summary by Sections Business Overview - The company operates in two main mining areas: Tongguan County in Shaanxi and Su Bei County in Gansu, focusing on gold mining and recovery [12][35] - The company has a well-structured mining operation with a focus on both production and resource reserves [2][35] Financial Performance - The company has shown significant growth in revenue and profit, with a projected net profit of HKD 778 million by 2025, reflecting a 269% increase from 2024 [3][4] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from HKD 0.05 in 2024 to HKD 0.18 in 2025 [4][3] Resource Expansion - The company is actively expanding its resource base, with ongoing mining operations and exploration in both regions [2][35] - A long-term gold streaming agreement with Zijin Mining has been established, providing upfront funding and securing future production [2][3] Market Dynamics - The report highlights the increasing demand for gold driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical uncertainties, which are expected to support gold prices [24][26][30] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from these market trends due to its high-grade resources and strategic partnerships [1][3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Market expects the Fed to cut rates several times in Oct/Dec 2025 and Mar/Jun/Dec 2026, with the expected timing of rate cuts in 2026 postponed compared to last week However, considering Trump's continuous pressure on Fed officials, the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries globally, the unresolved geopolitical risks such as the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Palestine conflicts, and the continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries globally, precious metal prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Gold Futures**: The closing price was 826.00 yuan/g on 2025-09-22, with a change of 1.47 yuan compared to the previous day and -2.03 yuan compared to last week The trading volume was 46,932.00, and the open interest was 208,096.00 The inventory (in ten grams) was 57,429.00 [1] - **Spot Shanghai Gold T+D**: The closing price was 824.53 yuan/g on 2025-09-22, with a change of -2.03 yuan compared to the previous day and 1.47 yuan compared to last week The trading volume was 49,462.00, and the open interest was 262.00 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3,678.20 dollars/ounce on 2025-09-22, with a change of 41.20 dollars compared to the previous day and 46.00 dollars compared to last week The trading volume was 207,139.00, and the open interest was 387,119.00 The inventory (in troy ounces) was 39,463,535.53 [1] - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 3,643.70 dollars/ounce on 2025-09-22, with a change of 33.60 dollars compared to the previous day and 19.45 dollars compared to last week [1] - **Shanghai Silver Futures**: The closing price was 9,971.00 yuan/ten grams on 2025-09-22, with a change of 136.00 yuan compared to the previous day and -46.00 yuan compared to last week The trading volume was 356,647.00, and the open interest was 433,982.00 The inventory (in ten grams) was 1,159,443.00 [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 43.37 dollars/ounce on 2025-09-22, with a change of 1.27 dollars compared to the previous day and 1.30 dollars compared to last week The trading volume was 16,412.00, and the open interest was 131,247.00 The inventory (in troy ounces) was 524,043,283.40 [1] - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 42.24 dollars/ounce on 2025-09-22, with a change of 0.38 dollars compared to the previous day and 1.16 dollars compared to last week [1] Important Information - The US Senate rejected short-term spending bills from both parties, and Trump threatened that the US government is likely to shut down on Oct 1st [1] - The Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged, with two unexpected dissenting votes It started to reduce its ETF holdings, selling 330 billion yen worth of ETFs annually, causing the Japanese stock market to decline [1] Trading Strategy - The trading strategy is to mainly establish long positions when prices fall For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3,400 - 3,500 and the resistance level around 3,750 - 3,840; for Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 800 - 810 and the resistance level around 840 - 850 For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 39 - 40 and the resistance level around 43 - 46; for Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 9,500 - 9,700 and the resistance level around 10,300 - 10,500 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is "oscillating", and it is expected to be mainly bearish as there is no obvious driving force [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the polyester industry from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It points out that due to factors such as the decline in crude oil prices, the return of domestic PTA device supply, and the seasonal weakening of aromatics, the PTA market shows a weak trend. Although the downstream load of polyester remains at a high level, there is still no obvious driving force in the market, and it is expected to be mainly bearish [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bearish. Crude oil prices are falling, domestic PTA device supply is gradually returning, PTA basis is weakening, and PX device operating rate is rising while the spread between PX and naphtha is shrinking [3]. - **Demand**: Bullish. The downstream load of polyester remains at about 91%, the inventory of polyester factories is optimistic, and the load of the weaving end has increased slightly [3]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. PTA port inventory has decreased by 40,000 tons [3]. - **Basis**: Bearish. PTA basis has weakened rapidly, profits have continued to shrink, and market liquidity is very loose [3]. - **Profit**: Bearish. The spread between PX and naphtha is $220, and PTA processing fees remain at around 150 yuan and have shrunk [3]. - **Valuation**: Neutral. PTA prices are at a neutral to low level, and aromatics supply has increased due to the return of reforming devices and the postponement of domestic PX mainstream device overhauls [3]. - **Macro Policy**: Neutral. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September [3][8]. - **Investment View**: Oscillating. Expected to be mainly bearish with no obvious driving force [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see. Risk focus: Geopolitical risks [3]. 3.2 Oil Product Fundamentals Overview - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical crises still exist, and prices have dropped significantly. Trump called for further price cuts. Russian weekly crude oil exports decreased sharply in the week of September 14, but the four - week average export volume increased slightly. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on September 18 [5][8]. - **Gasoline**: The peak season for gasoline is ending, and the premium of high - octane components is weakening. Refinery operating rates have risen to 94.9%, gasoline production has decreased to 9.6 million barrels per day, and total gasoline inventory has increased by 1.5 million barrels compared to last week. The driving season will end at the end of September [23]. 3.3 Aromatics Fundamentals Overview - **Supply - Side Changes**: Overhauled devices are returning, and Yulong Petrochemical's supply has increased. Some refineries have device maintenance and new device production plans, which will affect the supply of pure benzene, toluene, and xylene [32][53]. - **Profit Situation**: Selective disproportionation profit has declined, and pure benzene prices are suppressing disproportionation profit. The spread between PX and naphtha has shrunk, and PX short - process profit is still supported [49][54]. - **Market Conditions**: The US - Asia MX spread has widened, but there is no news of exports from South Korea to the US. The spot PX price is gradually falling, and the spread between PX and naphtha has decreased [60]. 3.4 Polyester Fundamentals Overview - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is returning, and prices are weak. East China ethylene glycol port inventory is 465,000 tons and is expected to continue to decline. Overseas imports are expected to decrease, but domestic device production is pressuring prices [75][83]. - **Polyester**: It maintains a high load, but production is increasing while the downstream is entering the off - season. PTA basis has declined rapidly, and the market is under pressure [89][101].

Key Points Summary Core Viewpoint - The article provides an analysis of key trading opportunities in the futures market, highlighting strong bullish and bearish commodities, changes in trading volume, liquidity assessments, and core market logic influencing these trends [1][11]. Group 1: Key Bullish and Bearish Commodities - Strong bullish commodities include: - IC.CFE (CSI 500 Futures): High annualized rolling return of 6.07% with a bullish market outlook [1]. - IM.CFE (CSI 1000 Futures): Strong bullish sentiment with an annualized rolling return of 9.57% and good liquidity [2]. - Strong bearish commodities include: - FG.CZC (Glass): Negative annualized return of -7.65% due to weak supply and demand dynamics [6]. - SI.GFE (Industrial Silicon): Bearish outlook driven by high inventory pressure and weak demand [8]. Group 2: Volume Changes and Liquidity Analysis - The analysis includes a table summarizing trading volume and position changes for various commodities: - IIH.CFE (SSE 50 Futures): Low volatility with stable positions, rated medium liquidity, suitable for hedging [3]. - IC.CFE (CSI 500 Futures): High liquidity with increasing positions, indicating a trend-following opportunity [3]. - I.DCE (Iron Ore): Increased trading volume with concentrated positions, significantly influenced by policy changes [3]. - SC.INE (Crude Oil): Stable trading volume with slight position decrease, significantly affected by external market factors [3]. Group 3: Trading Opportunities - Bullish trading opportunities include: - I.DCE (Iron Ore): Strong bullish sentiment with an annualized return of 7.18%, closely linked to the black commodity sector [6]. - HC.SHF (Hot Rolled Coil): Bullish with a stable trend, highly correlated with rebar steel [6]. - PP.DCE (Polypropylene): Strong bullish outlook with significant annualized returns, standing out among chemical products [6]. - Bearish trading opportunities include: - TS.CFE (2-Year Treasury Futures): Bearish due to declining yields and negative market sentiment [6]. - T.CFE (10-Year Treasury Futures): Bearish with high liquidity but a downward trend [6]. - TL.CFE (30-Year Treasury Futures): Bearish as long-term rates are under pressure [6]. Group 4: Core Logic Summary - The article outlines several macroeconomic factors influencing the futures market: - Federal Reserve policy changes impact Treasury futures and precious metals [11]. - Domestic economic data falling short of expectations may affect stock index futures [11]. - Geopolitical risks and OPEC+ policy changes significantly influence crude oil prices [11]. - Environmental regulations and real estate policy adjustments affect the black commodity sector [11]. - Agricultural products are sensitive to weather anomalies and changes in import policies [11].

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced a rebound, with silver leading the gains, driven by expectations of monetary policy easing and geopolitical uncertainties [1][2] Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve officials indicated a need for continued interest rate cuts in the coming months, with expectations for two more cuts this year [1] - The dollar index rose, reflecting market reactions to the Fed's stance on monetary policy [1] Political Uncertainty - The failure of the Republican funding bill in the House of Representatives to pass in the Senate has heightened the risk of a government shutdown, increasing market volatility [1] - Ongoing political interventions, including a request for a response from a Federal Reserve official to former President Trump, continue to disrupt expectations of monetary policy independence [1] Geopolitical Factors - The European Union has implemented its 19th round of sanctions against Russia, contributing to market uncertainty [1] - In the Middle East, discussions for a ceasefire in Gaza and recognition of Palestine by multiple countries are intensifying geopolitical fragmentation, which is raising risk aversion among investors [1] Market Sentiment - Citigroup has raised its three-month gold price target to $3,800 per ounce, reflecting a long-term optimistic outlook for gold prices [1] - The combination of monetary policy easing expectations, political and geopolitical uncertainties, and bullish sentiment from institutions is providing upward momentum for gold and silver prices [2] Technical Analysis - Technically, New York gold is supported around $3,550 and may test the $3,800 level, while silver, benefiting from both financial and industrial demand, has the potential to rise towards $45 after breaking the $43 mark [2] - Overall, any pullbacks in gold and silver prices are viewed as opportunities for positioning, as both metals remain in a long-term bull market [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the bullish trend for gold remains intact despite short-term fluctuations, with potential for gold prices to reach $4,000 by year-end due to lower opportunity costs from the Fed's interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical risks [3][4] - Last week, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, which acted as a strong catalyst for gold prices, pushing them to a historical high of $3,707.40 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 40% [3][4] - Gold prices experienced a weekly increase of 1.15%, closing at $3,684.93, marking five consecutive weeks of gains, indicating resilience in the market [2][3] Group 2 - The gold market opened at $3,642.90 and saw a strong upward trend after hitting a weekly low of $3,626.20, ultimately closing at $3,684.90, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend [4] - The current trading range for gold is between $3,672 and $3,707, with potential targets set at $3,692 and $3,700, and further attention on historical resistance levels if these are breached [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests testing support levels for crude oil and holding various long - positions in light positions [1] - Citi analysts believe that Brent crude oil prices will gradually decline to around $60 per barrel from the end of this year to 2026 due to OPEC+ phasing out "second - round production cuts" and expected growth in global crude oil inventories. The daily average increase in global crude oil inventories is predicted to be 1.1 million barrels in 2025 and 2.1 million barrels in 2026 [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Benchmark Crude - Brent (Dated): Price data not provided. North Sea supply recovery expectations suppress prices, while geopolitical risks provide bottom - line support [2] - WTI (Cushing): Price is $64.08, with a daily change of $0.3. The end of the US refinery autumn maintenance season and rising demand drive up inland oil prices [2] - Dubai: Price is $81.21, with a daily change of $0.34. Stable Asian refinery procurement demand and lower official Middle - East selling prices stimulate buying interest [2] - Oman: Price is $81.55, with a daily change of $0.45. Driven by the strengthening of the Dubai benchmark, the spot discount of Omani crude oil narrows [2] Regional Crude Oil Spreads - Brent/WTI (Front): Spread is $4.18, with a daily change of - $0.07. Increased US exports narrow the trans - Atlantic spread and the arbitrage window closes [2] - Brent EFP (Nov): Spread is - $0.01, with a daily change of - $0.05. The deepening contango structure in the futures market reflects the expectation of abundant short - term supply [2] - Dubai/Oman Swap (Oct): Spread is $0.1, with a daily change of $0.03. Tight Omani crude oil supply leads to an expanded premium relative to Dubai [2] Refining Profits - Gasoline裂解 (Singapore vs Dubai): Price is $8.93. Seasonal decline in Asian gasoline demand puts pressure on refinery profit margins [4] - Diesel裂解 (Singapore vs Dubai): Price is $18.91. Robust industrial demand and low inventories support strong diesel cracking [4] - Jet fuel裂解 (Singapore vs Dubai): Price is $17.86. The continuous recovery of the aviation industry, but the commissioning of new refining capacity increases supply pressure [4] Key Middle - East Crude - Umm Lulu: Price is $69.9, with a daily change of - $0.91, and a spread of $3.16 to Dubai. Weak demand for heavy crude oil and refineries' preference for light, low - sulfur crude oil lead to an expanded discount [4] - Das Blend: Price is $69.35, with a daily change of - $0.91, and a spread of $2.61 to Dubai. Reduced purchases by Asian buyers increase the pressure of oversupply in the spot market [4] - Murban: Price is $69.85, with a daily change of - $0.91, and a spread of $3.11 to Dubai. The light - crude characteristics are favored by Asian refineries, but the overall market downturn drags down the price [4] Key Market News - The Premier of the State Council, Li Qiang, met with a delegation of US House of Representatives members [5] - Israeli MPs' visit to Taiwan was strongly condemned by the Chinese embassy [5] - Trump pressured European countries to stop buying Russian oil [5] - Iran will suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency due to the actions of the UK, France, and Germany in pushing for the resumption of sanctions against Iran [5] - The EU is considering trade measures against the Russian "Friendship" oil pipeline [6] - Citi analysts predict that Brent crude prices will decline from the end of this year to 2026 due to OPEC+ actions and expected inventory growth [7] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 1, indicating a neutral trend on a scale from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in silver prices is attributed to expectations of overseas monetary policy, geopolitical risks, and a recovery in industrial demand [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Influencing Silver Prices - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions are a primary factor, with expectations of future rate cuts supporting precious metal prices [2][3]. - Geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and instability in the Middle East, have heightened market risk aversion, further supporting silver prices [1][2]. - The recent dovish comments from new Federal Reserve Governor Milan, advocating for significant rate cuts, have positively influenced market expectations and contributed to the rebound in silver prices [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Demand - The silver market is experiencing a favorable fundamental situation, particularly due to a recovery in the photovoltaic industry, which has seen a significant increase in demand for silver [2]. - Investment demand for silver has risen sharply, as evidenced by the increase in holdings of major silver ETFs from 25,999 tons at the beginning of the year to 27,681 tons by mid-September, an increase of 1,682 tons [3]. - The global silver supply-demand gap is projected to reach 3,659 tons by 2025, indicating a continued supply shortage that will drive strong international silver prices [3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The current gold-silver ratio is at 85.63, significantly above the historical average of 62.09, suggesting potential for further correction and upward movement in silver prices [3]. - Key factors to monitor include potential adjustments to China's LPR loan rates, future indications from the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, developments in geopolitical situations, and economic data from major countries [3].

Group 1: International Recognition of Palestine - Multiple countries, including the UK, Canada, Australia, and Portugal, have officially recognized the State of Palestine, aiming to revive hopes for peace and the viability of a two-state solution [3][4]. - UK Prime Minister Starmer emphasized the need to end the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and condemned Israel's actions as intolerable [3]. - Canadian Prime Minister Trudeau stated that the recognition is part of a coordinated international effort to maintain the feasibility of the two-state solution, criticizing Israel's settlement expansions [3][4]. Group 2: Israeli Military Actions - The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) reported that over 550,000 people have evacuated from northern Gaza City as military operations against Hamas intensify [6][7]. - The IDF has entered Gaza City, marking a new phase in military operations that may last for months [8]. - The Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Netanyahu, has expressed that the recognition of Palestine by other nations threatens Israel's existence and reiterated its pursuit of peace through strength [4][5]. Group 3: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver futures prices surged, reaching a record high of 10,223 yuan per kilogram, driven by expectations of changes in U.S. monetary policy, geopolitical risks, and recovering industrial demand [11][12]. - Analysts noted that the recent increase in silver prices is influenced by dovish comments from new Federal Reserve officials, suggesting potential interest rate cuts [12][13]. - The silver market is expected to remain strong due to a projected supply-demand gap and increased investment demand, particularly in the photovoltaic sector [14].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in international gold prices, including a sharp drop after reaching a historical peak, reflect a disconnect between market expectations and reality, particularly following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut announcement [1][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices surged to a record high of $3700 per ounce before plummeting to around $3650, illustrating the volatility in investor sentiment [1][3]. - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00% to 4.25% was initially expected to support gold prices, yet the opposite occurred, leading to a 0.12% decline in spot gold prices [3]. - Historical data shows that after 32 rate cuts since 2000, gold prices increased on the first trading day post-cut 20 times, indicating that the recent decline is not unprecedented [3]. Group 2: Central Bank Activities - Central banks globally are playing an increasingly significant role in the gold market, with total gold purchases reaching 1045 tons in 2024, marking the third consecutive year above 1000 tons [4]. - China's central bank has also been increasing its gold reserves, reaching 72.96 million ounces by the end of November 2024, reflecting a trend towards diversifying reserve assets [4]. - The ongoing accumulation of gold by central banks is seen as a response to the need for diversification away from sovereign credit risks, reinforcing gold's status as a "hard currency" [4]. Group 3: Economic and Geopolitical Factors - Experts highlight that gold's role as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation has been reinforced by current economic and geopolitical uncertainties [6]. - Geopolitical tensions in regions like the Middle East and Russia are driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, providing support for prices [6]. - The tightening liquidity in the market has led some institutional investors to reduce their gold holdings, contributing to short-term price volatility [6]. Group 4: Investment Trends - There is a notable shift in consumer behavior regarding gold, with demand for gold jewelry declining while investment in gold bars and coins has increased significantly [7]. - In the first half of 2024, gold consumption totaled 523.753 tons, with gold jewelry demand dropping by 26.68% while gold bars and coins saw a 46.02% increase [7]. - The divergence in demand between high-premium gold jewelry and lower-premium investment gold indicates changing consumer preferences in the market [7]. Group 5: Market Outlook - Optimists argue that the ongoing central bank gold purchasing trend, persistent doubts about the dollar's credibility, and geopolitical risks provide a solid foundation for long-term gold price increases [9]. - Conversely, pessimists caution that gold prices are at historical highs, showing signs of being overbought, and that the risks of a short-term correction should not be overlooked [9]. - The underlying drivers of gold prices are shifting from simple interest rate changes to deeper questions about the macro credit system, suggesting that gold's safe-haven and anti-inflation properties may be further emphasized in the current global landscape [10].