Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market experienced significant fluctuations last week, with key influencing factors being US-EU tariff negotiations, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and US economic data [1][3]. Market Overview - As of July 28, the silver price in Shanghai varied across different trading platforms, with prices ranging from 9142 to 9184 CNY per kilogram [1]. - The main silver futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 9212.00 CNY per kilogram, reflecting a decline of 1.71%, with a daily trading volume of 1,203,307 contracts [1]. Trading Data - On July 25, the silver futures warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange totaled 1,187,254 kilograms, a decrease of 1,467 kilograms from the previous trading day [2]. - On July 24, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange reported a silver futures trading volume of 56,012 contracts, down by 13,707 contracts from the previous day, with open interest decreasing by 301 contracts to 173,958 [2]. Analytical Insights - According to research from Shenwan Hongyuan Futures, negotiations are peaking ahead of new tariff deadlines, with potential preliminary agreements on a 15% tariff between the US and EU, leading to reduced risk aversion [3]. - Despite pressure from President Trump on the Federal Reserve for interest rate cuts, expectations for a July rate cut remain low, influenced by a rebound in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) [3]. - The overall economic data from the US indicates that the impact of tariff policies may be less severe than previously feared, although future effects could gradually increase [3]. - The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" plan is expected to further elevate US fiscal deficit expectations, while the People's Bank of China continues to increase its gold reserves, providing long-term support for gold prices despite high levels causing upward movement to be hesitant [3].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic precious metal futures market is experiencing a decline, while international precious metals are showing slight gains, indicating mixed market sentiment influenced by external economic factors [1][3]. Domestic Precious Metals Market - As of July 28, the main contract for Shanghai gold is priced at 773.64 CNY per gram, down 0.48%, and Shanghai silver is at 9186.00 CNY per kilogram, down 1.98% [1]. - The opening price for Shanghai gold was 772.82 CNY, with a high of 775.84 CNY and a low of 770.58 CNY [2]. - The market is showing a bearish trend, with the recent price movements reflecting a lack of strong upward momentum [5]. International Precious Metals Market - COMEX gold is priced at 3342.00 USD per ounce, up 0.10%, and COMEX silver at 38.40 USD per ounce, up 0.18% [1]. - The opening price for COMEX gold was 3321.10 USD, with a high of 3344.00 USD and a low of 3303.00 USD [2]. Market Influences - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is creating uncertainty, with traders speculating on potential rate cuts, which may be suppressing gold prices [3]. - Recent data from the CFTC shows a significant increase in gold and silver positions, indicating growing interest in these assets despite current price declines [3]. - The U.S. labor market remains strong, as evidenced by a decrease in unemployment claims, which may influence the Fed's decision on interest rates [4]. Technical Analysis - COMEX gold has seen a decline for three consecutive days, closing at 3338.5 USD per ounce, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market [5]. - The market is characterized by a lack of consensus on key factors such as tariff policies and the potential for Fed rate cuts, leading to increased volatility [5]. - Silver is supported by the performance of gold and expectations of a return to a favorable gold-silver ratio, making it an attractive investment option [6].

周末随着特朗普宣布与欧盟达成15%关税协定，市场避险情绪进一步消退，截至到8月1日，除开跟我们中国的最终关税协定 之外，基本没有其他的不确定性了，随着避险情绪的消退，市场关注重心也是转移到了美联储后续的降息时间节点之上，上 周特朗普造访美联储也是对美联储变相的施压，但是能不能坚持以往的原则，就要看后续的落地情况了，黄金上周初冲高到 3438附近之后承压开始一路走回落，上周五最低回踩到了3324附近，一度再度跌破了趋势线的支撑，短期也是再度转弱运 行，上方关注3340/44一带顶底转换的压力位，下方关注3310/3306附近强支撑情况，短期强转弱后先看空头延续情况。 黄金高位回落看延续，油价反弹无延续继续空！ 7/28黄金原油参考思路 黄金早盘在3338/40区间直接空，防守3347，目标看3322/3310附近，回踩初见3308/10附近多，防守3302，目标看3330附近 原油反弹66.2附近空，防守67，看65/64一线 思路仅供参考，盈亏风险自担，投资有风险，入市需谨慎！ 原油方面，随着美与欧盟达成关税协议之后市场看好后续经济状态良好以及带动的原油需求，一定程度上给原油有一定的支 撑，但是整体供应端的稳 ...

上周（7月21日至25日当周）国际金价高位回落，尤其是后半周，金价日线走出三连阴，当周累计下跌 13.67美元或0.41%，为连续第二周收跌。 分析来看，在美元走软和美债收益率下行的带动下，金价一度涨至五周新高，但随着贸易谈判进展的消 息传出，市场风险偏好情绪回升，打击了黄金的避险需求，上周后三个交易日金价累计下跌超100美 元。 上周四（7月24日），美国总统特朗普造访美联储总部，其间他当着媒体镜头，拿出一份列有建筑成本 的文件，质问身边的美联储主席鲍威尔建筑翻修成本怎么又高了。特朗普在美联储逗留期间，还再次敦 促鲍威尔降息。 另据媒体报道，资产管理公司Azoria Capital已对鲍威尔及部分联邦公开市场委员会成员提起诉讼，指控 其闭门会议程序违反《阳光政府法案》。这一指控为本已复杂的美联储局势再添变数。 贸易局势方面，美国总统特朗普23日在公开讲话中表示，将在15%至50%的税率范围内对美国贸易伙伴 征收所谓"对等关税"，针对某一国的具体税率将取决于美方如何评估与该国的关系。媒体分析认为，这 表明随着谈判期限迫近，特朗普政府倾向于采取分层策略，以推动更多国家尽快与美方签订协议。从美 国近期与日本达成的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced significant volatility this week, with a rebound from 3247 to 3438 followed by a decline, primarily driven by changes in economic indicators and geopolitical tensions [3][4][5][6]. Group 1: Factors Driving Gold Price Movements - The initial rebound in gold prices was supported by a decline in the US dollar and a drop in 10-year Treasury yields, which reduced the cost for non-dollar investors to purchase gold [3]. - Increased risk aversion due to approaching tariff negotiation deadlines and ongoing geopolitical conflicts led to a surge in safe-haven investments in gold [4]. - Market expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September enhanced gold's attractiveness, contributing to the price rebound [5]. Group 2: Key Reasons for the Subsequent Decline - A correction in the market's overly optimistic expectations for rate cuts occurred after strong economic data, including the PMI and CPI, indicated economic resilience, reducing gold's appeal [6]. - The announcement of a trade agreement between the US and Japan alleviated trade tension concerns, prompting a withdrawal of safe-haven investments from gold [8]. - A strong performance in the stock market, particularly the Nasdaq reaching new highs, shifted investor focus from safe-haven assets to riskier investments, further pressuring gold prices [8]. Group 3: Future Market Focus Points - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on July 29-30 will be crucial; a hawkish signal could lead to a drop in gold prices to around 3300, while a hint at a September rate cut might trigger a technical rebound [9]. - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the situation in Ukraine and trade dynamics between the US and Europe, will influence gold's safe-haven premium [10]. - The continuity of strong US economic data, including non-farm payrolls and PCE price index, will shape expectations for sustained high interest rates, impacting gold's market dynamics [11]. Group 4: Trading Strategy for Next Week - The market is currently in a triangular range, with a potential rebound expected if prices remain above the 3300 support level; the 20-day moving average at 3260 serves as a critical defense point [12]. - A trading strategy suggests buying in the 3310-3312 range with a stop-loss at 3300, targeting 3322-3324, while considering short positions in the 3351-3353 range with a stop-loss at 3363, targeting 3339-3341 [12][14].

Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold prices, reaching over $3,400 per ounce, has ignited the domestic gold market, leading to significant price increases in retail gold products [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent spike in gold prices is attributed to various factors, including stalled US-EU tariff negotiations, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and declining US Treasury yields, which have heightened risk aversion among investors [5]. - The demand for gold is increasing, particularly in high-tech industries such as AI chips, while supply remains constrained due to slow mining progress [5]. - The gold market is experiencing a significant divide, with recovery agents struggling to liquidate gold, while downstream retailers are hesitant to stock up due to fears of losses [6]. Group 2: Investment Insights - Successful gold investment requires substantial capital and precise market timing, as demonstrated by investors who have profited significantly from strategic buying and selling [3]. - Ordinary investors may find the "golden era" of gold investment elusive, as evidenced by minimal profits from small-scale investments [5]. - The volatility of gold prices poses risks, with a notable drop of $160 in just half a month, highlighting the market's unpredictable nature [6]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Risks - Investors should maintain a rational approach, allocating only 5% to 10% of their assets to gold as a hedge against risk [8]. - Practical investment strategies include adhering to specific buying and selling disciplines, such as entering the market during geopolitical crises or when prices exceed certain moving averages [8]. - The gold recovery market is fraught with risks, including potential fraud and significant hidden costs associated with storage and resale [8].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a significant price surge, with international gold prices exceeding $3,400 per ounce, while domestic gold jewelry prices have also risen sharply, indicating a complex interplay of excitement and caution within the industry [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On July 22, COMEX gold futures surged by 1.55%, leading to a corresponding increase in domestic gold prices, with Shanghai Gold Exchange quoting around 781.50 yuan per gram [2]. - Major jewelry brands like Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang responded quickly, raising prices by 7-10 yuan per gram, with prices reaching 1,015 yuan and 1,021 yuan per gram for gold jewelry [2]. - The influx of funds into the gold market is driven by rising risk aversion, with 18.7 tons of capital flowing into gold ETFs in a single day [2]. Group 2: Industry Challenges - Despite rising gold prices, the industry faces a "price without market" dilemma, as high prices deter downstream dealers from purchasing large quantities, leading to significant cash flow pressures for upstream suppliers [3]. - Many gold merchants are adopting conservative strategies, preferring to sell immediately rather than stockpile inventory due to fears of price corrections [3]. - Individual investors have mixed experiences, with some successfully selling at high prices while others regret missed opportunities [3]. Group 3: Silver Market Emergence - Silver prices have also surged, reaching over $33 per ounce, marking a near thirteen-year high, with platinum prices increasing nearly 60% to a ten-year high [6]. - Interest in silver investment is growing, but there are barriers such as minimum purchase requirements and significant buy-sell price spreads that limit profitability for investors [8]. Group 4: Future Price Predictions - Market predictions for gold prices are highly divergent, with institutions like Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan forecasting prices to exceed $4,000 per ounce by 2026, while Citigroup predicts a potential decline to the $2,500-$2,700 range [9]. - The long-term fundamentals supporting gold prices remain strong, with central banks globally planning to increase their gold reserves and a supply-demand imbalance due to stagnant mining output and rising industrial demand [11].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the precious metals market fluctuated. Gold prices were affected by factors such as US - EU tariff negotiations, Fed policy expectations, and US economic data. Silver was relatively strong due to semiconductor demand and tight inventories. Looking ahead, potential trade risks and geopolitical tensions support precious metals, while strong US economic data may suppress gold prices in the short - term. If inflation expectations rise or the Fed gives more dovish signals, precious metal prices could be boosted again [7]. - Gold is recommended to be bought on dips in the range of $3300 - 3400 per ounce, and silver should be watched in the range of $38.50 - 39.50 per ounce [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Gold prices rose at the beginning of the week due to US fiscal and political uncertainties and approaching US - EU tariff negotiation deadlines. However, they dropped on Wednesday as the US - Japan agreement and progress in US - EU negotiations eased risk - aversion. Fed policy interpretations were divided, and strong economic data weakened September rate - cut bets, further pressuring gold. Silver was relatively strong, with COMEX silver futures reaching a high of $39.66 per ounce, supported by semiconductor demand and tight inventories [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Although the US - EU tariff negotiation has eased, potential trade risks and geopolitical tensions support precious metals. Strong US economic data may suppress gold in the short - term, but rising inflation expectations or dovish Fed signals could lift prices [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Changes**: As of July 25, 2025, COMEX silver was at $39.100 per ounce, up 1.63% week - on - week; Shanghai silver futures contract 2510 was at 9392 yuan per kilogram, up 2.24%. COMEX gold was at $3356.3 per ounce, down 0.05%; Shanghai gold futures contract 2510 was at 777.32 yuan per gram, up 0.26% [10]. - **ETF Holdings**: As of July 24, 2025, SLV silver ETF holdings were 15208 tons, up 3.5% week - on - week; SPDR gold ETF holdings were 957.09 tons, up 0.9% [15]. - **Speculative Positions**: As of July 15, 2025, COMEX gold total positions were 448531 contracts, up 1.22%, and net positions were 213115, up 5.00%. COMEX silver total positions were 171474 contracts, up 5.33%, and net positions were 59448, up 1.58% [19]. - **CFTC Positions**: As of July 15, 2025, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 270227 contracts, up 3.30%, and non - commercial short positions were 57112 contracts, down 2.70% [24]. - **Basis**: As of July 24, 2025, the gold basis was - 3.64 yuan per gram, up 0.27%; the silver basis was - 35 yuan per kilogram, up 43.55% [27]. - **Inventories**: As of July 24, 2025, COMEX gold inventory was 37616678.62 ounces, up 1.27%; Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory was 28857 kilograms, up 17.38%. COMEX silver inventory was 497984759 ounces, up 0.30%; Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory was 1211076 kilograms, down 7.10% [32]. 3.3 Silver Industry and Supply - Demand - **Imports**: As of June 2025, China's silver imports were 273364.75 kilograms, down 0.14% month - on - month; silver ore imports were 126019303.00 kilograms, down 7.51% [36]. - **Downstream Demand**: As of June 2025, semiconductor silver demand drove up the growth rate of integrated circuit production, with a monthly output of 4506000 pieces and a year - on - year growth rate of 15.80% [41]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2024, silver industrial demand was 680.5 million ounces, up 4% year - on - year; coin and bar demand was 190.9 million ounces, down 22%; silver ETF net investment demand was 61.6 million ounces, compared with - 37.6 million ounces in the previous year; total demand was 1164.1 million ounces, down 3%. Supply was 1015.1 million ounces, up 2%, resulting in a supply - demand gap of - 148.9 million ounces, down 26% [47][51]. 3.4 Gold Industry and Supply - Demand - **Prices**: As of July 24, 2025, the gold recycling price was 774.7 yuan per gram, up 0.28%. Gold jewelry prices of brands like Laofengxiang, Chow Tai Fook, and Saturday Fu also rose [55]. - **Supply - Demand**: In Q1 2025, gold industrial demand was 7396.6 ounces, gold investment demand was 50741 ounces, up 71.93%; jewelry demand was 39899.9 ounces, down 10.47%; total demand was 120440.4 ounces, up 7.12% [61]. 3.5 Macroeconomic Data - **Dollar and Bonds**: This week, the US dollar index and 10 - year US Treasury yields declined slightly due to fluctuating tariff expectations. The 10Y - 2Y Treasury yield spread narrowed slightly, the CBOE gold volatility index rose, and the SP500/COMEX gold price ratio increased [63][68]. - **Inflation Expectations**: Tariff negotiations made progress, and inflation expectations declined recently. The US 10 - year breakeven inflation rate dropped this week [72]. - **Central Bank Actions**: In July 2025, the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by about 1.86 tons, marking the eighth consecutive month of increases [77].

Group 1 - Silver prices have been on the rise since July, becoming a focal point in the global commodity market, with a significant increase of 18% in Q1 2025, reaching $34 per ounce [1] - As of July, silver prices peaked at over $39 per ounce, marking a 14-year high, with an annual increase exceeding 35%, outpacing gold's performance [1] - The rise in silver prices is attributed to a combination of safe-haven demand and industrial needs, with geopolitical risks and trade tensions driving investment towards silver as a "gold alternative" [1] Group 2 - Industrial demand is a major factor in the rising silver prices, with a projected increase of 4% in industrial demand for 2024, reaching 680.5 million ounces, driven by green economy applications [2] - Historically, silver has been recognized as a valuable element, used as currency since 700 BC, and has maintained its status as a store of value across various cultures [2] - Silver's intrinsic value remains significant, securing its place in diverse investment portfolios [2] Group 3 - Silver and gold, both precious metals, differ in their attributes; gold has stronger financial properties while silver has greater commodity attributes [3] - Gold's demand is primarily from physical consumption and financial investment, whereas silver's price is more influenced by industrial demand and supply factors [3] - Silver's market is more susceptible to volatility due to its smaller market size and liquidity compared to gold, leading to stronger speculative tendencies [3]

Core Viewpoints - Recent developments in trade agreements are reducing global economic uncertainty, leading to a decrease in market risk aversion, which may result in short-term fluctuations in precious metals [1] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is increasingly influenced by political pressures, particularly from the Trump administration, which may lead to unexpected rate cuts and support for precious metals, especially silver [2] - Gold has outperformed the S&P 500 over the past 20 years, driven by geopolitical tensions and central bank purchases, indicating a shift in investment strategies towards gold as a reliable asset [3] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Factors - The sentiment in the precious metals market is currently influenced by the progress of trade agreements and the Federal Reserve's policy independence, with expectations of continued fluctuations in gold prices [1][2] - The historical performance of gold and silver indicates that gold prices are primarily driven by U.S. fiscal deficits and global risk events, while silver prices are more sensitive to expectations of Federal Reserve easing [2] Group 2: Central Bank Actions and Investment Trends - Central banks are increasingly adding gold to their reserves as a diversification strategy away from dollar-denominated assets, which supports the long-term upward trend in gold prices [3][4] - The demand for gold remains strong despite stock market rebounds, driven by concerns over government debt levels and a weaker dollar, which enhances the appeal of gold as an alternative currency asset [4]