2026年，对于英国经济而言，一个悬而未决的核心问题是消费能否最终摆脱低迷。研究认为家庭会增加 消费，然而近期情况表明未必如此。持续的谨慎态度可能意味着明年英国经济增速会低于1%。 政治是经济前景面临的另一个不确定因素。首相斯塔默会不会下台？财政大臣里夫斯是否会被撤换？这 些猜测可能会在2026年继续发酵。最新预算案出台后，英国的公共财政依然脆弱不堪。如果执政的工党 领导层放松财政纪律，投资者对英国债务轨迹的担忧会再度浮现。 研究预计进入2026年，经济环比增速会有所加快，季度平均增速预计为0.3%。这意味着年增长率为 1.2%，低于2025年的1.4%，去年上半年经济活动的前置给全年经济增长带来了提振。 2026年通胀率预计会从2025年的3.4%降至2.3%，主要是由于明年4月年度同比数据会剔除多项一次性因 素。政府在预算案中提出要降低能源价格，这意味着年度CPI涨幅会从春季起逐步回归2%的通胀目标。 据研究预计，到2026年结束时，英国央行政策利率会从当前的4.0%下调到3.5%，这意味着，除了今年 12月可能会降息一次，明年还会有一次下调——可能会在4月。 消费能不能恢复活力？ 由于关税和国内税率上调 ...

今日周二(12月9日)亚盘时段，现货白银目前交投于38.25一线上方，今日开盘于58.13美元/盎司，截至发 稿，现货白银暂报58.29美元/盎司，上涨0.32%，最高触及58.42美元/盎司，最低下探57.86美元/盎司， 目前来看，现货白银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 哈塞特称赞鲍威尔在本次会议前有效协调了FOMC内部意见："我认为他在'管好一屋子猫'方面做得很 好，成功凝聚了降息共识。我相信鲍威尔也认同我的观点——我们可能应该继续降低利率。" 【最新现货白银行情解析】 白银价格在前期高点下方窄幅整理而非深度回调，是市场内在力量稳固的标志。10日均线当前正向上朝 价格靠拢，该均线自被果断收复以来已连续两周未被触及，即将迎来本轮涨势启动后的首次真正考验。 若能在此成功坚守，将重现20日均线在11月完美防守后启动当前行情的经典走势，极有可能推动价格开 启新一轮加速上涨。 若长期上升通道上轨转化为阻力位，白银可能迎来更深度的回调，这是一条较为不利但仍具可能性的技 术路径。当前多重技术指标已密集汇聚于59.89至60.20美元区间，形成近端上行关键阻力；若银价能有 效突破该区域，将迅速打开上测63.42至67.94美元 ...

澳大利亚央行周二维持利率在3.60%不变，但在其评论和指引中警告称，该国经济中的通胀风险日益增 长。澳大利亚央行称，近期一些回暖的数据确实显示出一些更广泛的通胀回升迹象，其中部分通胀回升 可能是持续性的，需要密切关注。该评论应会打消任何有关进一步降息的想法，并预示着下一步行动将 是2026年某个时候加息。 责任编辑：王永生 澳大利亚央行周二维持利率在3.60%不变，但在其评论和指引中警告称，该国经济中的通胀风险日益增 长。澳大利亚央行称，近期一些回暖的数据确实显示出一些更广泛的通胀回升迹象，其中部分通胀回升 可能是持续性的，需要密切关注。该评论应会打消任何有关进一步降息的想法，并预示着下一步行动将 是2026年某个时候加息。 责任编辑：王永生 ...

每经编辑｜张喜威 王晓波 √中国1至11月社会融资规模等数据将2 2 2025中国化肥行业高质量发展大会将 日至10日举办 3 Carbontech2025第九届国际碳材料; 业展览会将于12月9日至11日在上海举办 4 沃尔玛12月9周从纽交所转板至纳斯达 5 OpenAl的CPT-5.2模型已完成准备， 月9日发布 1 隔夜市场 美股三大指数集体收跌，道指跌0.45%，纳指跌0.14%，标普500指数跌0.35%，大型科技股多数下跌，特斯拉跌超3%，谷歌跌逾2%，亚马逊跌超1%，脸书 跌近1%，苹果跌0.32%；微软、英伟达涨超1%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨0.08%，中概股涨跌不一，高途、世纪互联涨超4%，百度、名创优品涨超3%，小 鹏汽车、新东方涨超2%，网易跌超2%，爱奇艺跌近1%。 12月8日，白宫经济顾问哈塞特就美联储发表看法称，应该继续降低利率。关于利率应降至多低的问题，他表示必须密切关注数据情况。他还表示，若现在 就公布未来6个月的利率承诺，将是不负责任的行为。 国际油价大幅走低，截至发稿时，美油主力合约跌2.13%，报58.8美元/桶；布伦特原油主力合约跌2.01%，报62.47美元/桶。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a hawkish interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve is prevalent among market participants, with a likely reduction of 25 basis points anticipated [2][3][4]. Interest Rate Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to reach a 3% funds rate, with the current labor market data supporting this move despite elevated inflation [4][5]. - There is a debate on whether the upcoming meeting should proceed due to a lack of comprehensive data caused by the government shutdown, but sufficient job market data exists to justify the meeting [5][7]. Market Reactions - A hawkish cut could lead to an increase in interest rates, particularly on the long end of the yield curve, with current rates around 4.17% to 4.18% [8]. - There is a cautious sentiment among investors regarding taking on more significant risks, with some considering waiting for better entry points before investing [9][10]. Global Influences - The influence of Japan on U.S. interest rates has diminished due to technical reasons, but movements in Japanese and UK rates still impact U.S. rates [11][12]. - The current rate backups in Europe present attractive investment opportunities, particularly for European fixed income, due to favorable currency swap effects [13].

Mandel Ngan / AFP via Getty Images Fed officials are divided about whether to cut rates to boost the job market, or keep them higher for longer to fight inflation. Key Takeaways The Federal Reserve will meet on Dec. 9 and 10 to decide whether to cut the fed funds rate for a third consecutive meeting. Both sides of the Fed's "dual mandate" are deteriorating, and the Fed also lacks data due to the government shutdown that ended in November. The Federal Reserve's policy committee meets next on Dec. 9 a ...

So, we're going to get the Fed decision. Bin, nice to have you in the house on Wednesday. Uh, Oracle and Broadcom are important as we said.Tony Pascarelloo, Goldman Sachs keeps his responsibly bullish stance says, "Looking forward, my baseline view is net positive. Why? The Fed's increasing liquidity into an upswing in growth. The flow of capital is supportive and that's the core of my simple calculus." Other calculus today, Oppenheimer 8,100 on the S&P next year, 7,500 for UBS. How you feeling ahead of thi ...

Good morning, Sarah. Yeah, some good breaking news from the New York Fed with inflation expectations unchanged and labor market indicators improving. Let's go through them.The one-year, the three-year, and the 5-year uh inflation expectations from the New York Fed survey all unchanged. 3 2 3 and three. Now, these are all a bit elevated, but it's good news that they're not going up.Inflation expectations rise for food, gas, medical care, a big increase there, and rent as well. Now, there's fodder for both ha ...

Economic Outlook - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the economy is performing "better than we thought," with a projected 3% real GDP growth for the year, following a 0.6% growth in Q1 and a 3.8% growth in Q2, with Q3 growth estimated at 3.5% by the Atlanta Fed [2][6] - Consumer sentiment is mixed, with the University of Michigan's survey showing a reading of 53.3, which is up 4.5 percentage points from November but down 28 points year over year, potentially influencing the Federal Open Markets Committee to lower interest rates [3] Earnings Reports - Upcoming earnings reports include Toll Brothers, expected to report Q4 earnings of $4.88 per share on $3.3 billion in sales, with AutoZone and Campbell's scheduled for Tuesday, and tech companies Oracle, Adobe, and Synopsys on Wednesday [4]

白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特周一表示，美联储若提前公布未来六个月的利率路径将是"不负责任 的"，他强调货币政策应严格依据经济数据灵活调整。"美联储主席的职责是紧盯数据、适时调整，并解 释为何采取特定行动，"哈塞特说，"如果说'我未来六个月要这么做'，那确实是不负责任的。"作为现任 主席鲍威尔继任的热门人选，哈塞特被问及预计2026年还需降息多少次。他回避具体预测："我不想让 大家失望于对降息次数的猜测，但我可以说，关键是要看数据。"哈塞特称赞鲍威尔在本次会议前有效 协调了FOMC内部意见："我认为他在'管好一屋子猫'方面做得很好，成功凝聚了降息共识。我相信鲍威 尔也认同我的观点——我们可能应该继续降低利率。" 来源：滚动播报 ...