Group 1 - Asian stock markets are buoyant following weak U.S. employment data, with expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - The MSCI Asia Index rises, led by Japan, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures also show slight increases due to anticipated Fed actions [1] - Chinese stock markets, however, experience a decline of over 2% due to concerns over a $1.2 trillion margin financing event, prompting potential tightening of monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The bond market remains favorable as traders expect two more interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve by the end of the year [3] - Global bond yields decline in response to falling U.S. Treasury yields, with non-farm payroll data being a critical indicator for future monetary policy [3] - Gold prices have seen a drop after seven consecutive days of increases, although long-term trends indicate structural support from central banks [3] Group 3 - Brent crude oil prices fall to $67 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate drops below $64, with discussions of "oversupply" rather than "scarcity" emerging [5] - OPEC+ considers increasing production, which seems counterintuitive given the current market conditions, as supply growth outpaces demand absorption [5] - Geopolitical factors, including U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, complicate the oil market, with traders noting that oil continues to flow to China and India despite sanctions [6] Group 4 - The market shows a divergence: stock markets are buoyed by Fed's accommodative policies, gold receives support from central banks, while oil struggles under supply surplus pressures [6] - Liquidity remains a dominant force in the market, but its distribution is uneven across different asset classes [6]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs predicts that if the credibility of the Federal Reserve is damaged, gold prices could approach $5,000 per ounce, with a baseline forecast of $4,000 by mid-2026 [1] - Morgan Stanley expects gold prices to reach $3,675 per ounce by the end of the year, driven by anticipated Fed rate cuts [1] - Citigroup forecasts silver prices to rise to $43 per ounce in the next few months due to tightening supply and growing investment demand [2] Group 2 - HSBC raised its S&P 500 index target for the end of the year to 6,500 points, citing strong corporate earnings and expectations of Fed rate cuts [2] - Goldman Sachs anticipates Brent crude oil prices to fall to just above $50 per barrel next year due to a global oil surplus [3] - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce indicates a bullish outlook for the USD/JPY currency pair, suggesting potential upward movement towards the 150 level [3] Group 3 - Citic Securities predicts that gold prices could exceed $3,730 per ounce by the end of the year, influenced by various economic factors [8] - Citic Securities also notes that the liquidity gap in September may narrow compared to August, indicating a stable monetary policy environment [8] - Citic Securities suggests that the 30-year mortgage rates in the U.S. have room to decline, but the extent may be limited [9]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs predicts that due to global oil oversupply, the benchmark Brent crude oil price will drop to just above $50 per barrel next year [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Current oversupply in the oil market is intensifying, with strong growth in oil supply from non-OPEC countries outside the U.S. expected to lead to a surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day by 2026 [1] - The reduction of idle capacity within OPEC+ may lead to increased price volatility in the event of supply disruptions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has repeatedly downgraded its 2025 oil demand forecast, indicating that with OPEC+ increasing production, concerns about oversupply in the oil market may intensify. The rising penetration of electric vehicles is expected to continue putting pressure on oil prices, which may drop to $55 this year [3]. IEA Oil Demand Forecast - The IEA's multiple downgrades of oil demand forecasts suggest a potential oversupply in the market due to OPEC+'s decision to increase production by 54,700 barrels per day in September. This could lead to a supply surplus of up to 600,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter, resulting in increased global oil inventories [5][8]. - If OPEC+ exits its next phase of voluntary production cuts (1.66 million barrels per day), U.S. comparable inventories (crude oil, gasoline, and diesel) could rise from 764 million barrels in the week of August 8 to 814 million barrels, an increase of 6.6% [5][6]. OPEC+ Production Increase - OPEC+ agreed to increase production by 54,700 barrels per day in September, marking the end of a voluntary production cut phase that began in 2023. While this increase has helped the organization regain market control, it may lead to oversupply in the fourth quarter [8]. - From July 30 to August 15, WTI oil prices fell by 9.4% to $62.80. Although the market does not rule out the possibility of OPEC+ exiting the next phase of voluntary cuts, it is expected that the organization will not consider this option until the first quarter of 2026, as policymakers may want to assess the impact of U.S. tariffs on global oil demand first [8].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-03原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2510： 1.基本面：土耳其总统埃尔多安表示，他在中国与俄罗斯总统普京会谈时讨论了结束乌克兰战争的方 式，并与乌克兰总统泽连斯基就此通了电话，但双方"尚未准备好"举行领导人会晤；投资者目前正关 注石油输出国组织(OPEC)及其盟国将于9月7日召开的会议，以寻找该组织对产量政策调整的任何线索。 市场机构预计该组织不会解除包括沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯在内的八个产油国的自愿减产规模；中性 2.基差：9月2日，阿曼原油现货价为71.9美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为71.28美元/桶，基差42.62 元/桶，现货升水期货；偏多 ...

Group 1: Gold Market - Economists express concerns that the Federal Reserve may lose its independence in setting interest rates due to Trump's actions, with 25% fearing this could happen before the end of his term in 2029 [1] - The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates an 89.6% probability of a rate cut in September, with a 47.3% chance of a 25 basis point cut in October [1] - Gold prices have been rising, nearing the historical high of $3500, with no immediate signs of a peak; short-term support is at $3466 [1] Group 2: Oil Market - The upcoming OPEC+ meeting is crucial, especially after the last meeting announced an increase in production by 547,000 barrels per day [3] - The U.S. crude oil production reached a record high of 13.58 million barrels per day in June, while the IEA warns of a global supply increase of 2.5 million barrels per day, significantly outpacing demand growth of 700,000 barrels per day [3] - Oil prices have been fluctuating between $62 and $65 since mid-August, with a potential for further declines if the price does not break above $65 [3] Group 3: Copper Market - Copper prices experienced a significant drop at the end of July and have been fluctuating between $4.32 and $4.50 in August, indicating a potential for further declines [6] - A short-term breakout above $4.50 was not sustained, with resistance at $4.51 and support at $4.46 [6] Group 4: Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index shows a weak downward trend, recently bouncing back from the support level around 41800; a stable position above 42400 could indicate a return to an upward trend [7]

黄金方面： 特朗普宣布对来自印度的商品征收50%的关税，旨在抑制印度购买俄罗斯的原油，不过数据显示印度仍旧在增加进口俄罗斯的 原油，以抵制来着美国的压力。美印关税对抗将加剧市场波动，需警惕风险。 技术面：原油上周维持低位震荡，曾一度上冲至65美元的位置，但走势仍旧偏弱，未能形成连续上涨。短线来看，65美元一线 若不能上破，则进一步下跌的概率大，短线下方关注63美元的支撑，若跌破则有下破61.80美元的风险。 原油小时图 铜方面： 过去的整个8月，铜价维持在4.32-4.50美元区间震荡，属于7月底大跌后的调整走势，反弹力度弱，后续或将进一步下跌。短线 来看，本周若出现上冲，则可以看向4.60美元一线。 自特朗普上任以来，曾多次表示解雇鲍威尔，最终迫于压力只能放弃。上周突然宣布解雇美联储理事库克，美联储理事目前共 有7名成员，特朗普已经任命其中的两名，另外沃勒即将辞职，若是让斯蒂芬·米兰接替库克的位置，那么将有4名美联储理事是 由特朗普任命，美联储的独立性将出现"裂痕"。 百利好特约智昇研究黄金高级分析师欧文认为，在杰克逊霍尔央行年会后，叠加近期劳动力市场已有走弱的迹象。市场对美联 储降息的预期愈发增强，黄金持 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices oscillated weakly due to concerns about global crude oil supply surplus and seasonal demand decline. OPEC+ relaxing production cuts and non - OPEC+ countries increasing production led to higher supply expectations. While refinery profits are good currently, the approaching end of the US summer driving season reduces gasoline demand expectations. Geopolitical factors offer some support but the overall market sentiment is bearish, with a high probability of short - term weak oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see on the single - side and look for opportunities to widen spreads on the option side after volatility increases [1]. Polyester Industry - PX: Supply is increasing as检修 devices restart, and downstream PTA has many unplanned shutdowns due to low processing fees. Although the "Golden September and Silver October" demand expectation exists, terminal load declined this week, and the demand support is limited. PX11 should focus on the support around 6800, and the strategy of widening the PX - SC spread should exit at high levels [43]. - PTA: In August - September, supply - demand situation has improved compared to expectations due to more unplanned shutdowns. However, terminal load declined this week, and demand support is limited. TA should focus on the support around 4750 and adopt a rolling reverse spread strategy for TA1 - 5 [43]. - Ethylene Glycol: Domestic supply is increasing as devices resume production, and port inventory is at a low level. With the approaching of the demand peak season, it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. Sellers of the short - put option EG2601 - P - 4350 can hold [43]. - Short - fiber: Supply load remains high, demand is uncertain, and it mainly follows raw material fluctuations. The single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk oscillates between 800 - 1100 with limited upward and downward drivers [43]. - Bottle chips: In August, it is the peak consumption season, and inventory is slowly decreasing. The processing fee has support at the bottom, but it is suppressed by the short - term strengthening of the cost side. The PR single - side strategy is the same as PTA, and the main - contract processing fee on the disk is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [43]. Methanol - Port inventory is increasing significantly, the basis is weak, and imports in September remain high. The supply side has high domestic and rising overseas non - Iranian production. The demand side is weak due to the off - season, but there is an expectation of MTO device restart in September. Future attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [72][74]. Urea - The rebound of the urea futures is driven by short - term supply contraction due to more device shutdowns for maintenance. Although daily production is still higher than last year, the expected production reduction supports the market. Downstream restocking also strengthens the supply - contraction expectation. However, the market is still in a state of inventory accumulation, and the rebound strength may be limited. Future attention should be paid to device restart progress, port collection, and industrial demand in North China before the parade [85]. Polyolefins - PP: Devices scheduled for restart next week will increase production. The price center is moving down, and the weighted profit is compressed. PP achieves inventory reduction with both supply and demand increasing. - PE: High - level maintenance will continue until September. It shows a stable - to - downward trend. Supply decreases while demand increases, with upstream inventory reduction and mid - stream inventory accumulation. Before mid - September, the overall supply pressure is not large, and the LP01 spread should be held [88]. Chlor - Alkali - Caustic Soda: The futures price is slightly falling, and the previous high - level resistance is obvious. Although the spot market was strong before, with good demand from Shandong's downstream alumina plants and inventory reduction, the supply is expected to increase as some plants resume production. The demand is growing, but the short - term futures pressure may be transmitted to the spot market, and short - selling can be considered [91]. - PVC: The futures price is weakening, and the spot price is also decreasing. Supply is expected to increase as new production capacity is put into use and maintenance decreases. Demand from downstream products is weak, and export pressure increases due to the Indonesian anti - dumping tax. Previous short positions can be held [91]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure Benzene: There is an expectation of supply - demand improvement in the third quarter, but as previous maintenance devices resume and there will be a concentrated arrival of pure benzene at the terminal in the second half of the month, the fundamental advantage is weakening. It oscillates weakly, and BZ2603 should follow the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene [94]. - Styrene: Downstream 3S load declined slightly this week. The industry is in a loss, supply is high, and port inventory is high, so the short - term drive is weak. However, there are more maintenance plans in September - October, and export expectations increase, so the supply - demand situation may improve. EB10 short positions should be closed at low levels, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [94]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On August 29, Brent crude was at $68.62/barrel (up $0.57 or 0.84% from August 28), WTI was at $64.19/barrel (down $0.41 or - 0.63%), and SC was at 500.10 yuan/barrel (up 6.60 yuan or 1.34%). Different price spreads also showed various changes [1]. - **Product Oil**: NYM RBOB increased by 2.34%, NYM ULSD decreased by 0.71%, and ICE Gasoil decreased by 0.04%. Different product oil spreads also changed on August 29 compared to August 28 [1]. - **Crack Spreads**: Crack spreads in different regions and for different products showed different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [1]. Polyester Industry - **Upstream Prices**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased, CFR Japan naphtha increased, CFR China MX decreased, etc. [43]. - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices of POY, FDY, DTY, etc. showed different changes, and cash flows also varied [43]. - **PX - Related**: CFR China PX, PX futures prices, and various PX spreads all changed [43]. - **PTA - Related**: PTA spot and futures prices decreased, and processing fees also changed [43]. - **MEG - Related**: MEG prices, basis, and cash flows showed different trends, and port inventory was at a low level [43]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 increased slightly, MA2509 decreased, and the MA91 spread and various regional spreads changed [72]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise, port, and social inventories all increased [73]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: Domestic upstream开工率 decreased slightly, overseas upstream开工率 increased slightly, and downstream开工率 showed different trends [74]. Urea - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: Different futures contracts showed different price changes, and contract spreads also changed [80][81]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices in different regions showed small fluctuations [84]. - **Supply and Demand**: Daily and weekly production, inventory, and开工率 all changed, with production slightly decreasing and inventory increasing [85]. Polyolefins - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all decreased, and various spreads and basis changed [88]. - **Inventory**: PE and PP enterprise and trade - related inventories showed different trends [88]. - **Upstream and Downstream开工率**: PE and PP装置开工率 and downstream加权开工率 changed slightly [88]. Chlor - Alkali - **PVC and Caustic Soda Prices**: Prices of different types of caustic soda and PVC in the spot and futures markets showed small changes [91]. - **Supply and Demand**:开工率 of caustic soda and PVC industries, downstream开工率 of caustic soda and PVC products, and inventory all changed [91]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - **Upstream Prices**: Crude oil, naphtha, and ethylene prices changed, and pure benzene - related prices and spreads also varied [94]. - **Styrene - Related Prices**: Styrene spot and futures prices, spreads, and cash flows changed [94]. - **Inventory**: Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports changed [94]. - **产业链开工率**:开工率 of different parts of the pure benzene and styrene industry chain changed [94].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical concerns and are expected to trade in the 480 - 490 range. Long - term, it is recommended to hold long positions, but there is significant upside pressure due to rumored Saudi price cuts and continued Russian oil imports by India [3]. - Citi maintains its forecast for the average price of Brent crude in the third quarter at $66 per barrel and expects the benchmark crude to average $63 in the fourth quarter. By the end of the year, the supply surplus will have a greater impact on the oil supply - demand balance [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - Fundamental factors for crude oil 2510 are mixed: 9 - month Russian oil exports to India may increase; Saudi may cut October official export prices; oil supply to Hungary and Slovakia from Russia has resumed. The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. US API and EIA inventories decreased last week, and Cushing area inventories also declined. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the average. WTI long positions increased, while Brent long positions decreased. Short - term, prices are expected to trade between 480 - 490, and long - term, long positions should be held [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Russia launched a large - scale missile and drone attack on Ukraine, causing damage to buildings in Kiev, strong reactions from European leaders, and casualties. Ukraine also attacked Russian refineries [5]. - German Chancellor Merz believes that a direct meeting between Putin and Zelensky is unlikely, casting doubt on Trump's efforts to promote a cease - fire agreement [5]. - Citi believes that Russia - related tariffs, sanctions, and attacks on Russian oil facilities are keeping oil prices high. Despite an impending supply surplus, OPEC + production increases are lower than expected, and India may diversify its oil procurement [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: US secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports; extension of the Sino - US tariff exemption period [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: A possible cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine; continued tension in US trade relations with other economies [6]. - **Market Drivers**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts are decreasing, and trade tariff risks are rising. In the long - term, supply will increase after the peak season ends [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: Brent crude settled at $67.98 (up $0.54, 0.80%), WTI at $64.60 (up $0.45, 0.70%), SC at 481.1 (down 5.30, - 1.09%), and Oman at $68.53 (down $0.92, - 1.32%) [7]. - **Spot Market**: UK Brent Dtd was at $67.51 (up $0.13, 0.19%), WTI at $64.60 (up $0.45, 0.70%), Oman at $69.81 (up $0.38, 0.55%), Shengli at $65.11 (up $0.01, 0.02%), and Dubai at $69.98 (up $0.53, 0.76%) [9]. - **Inventory Data**: US API crude inventories decreased by 974,000 barrels in the week ending August 22, and EIA inventories decreased by 2.392 million barrels. Cushing area inventories decreased by 838,000 barrels. Shanghai crude oil futures inventories remained at 5.721 million barrels as of August 28 [3]. 3.5 Position Data - As of August 19, WTI crude oil long positions increased, and Brent crude oil long positions decreased [3]. - WTI crude oil fund net long positions were 120,209 on August 19, an increase of 3,467 [17]. - Brent crude oil fund net long positions were 182,695 on August 19, a decrease of 23,852 [18].

Core Viewpoint - The new round of fuel price adjustments in China will take effect on August 26, with gasoline and diesel prices decreasing by 180 yuan/ton and 175 yuan/ton respectively, reflecting fluctuations in international oil prices during the adjustment period [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - From August 26, the price of 92 gasoline will decrease by 0.14 yuan per liter, saving consumers approximately 7 yuan for a full tank of 50 liters [1][4]. - The price of 95 gasoline will decrease by 0.15 yuan per liter, and the price of 0 diesel will also decrease by 0.15 yuan per liter [4]. Group 2: International Oil Price Trends - During the adjustment period from August 12 to August 25, international oil prices experienced a decline followed by an increase, with the average price level being lower than the previous adjustment cycle [2]. - The International Energy Agency has revised down its global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 while significantly raising the global oil supply growth forecast by 400,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day [2]. - The U.S. Energy Information Administration anticipates that U.S. crude oil production will reach a record high of 13.41 million barrels per day in 2025, with a substantial increase in U.S. crude oil inventories expected in the fourth quarter [2]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Russia regarding the Ukraine conflict, have contributed to fluctuations in oil prices, with market sentiment shifting from optimism to a stalemate [2]. - As the summer driving season comes to an end, oil demand is expected to gradually decline, compounded by increased production from OPEC+ and rising U.S. oil output, leading to a continued oversupply in the global oil market [2].