Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices rose due to geopolitical risks and optimistic trade sentiments, but were constrained by a surge in U.S. crude oil inventories [1][2] - As of the latest close, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for August settled at $67.45 per barrel, up $2.00 (3.06%), while Brent crude for September settled at $69.11 per barrel, also up $2.00 (2.98%) [1] - U.S. crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased by 3.8 million barrels, the largest rise in three months, contrasting with analyst expectations of a decrease of 1.8 million barrels [2] Group 2: Geopolitical and Trade Influences - Iran's decision to limit inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reflects a challenge to the Western-led non-proliferation regime, increasing geopolitical risk premiums [3] - The U.S. reached a zero-tariff agreement with Vietnam, which has temporarily boosted investor sentiment regarding trade relations [2][4] - The trade agreement is seen as a potential signal for more agreements before the July 9 deadline, although the actual economic impact remains uncertain [4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - Gasoline demand has dropped to 8.6 million barrels per day, raising concerns about summer driving season consumption, which typically requires around 9 million barrels per day to indicate market health [2][4] - Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports increased by 450,000 barrels per day in June, marking the largest rise in over a year, which may impact OPEC's production strategies [2] Group 4: Structural Challenges in Oil Production - The increase in U.S. crude oil inventories alongside Saudi export increases highlights the challenges faced by OPEC in balancing production cuts with market share [5] - The current market is experiencing a tug-of-war between "Iran risk premium" (+5% volatility potential) and "demand reality pressure" (-3% adjustment pressure), indicating a divergence between sentiment and data [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Bearish consolidation [1] - LPG: Weak [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX: Cautiously long at low levels [1] - PTA/PR: Short on rallies [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Glass: Interval correction [2] - Soda ash: Bearish [2] - Caustic soda: Interval rebound [2] - Methanol: Short on rallies [2] - Urea: Short on rallies [2] - Asphalt: Weak [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil: In the medium - long term, due to the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+ being in an expansion cycle, there is an oversupply of crude oil, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short term, with the decline of geopolitical risks, the oil price returns to fundamental pricing, and the short - term trend is weakly volatile. [4][5] - LPG: After the geopolitical premium of oil prices is squeezed out, the cost side is weak, and the medium - long - term valuation is high. Technically, the short - term trend is weak. [8][9] - L: In the short term, the supply pressure increases, and the demand is in the off - season. In the medium - long term, new devices are planned to be put into production, and the expectation is weak. [11] - PP: In the short term, the market is in a weak stalemate. In the medium - long term, the supply is under pressure, the domestic demand is in the off - season, and the export profit is negative. [14] - PVC: The spot supply - demand fundamentals are poor, and the new devices are planned to be put into production in the future. The supply side is under pressure. [17] - PX: The supply - demand is expected to increase, the inventory is being depleted but still high overall. The fundamentals are tight, and it fluctuates with the cost recently. [19] - PTA: The supply pressure is expected to increase, the downstream demand is expected to weaken, the inventory is being depleted, and the fundamentals are tight but the expectation is loose. [22] - Ethylene glycol: The device load increases, the arrival is expected to rebound, the demand is expected to weaken, and the supply - demand is expected to be loose. [25] - Glass: The domestic macro data improves, but the medium - term demand shrinkage has not been alleviated, and the rebound is limited. The valuation is low. [28] - Soda ash: The supply is marginally improved, the rigid demand is insufficient, the inventory is accumulating, and the cost center moves down in the medium - long term. [31] - Caustic soda: The supply is at a high level, the demand support is insufficient, and there is an expectation of inventory depletion during the maintenance period. [34] - Methanol: The domestic device starts at a high load, the arrival in July may be less than expected, the demand feedback is negative, and the social inventory accumulates slightly. [36] - Urea: The short - term supply pressure is large, the domestic demand is weak, but the fertilizer export growth is fast. [2] - Asphalt: The cost side weakens, the supply increases, the inventory accumulates, and the demand is affected by the weather. [2] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices fluctuated within a range, with WTI up 0.52%, Brent up 0.55%, and SC up 0.18%. [3] - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is that the oil price returns to fundamental pricing, and OPEC+ may continue to increase production in August. On the supply side, Saudi Arabia's exports and Guyana's production increase. On the demand side, the global crude oil demand growth rate decreases. In terms of inventory, the US commercial crude oil inventory decreases, and the strategic reserve increases. [4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - long term, the supply is excessive, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short term, it is weakly volatile. Lightly short and buy call options for protection. SC focuses on [490 - 505]. [5] LPG - **Market Review**: On July 1, the PG main contract closed at 4,203 yuan/ton, down 0.76% month - on - month. [7] - **Basic Logic**: After the geopolitical premium of oil prices is squeezed out, the cost side is weak. The downstream chemical demand recovers, and the inventory is neutral to bearish. [8] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - long term, the valuation is high. Technically, the short - term trend is weak. Lightly short or buy put options. PG focuses on [4130 - 4250]. [9] L - **Market Review**: The prices of futures contracts such as L01, L05, and L09 all declined slightly, and the main contract position decreased. [11] - **Basic Logic**: In the short term, the supply pressure increases, and the demand is in the off - season. In the medium - long term, new devices are planned to be put into production. [11] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. L focuses on [7150 - 7350]. [11] PP - **Market Review**: The prices of futures contracts such as PP01, PP05, and PP09 all declined slightly, and the main contract position decreased. [14] - **Basic Logic**: In the short term, the market is in a weak stalemate. In the medium - long term, the supply is under pressure, the domestic demand is in the off - season, and the export profit is negative. [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. PP focuses on [6950 - 7150]. [14] PVC - **Market Review**: The PVC futures price fluctuates, and the spot supply - demand fundamentals are poor. [17] - **Basic Logic**: The production enterprise maintenance scale fluctuates little, the downstream demand is in the off - season, and the new devices are planned to be put into production in the future. [17] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies. V focuses on [4750 - 4950]. [17] PX - **Market Review**: The PX futures and spot prices fluctuate, and the basis converges. [18] - **Basic Logic**: The PX profit improves, the domestic and foreign device loads are high, the demand is expected to improve, and the inventory is being depleted. [19] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Cautiously go long at low levels. PX focuses on [6680 - 6850]. [20] PTA - **Market Review**: The PTA futures and spot prices fluctuate, and the basis weakens. [21] - **Basic Logic**: The PTA device maintenance exceeds the restart, the demand is expected to weaken, the inventory is being depleted, and the processing fee is high. [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies and expand the TA - PR spread. TA focuses on [4710 - 4820]. [23] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The EG futures and spot prices decline, and the basis strengthens. [24] - **Basic Logic**: The device load increases, the arrival is expected to rebound, the demand is expected to weaken, and the inventory is being depleted. [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Do not chase long in the long term, and focus on shorting opportunities at high levels. EG focuses on [4230 - 4310]. [26] Glass - **Market Review**: The spot price increases, the futures price falls, the basis expands, and the warehouse receipts decrease. [28] - **Basic Logic**: The domestic macro policy boosts, the supply is at a low level with small fluctuations, the cost moves down, and the valuation is low. [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The spot price increases, and it needs to approach the 5 - day moving average. FG focuses on [980 - 1010]. [28] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The heavy - soda spot price decreases, the futures price falls, the main contract basis narrows, and the warehouse receipts decrease. [30] - **Basic Logic**: The supply decreases slightly, the rigid demand is insufficient, the inventory accumulates, and the cost center moves down in the medium - long term. [31] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies. SA focuses on [1150 - 1180]. [31] Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The caustic soda spot price decreases, the futures price rebounds weakly at a low level, the basis weakens, and the warehouse receipts remain unchanged. [33] - **Basic Logic**: The supply is at a high level, the demand support is insufficient, and there is an expectation of inventory depletion during the maintenance period. [34] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The liquid caustic soda and liquid chlorine prices fall, and the futures price rebounds within a range. SH focuses on [2330 - 2380]. [2] Methanol - **Market Review**: On June 27, the methanol spot price in East China increased, the main contract futures price decreased, the basis weakened, and the warehouse receipts increased. [35] - **Basic Logic**: The domestic device starts at a high load, the arrival in July may be less than expected, the demand feedback is negative, and the social inventory accumulates slightly. [36] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on shorting opportunities for the 09 contract and go long on the 01 contract. MA focuses on [2360 - 2400]. [36] Urea - **Basic Logic**: The short - term supply pressure is large, the domestic demand is weak, but the fertilizer export growth is fast. [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rallies. UR focuses on [1690 - 1730]. [2] Asphalt - **Basic Logic**: The cost side weakens, the supply increases, the inventory accumulates, and the demand is affected by the weather. [2] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly short. BU focuses on [3500 - 3600]. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Bearish consolidation. Geopolitical risk premium has been squeezed out, and oil prices have returned to fundamental pricing. OPEC+ is increasing production, and although it's the consumption peak season, increasing production will put downward pressure on prices. Strategy: Lightly short and buy call options for protection [1][6]. - **LPG**: Weak. Saudi Arabia has lowered the CP contract price, and cost reduction due to falling oil prices, although downstream chemical demand is rising and inventory is decreasing. Strategy: Lightly short [1][9]. - **L**: Bearish consolidation. Device restarts are increasing, with production expected to rise this week. New device launches are planned in the medium - long term, and demand is in the off - season. Strategy: Hold short positions [1][11]. - **PP**: Bearish consolidation. Downstream orders are weak, cost support is weakening, and new capacity is planned in the third quarter. Strategy: Hold short positions [1][14]. - **PVC**: Bearish consolidation. Calcium carbide prices are rising, production is expected to decline, and new device launches are planned in the long term. Strategy: Short on rebounds, pay attention to pressure at integer levels [1][17]. - **PX**: Bullish. PX device loads are high, demand is expected to increase, and inventory is decreasing. Strategy: Look for opportunities to go long on dips [1][19]. - **PTA/PR**: Short - term bullish. Supply pressure is expected to increase, but inventory is decreasing. Strategy: Look for opportunities to go short on highs and widen the TA - PR spread [1][22]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Bearish. Device loads are increasing, demand is expected to weaken, and inventory reduction is expected to narrow. Strategy: Do not chase long positions in the long - term, look for shorting opportunities [1][25]. - **Glass**: Under pressure and falling back. Market risk appetite has recovered, but medium - term demand shrinkage has not been alleviated, and cost has decreased. Strategy: Be cautious with long positions [3][28]. - **Soda Ash**: Short on rebounds. Supply is slightly reduced, but demand is insufficient, and inventory is accumulating. Strategy: Short on rebounds [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: Back to weakness. Supply is high, demand is weak, and cost support is shifting down. Strategy: Pay attention to the 2310 pressure level [3]. - **Methanol**: Short on rebounds. Supply is increasing, demand feedback is negative, and inventory is slightly accumulating. Strategy: Look for shorting opportunities in the 09 contract and long opportunities in the 01 contract [3][36]. - **Urea**: Short on rebounds. Supply pressure remains high, although demand from exports is growing. Strategy: Look for shorting opportunities [3]. - **Asphalt**: Weak. Cost reduction due to falling oil prices, supply is increasing, and inventory is accumulating. Strategy: Lightly short [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices were weakly volatile. WTI fell 0.63%, Brent fell 0.09%, and SC fell 1.21% [5]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risk has eased, and OPEC+ may increase production in August. Supply from Guyana is increasing, while global demand growth has slightly decreased. US crude inventory decreased last week [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - long term, supply is in excess, and the price range is expected to be $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short term, it is weakly volatile. Strategy: Lightly short and buy call options for protection. SC focus range: [490 - 510] [6]. LPG - **Market Review**: On June 30, the PG main contract closed at 4235 yuan/ton, down 0.49%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China changed slightly [7]. - **Basic Logic**: Falling oil prices and Saudi Arabia's price cut have put pressure on LPG. PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil开工 rates are rising, but PDH device profit has decreased [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - long term, the upstream oil supply is in excess, and LPG is over - valued. Technically, it is weak. Strategy: Lightly short or buy put options. PG focus range: [4130 - 4250] [9]. L - **Market Review**: Price and position data of different contracts showed slight fluctuations [11]. - **Basic Logic**: Cost support is weakening, supply is expected to increase due to device restarts, and demand is in the off - season. New devices are planned in July - August [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds. Risk: Monitor oil and coal prices and new capacity launches. Focus range: [7150 - 7350] [11][12]. PP - **Market Review**: Prices of different contracts and spot markets declined slightly [14]. - **Basic Logic**: Demand is weak, cost support is weakening, and new capacity is planned in the third quarter. Export profit is negative [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds. Risk: Monitor oil and coal prices and new capacity launches. Focus range: [7000 - 7150] [14][15]. PVC - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned [17]. - **Basic Logic**: Calcium carbide prices are rising, production is expected to decline, and new devices are planned in the long term. The market is in the off - season, and exports are still supported [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short on rebounds, pay attention to integer - level pressure. Short - term participation. Risk: Macro - systematic risk. Focus range: [4800 - 5000] [17]. PX - **Market Review**: On June 27, the spot price in East China was 7145 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract closed at 6752 yuan/ton [18]. - **Basic Logic**: PX device loads are high, demand is expected to increase due to PTA device restarts and new capacity launches, and inventory is decreasing. PXN and basis are high [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus range: [6780 - 6930] [20]. PTA - **Market Review**: On June 27, the spot price in East China was 5025 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract closed at 4778 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase due to device restarts and new capacity launches, while demand from the downstream polyester and terminal weaving industries is weakening. Inventory is decreasing [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go short on highs and widen the TA - PR spread. Focus range: [4790 - 4880] [22][23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On June 27, the spot price in East China was 4340 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract closed at 4271 yuan/ton [24]. - **Basic Logic**: Device loads are increasing, demand is expected to weaken, and inventory reduction is expected to narrow. Geopolitical risks still exist [25]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Do not chase long positions in the long - term, look for shorting opportunities. Focus range: [4230 - 4300] [26]. Glass - **Market Review**: Spot prices have been lowered, and the basis has widened [28]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risks have decreased, and domestic policies have boosted market sentiment. Supply is at a low level, and it is difficult to trigger large - scale cold repairs. The valuation is low, but the short - term fundamentals are weak [28]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus range: [1010 - 1030], with weak support at the 5 - day moving average [28]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Heavy - alkali spot prices have been lowered, and the main contract basis has widened [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply has slightly decreased, but demand is insufficient, and inventory is accumulating. The price is sensitive to policies and costs [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus range: [1185 - 1220], rebound within the range [31]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: Spot prices have been lowered, and the basis has weakened [33]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply is high, demand from the main downstream (alumina) is weakening, and cost support is shifting down. There is an inventory reduction expectation during the maintenance season [34]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the 2310 pressure level [3]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On June 27, the spot price in East China was 2638 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract closed at 2393 yuan/ton. The basis is high [35]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic coal - based methanol production is increasing, overseas device loads are low, and 7 - month arrivals may be lower than expected. Demand feedback is negative, but traditional demand is rising. Inventory is slightly accumulating [36]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for shorting opportunities in the 09 contract and long opportunities in the 01 contract. Focus range: [2360 - 2420] [36][37]. Urea - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned [3]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure remains high, although fertilizer exports are growing. Cost support still exists [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for shorting opportunities. Focus range: [1700 - 1740] [3]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: Not specifically mentioned [3]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical tensions have eased, oil prices have fallen, supply is increasing, and inventory is accumulating [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly short. Focus range: [3500 - 3600] [3].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that oil prices need to rise by 50% or more to pose a significant threat to overall inflation, which would require Brent crude prices to exceed $100 per barrel [1] - The relationship between oil prices and inflation indicates that a 10% increase in oil prices only contributes approximately 0.1% to overall inflation [1] - Despite ongoing Middle Eastern conflicts disrupting financial markets, the actual impact may be less than investors expect, as market reactions remain calm [1][2] Group 2 - Current global crude oil supply is ample, with prices around $70 per barrel, which is historically low [2] - Oil prices have already incorporated about a 20% "geopolitical risk premium," reflecting market calculations of potential conflict escalation [2] - The potential response from Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz is crucial, but a complete blockade of this international waterway is impractical [2] Group 3 - Since June 13, Brent crude prices have risen by approximately 10%, which could lead to energy inflation slightly above 5% for the G7 countries over the next year [3] - This increase in energy prices is not expected to trigger broader inflationary pressures [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that the geopolitical risk premium associated with gold has dissipated, leading to a potential breakout in market trends [1] Group 2 - The analysis is being conducted by a researcher named Gao Yang, who is live-streaming the insights on the current gold market [1]

Group 1 - The current spot gold price is around $3340 per ounce, showing a slight increase of 0.27% from the previous trading day, supported by a weakening US dollar index which hit a four-year low at 97.449 [1][2] - The market is focused on two main variables: the impact of the latest developments in Iran nuclear negotiations on geopolitical risk premiums, and the upcoming US May PCE inflation data on June 27, which may reshape Federal Reserve policy expectations [1][3] Group 2 - The decline of the US dollar index is driven by multiple factors, including Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's emphasis on waiting for the impact of tariffs on inflation before making interest rate decisions, which has led to a market perception of a potential rate cut this year [3] - The 10-year US Treasury yield has slightly decreased to 4.287%, reflecting growing concerns about economic slowdown, further diminishing the dollar's interest rate advantage [3] - The negative correlation between the dollar index and gold prices is particularly evident in the current environment, with gold's relative value increasing for investors holding currencies like the euro and pound [3] Group 3 - The uncertainty surrounding the Iran nuclear negotiations remains a significant variable in gold pricing, with skepticism about the sustainability of the ceasefire agreement announced by Trump [5][6] - The complexity of geopolitical risks is highlighted by the potential for both reduced safe-haven demand for gold due to the ceasefire and the retention of Iran's technical capabilities, which could lead to retaliatory actions [6] Group 4 - The upcoming US May PCE data is expected to show a decrease in core PCE year-on-year from 2.8% in April to 2.6%, potentially the lowest level since March 2021 [7] - If the PCE data meets or falls below expectations, it may strengthen market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, further weakening the dollar and boosting gold prices [7] Group 5 - From a technical perspective, gold has shown a downward trend for seven consecutive weeks, with a critical resistance level at $3355; failure to break this level may lead to further declines towards the $3300 support level [8] - Conversely, if geopolitical risks resurface or the PCE data is weak, gold prices could rebound above $3400 [8] Group 6 - Overall, while the weakening dollar provides short-term support for gold, geopolitical uncertainties and potential impacts from the PCE data limit the upside potential for gold prices [10]

品种 核心观点 主要逻辑及价格区间 原油 盘整 油价重回基本面定价，消费旺季 VS 供给增加，油价盘整。本周一周二油 价大幅下跌，地缘风险溢价被挤出，油价重回基本面定价。OPEC+从 4 月 份开始正式增产，当前产能处于增产初期，加上当前处于消费旺季，油价 下方有一定支撑，但随着增产量逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大。策略：轻 仓试空并购买看涨期权保护。SC【490-520】 LPG 反弹偏空 地缘缓和，成本端大幅下降，液化气承压。特朗普宣布，以色列和伊朗已 同意全面停火，成本端油价大幅回落；下游化工需求继续回升，PDH、烷 基化、MTBE 开工率上升；库存端利好，港口库存连续下降。策略：成本 端利空，可轻仓试空。PG【4250-4350】 L 空头盘整 装置大量重启，停车比例降至 13%，美伊冲突升级，盘面波动加剧。淡季 继续补库意愿不足，华北基差为 19（环比+71）。本周检修力度增加，预 计产量继续下降。需求淡季，下游补库力度放缓，关注后续库存去化力度。 策略：反弹偏空。L【7200-7400】 PP 空头盘整 停车比例上升，下游刚需采购，综合利润修复。华东基差为 116（环比-42）。 近期检修力度加剧，预 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the oil market is returning to fundamentals, with a significant decrease in US crude oil inventories, highlighting supply-side value and boosting oil soft power [1][3] - As of the last trading session, West Texas Intermediate crude oil for August delivery settled at $64.92 per barrel, up $0.55, a rise of 0.85%, while Brent crude oil for August delivery settled at $67.68 per barrel, up $0.54, a rise of 0.80% [1] - The US Energy Information Administration reported a decrease of 5.8 million barrels in crude oil inventories, far exceeding the market expectation of 1.3 million barrels, marking the fifth consecutive week of decline [1][3] Group 2 - The geopolitical risk premium is diminishing, with President Trump stating that tensions in the Middle East have "ended" and that the US will hold talks with Iran while maintaining pressure on Iranian oil revenues [1][3][4] - The OPEC alliance is considering increasing production again in August, with Russia expressing willingness to support this if deemed necessary, although there are internal disagreements among member countries regarding production strategies [2][4] - The current market is characterized by a "pulse rebound" in oil soft power, but overall, it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend due to geopolitical uncertainties and OPEC's production decisions [2][4] Group 3 - The decline in inventories emphasizes the scarcity of supply, reinforcing the physical supply-demand tension in the oil market and shifting focus from geopolitical conflicts to domestic fundamentals in the US [3] - The dynamic interplay of macroeconomic disturbances, such as the expiration of tariff exemptions and potential new trade tensions, is likely to suppress oil demand expectations [4] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations may further limit the rebound potential of oil prices, creating additional pressure alongside the diminishing geopolitical premium [4]

Core Viewpoint - The methanol market is experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions, particularly related to Iran, which has led to concerns about supply disruptions. However, recent developments indicate a potential easing of these tensions, which may impact supply expectations and pricing dynamics in the near term [1][5][8]. Supply Dynamics - Methanol prices have recently corrected after a spike driven by fears of supply chain disruptions in Iran due to escalating conflicts. The price settled at 2391 yuan/ton, down 0.95% [1]. - As of June 19, domestic methanol production facilities operated at 77.44% capacity, a 2.30 percentage point increase from the previous period and a 6.61 percentage point increase year-on-year. High profits from coal-to-methanol production are encouraging operational activity [1]. - Reports indicate that Iran's methanol production facilities may restart operations following a proposed ceasefire agreement, which could significantly alter supply expectations for July imports to China [1][4]. Demand Factors - The average operating rate of domestic coal-to-olefins (MTO) facilities is at 85.53%, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.32 percentage points. Traditional downstream sectors like formaldehyde and acetic acid are entering a seasonal downturn, leading to a focus on essential procurement [2]. - The methanol port inventory in China reached 670,500 tons as of June 25, an increase of 84,100 tons from the previous period, indicating a significant accumulation of stock [2]. Market Outlook - According to various institutions, the methanol market is expected to experience high volatility, with prices likely to oscillate within a high range due to the interplay of geopolitical factors and domestic supply-demand dynamics. Key focus areas include the pace of Iranian facility restarts and the actual growth in import volumes [4][5][6]. - The market sentiment is influenced by the easing of geopolitical risks, which has led to a correction in energy prices and a potential weakening of domestic methanol futures [5][6]. - The overall market logic is primarily driven by macroeconomic conditions, with ongoing uncertainties in international relations affecting trading strategies [7][8].

油脂：地缘风险溢价蒸发 油脂大幅回落 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0018581 表 1：油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | | | 日 | 数 据 追 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 車位 | 今日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期高 | DCE豆油主力 | 6月24日 | 元/呼 | 7950.00 | 8126.00 | -176.00 | -2.17% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 6月24日 | 元/吨 | 8326.00 | 8520.00 | -194.00 | -2.28% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | 6月24日 | 元/吨 | 9572.00 | 9721.00 | -149.00 | -1.53% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 6月23日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1046.50 | 1060.50 | -14.00 | -1.32% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 6月23日 | 美分/磅 ...