Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - SH2509 rose 0.77% to close at 2358 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week, Jincheng Chemical, Dongying Huatai, and Ordos plants were shut down for maintenance, while Huojiagou, Haohua Yuhang, and Shandong Aluminum plants restarted, with the caustic soda capacity utilization rate increasing by 1.3% to 82.5%. On the demand side, last week, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.07% to 80.67%; the viscose staple fiber operating rate decreased by 2.23% to 78.57%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate decreased by 0.42% to 60.31%. In terms of inventory, last week, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 6.51% to 390,400 tons, which is at a moderately high level in the same period. This week, three plants in the Northwest and East China are planned to shut down, and three plants in North China are planned to restart, with the capacity utilization rate expected to rise slightly. There are many caustic soda production plants from June to July, increasing the industry supply pressure in the medium and long term. The alumina price and profit have declined slightly, the growth of the operating rate has stagnated, and the delivery volume of the main suppliers in Shandong has decreased; the non-aluminum off-season has weak rigid demand and resistance to high prices. With the increase in future supply, under the background of limited demand, there is still significant pressure on the caustic soda spot market. In the futures market, since the basis has converged, there is still a lack of positive fundamentals, and the sustainability of the rebound of the 09 contract is questionable. However, since it is close to the cost below 2200, the downward space of the futures price is also limited. In the short term, SH2509 is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the daily K-line should pay attention to the support around 2240 and the pressure around 2400 [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The main closing price of caustic soda was 2358 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan; the futures trading volume was 695,140 lots, up 80,795 lots; the contract closing price of caustic soda for January was 2354 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the contract closing price of caustic soda for May was 2410 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan; the net position of the top 20 futures traders was -10,586 lots, up 14,324 lots; the futures open interest was 278,829 lots, up 9592 lots [3] 现货市场 - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 770 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price in Jiangsu was 900 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2406.25 yuan/ton, down 31.25 yuan; the basis of caustic soda was 48 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price in the Northwest was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of steam coal was 635 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 0 yuan/ton, down 50.5 yuan; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was -225 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [3] Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,020 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 3080 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Industry News - From June 20th to 26th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more was 82.5%, a month-on-month increase of 1.3%. As of June 26th, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more nationwide was 390,400 tons (wet tons), a month-on-month increase of 6.51% and a year-on-year increase of 10.40% [3]

能源化工日报 2025-07-01 原油 能源化工组 2025/7/1 原油早评 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收跌 0.10 美元，跌幅 0.15%，报 64.97 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收涨 0.32 美元，涨幅 0.48%，报 67.63 美元；INE 主力原油期货收跌 2.40 元，跌幅 0.48%， 报 498.3 元。 数据方面：中国原油周度数据出炉，原油到港库存去库 0.65 百万桶至 208.07 百万桶，环比 去库 0.31%；汽油商业库存累库 0.68 百万桶至 85.97 百万桶，环比累库 0.79%；柴油商业库 存累库 0.10 百万桶至 98.68 百万桶，环比累库 0.10%；总成品油商业库存累库 0.78 百万桶 至 184.65 百万桶，环比累库 0.42%。 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 我们认为当前地缘风险已经逐步释放，油价已经极度偏离宏观与基本面指引。伊朗已展现出缓 解状态，但油价单日跌幅过大，我们认为当前油价已经来到合理区间，空单仍可持有但已不宜 追空。 ...

Economic Growth and Price Trends - China's GDP growth is expected to remain above 5% for three consecutive quarters, but price levels continue to weaken[1] - CPI has shown negative growth for three consecutive months, while PPI has dropped to -3.3%[1] - In contrast to 2015, when growth and prices were negatively correlated, the current situation shows high growth with persistent price weakness[1] Historical Comparison - In 2015, GDP growth slowed from 7.1% in the first half to 6.9% by Q4, with PPI declining by 5.9% in Q4, the lowest since 2010[1] - Policy easing began in late 2014, with significant measures taken in 2015, leading to a recovery in both growth and prices by mid-2017[1] Current Economic State - The current economic state is characterized as atypical, with high growth not translating into price increases, indicating a potential trend of prolonged price weakness[1] - Marginal improvements in domestic prices are noted, with core CPI showing signs of recovery since Q4 of the previous year[1] Risk Factors - Key risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and potential global recession impacts[2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Reports LLDPE and PP - PP has short - term maintenance returns and new production is progressing smoothly, with output at a year - on - year high. After the decline of the PE market, the basis strengthens, and arbitrageurs have good sales. In June, imports decreased significantly, with a slight increase expected in July. Demand is suppressed by the off - season. The strategy is that PE is expected to be range - bound, and PP is bearish on a single - side basis [36]. Methanol - The market's expectation of methanol imports has increased due to the easing of the Iranian situation, and the premium caused by geopolitical factors has been reversed. Currently, port arrivals are still low, inventory is at a low level, and the port basis is strong. Attention should be paid to the actual shipments after the restart of Iranian plants. The domestic supply is tight due to long - term maintenance at Henan Dahua and planned maintenance in Guanzhong. Demand is in the seasonal off - season. Short - term outlook is to wait and see [38]. Benzene and Styrene - The price of pure benzene continues to be weak. The overnight price of raw materials has declined, and some planned benzene - ethylene plant restarts have been suspended due to high ethylene prices. At the same time, the high - load operation of ethylene in major refineries has led to a significant increase in pure benzene supply, putting pressure on its price. In the benzene - ethylene market in East China, the market is generally stable. As the end - of - month paper - cargo delivery approaches, the basis price is relatively strong, with market transactions mainly for exchange, and overall high - price trading is limited. Downstream buyers are hesitant at high prices. In the medium term, tariffs and national subsidies may not further stimulate terminal demand. High profits in benzene - ethylene may stimulate production, and there is still pressure on the supply - demand margin, with an expected valuation repair relying on a decline in benzene - ethylene. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for benzene - ethylene resonating with raw materials [43]. Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices remained range - bound, as macro and fundamental factors counteracted each other. Trump reaffirmed the "maximum pressure" policy on Iran, including restricting its oil export revenue, but hinted that China could continue to buy Iranian oil and planned to talk with Iran next week. The cease - fire between Israel and Iran has alleviated concerns about supply disruptions in the Middle East, and oil prices have recovered from the sharp decline at the beginning of the week. Fundamentally, inventories have declined for the fifth consecutive week, reaching an 11 - year seasonal low, and the inventory at the Cushing storage center has also declined for three consecutive weeks to the lowest level since February, supporting the market. The market focus is expected to shift to the OPEC+ meeting on July 6. Currently, Russia has stated that it will support production increases if the alliance deems it necessary. If OPEC maintains high - speed production increases, the fundamental surplus in the third quarter may continue to pressure the market, causing the center of gravity to fall. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, with the support for WTI at [63, 64], the upper - end pressure for Brent at [64, 65], and the pressure level for SC at [490, 500]. Option traders can look for opportunities as volatility narrows [47]. Urea - Short - term suggestions focus on three aspects: export - related developments, including market expectations before the Indian tender and actual port - collection volumes; the implementation of supply - side maintenance, especially whether major factories such as Shandong Mingshengda and Henan Jinkai will stop production as scheduled; and marginal changes in demand, such as weather factors and industrial procurement rhythms. The strategy is to consider going long on dips, as the rebound logic driven by news has not been fully realized, and export policy optimization and the Indian tender may continue to provide support. However, strict stop - losses should be set to prevent the risk of unmet expectations [77]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX: Near - term PX plants are under maintenance, and downstream PTA and polyester loads are high in the short term, providing support for PX at low levels. However, weak terminal demand and limited oil - price support suppress PX. It is expected to be range - bound in the short term. The PX09 contract is expected to oscillate between 6500 - 6900, and single - side trading is on hold. - PTA: Despite plant maintenance at Fuhai Chuang and Hengli, new production capacity and weak downstream demand and terminal load lead to a weakening supply - demand outlook. PTA has limited self - driving force and will follow the cost side. TA is expected to oscillate between 4600 - 4900 in the short term, with single - side trading on hold and a rolling reverse - spread operation for TA9 - 1. - Ethylene Glycol: Iranian ethylene - glycol plants are restarting, and shipments are normal. The restart of domestic plants and weak demand expectations mean that supply - demand cannot drive price increases. With geopolitical factors cooling and oil prices weakening, ethylene glycol is expected to decline. The strategy is to hold short - term call - option sellers for EG2509 - C - 4450. - Short - fiber: The current supply - demand is weak. Due to planned production cuts in July and low inventory at short - fiber factories, the absolute price is slightly more supported than raw materials, and the processing margin on the futures market has recovered. The absolute price will follow raw materials. The strategy is the same as PTA for single - side trading, and to expand the processing margin at low levels, while paying attention to the implementation of production cuts. - Bottle - grade polyester: June is the peak season for soft - drink consumption. Some bottle - grade polyester plants have cut production. There is an expectation of supply - demand improvement, and the processing margin is bottoming out. The absolute price will follow the cost side. The strategy is the same as PTA for single - side trading, and to look for opportunities to expand the processing margin when it reaches the lower end of the 350 - 600 yuan/ton range [80]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic Soda: Some plants have restarted, and current good profits may stimulate production. Downstream non - aluminum demand is weak in the off - season, and the continuous reduction of alumina purchase prices is negative for the spot market. However, due to the recovery of alumina profits and increased production, overall demand is still supported. Weekly alkali - plant inventory has decreased, and the futures is at a discount to the spot. In the short term, there is limited downward momentum for the caustic - soda futures, but it may fluctuate. In the third quarter, new production capacity is expected to be put into operation, and alumina profits may weaken, providing no positive drive for caustic soda. Considering the high - profit valuation of caustic soda, its upside is limited. The short - term strategy is to wait and see, and look for short - selling opportunities in the medium term. - PVC: The short - term contradiction is not intensifying. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction is prominent due to the decline in the domestic real - estate sector, which drags down terminal demand, and there is no obvious negative feedback or clearance in the PVC industry. Currently, PVC maintenance is decreasing, and new production is expected in June - July, increasing supply pressure. Domestic demand is weak in the off - season, and exports are maintained after the extension of BIS. The social inventory has slightly increased, and further drivers need to be verified. The short - term strategy is to wait for rebounds and new drivers to look for short - selling opportunities [89]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Changes**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 closing prices increased, with changes ranging from 0.34% to 0.40%. L2509 - 2601 increased by 8.51%, while PP2509 - 2601 decreased by 5.17%. Spot prices of East - China PP and North - China LLDPE decreased slightly, and the basis of North - China plastics and East - China PP changed significantly [36]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE device operating rate decreased by 2.86%, and downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 1.42%. PE enterprise inventory decreased by 10.25%, and social inventory decreased by 16.91%. PP device operating rate increased by 1.2%, powder - material operating rate decreased by 1.3%, and downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 1.2%. PP enterprise inventory decreased by 3.72%, and trader inventory decreased by 9.21% [36]. Methanol - **Prices and Changes**: MA2601 and MA2509 closing prices increased, with MA2509 rising 1.09%. MA91 spread increased by 38.46%, and the Taicang basis increased by 37.01%. Spot prices in different regions changed, with the port - to - inland price difference increasing [38]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 7.02%, port inventory increased by 14.34%, and social inventory increased by 6.11%. Domestic upstream operating rate increased by 0.85%, overseas upstream decreased by 22.67%, northwest enterprise sales - to - production ratio decreased by 8.94%, downstream MTO device operating rate decreased by 6.84%, formaldehyde decreased by 0.38%, and fatty acid increased by 4.50% [38]. Benzene and Styrene - **Raw - material Prices**: Brent crude oil was stable, CFR Japan naphtha decreased by 1.7%, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene was unchanged, CFR Korea and China pure benzene decreased by 1.4% and 1.5% respectively. The pure - benzene - to - naphtha spread decreased slightly, and the ethylene - to - naphtha spread increased by 3.7% [40]. - **Benzene and Styrene Prices**: The East - China spot price of benzene - ethylene increased by 1.2%, EB2507 and EB2508 decreased by 1.4% and 1.0% respectively. The basis increased by 44.2%, and the month - spread decreased by 29.6% [41]. - **Industry Chain开工率 and Profits**: Domestic and Asian pure - benzene comprehensive operating rates changed by 1.2% and - 2.3% respectively. Benzene - ethylene operating rate increased by 7.0%, PS by 0.7%, EPS decreased by 3.3%, and ABS decreased by 0.2%. Benzene - ethylene integrated profit decreased by 76.8%, non - integrated profit increased by 13.1%, PS profit decreased by 39.5%, EPS increased by 42.9%, and ABS decreased by 105.3%. Port inventories of pure benzene and benzene - ethylene changed by 2.7% and - 15.3% respectively [43]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased slightly, while SC decreased by 1.46%. Brent M1 - M3, SC M1 - M3 decreased, and WTI M1 - M3 increased. Brent - WTI and SC - Brent spreads decreased, and EFS increased [47]. - **Refined - product Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil prices increased, with changes ranging from 0.46% to 1.39%. RBOB M1 - M3 and ULSD M1 - M3 increased, and Gasoil M1 - M3 was unchanged [47]. - **Refined - product Crack Spreads**: Crack spreads of gasoline and diesel in the US, Europe, and Singapore increased to varying degrees [47]. Urea - **Prices and Changes**: Futures contract prices decreased slightly, and the basis in different regions changed significantly. Spot prices in most regions increased slightly, and the cross - regional spread changed [69][73][74]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic daily urea production decreased by 1.95%, coal - based production decreased by 2.49%, and gas - based production was unchanged. Weekly production decreased by 2.83%, and plant - maintenance losses increased by 29.60%. Factory inventory decreased by 3.53%, and port inventory increased by 29.15%. Production - enterprise order days decreased by 1.75% [77]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent and WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene, and CFR China PX prices changed, with CFR Japan naphtha decreasing by 1.7% and CFR China PX increasing by 0.4% [80]. - **Downstream Product Prices and Cash Flows**: Prices of POY, FDY, DTY, polyester chips, and other products decreased slightly, and cash flows and processing margins also changed to varying degrees [80]. - **开工率 and Inventory**: Asian and Chinese PX operating rates decreased slightly, PTA operating rate decreased by 3.5%, MEG comprehensive operating rate increased by 4.1%, and polyester comprehensive operating rate increased by 1.2%. MEG port inventory increased by 1.0%, and the expected arrival decreased by 38.0% [80]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Prices and Changes**: Prices of Shandong 32% and 50% caustic soda were unchanged, as were East - China PVC prices. SH2509 and SH2601 increased, while SH basis decreased by 20.2%. V2509 and V2601 changed slightly, and the V basis decreased by 0.8% [85]. - **开工率 and Profits**: Caustic - soda industry operating rate increased by 0.2%, PVC total operating rate decreased by 0.1%. Outer - sourced calcium - carbide PVC profit decreased by 5.8%, and Northwest integrated profit increased by 6.2% [87]. - **下游开工率 and Inventory**: Alumina, viscose - staple fiber, and printing - and - dyeing industry operating rates changed slightly. PVC downstream product operating rates decreased, and caustic - soda and PVC inventories changed to varying degrees [88][89].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **LLDPE & PP**: PE is expected to fluctuate, while PP is expected to trend downward in the short - term. PP's short - term production is at a high level due to the return of maintenance and smooth new production. PE's basis strengthens after the decline in the futures price, and the import volume in June decreased significantly with a slight increase expected in July. Both are affected by the off - season in demand [2]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand balance of styrene may gradually weaken. It is expected to continue to decline in the short - term due to increased supply, weak downstream demand, and geopolitical factors. It should be treated bearishly [7]. - **Urea**: In the short - term, attention should be paid to export progress, supply - side maintenance, and demand - side changes. It is advisable to consider going long at low prices based on the rebound logic driven by news, but strict stop - losses are required [11]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: For caustic soda, it is recommended to wait and see as it may face further inventory pressure after the return of maintenance devices. For PVC, it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term and maintain a medium - term short - selling strategy due to prominent supply - demand contradictions [39]. - **Methanol**: The market is affected by the easing of the Iranian situation, with a decline in the futures price and a strengthening basis. Attention should be paid to the actual shipping after the restart of Iranian devices. The inland supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season [49]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: PX, PTA, and other products are expected to fluctuate. For example, PX is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short - term [52]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term, lacking a strong trend. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term, and capture opportunities in option trading when volatility narrows [56]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs LLDPE & PP - **Price Changes**: L2601, L2509, PP2509 prices increased slightly, while PP2601 decreased slightly. The basis and spreads of some varieties also changed [2]. - **Inventory &开工率**: PE enterprise and social inventories decreased, and the device and downstream weighted开工率 decreased slightly. PP enterprise and trader inventories decreased, the device开工率 increased, and the downstream weighted开工率 decreased slightly [2]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: The prices of styrene's upstream raw materials, spot, futures, and overseas quotes changed to varying degrees. The import profit decreased significantly [4][5][6]. - **开工率 & Profit**: The开工率 of domestic and Asian pure benzene, styrene, and some downstream products changed. The integrated profit of styrene decreased significantly, while the non - integrated profit increased [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of pure benzene ports, styrene ports, and some downstream products changed [7]. Urea - **Price Changes**: The futures prices of urea contracts increased, and the spreads between contracts changed. The prices of upstream raw materials and spot in different regions also changed [11]. - **Position & Volume**: The long and short positions of the top 20 traders changed, and the trading volume increased [11]. - **Supply & Demand**: The daily and weekly production of urea, the开工率 of production enterprises, and the inventory of urea all changed. The inventory of some enterprises decreased [11]. PVC & Caustic Soda - **Price Changes**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda's futures and spot changed slightly. The export profit of caustic soda increased, while that of PVC decreased [35][36]. - **Supply**: The开工率 of the chlor - alkali industry and the profit of different production methods changed [37]. - **Demand**: The开工率 of caustic soda's downstream industries and PVC's downstream products changed [38][39]. Methanol - **Price Changes**: The futures prices of methanol contracts increased, and the basis and regional spreads changed [49]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise, social, and port inventories of methanol changed [49]. - **开工率**: The upstream and downstream开工率 of methanol changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [49]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Price Changes**: The prices of upstream raw materials, polyester products, and their futures and cash flows changed. The spreads and processing fees of some products also changed [52]. - **开工率**: The开工率 of different links in the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA, MEG, and downstream products, changed [52]. Crude Oil - **Price Changes**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil, as well as the prices and spreads of refined oil products, changed [56]. - **裂解价差**: The cracking spreads of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in different regions changed [56]. - **Market Drivers**: Oil prices are driven by factors such as inventory changes, Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, and geopolitical factors. The market is in a multi - empty stalemate [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Lithium Carbonate - The recent market sentiment is stable, and the market is mainly in a state of shock. However, there is a lack of actual positive news, and the short - term fundamentals still face pressure. In June, due to the boost in processing output and the increase in lithium extraction from some spodumene, the balance may be in surplus. The short - term market is expected to operate in a weak range, but the profit - to - risk ratio of short - selling is weakening, and the main contract is expected to operate between 56,000 - 62,000 yuan [1]. Nickel - Recently, the macro situation is temporarily stable, but the sentiment in the spot market is low. The cost support for refined nickel has slightly weakened, and the medium - term supply remains loose, restricting the upside space. The short - term fundamentals change little, and the market is expected to adjust through weak - range shock, with the main contract referring to 118,000 - 124,000 yuan [2]. Stainless Steel - The fundamentals remain weak. The ore end provides some price support, the negotiation range of nickel - iron prices has moved down, the stainless - steel production remains high, and the demand is weak with slow inventory reduction. In the short - term, there is still pressure on the fundamentals due to the supply - demand contradiction. The market is expected to operate weakly, with the main contract operating between 12,400 - 13,000 yuan [5]. Tin - The supply - side recovery is slow. In the short - term, tin prices are expected to be strong and fluctuate. However, considering the pessimistic demand outlook, it is advisable to short at around 260,000 - 265,000 yuan based on the inflection points of inventory and import data [7]. Aluminum - For aluminum, the short - term upper limit is around 20,500 yuan, and the price is expected to be around 20,000 yuan with a fluctuating trend. If the actual demand weakens in the third quarter, the price may find support at 19,000 - 19,500 yuan. For alumina, if the ore - end issues do not worsen, smelters may resume production after profit recovery, and the inventory is expected to gradually increase [8]. Zinc - In the long - term, zinc is in a supply - side loosening cycle. If the growth rate of the ore end is lower than expected and the downstream consumption performs better than expected, zinc prices may remain in a high - level shock pattern. In a pessimistic scenario, zinc prices may decline. It is advisable to short at high levels in the long - term, with the main contract focusing on the support at 21,000 - 21,500 yuan [10]. Copper - Under the combination of "strong reality + weak expectation", copper prices do not have a clear and smooth trend. The strong fundamentals limit the downward movement of prices, while the weak macro - expectations restrict the upside space. In the short - term, prices are expected to fluctuate, with the main contract referring to 77,000 - 80,000 yuan [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 60,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 28,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 59,170 yuan/ton, down 0.42%; SMM industrial - grade lithium hydroxide average price is 53,170 yuan/ton, down 0.47%. The average CIF price of lithium carbonate in China, Japan, and South Korea is 8.05 US dollars/kg, unchanged [1]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2507 and 2508 is 340 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan from the previous value; the spread between 2507 and 2509 is 600 yuan/ton, an increase of 240 yuan; the spread between 2507 and 2512 is 260 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [1]. Fundamental Data - In May, lithium carbonate production was 72,080 tons, a decrease of 2.34% month - on - month; battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 51,573 tons, an increase of 2.33%; industrial - grade lithium carbonate production was 20,507 tons, a decrease of 12.41%. The demand for lithium carbonate in May was 93,938 tons, an increase of 4.81% [1]. Nickel Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel is 120,325 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.42%; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel is 121,425 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41%. The import profit and loss of nickel futures is - 3,234 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.89% [2]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2508 and 2509 is - 180 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is - 180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; the spread between 2510 and 2511 is - 70 yuan/ton, an increase of 220 yuan [2]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production in May was 35,350 tons, a decrease of 2.62% month - on - month; the import volume of refined nickel was 8,832 tons, an increase of 8.18%. SHFE inventory decreased by 5.39% week - on - week, and social inventory decreased by 5.24% [2]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot - futures spread is 295 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14.49% [5]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2508 and 2509 is 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the spread between 2510 and 2511 is - 15 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan [5]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) in April was 179.12 million tons, an increase of 0.36%; the production in Indonesia (Qinglong) was 36 million tons, unchanged. The import volume of stainless steel increased by 10.26%, and the export volume decreased by 4.85% [5]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 tin is 264,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.04%; the price of Yangtze River 1 tin is 264,900 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.04%. The LME 0 - 3 premium is - 110 US dollars/ton, an increase of 15.38% [7]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2507 and 2508 is 10 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan; the spread between 2508 and 2509 is 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is 300 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan [7]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The import volume of tin ore in April was 9,861 tons, an increase of 18.48%; the production of SMM refined tin in May was 14,840 tons, a decrease of 2.37%. The import volume of refined tin in April was 1,128 tons, a decrease of 46.31% [7]. Aluminum Price and Spread - The price of SMM A00 aluminum is 20,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62%; the average price of alumina in Shandong is 3,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.16%. The import profit and loss of aluminum is - 1,138 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [8]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2507 and 2508 is 120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan; the spread between 2508 and 2509 is 125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is 120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan [8]. Fundamental Data - The production of alumina in May was 727.21 million tons, an increase of 2.66%; the production of electrolytic aluminum in May was 372.90 million tons, an increase of 3.41%. The import volume of electrolytic aluminum in April was 25.05 million tons [8]. Zinc Price and Basis - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 21,990 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.95%; the import profit and loss is - 491 yuan/ton, an increase of 56.62 yuan [10]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2507 and 2508 is 185 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan; the spread between 2508 and 2509 is 130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is 85 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan [10]. Fundamental Data - The production of refined zinc in May was 54.94 million tons, a decrease of 1.08%; the import volume of refined zinc in April was 2.82 million tons, an increase of 2.40%. The export volume of refined zinc in April was 0.25 million tons, an increase of 75.76% [10]. Copper Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 78,680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.19%; the import profit and loss is - 1,144 yuan/ton, an increase of 254.33 yuan [13]. Monthly Spread - The spread between 2507 and 2508 is 180 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the spread between 2508 and 2509 is 200 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan; the spread between 2509 and 2510 is 230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan [13]. Fundamental Data - The production of electrolytic copper in May was 113.83 million tons, an increase of 1.12%; the import volume of electrolytic copper in April was 25 million tons, a decrease of 19.06%. The inventory of imported copper concentrates in domestic mainstream ports increased by 8.76% week - on - week [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core View of the Report The supply of polyolefins is under pressure due to the expected restart of multiple previously shut - down plants and the ramp - up of new production capacities. The cost support for polyolefins has increased with the rising international crude oil prices. The propane price has been weakening, leading to a slight increase in the start - up rate of PDH - based PP production. It is the traditional off - season for polyolefin downstream demand, with the agricultural film start - up rate continuing to decline and other terminal start - up rates being weakly volatile. Terminal factories have low enthusiasm for raw material procurement, mainly making rigid - demand purchases. The inventories of upstream factories and traders are being slowly depleted. The strategy for plastics is to be cautiously bearish on the single - side, and there is no strategy for the inter - period [1][3][4] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure The L main contract closed at 7106 yuan/ton (+28), the PP main contract closed at 6941 yuan/ton (+9), the LL spot price in North China was 7140 yuan/ton (+50), the LL spot price in East China was 7120 yuan/ton (+20), the PP spot price in East China was 7080 yuan/ton (+10), the LL basis in North China was 34 yuan/ton (+22), the LL basis in East China was 14 yuan/ton (-8), and the PP basis in East China was 139 yuan/ton (+1) [2] 2. Production Profit and Start - up Rate The PE start - up rate was 77.4% (+0.6%), the PP start - up rate was 77.0% (+1.6%). The PE oil - based production profit was 159.4 yuan/ton (-47.7), the PP oil - based production profit was - 110.6 yuan/ton (-47.7), and the PDH - based PP production profit was - 122.1 yuan/ton (+42.8) [2] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference No specific data and analysis provided in the content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits The LL import profit was - 310.6 yuan/ton (+9.4), the PP import profit was - 475.4 yuan/ton (-15.3), and the PP export profit was 16.5 US dollars/ton (+1.9) [2] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Start - up and Downstream Profits The PE downstream agricultural film start - up rate was 12.9% (-0.1%), the PE downstream packaging film start - up rate was 48.9% (+0.3%), the PP downstream plastic weaving start - up rate was 44.7% (-0.5%), and the PP downstream BOPP film start - up rate was 60.4% (+0.7%). No downstream profit data provided [2] 6. Polyolefin Inventory The upstream factory inventories and trader inventories are being slowly depleted, but no specific inventory data provided [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints - The sentiment towards copper is neutral, with short - term prices expected to oscillate at high levels due to factors such as raw material supply tightness, weakening consumption resilience, high near - month contract positions, and increased export expectations [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, supported by inventory depletion but pressured by tariff hikes and seasonal demand weakness [3]. - Lead prices are likely to remain weak as downstream consumption weakens despite potential small rebounds driven by a warmer commodity market [4]. - Zinc prices face significant downward risks due to oversupply and weak terminal consumption, despite possible small rebounds from a warmer market [6]. - Tin prices are supported by supply uncertainties and strong low - price buying demand, with the supply side facing short - term uncertainties [7]. - Nickel's short - term fundamentals show a slight improvement, but the long - term outlook is bearish, and it is advisable to short on rebounds [8]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom as the short - term fundamentals remain unchanged and the inventory pressure persists [10]. - Alumina prices are expected to be anchored by costs, and it is recommended to short on high prices as the capacity surplus persists [13]. - Stainless steel market will continue to be under pressure in the short term due to high inventory, weak demand, and other negative factors [15]. Summary by Metals Copper - Last week, LME copper rose 1.83% to $9670/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78620 yuan/ton. Three - exchange inventories decreased by 0.9 tons, with different trends in each exchange. The import loss of spot copper widened, and the export window for spot feed - processing opened. The short - term price is expected to oscillate between 77200 - 79200 yuan/ton for SHFE copper and 9450 - 9800 dollars/ton for LME copper [1]. Aluminum - Last week, SHFE aluminum closed flat, and LME aluminum rose 0.12% to $2451/ton. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories continued to decline, and the spot basis decreased. The supply increased slightly, and demand weakened. The price is expected to fluctuate between 19800 - 20200 yuan/ton for SHFE aluminum and 2380 - 2500 dollars/ton for LME aluminum [3]. Lead - As of Friday, SHFE lead index rose 0.49% to 16775 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $1990.5/ton. Fed's dovish remarks and strong non - farm data may drive a small rebound, but weak downstream consumption and high inventories will keep prices weak [4]. Zinc - As of Friday, SHFE zinc index rose 0.14% to 22289 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2690/ton. A warmer market may cause a small rebound, but oversupply and weak consumption pose significant downward risks [6]. Tin - Last week, tin prices rebounded from the bottom. Supply may face a 500 - 1000 - ton reduction in June, and smelters plan to cut production. Demand has not increased significantly, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm declines as prices rise. The price is expected to range from 230000 - 260000 yuan/ton domestically and 28000 - 31000 dollars/ton overseas [7]. Nickel - Last week, nickel prices oscillated. Nickel ore supply is tight, nickel - iron prices rebounded, MHP prices are high, and nickel sulfate prices may strengthen. The short - term outlook is slightly better, but the long - term is bearish. The price is expected to range from 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton for SHFE nickel [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The MMLC index was flat on Friday, and the futures contract rebounded slightly. The current lithium salt production is high, and the inventory pressure persists. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, with the main contract ranging from 59520 - 61540 yuan/ton [10]. Alumina - On June 6, the alumina index fell 1.36% to 2899 yuan/ton. The import window opened, and the inventory decreased. Due to capacity surplus, prices are expected to be cost - anchored, and it is recommended to short on high prices. The main contract AO2509 is expected to range from 2800 - 3200 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12680 yuan/ton. Spot prices were mostly stable, and inventories increased. The market will continue to be under pressure due to high inventory, weak demand, and other factors [15].

Production Side - As of the fourth week of May, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.89%, up 0.26 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The rebar operating rate was 42.64%, increasing by 0.83 percentage points month-on-month[3] - The cement mill operating rate was at a low level of 41.83%, down 0.40 percentage points from the previous month[3] - The inventory of rebar was 186.42 million tons, down 0.69 percentage points month-on-month[3] Demand Side - In May, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities was 201.56 million square meters, down 2.12% month-on-month[60] - The land transaction area was 903.48 million square meters, down 5.97% month-on-month[60] - The average daily sales of passenger cars were 60,823 units, up 18.85% month-on-month[89] Price Trends - The average price of cement was 368.33 yuan/ton, down 1.61% month-on-month[72] - The price of rebar was 3,077.13 yuan/ton, down 2.36% month-on-month[73] - The PPI for copper was 77,042 yuan/ton, down 0.58% month-on-month[99]

化工日报 | 2025-06-04 青岛港口库存小幅下降 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约13450元/吨，较前一日变动+45元/吨。NR主力合约11810元/吨，较前一日变动-55 元/吨。现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格13400元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混13500元/吨， 较前一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1670美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标 胶1610美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11400元/吨，较前一日变动-300元/吨。 浙江传化BR9000市场价11200元/吨，较前一日变动-200元/吨。 近期市场资讯：QinRex最新数据显示，1-4月，越南出口混合橡胶合计28.2万吨，较去年的27万吨同比增加4.4%。 其中，SVR3L混合出口6.1万吨，同比增33%；SVR10混合出口21.8万吨，同比降2%；RSS3混合出口0.33万吨，同 比降6%。 针对于2025年"端午节"假期轮胎企业检修计划情况，隆众资讯对部分样本企业进行了调研，由于5月初部分企业已 经在"劳动节"假期 ...