大众品：表现分化，结构性增长。 1 ）啤酒： 25Q1 收入同比 +4% 、净利润同比 +11% ， 销量景气修 复吨价承压，成本优势利润率持续改善。 2 ）软饮料： 25Q1 收入同比 +3% 、净利润同比 +1% ，继 续保持较好景气度，龙头亮各有亮点。 3 ）零食： 食品综合板块分化明显，其中新渠道和新品类驱动下 零食成长性凸显， 24Q4 、 25Q1 收入分别同比 +18% 、 +2% ， 25Q1 受高基数和春节提前等因素影 响业绩增速阶段性下滑。 4 ）乳制品： 2024 年（ A 股）收入同比 -7% 、净利润 -27% ，度过调整期 后 25Q1 景气度和毛销差边际改善。 5 ）调味品： 2024 年板块收入边际改善， 25Q1 业绩稳步增长， 收入同比 +3% 、净利润同比 +7% 、毛利率同比 +1.6pct 。 6 ） 餐饮供应链： 竞争加剧导致 2024 年 板块利润承压， 25Q1 收入同比 -5% 、利润同比 -13% 环比降速。 风险提示： 消费复苏不及预期、市场竞争加剧、成本进一步上涨、食品安全问题。 文章来源 本文摘自：2025年5月5日发布的 结构分化，重视成长——食品饮 ...

农林牧渔 2025 年 05 月 05 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -29% -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 农林牧渔 沪深300 相关研究报告 《2025Q1 农业板块公募重仓持股占 比下降，中宠股份获逆势增持—行业 周报》-2025.4.27 《2025Q1 农业板块公募基金重仓持 股占比下降，中宠股份获逆势增持— 行业点评报告》-2025.4.24 《3 月肉鸡价格小幅回暖，关注五一 和端午需求回暖支撑价格—行业点评 报告》-2025.4.22 2024 年养殖板块利润同比高增，宠物板块高景气延 续 ——行业周报 | 陈雪丽（分析师） | 王高展（联系人） | 朱本伦（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | chenxueli@kysec.cn | wanggaozhan@kysec.cn | zhubenlun@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030001 | 证书编号：S0790123060055 | 证书编号：S0790124060020 | wanggaozhan@kyse ...

农林牧渔 2025 年 05 月 05 日 相关研究报告 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -29% -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 农林牧渔 沪深300 《2025Q1 农业板块公募重仓持股占 比下降，中宠股份获逆势增持—行业 周报》-2025.4.27 《2025Q1 农业板块公募基金重仓持 股占比下降，中宠股份获逆势增持— 行业点评报告》-2025.4.24 《3 月肉鸡价格小幅回暖，关注五一 和端午需求回暖支撑价格—行业点评 报告》-2025.4.22 2024 年养殖板块利润同比高增，宠物板块高景气延 续 ——行业周报 | 陈雪丽（分析师） | 王高展（联系人） | 朱本伦（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | chenxueli@kysec.cn | wanggaozhan@kysec.cn | zhubenlun@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030001 | 证书编号：S0790123060055 | 证书编号：S0790124060020 | wanggaozhan@kyse ...

据交通运输部预测，在今年"五一"期间，日均跨区域人员流动量将超过2.7亿人次。假期出行热除了 利好最直接的旅游景区外，还利好从交通出行、酒店住宿、文艺演出、旅行服务到免税零售等诸多 行业。 近日，多家在线平台发布"五一"旅游报告，预计今年"五一"黄金周期间，旅游业延续复苏势头，在去年 同期高基数基础上消费活力持续释放。综合同程旅行平台的数据，今年"五一"假期的旅行热度或将达到 2023年以来"五一"假期的峰值。 同程研究院统计，今年"五一"期间，出行成本降低激活大众旅游需求，机票单程均价同比下降约11%。 从出行距离来看，长距离出行占比攀升，1200公里以上的航线占比近70%，较去年同期增长3个百分 点。其中，北京—三亚、上海—乌鲁木齐等航线热度攀升，印证"走得远"成为假期出游关键词。 华住数据显示，"五一"假期期间连续2天及以上的订单占比接近50%，折射出游客更加倾向于安排时间 充裕、更具深度体验的旅行。总体来看，今年"五一"假期，一线城市作为传统旅行目的地，酒店预订率 仍然保持稳定；二线城市酒店预订率比去年增长了1.5个百分点；三线城市酒店预订率比去年增加了2个 百分点；四线城市酒店预订率比去年则增加了4 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2024 annual report and 2025 Q1 report, showing mixed performance with a slight revenue growth for the year but a decline in Q4 2024 revenue, while Q1 2025 showed recovery in revenue growth [1][2]. Revenue Summary - For 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 12.262 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%. In Q4 2024, revenue was 3.001 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 7%, while Q1 2025 revenue was 2.858 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5% [1]. - In H2 2024, elevator media revenue was 6.044 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1%, while cinema media revenue was 235 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 40%. The decline in cinema media was attributed to weak domestic box office performance affecting advertiser demand [2]. Profit Summary - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 5.155 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%. In Q4 2024, net profit was 1.187 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3%, while Q1 2025 net profit was 1.135 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9% [1]. - The company faced credit impairment losses impacting profits, with Q4 2024 losses of 32 million yuan and Q1 2025 losses of 52 million yuan, reflecting macroeconomic influences on advertiser payment cycles [5]. Cost Summary - In 2024, cinema media costs decreased by 30%, leading to a gross margin increase of 9 percentage points to 70%. Conversely, elevator media rental costs are expected to increase by 9%, with a 2% increase in per unit rental costs [4]. - The company maintained a gross margin of 66% for elevator media, remaining stable year-on-year, aided by reduced equipment depreciation and lower employee compensation costs [4]. Dividend Summary - The company announced a total dividend of 4.766 billion yuan for 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 92.4%, slightly lower than the previous year's 98.7% [6]. Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 12.5 billion yuan, 12.9 billion yuan, and 13.4 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of 5.4 billion yuan, 5.7 billion yuan, and 6 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 18x, 17x, and 17x [7].

Summary of China Consumer Pulse 1Q25 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese consumer market** and highlights the **fragile recovery** in consumer sentiment across various sectors, including **premium beverages**, **apparel**, **luxury goods**, **autos**, **travel**, and **home appliances** [2][30]. Key Insights 1. **Consumer Sentiment and Spending Trends** - Chinese consumer sentiment shows signs of a **fragile recovery** with **experiential spending** leading the way, particularly in **restaurant activity** and **travel** [30][32]. - **Restaurant app usage** increased by **26% YoY**, and travel during Chinese New Year and Qing Ming saw increases of **9%** and **6%** respectively [4][32]. 2. **Channel Performance** - **Digital channels** significantly outperform traditional retail, with **e-commerce beauty sales** growing by **12.7%** and **apparel platforms** by **14%** [2][32]. - Physical retail continues to struggle, indicating a stark divergence in channel performance [30]. 3. **Premium Segment Dynamics** - The **luxury goods** sector shows mixed signals, with consumers becoming more discerning and holding back on spending amid economic uncertainty [6][32]. - **Premium beverages** maintain stable pricing, while **high-end hotels** outperform the broader market [30][32]. - **Premium auto sales** have deteriorated significantly, down **13.5% YoY** [7][32]. 4. **Home Appliances and Export Strength** - The home appliance sector showed solid performance with **air conditioner shipments** growing **16% YoY**, primarily driven by strong export demand [11][12][32]. - Recent tariff announcements raise concerns about the sustainability of this growth [12][32]. 5. **Macroeconomic Factors** - Persistent **deflation** (-0.1% CPI) and escalating **trade tensions** contribute to cautious consumer behavior, with expectations of lower prices leading to delayed purchases [3][30]. - The **Q1 PMI** improved, but anticipated contraction in April indicates fragile business confidence [3][30]. 6. **Outlook and Risks** - The recovery remains fragile and vulnerable to reversal due to economic uncertainty, deflationary pressures, and escalating US-China trade tensions [30][32]. - Any acceleration in government stimulus could potentially support consumer spending [3][30]. Additional Insights - **Travel Industry**: The travel sector showed resilience with a **7%** growth in travelers, despite challenges in outbound travel due to incidents in Southeast Asia [9][23]. - **Cosmetics Sector**: Beauty eCommerce tracked companies showed a recovery with **Gross Merchandise Value** growing **12.7%**, but concerns about sustainability remain due to weak macroeconomic indicators [10][32]. - **Automotive Sector**: In Q1 2025, **EV sales** increased by **34.7% YoY**, with penetration reaching **46.1%**, indicating a strong shift towards electric vehicles [7][28]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the complexities and challenges within the Chinese consumer market, emphasizing the need for careful monitoring of economic indicators and consumer behavior trends.

证券研究报告 比音勒芬 (002832 CH) 营收稳步增长，盈利能力短期承压 华泰研究 年报点评 2025 年 4 月 29 日│中国内地 服装 比音勒芬发布 2024 年报及 1Q25 业绩：2024 年公司实现营收 40.0 亿元 （yoy+13.2%），归母净利润 7.8 亿元（yoy-14.3%），低于我们此前预期（9.1 亿元），主因消费环境仍处于弱复苏，线下渠道毛利承压明显。1Q25 营收 12.9 亿元（yoy+1.4%），归母净利润 3.3 亿元（yoy-8.5%）。利润分配方面， 24 全年拟派息 0.5 元/股，分红率约 36.6%。公司盈利短期相对承压，但营 收在消费复苏尚不确定的环境下仍保持同业领先的稳健增长，叠加定位高端 消费人群的用户壁垒以及海外品牌 KENT&CURWEN 开启第二增长曲线等 优势，维持"买入"评级。 全品类、全渠道协同发展，共同驱动公司营收增长 分品类来看，上装、外套、下装收入分别同比+13.1%/17.5%/6.3%至 17.1/11.6/7.5 亿元，占营收比重分别为 42.8%/28.8%18.8%。上装作为核心 品类，凭借其丰富的款式设计与优质面料，持 ...

奈雪门店回应倡议喝奶茶代替水：玩梗已撤下 外媒消息显示，越南Highlands Coffee在首次提出IPO计划近10年后重新考虑这一计划。创始人兼首席执 行官David Thai称，这家快乐蜂食品公司旗下的咖啡连锁店正在与投资银行商讨在越南、新加坡、香 港、阿联酋和美国证券交易所上市的可能性。 麦当劳亚太前高层加盟霸王茶姬 近日，河南驻马店奈雪的茶（玖隆茂店）在店内摆放的一份《重要通知》引发热议，该通知内容为 "能 喝奶茶就不要喝水"，不少消费者对此提出质疑。 4月29日，门店方面做出回应。门店工作人员证实，这份《重要通知》确实在柜台摆放了两三天，之后 区域经理要求撤掉，原因是内容不合适。店长解释称，这是模仿网络热梗，单纯为了搞笑，并无其他特 殊引导意图。 然而，从健康角度来看，合肥市第一人民医院营养科负责人江茜明确表示，奶茶绝对不能替代正常饮 水。"能喝奶茶就不要喝水" 这种提法无疑会误导消费者。在日常生活中，人们应优先选择饮用纯净 水、白开水或者淡茶水，减少含糖饮料的摄入。虽然每周适量饮用一两杯奶茶并无大碍，但绝不能将奶 茶作为身体水分的主要来源。 瑞幸咖啡新疆三地十店同开 近日，瑞幸咖啡新疆市场迎来十 ...

白酒：五一临近关注宴席场景拉动，Q1 板块释压预计总体持平微增。本周白酒板块-1.75%， 表现弱于食品饮料整体以及沪深 300，我们认为主要系：①当前处白酒消费淡季，需求端总体 仍偏弱；②25Q1 行业主动调整去库存&高基数背景下报表端预计承压。本周舍得酒业、华致 酒行发布一季报，天佑德酒、顺鑫农业、五粮液、老白干酒发布年报&一季报，总体表现符合 预期（五粮液25Q1略超预期），从目前发布的酒企财报来看预计降速释压仍是酒企24Q4&25Q1 主旋律。五一旺季来临各头部品牌纷纷加码婚宴投入力度，从多地酒店宴席预订量增长情况来 看，五一期间白酒宴席场景预计有增长，或加速行业库存去化节奏，助力行业逐步走出调整。 4 月 25 日中央政治局会议提到，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的 财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，同时，还提到将通过创设新工具精准引导资金流向科技创新、 扩大消费、稳定外贸等领域。当前（2025-04-26）申万白酒指数 PE-TTM 为 19.44X，处于近 10 年 11.49%的合理偏低水位，在中央政治局会议积极定调背景下，建议关注后续具体刺激政 策出台为板块带来的估值修复机会 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1][4] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on its fundamentals, with expectations for improvement in the future [5][6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 23.17 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 7 billion yuan, which represents 105% of the net profit for the period [5][9] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's revenue was 28.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.8% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.7 billion yuan, down 33.4% year-on-year [5][8] - For Q4 2024, the revenue was 1.4 billion yuan, a decline of 52.2% year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.9 billion yuan compared to a loss of 0.2 billion yuan in the same period last year [5] - In Q1 2025, the revenue was 11.1 billion yuan, down 31.9% year-on-year, and the net profit was 3.64 billion yuan, a decrease of 39.9% year-on-year [5][8] Revenue Breakdown - The company's liquor revenue in 2024 was 28.2 billion yuan, down 13% year-on-year, with volume and price changes of -16% and +4%, respectively [9] - The mid-to-high-end liquor segment generated 24.3 billion yuan, down 14.8% year-on-year, while the ordinary liquor segment achieved 3.9 billion yuan, down 0.5% year-on-year [9] Cost and Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for 2024 was 73.2%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 23.1%, down 7.1 percentage points year-on-year [9][12] - The company has increased its sales and management expense ratios to 19.1% and 6.7%, respectively, reflecting a rise in competitive pressures [9] Future Projections - The company expects a slight revenue increase in 2025 to 28.97 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 6.7 billion yuan [8][12] - The estimated net profit for 2026 and 2027 is 6.9 billion yuan and 7.1 billion yuan, respectively [8][12] Shareholder Returns - The company is committed to returning value to shareholders through dividends, maintaining a high payout ratio despite the decline in profits [5][9]