Summary of Tungsten Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The tungsten industry is facing a significant decline in domestic tungsten ore production, with a year-on-year decrease of over 10% due to declining resource quality. The allocation for the first half of 2025 is also expected to drop significantly, indicating a worsening resource depletion issue. Even with increased quotas, production targets may not be met, leading to a supply decline that is an objective challenge [1][6]. Key Points and Arguments - **Demand Dynamics**: Civilian demand is crucial for the tungsten industry's development. There has been a notable increase in price hikes from tool manufacturers, indicating a concentrated restocking effort. The prices of APT and tungsten powder have risen significantly, and the PMI in China rose unexpectedly to above 50 in December, suggesting that civilian demand is starting to pick up, leading to an optimistic outlook for future development [1][5]. - **Hard Alloy Market**: Hard alloys, which account for nearly 60% of the downstream market, are expected to see production growth rates between 10%-20% when the PMI exceeds 50. The anticipated economic recovery and interest rate cuts are expected to significantly boost the hard alloy market, potentially making 2026 a year of recovery [1][8]. - **Price Forecast**: Global tungsten production is expected to grow slowly by about 2% in 2026, while demand is projected to rebound to 5%-6%. With low inventory levels and recovering demand, tungsten prices are expected to rise significantly, with an average price forecast of 500,000 yuan/ton or higher for 2026 [1][9][10]. - **Impact of Export Controls**: Export controls to Japan may lead to supply tightness, as approximately 7% of domestic tungsten production is exported to Japan. Historically, such controls have positively impacted stock markets, reinforcing tungsten's strategic resource importance and enhancing its valuation recovery potential [1][11]. Additional Insights - **Market Concerns**: There are concerns regarding the sustainability of tungsten price increases, which have risen from 110,000-120,000 yuan in the first half of 2024 to over 400,000 yuan by late 2025. If high prices can be maintained for two to five years, valuations may not drop to the typical 10 times but could reach 20 to 30 times [2]. - **Stock Performance**: In Q3 2026, the non-ferrous metal sector performed well, with tungsten-related stocks rising primarily due to valuation increases rather than profit growth. The military demand, which accounts for about 15% of the market, has expanded but is insufficient to fully support the industry without a recovery in civilian demand [3][7]. - **Long-term Opportunities**: The expected price increases are likely to enhance the profitability and quality of leading tungsten companies, with significant valuation improvements anticipated. Companies like Zhongtung and Xiamen Tungsten are expected to reach market capitalizations of 100 billion yuan, while new entrants like Beijete and Xinjinlu are also worth monitoring for long-term investment opportunities [3][12].

Core Viewpoint - The Australian currency market is discussing the possibility of an interest rate hike in February, but some economists warn that a reflexive response to inflation data could undermine the fragile economic recovery [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - AMP's Deputy Chief Economist, Diana Mousina, stated that a rate hike would harm the private sector, which has just begun to show signs of improvement [1] - Recent signals from the Reserve Bank of Australia indicate that rate cuts are no longer an option, which has led to an increase in bond yields over the past month, tightening the monetary environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement by the U.S. President regarding the transfer of 30 to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan oil to the U.S. raises concerns about the viability and risks associated with investing in Venezuela's oil industry, which is currently facing significant challenges [1][5]. Group 1: Oil Transfer Announcement - The Venezuelan interim government plans to transfer 30 to 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., which is equivalent to approximately 30 to 50 days of Venezuela's oil production [3][5]. - The estimated value of this oil transfer could exceed $2.8 billion based on current WTI crude oil prices [3]. - The oil is expected to be transported by tankers directly to U.S. unloading docks for processing [3]. Group 2: Challenges in Venezuelan Oil Industry - Despite the potential for increased oil production, U.S. oil companies are cautious due to the deteriorating state of Venezuela's oil industry and the risk of significant financial loss [1][5]. - The Venezuelan oil infrastructure is in a state of disrepair, requiring an estimated $53 billion in investment over the next 15 years just to maintain current production levels of approximately 1.1 million barrels per day [5]. - The ongoing U.S. oil embargo has severely restricted Venezuela's oil exports, with predictions that over 70% of the country's oil production could be halted this year [5]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The economic pressure from the U.S. is likely to hinder Venezuela's mild recovery from years of hyperinflation and food shortages, potentially leading to another economic collapse [6]. - Experts warn that the collapse of oil revenues will have severe consequences for the Venezuelan population, possibly resulting in famine or a mass migration crisis [6]. - The forced transfer of oil from third-party investments in Venezuela to the U.S. is viewed as unacceptable and could cause long-term damage to the Venezuelan economy [6].

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2026 年 1 月 7 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价联袂走高，LME 铜收盘价再创历史新高，国内精炼铜进口维系亏损。宏 | | | 观方面，美联储内部就降息路径继续产生较大分歧，里士满联储主席巴尔金称利率已 | | | 至中性水平，而理事米兰表示数据支持进一步降息，今年幅度或超 100 个基点。国内方 | | | 面，央行工作会议上明确 2026 年重点工作，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，灵活高效 | | | 运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具。库存方面，LME 库存增加 3525 吨至 146075 吨； | | 铜 | Comex 库存增加 4996 吨至 461654 吨；SHFE 铜仓单增加 2989 吨至 93271 吨，BC 铜维 | | | 持 1053 吨。需求方面，因铜价持续高位，终端订单有所放缓，市场维系刚性采购需求。 | | | 贵金属表现持续乐观下，做多情绪正在传导，尽管当下铜基本面表现并不乐观，但市场 | | | 对 26 年经济复苏仍存较强预期，资金成为短线铜价的主要推手，调整节奏被延后，操 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index has achieved its longest winning streak in 33 years with thirteen consecutive days of gains, and new account openings have surged to a nearly three-year high [1][3] - In 2025, over 27 million new accounts were opened, with institutional account openings increasing by 35% year-on-year, indicating a significant shift towards institutional investment [3] Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The People's Bank of China has included flexible use of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts and interest rate reductions in its toolkit for 2026, alongside potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which may lead to a mild appreciation of the RMB [3] - The market logic for 2026 is shifting from valuation-driven speculation to a focus on corporate earnings, providing a more solid foundation for medium to long-term investments [3] Investment Opportunities - Focus on medium to long-term investments rather than short-term speculative plays, avoiding sectors with low fundamental support [4] - Key sectors to watch include industrial resources aligned with AI and global manufacturing recovery, such as copper, aluminum, and lithium; equipment export chains like photovoltaics, lithium batteries, and engineering machinery; and consumer sectors benefiting from recovery, including aviation, hotels, and food and beverage [4] - The tightening of export controls on dual-use items to Japan and the potential tightening of rare earth export reviews highlight the strategic importance of these resources, making companies with core resources worth monitoring for long-term investment [4] Investment Strategy - Emphasize a long-term investment approach, akin to slow-cooking, rather than reacting to short-term market fluctuations [4] - Selecting the right sectors and holding fundamentally strong companies with growth potential is deemed more reliable than frequent trading based on market volatility [4]

宁证期货投资咨询中心 投资咨询业务资格： Z0012851 F3008987 2026 宏观年度报告 Buge 经济复苏缓慢，美国中期选举年 摘 要： 2025 特朗普的第二任期内，再次发动针对全球的关税大战，并以中美元首釜 山会晤告一段落。上半年全球经济复苏较为强劲，下半年关税效应凸显，经济有 所承压，整体来看 2025 年全球经济依然具有较大韧性，展望 2026 年，全球经济 或依然处于缓慢复苏的阶段，压力与挑战并存，但是主要经济体的发展阶段和央 行策略或有所分化。 证监许可【2011】1775 号 2025 年，美国经历了历史上最长政府停摆，很多经济数据无法及时追踪，从 目前来看，虽然美国通胀有持续走高的压力，就业数据也有所恶化，但整体来看 美国经济依然具有较大韧性，展望 2026 年，在中期选举及美联储高层更换的背 景下，降息周期持续，财政刺激不会缺席，美国经济依然不悲观。欧盟 2025 年 经济复苏整体不及预期，俄乌冲突没有根本性解决，拖累了欧盟的复苏动力和进 程，2026 年如果俄乌冲突彻底画上句号，那么全球经济增长动能或有所增加，欧 元区处于一个经济缓慢复苏，货币政策较为稳定的局面。日本由于通胀 ...

Copper - Copper prices have risen significantly, with LME copper closing at a historical high, while domestic refined copper imports remain unprofitable [3][12] - The Federal Reserve shows internal disagreement on interest rate cuts, with Richmond Fed President Barkin stating rates are at neutral levels, while others suggest cuts could exceed 100 basis points this year [3][12] - LME copper inventory increased by 3,525 tons to 146,075 tons, Comex inventory rose by 4,996 tons to 461,654 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 2,989 tons to 93,271 tons [3][12] - Demand for copper is slowing due to high prices, but there remains a rigid purchasing demand in the market [3][12] - Despite the current unfavorable fundamentals for copper, there is strong market expectation for economic recovery in 2026, leading to a bullish sentiment in the short term [3][12] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel rose by 6.59% to $18,430 per ton, while SHFE nickel reached a limit-up at 147,720 yuan per ton [4][14] - LME nickel inventory increased by 192 tons to 255,546 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts rose by 964 tons to 39,388 tons [4][14] - The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association reported a significant decrease in nickel ore production targets for 2026, down to 250 million tons from 379 million tons in 2025 [4][14] - Domestic social inventory of primary nickel saw a slight increase last week, while both LME and SHFE inventories experienced a decrease [4][14] Aluminum & Aluminum Alloys - Alumina prices showed a strong upward trend, with AO2605 closing at 2,915 yuan per ton, a 4.14% increase [6][15] - SHFE aluminum also saw a rise, with AL2602 closing at 24,695 yuan per ton, up 2.58% [6][15] - Current aluminum ingot spot prices are under pressure due to increased inventory and reduced outflow from major sales areas [6][15] - The market is experiencing a bullish sentiment driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is supporting aluminum prices [6][15] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract closing at 8,900 yuan per ton, up 1.37% [7][16] - Polysilicon prices also rose, with the main contract closing at 59,365 yuan per ton, a 1.69% increase [7][16] - The production of industrial silicon is shifting northward, but demand is declining, leading to a potential oversupply situation [7][16] - The industry is expected to see a reduction in polysilicon supply due to self-regulation and coordinated production cuts [7][16] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures reached a limit-up at 137,940 yuan per ton, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rising by 8,000 yuan to 127,500 yuan per ton [8][17] - Weekly production of lithium increased by 259 tons to 22,420 tons, with various sources contributing to the increase [8][17] - Forecasts indicate a slight decrease in lithium carbonate production for January 2026, with expected declines in several categories [8][17] - Market sentiment is sensitive to geopolitical and policy factors affecting lithium supply, with expectations for price increases to be transmitted downstream [8][17]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, maintain a long - term view of going long on the economy. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips as using stock indices as a long - position substitute currently has certain excess returns [3] - For treasury bond futures, in the medium - to - long term, with the upward risk preference and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to conduct hedging on T and TL contracts on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On January 6th, A - share four major stock indices all rose. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.5% to close at 4083.67 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.4% to close at 14022.55 points, the ChiNext Index rose 0.75% to close at 3319.29 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 1.84% to close at 1429.3 points. Market trading volume was 28,323 billion yuan, an increase of 2,650 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, non - ferrous metals (+4.26%), non - bank finance (+3.73%), and basic chemicals (+3.12%) led the gains; communication (-0.77%), beauty care (+0.2%), and banks (+0.48%) led the losses [2] - In terms of market strength, IC > IH > IF > IM. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks was 4,101/140/1,218 respectively. In Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main, large - scale investor, and retail investor funds had net inflows of 34, - 210, - 50, and 227 billion yuan respectively, with changes of - 57, - 57, +69, and +44 billion yuan [2] 3.2 Stock Index Futures - **Basis and Basis Annualized Yield**: The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts was 51.3, 8.54, 5.89, and - 0.44 points respectively, and the basis annualized yields were - 5.44%, - 0.91%, - 1.03%, and 0.12% respectively. The three - year historical quantiles were 65%, 83%, 55%, and 50% respectively [3] - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium - to - long term, maintain a long - position view on the economy. It is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of each variety on dips [3] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On January 6th, interest - rate bonds weakened. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0.05%, TF fell 0.11%, T fell 0.13%, and TL fell 0.31% [3] - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2603 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures CTD bond 250017.IB, the yield changed +1.75bps, corresponding to a net basis of 0.02 and an IRR of 1.33%; for the 5 - year treasury bond futures CTD bond 2500801.IB, the yield changed +3bps, corresponding to a net basis of - 0.047 and an IRR of 1.68%; for the 10 - year treasury bond futures CTD bond 250018.IB, the yield changed +2.6bps, corresponding to a net basis of 0.01 and an IRR of 1.38%; for the 30 - year treasury bond futures CTD bond 210005.IB, the yield changed +1.75bps, corresponding to a net basis of - 0.196 and an IRR of 2.25% [3] - **Funding Situation**: In open - market operations, the central bank injected 162 billion yuan and withdrew 3,125 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 2,963 billion yuan [3] - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium - to - long term, with the upward risk preference and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to conduct hedging on T and TL contracts on rallies [3] 3.4 Stock Index Futures Spot Market Performance - Details of the rise and fall, current price, trading volume, trading value, open interest, daily position change, settlement price, basis, and basis annualized yield of various stock index futures contracts (such as IC2601, IF2601, etc.) and corresponding spot indices (such as CSI 500, SSE Composite Index) are provided in Table 1 [6] 3.5 Treasury Bond Futures Spot Market Performance - Details of the rise and fall, current price, trading volume, trading value, open interest, daily position change, settlement price, net basis, CTD bond implied interest, and cash bond yield of various treasury bond futures contracts (such as TS2603, TF2603, etc.) and corresponding cash bonds (such as 22 - attached coupon treasury bond 22, 25 - attached coupon treasury bond 03) are provided in Table 2 [7] 3.6 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that the prosperity of manufacturing, real estate, import and export, and social activities is currently lower than in previous periods, while the prosperity of infrastructure is similar to that in previous periods [11]

Group 1: Japanese Economic Outlook - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, indicated that further interest rate hikes may occur if economic and price trends align with the Bank's expectations [1][6] - Japan's economy showed moderate recovery last year, withstanding the impact of U.S. tariffs on corporate profits [1][6] - Ueda expects wages and prices to rise moderately in sync, emphasizing that adjusting monetary policy is crucial for sustained economic growth [1][6] Group 2: European Economic Forecast - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that Europe's economy will reach $31.4 trillion by 2026, with Germany leading at $5.3 trillion [2][7] - The UK and France are expected to follow with nominal GDPs of $4.2 trillion and $3.6 trillion, respectively, contributing over 40% to Europe's GDP [2][7] - Italy and Spain are anticipated to achieve moderate growth, with nominal GDPs of $2.7 trillion and $2 trillion by 2026 [2][7] Group 3: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices surged, breaking the $4,400 mark and reaching a four-day high, trading around $4,470 [3][9] - The rise in gold prices is primarily driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and ongoing expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts [3][9] - Weak economic data from the U.S. has also provided support for gold prices [3][9] Group 4: Currency Market Movements - The USD/JPY pair experienced slight declines, trading around 156.30, influenced by profit-taking and a weaker dollar index due to soft economic data [4][10] - The USD/CAD pair saw an upward trend, reaching a four-week high near 1.3800, supported by reduced expectations of U.S. rate cuts and geopolitical tensions affecting the Canadian dollar [5][11]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten-year high signals a strong trend establishment, significantly boosting market confidence for the medium to long term [4] Market Overview - The market is experiencing a structural bull market, with the index hitting new highs and trading volume approaching 1.8 trillion yuan, with over 3,600 stocks rising [3] - Leading sectors include brain-computer interfaces, non-ferrous metals, and chemicals, with Zijin Mining's market capitalization surpassing 1 trillion yuan, indicating strong cyclical forces [3] - There is a clear market strategy of betting on disruptive technology while also holding onto cyclical recovery clues [3] Market Dynamics - There is a noticeable shift in market focus, with previously strong sectors like AI hardware showing weakness, indicating a "high-low switch" and "style rotation" within a stable total capital environment [3] - This internal rotation is seen as a healthy sign of a bull market, suggesting a layered market movement rather than a uniform rise [3] Investment Strategy - For investors already in leading sectors, the strategy is to "hold and observe," monitoring the strength of these sectors without rushing to increase positions [5] - Investors in adjusting sectors should differentiate between fundamentally strong leaders and mere speculative stocks, maintaining positions in the former while considering adjustments in the latter [5] - For those with lighter positions, it is advised to avoid chasing the leading sectors at emotional peaks and instead look for opportunities in potential stocks that align with main themes like economic recovery and technological innovation [5]