证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·环保 环保行业跟踪周报 绿电直连政策打开垃圾焚烧发电 IDC合作空 间，固废板块提分红+供热 IDC 拓展提 ROE 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] ◼ 风险提示：政策推广不及预期，财政支出低于预期，行业竞争加剧。 2025 年 06 月 03 日 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 陈孜文 执业证书：S0600523070006 chenzw@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -15% -11% -7% -3% 1% 5% 9% 13% 17% 21% 2024/6/3 2024/10/1 2025/1/29 2025/5/29 环保 沪深300 相关研究 《全国绿电直连政策发布，打开垃圾 焚烧发电 IDC 合作空间》 2025-06-02 《水污染治理从关注"老大难"到"提 质增效"，固废板块提分红+供热 IDC 拓展提 ROE》 2025-05-27 东吴证券研究所 1 / 24 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 重点推荐：瀚蓝环 ...

北方火电释放弹性，水电业绩稳健增长 [Table_Industry] 公用事业 电力行业 FY24&25Q1 业绩总结 [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 本报告导读： 北方火电业绩高增，水电盈利稳定性增强，绿电业绩承压，核电电价影响行业利润。 投资要点： 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 票 股 行 业 跟 踪 报 告 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.06.03 [table_Authors] 2025-06-03 [Table_Summary] 投资建议：建议继续关注行业相关投资机会。重点标的：火电弹性 （华电国际、皖能电力、大唐发电、华能国际）；水火并济（国电电 力）；新能源（三峡能源、龙源电力、福能股份）；水电（长江电力、 华能水电、川投能源）；核电（中国核电，中国广核）。 火电：成本端改善明显，北方火电业绩高增。25Q1 全国性火电公司 盈利仍保持增长，但地方性火电公司出现一定程度分化，北方火电 厂盈利增速整体优于南方电厂。截至 23Q1、24Q1、25Q1 末火电样 本公司 PE 中位数分别为 15.7、12.9、10.4 倍，PE 估值持续 ...

地瓜机器人完成 1 亿美元 A 轮融资： 2025 年 5 月 28 日，地平线机 器人-W（9660.HK）旗下地瓜机器人宣布完成 1 亿美元 A 轮融资。本轮融 资获得海内外众多投资机构青睐，由高瓴创投、五源资本、线性资本、和暄 资本、九合创投、Vertex Growth 等投资机构共同参投，为地瓜机器人加速构 建具身智能生态版图注入强劲动力。为加速具身智能机器人落地进程，地瓜 机器人将在 6 月正式发售面向具身智能机器人的 RDK S100 机器人开发套 件。该平台具备百 TOPS 级算力，拥有强大的异构架构设计，是行业首款单 SoC 算控一体计算平台，可实现机器人感知与运控协同计算。 电力设备及新能源 行业周报（202526-20250601） 同步大市-A(维持) 上海成立具身智能数据联盟，硅料价格下行 2025 年 6 月 3 日 行业研究/行业周报 电力设备及新能源行业近一年市场表现 投资要点 资料来源：最闻 | 首选股票 | | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | | 600732.SH | 爱旭股份 | 买入-B | | 601012.SH | 隆基绿能 | 买入-B | | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [7] Core Views - The company is transitioning from a financial investment strategy to an industrial investment holding group, focusing on new energy and new technology sectors, aligning with national policy directions and market trends [4][12][15] - The company has successfully restructured its capital and improved its financial health, with a significant reduction in debt-to-asset ratio from approximately 78% in 2021 to about 65% in 2023, and projected to further decrease to around 60% in 2024 [4][6][24] - The company has established a strong synergy between its green energy and data center businesses, aiming to create a digital economy ecosystem that integrates AI computing power, data assets, and application scenarios [7][15][23] Summary by Sections 1. Transition to Industrial Investment Holding Group - The company has shifted its focus from short-term financial investments to long-term industrial investments, particularly in new energy and technology sectors, which are expected to drive future growth [4][12] - The company has increased its stake in Shandong High-speed New Energy to 60.66%, enhancing its control and position in the renewable energy market [12][15] 2. New Energy Sector - The company has received significant funding, including approximately HKD 47 billion from its own group and additional support from national clean energy subsidies, which has improved the capital structure of its subsidiary, Shandong High-speed New Energy [4][12] - The company is actively involved in various renewable energy projects, including wind and solar initiatives, with a total capacity exceeding 1GW planned for the next two years [4][5] 3. New Infrastructure and Data Center Development - The company has strategically invested in Century Internet, a leading digital infrastructure provider, to enhance its capabilities in the data center sector [4][12] - A significant project in Ulanqab City aims to integrate green power with intelligent computing, with a total investment of approximately CNY 21 billion [5][12] 4. Financial Performance and Projections - The company has shown a strong revenue growth trajectory, with projected revenues of CNY 58.84 billion, CNY 67.85 billion, and CNY 74.99 billion for 2025 to 2027, respectively [7][27] - The net profit is expected to grow significantly, with projections of CNY 1.38 billion, CNY 2.24 billion, and CNY 3.47 billion for the same period, reflecting a robust growth rate [7][27]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company [7] Core Views - The company is transitioning from a financial investment strategy to an industrial investment holding group, focusing on new energy and new technology sectors, aligning with national policy directions and market trends [4][12][15] - The company has successfully restructured its capital and improved its financial health, with a significant reduction in debt-to-asset ratio from approximately 78% in 2021 to about 65% in 2023, and further projected to decrease to around 60% in 2024 [4][6][24] - The company has established a strong synergy between its green energy and data center businesses, enhancing operational efficiency and reducing costs [7][15] Summary by Sections 1. Transition to Industrial Investment Holding Group - The company has shifted its focus from short-term financial investments to long-term industrial investments, particularly in new energy and technology sectors, which are expected to drive future growth [4][12] - The company has increased its stake in Shandong High-speed New Energy to 60.66% by 2025, reinforcing its control and commitment to the renewable energy market [12][23] 2. New Energy Sector - The company has received significant funding, including approximately HKD 47 billion from its parent group and additional government subsidies, which have improved the capital structure of its subsidiary, Shandong High-speed New Energy [4][5] - The company is actively involved in various renewable energy projects, including wind and solar initiatives, with a total capacity exceeding 1GW planned for the next two years [4][5] 3. New Infrastructure and Data Center Development - The company has strategically invested in Century Internet, a leading digital infrastructure provider, to enhance its capabilities in the data center sector [4][7] - A significant project in collaboration with Ulanqab City aims to integrate green energy and data computing, with a total investment of approximately CNY 21 billion [5][7] 4. Financial Performance and Forecast - The company has shown a robust growth trajectory, with projected revenues of CNY 58.84 billion in 2025, and net profits expected to reach CNY 1.38 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 155% [7][27] - The company’s net profit margin has improved significantly, with a forecasted net profit of CNY 3.47 billion by 2027, indicating strong operational efficiency [7][32]

Core Insights - Gansu Province aims to become a significant national hub for renewable energy and equipment manufacturing, with ambitious targets for installed capacity and production value by 2030 [1][2]. Group 1: Renewable Energy Capacity - As of April 2023, Gansu's installed renewable energy capacity reached 67.2 million kilowatts, accounting for 64.7% of the total installed capacity, ranking second in the country [1]. - By 2024, Gansu plans to generate 80.6 billion kilowatt-hours of renewable energy, which will represent 35.4% of the total power generation, also ranking second nationally [1]. - The province aims to increase its installed renewable energy capacity to 80 million kilowatts by the end of 2025 and to 160 million kilowatts by the end of 2030 [1]. Group 2: Economic Impact and Production Goals - The action plan targets a production value exceeding 100 billion yuan for renewable energy and equipment manufacturing by 2025, and over 200 billion yuan by 2030 [1]. - Gansu has significant wind and solar resources, with a potential wind energy capacity of 56 million kilowatts (fourth in the country) and solar energy capacity of 95 million kilowatts (fifth in the country) [1]. Group 3: Infrastructure and Market Development - Gansu is a key hub for the Northwest power grid and has four high-voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission lines, ranking second in the country for construction scale [3]. - The province plans to enhance its power transmission capacity, aiming for an annual power transmission of 32 million kilowatts and over 140 billion kilowatt-hours by the mid-point of the 14th Five-Year Plan [3]. - By 2030, Gansu aims to have six operational HVDC transmission lines with a total transmission capacity of 48 million kilowatts [3]. Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - Gansu will focus on improving energy consumption levels, developing zero-carbon parks, and integrating renewable energy projects [2]. - The province plans to cultivate a green hydrogen industry and expand international markets for green investments and technology exports [2].

Group 1: Electric Vehicle Sales - Major automakers reported May sales for new energy vehicles, with BYD selling 382,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 15.28% [1][3] - Zeekr sold 46,500 units, up 15.2% year-on-year, while Leap Motor's sales reached 46,100 units, showing a significant increase of over 148% [1][3] - Xpeng sold 33,500 units, marking a 230% year-on-year growth, and Li Auto sold 40,900 units, up 16.7% year-on-year [1][3] - NIO's sales were 23,200 units, reflecting a 13.1% increase, and Xiaomi's automotive sales exceeded 28,000 units [1][3] Group 2: Solar and Wind Energy - China's photovoltaic installed capacity saw rapid growth in Q1, with optimistic demand forecasts for the U.S. and emerging economies [2] - The central economic work conference emphasized the need for supply-side reforms in the photovoltaic sector, focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements [2] - Wind energy projects are expected to progress steadily, with demand anticipated to improve by 2025, benefiting both domestic and overseas markets [2] Group 3: Hydrogen Energy and Industry Developments - The hydrogen energy sector is being driven by policies promoting industrialization, with applications in green hydrogen and chemical sectors expected to expand [2] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation announced its initiative to invest in the hydrogen energy industry chain [3][4] - A new fund has been established with an initial scale of 5 billion yuan, targeting the entire hydrogen energy value chain [4] Group 4: Company Updates - Maiwei Co. plans to issue convertible bonds to raise 1.966 billion yuan for the industrialization of perovskite solar cell equipment [4] - JA Solar's application for H-share listing has been accepted by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [4] - Longi Green Energy's CEO has stepped down from his position to focus on R&D and technology management [4]

华源证券近日发布大能源行业2025年第22周周报（20250602）：绿电直供业务已明确直 供线路由非电网企业建设，近期国家以及各地相关政策频出，更大概念上的源网荷储一体化 项目进展有望加快，从而使得用户侧商业模式更加丰富，电力交易、虚拟电厂、微电网等方 向值得关注。此外，类似业务模式主要还是为了提高绿电底层需求，有利于新能源设备行业 长期稳定发展，海上风电作为沿海重要的新能源资源发展有望提速。 以下为研究报告摘要： 投资要点： 事件：国家发改委、能源局发布《关于有序推动绿电直连发展有关事项的通知》（以下 简称《通知》）。 绿电直连有助于绿电经济性和环境价值体现。本次政策针对对单一用户的绿电供给模 式，带来2个明显的好处：（1）可以有效降低企业的用电成本；（2）对于企业碳排放认定 有很大帮助（特别是出口型企业）。我国东南沿海出口型企业密集，绿电是该地区重要的新 能源资源，随着直供模式推广有望带动海上风电产业快速发展。 明确绿电直供在现货连续运行区域可反送电网，提高绿电直供模式经济性。以往源网荷 储一体化项目为了降低公共电网调峰压力，通常对自用电比例都有较高要求且不允许反送电 网。《通知》在要求自用电比例不低于 ...

问：《通知》的主要内容有哪些？ 答： 通知共分为五部分。 第一部分 为适用范围与基本原则，明确绿电直连项目的定义、分类、特 征及原则。 第二部分 为加强规划引导，明确项目建设、规划统筹、模式创新、源荷匹配等方面要 求。 第三部分 为加强运行管理，从项目自身管理、电网接入要求、调度运行管理、安全责任界面 和系统友好性等方面，对绿电直连项目和电网企业提出具体要求。 第四部分 为交易与价格机制， 鼓励项目作为整体参与电力市场，按规定缴纳相关费用，并明确计量结算要求。 第五部分 为组织 保障， 明确国家发展改革委、国家能源局、地方能源主管部门、国家能源局派出机构、电网企业和 电力市场运营机构等工作要求。 问：《通知》对投资建设绿电直连项目作出哪些规定？ 答： 一是支持各类经营主体投资建设绿电直连项目 。 《通知》明确支持包括民营企业在内的各类 经营主体（不含电网企业）投资绿电直连项目， 省级能源主管部门应配合做好相关工作，支持民营 资本等参与 。 二是充分调动投资主体积极性。 《通知》提出项目电源可由用户投资，也可由新能 源发电企业或双方成立的合资公司投资；直连专线原则上应由用户、电源主体投资。 三是维护各类 投资主 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is a global leader in the aluminum industry, focusing on a full industrial chain from power generation to aluminum processing, with a strong emphasis on shareholder returns and sustainable growth [1][2]. Group 1: Company Overview - Established in 1994, the company operates 13 production bases in Indonesia and China, with significant capacities in bauxite, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum processing [1]. - The company has a concentrated ownership structure, with the Zhang family holding 65.53% of the equity, and has distributed a total cash dividend of 52.49 billion yuan since its listing in 2011, with an average dividend payout ratio of 44.3% [1]. Group 2: Competitive Advantages - The company has a leading position in electrolytic aluminum production, with an average cost of 13,232 yuan per ton in 2024, benefiting from self-supplied bauxite and alumina [1]. - The energy structure is expected to improve with falling coal prices and the completion of renewable energy projects, aiming for a significant increase in green electricity usage [1]. - The company has secured high-quality bauxite and alumina resources, ensuring stable production costs, with a self-sufficiency rate of over 160% for alumina [1]. Group 3: Future Growth and Projects - The company is expanding into high-end low-carbon development with plans for aluminum processing capacity to reach 1.52 million tons, alongside projects in automotive lightweight materials [1]. - The company is involved in the West Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, expected to start production in 2025, which will contribute significantly to future earnings [2]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 20.77 billion yuan, 22.38 billion yuan, and 23.45 billion yuan, with a target price of 17.0 HKD based on a 7x PE ratio [2].