中化新网讯 埃克森美孚于12月9日更新其长期战略规划，大幅上调了2030年的盈利与现金流预期。 埃克森美孚表示，增长核心来自上游优势资产，预计到2030年总产量将达550万桶油当量/日，其中约 65%为低成本资源。在能源转型领域，该公司注重碳捕集与封存业务，计划在2025至2030年间投入约 200亿美元用于低碳项目，助力客户脱碳。 该公司表示，在保持资本支出不变的前提下，得益于优势资产、强化后的产品组合及成本控制，预计到 2030年将比2024年累计增加250亿美元的盈利和350亿美元的现金流，均较此前目标上调50亿美元。以每 桶65美元的布伦特油价计算，该公司预计至2030年将累计产生约1450亿美元的现金流。 ...

湖北秭归：航运能源转型 守护长江生态 湖北秭归：航运能源转型 守护长江生态【2】 湖北秭归：航运能源转型 守护长江生态【3】 湖北秭归：航运能源转型 守护长江生态【4】 湖北秭归：航运能源转型 守护长江生态【5】 湖北秭归：航运能源转型 守护长江生态【6】 ...

在煤化工企业基层工作几十年，亲眼见证了行业从规模扩张到提质增效的深刻转型。当"内卷"从网络热 词成为行业现实，其本质不再是健康竞争，而逐渐演变为在同质化、低附加值的"红海"中重复投入、消 耗资源。破解这一困局，不仅关乎企业生存，更关系到行业能否在能源转型与"双碳"目标下赢得未来。 我认为，破局之路在于实现三个根本性转向。 二是从"规模与成本"竞争转向"差异与特色"创新：重塑竞争优势。行业的"内卷"很大程度上源于发展模 式的趋同：比拼产能规模、追求吨耗最低，最终在有限的市场中进行惨烈的价格竞争。要走出这种消耗 战，必须摒弃"大而全"的单一思维，转向依托自身资源与技术禀赋，打造"小而美""特而强"的差异化优 势。这些产品虽未必有巨大的市场规模，却能凭借其独特的性能或更高的纯度，成为细分市场中难以替 代的"单项冠军"，从而构筑起基于技术壁垒的核心竞争力。 三是从"重硬件投入"转向"重人力资本"激活：释放核心潜能。面对竞争压力，企业常倾向于持续投资更 先进的硬件设备。然而，当管理重心过度偏向硬件，而忽视了对"人力资本"的深度激活时，就容易陷 入"有设备无智慧"的内耗状态。打破这一局面的突破口，在于真正将一线员工作为最 ...

受供应中断以及市场对美国关税政策的担忧引发的需求激增推动，铜价今年大幅飙升，多次创下历史新 高。这轮涨势预计将持续到2026年。 持续的矿山生产中断削弱了未来供应增长的预期，也为铜价上涨提供了支撑。德意志银行在上周三发布 的一份报告中称2025年是"严重受干扰的一年"，生产受挫迫使几家主要矿商下调产量预估。德意志银行 汇编的数据显示，过去一周，几家主要铜生产商更新了产量指引，将2026年铜产量预估下调了约30万 吨。 花旗集团分析师预计，在能源转型和人工智能领域引领的强劲需求支撑下，这种红色金属的价格将大幅 上涨。电气化、电网扩张和数据中心建设需要大量铜用于布线、电力传输和冷却基础设施。 "总体而言，我们认为市场将明显处于短缺状态，其中矿山供应在2025年第四季度和2026年第一季度最 为疲弱，"该行表示，并预计价格和市场紧张状况将在2026年上半年达到顶峰。 花旗集团指出，矿山供应受限导致的预计短缺，以及美国因套利机会继续"囤积"铜库存，预计都将助推 价格上涨："我们预计美国将继续囤积全球铜库存，并且在牛市情景下，将进一步抽走美国以外本已枯 竭的库存。"该行预计，铜价将在2026年初达到每吨13000美元， ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Companies and Industries Involved - **Jereh Group** (杰瑞股份) - **Haimai Technology** (豪迈科技) - **Boinhan Company** (博盈特焊) - **HRSG Industry** (Heat Recovery Steam Generators) Key Points and Arguments Jereh Group - Jereh Group expects to achieve approximately **1.5 billion RMB** in sales revenue from over **200 million USD** gas generator orders by the end of **2025 to 2026**, with a net profit increase of **300-400 million RMB** [1][5] - The company anticipates **70 million USD** in rental income for **2025**, corresponding to a profit of **200 million RMB** [1][5] - Jereh has over **800 MW** of gas turbine resources and plans to expand its capabilities in collaboration with **Baker Hughes** and **Siemens**, aiming for **6-7 billion RMB** in revenue from the power generation segment within five years [1][3][4] - The company has secured two significant orders in North America, totaling over **200 million USD**, with deliveries expected between **2025 and 2026** [2][5] - Jereh's core competitive advantages include strong design capabilities, resource reserves, and channel advantages in North America and the Middle East [6] Haimai Technology - Haimai Technology's stock has reached new highs, benefiting from the gas turbine supply chain, with a projected revenue growth of over **20%** in **2025** [3][12] - The company has a global market share of over **30%** in tire molds and maintains stable cash flow through partnerships with brands like **Bridgestone** and **Michelin** [3][12] - Haimai's large component business has expanded into gas turbines and wind power-related castings, with a strong order backlog for **2025 and 2026** [12][13] - The company is also experiencing growth in CNC machine tools, with expectations of revenue reaching **2.5 to 3 billion RMB** in **2025**, reflecting a **24%** and **20%** year-on-year increase [3][19] Boinhan Company - Boinhan's stock has doubled in less than two months, driven by the high demand in the gas turbine sector [9] - The company is expected to release order announcements that will validate its order-taking capabilities, further boosting its stock price [9][11] - Boinhan's main business is steadily rising, with net profit margins in overseas markets nearing or exceeding **20%** [11] HRSG Industry - The HRSG sector is expanding to meet customer demand, with expectations of price increases in the coming quarters due to sustained demand [10] - The industry is experiencing a significant potential for mid-sized gas turbine matching, which has not yet been fully realized [10] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - Jereh's overall performance is projected to reach around **3 billion RMB** in **2025**, with potential to exceed **4 billion RMB** if more orders are secured [7][8] - Haimai's CNC machine tool business is expected to grow significantly, with a focus on high-end five-axis machine tools, which have a market size of approximately **12 billion RMB** [17][18] - The manufacturing industry is anticipated to enter a new upcycle in **2026**, driven by equipment replacement needs and supportive policies [18]

电解铝 ：年底资金流动扩大价格波动 短期谨慎追涨 研究员：陈婧 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 铝策略展望 GALAXY FUTURES 1 宏观：（1）本周美联储议息会议如期宣布降息25基点，表态相对温和，且将买短债400亿美元，提振市场情绪。（2）12月关注国内重要会议对明年经济情况 的预期。 产业供应：近期无超预期变动，供给端刚性预期明显。全球海外方面，世纪铝业旗下冰岛电解铝厂维持事故停产状态，预计2026年年底复产；力勤印尼电解铝 项目开始投产，预计年底前投产8万余吨，明年10月满产50万吨；安哥拉及越南项目投产预期不变，印尼泰景项目一期基本达产。国内方面，新疆新投净增24 万吨的项目11月底开始投产，初步投产6万吨、年底前累计投产12万吨，剩余部分预计明年二季度继续投产。内蒙新投项目维持年底投产预期不变。 产业需求：铝棒相关需求韧性明显，加工费坚挺，交通运输、建筑地产等板块年底赶工对铝需求拉动显著，铝杆及铝箔需求亦有恢复，且前期出口利润增加后出 口订单较好，铝需求整体维持同比增加趋势。此外，目前市场对明后年储能快速增加带动的用铝需求存有期待。 库存：本周铝锭及铝 ...

Group 1: Price Trends in Lithium Iron Phosphate Industry - The lithium iron phosphate industry is experiencing a significant price increase, with leading manufacturers issuing clear price hike notifications to customers [1] - A major manufacturer has announced that starting in 2026, processing fees for all lithium iron phosphate products will be uniformly raised [1] - Industry insiders indicate that price increases have already been implemented for some customers, and negotiations are ongoing with others, suggesting that price hikes are becoming a prevailing trend [1] Group 2: Battery Production and Demand - In November, domestic power battery installation reached 93.5 GWh, marking a month-on-month increase of 11.2% and a year-on-year increase of 39.2% [2] - Lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 75.3 GWh of the total, representing 80.5% of the total installation, with a month-on-month increase of 11.6% and a year-on-year increase of 40.7% [2] - Cumulative power battery installations from January to November reached 671.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 42.0%, with lithium iron phosphate batteries making up 81.2% of this total [2] Group 3: Future Demand Projections - Global lithium demand is expected to reach 2 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent by 2026, achieving a near balance between supply and demand [3] - Predictions indicate a 30% increase in lithium demand by 2026, potentially reaching 1.9 million tons, while supply capacity is expected to grow by approximately 250,000 tons [3] - If demand growth exceeds 30%, prices may rise significantly, potentially surpassing 150,000 yuan/ton or even 200,000 yuan/ton in the short term [3] Group 4: Investment Opportunities in Lithium Industry - Citic Construction Investment emphasizes the importance of resource self-sufficiency and low-cost quality resources for companies to navigate market cycles effectively [4] - The report highlights that companies with high resource self-sufficiency can ensure stable raw material supply and high margins, reducing risks associated with low-margin processing [4] - The lithium industry's supply-demand dynamics are improving, with expectations for better performance in equity markets as the sector approaches its bottom [4] Group 5: Company Developments in Lithium Sector - Tianqi Lithium (002466) is expanding its metal lithium production capacity, with 600 tons currently and an additional 1,000 tons under construction, ranking second globally [5] - Ganfeng Lithium (002460) has achieved large-scale production of energy storage cells and established stable supply partnerships with leading companies, ensuring delivery amid rising storage demand [5] - CATL (300750) is a leader in solid-state battery technology, with significant advancements in energy density and production capabilities, contributing substantial revenue in the upcoming year [6]

——《关于优化集中式新能源发电企业市场报价的通知（试行）》解读 以制度革新护航能源转型 龙源电力集团股份有限公司市场营销部副主任 张念武 国家能源集团江苏公司运营中心主任 高丛珊 在新能源装机规模持续扩容、电力市场改革向纵深推进的关键节点，国家能源局印发的《关于优化集中式新能源发电企业市场报价的通 知（试行）》，以精准的制度设计破解市场难题，以系统的治理思维筑牢发展根基，既回应了新能源全面入市的现实挑战，更彰显了推 动能源高质量发展的战略远见，其制度价值与战略高度在能源转型进程中具有里程碑意义。 一、守序立规：构筑公平竞争的市场 "防护网"，彰显制度保障高度 电力市场的高效运行，离不开公平有序的竞争环境作为基石。随着新能源逐步从政策扶持转向市场主导，市场经营主体增多、交易行为 复杂等新问题随之显现，部分地区已出现串通报价、价格操纵等扰乱市场秩序的现象，既扭曲了价格信号，又损害了市场公平性。《通 知》立足这一现实，以法治思维构建市场秩序防控体系，展现了对市场规律的深刻把握与精准施策能力。 在反垄断规制上，政策实现了事前防范 与源头管控的双重突破。针对跨主体协同报价可能形成的垄断风险，明确划定集中报价的边界红 线 ...

在"期货大家谈——2025期货业盘点"系列访谈第三期节目中，首创期货总经理助理孙伏鲲以"趋势、反 转与波动"三大维度为纲，系统性复盘2025年期货市场十大经典案例，深度拆解热门品种每一轮涨跌背 后的宏观推手、产业矛盾与资金博弈，为交易者勾勒出一幅清晰的市场认知地图。 以多晶硅为代表的新能源金属品种，上演了从"熊"到"雄"的逆转。在基本面供大于求、库存高企的背景 下，多晶硅行情反转主要源于"反内卷"政策驱动。后续需关注仓单注册进度，新仓单周度增量若大幅增 长，将缓解交割品紧张预期；相反，若仓单注册量低于预期，多空博弈可能加剧。中期来看，"反内 卷"政策若能明确产能上限或设立价格协调机制，多晶硅价格有望进一步上涨。 工业硅与碳酸锂同样受"反内卷"政策预期影响。工业硅当前估值较低，但产能过剩严重，消费端没有明 显驱动。碳酸锂则需关注供给弹性、需求预期以及行业成本情况。 "趋势之王"：宏观叙事与产业瓶颈共振 孙伏鲲表示，2025年的"趋势之王"是那些在宏观大势与产业深层矛盾共同作用下，走出持续性单边行情 的品种。 黄金价格在2025年超预期上涨。孙伏鲲认为，其上涨逻辑较为坚实：地缘冲突频发推升避险需求；美联 储降息改 ...

孙伏鲲表示，2025年的"趋势之王"是那些在宏观大势与产业深层矛盾共同作用下，走出持续性单边行情的品种。 黄金价格在2025年超预期上涨。孙伏鲲认为，其上涨逻辑较为坚实：地缘冲突频发推升避险需求；美联储降息改变了利率环境；全球央行持续的购金行 为，反映了"去美元化"背景下的资产配置需求；国际稳定币机构购入黄金作为储备资产，形成了新兴的边际需求。这些因素共同构筑了黄金作为"无可替 代"资产的地位。展望未来，黄金长期上行趋势未改。 在"期货大家谈——2025期货业盘点"系列访谈第三期节目中，首创期货总经理助理孙伏鲲以"趋势、反转与波动"三大维度为纲，系统性复盘2025年期货市 场十大经典案例，深度拆解热门品种每一轮涨跌背后的宏观推手、产业矛盾与资金博弈，为交易者勾勒出一幅清晰的市场认知地图。 "趋势之王"：宏观叙事与产业瓶颈共振 "波动之王"：地缘政治驱动的"脉冲"行情 "波动之王"的称号非原油莫属。 孙伏鲲分析称，2025年原油价格宽幅震荡，三大因素主导价格走势：美联储货币政策、美国的能源与贸易政策以及地缘冲突。这些因素与偏弱的基本面相 互交织，共同导致油价剧烈波动。展望未来，油市供应过剩格局难以出现根本性变化 ...