Group 1 - The 30-year US Treasury yield has surpassed the critical 5% mark, causing significant turmoil in global capital markets [1] - The current economic situation in the US is seen as a culmination of three decades of fiscal mismanagement, leading to a clash between inflation control and growth maintenance [3] - The US's urgent call for a second round of talks following the market crash indicates a desperate attempt to stabilize the situation [4] Group 2 - China's new negotiation conditions, including the lifting of technology sanctions and promoting cross-border RMB settlements, aim to strategically undermine the US dollar system [7] - The reduction of US Treasury holdings by China over the past six months, alongside an increase in gold reserves and local currency settlements, suggests a shift towards a new payment network that bypasses the dollar [9] - Global capital movements, such as Japan's secret bond purchases and Saudi Arabia's avoidance of US Treasuries, reflect a collective anticipation of a post-dollar era [9] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma: raising interest rates to protect the dollar risks crushing corporate debt, while lowering rates to alleviate debt burdens could destabilize the currency [11] - The potential collapse of US Treasuries by 2025 may mark a critical point in the restructuring of the international monetary system, with significant implications for global trade and technology [13] - The current situation highlights the fragility of so-called "safe assets," suggesting that traditional wisdom of holding cash and hard currencies may be more prudent in times of systemic risk [13]

Core Viewpoint - The current most significant event affecting international trade and investment is the tariff issue, particularly the tariff policies introduced by the Trump administration, which have shocked the world [2] Group 1: International Trade and Investment Dynamics - The competitiveness of the U.S. in general processing and labor-intensive manufacturing is not strong enough, making it difficult for manufacturing to return to the U.S. as desired by the Trump administration [2] - Due to policy uncertainties, manufacturing companies are more inclined to seek locations with lower costs and tariffs, which are often found in global South countries and emerging markets [2] - The current situation indicates three "rebalancing" trends in the international trade and investment system: cost-effectiveness rebalancing, global trade rebalancing leading to profound adjustments in major economies' internal structures, and currency rebalancing towards a more diverse and inclusive global monetary system [2] Group 2: Changes in the International Monetary System - The dominance of the U.S. dollar faces challenges, including the weaponization of currency and the "Triffin dilemma," which necessitates changes in the international monetary system [3] - Changes in the international monetary system may advance in three directions: the inclusion of more currencies in the international monetary system, increased focus on cryptocurrencies for cross-border trade and investment, and potential enhancement of the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) functionality [3]

Group 1 - The status of US Treasury bonds as the safest global asset and the dollar as the world's reserve currency is being challenged, with many countries initiating a de-dollarization process [1] - The current international order is facing challenges, particularly from the US regarding tariffs, and there is a need for a multilateral system [1] - The global trade system is no longer dominated by a single power, making diversification increasingly important [1] Group 2 - The credit of the dollar is facing systemic weakening due to rising US debt and fiscal deficit pressures, leading many central banks to reconsider their dollar asset allocations [2] - Despite the dollar's current status as a safe haven asset, geopolitical uncertainties are prompting a shift towards increasing gold reserves among central banks, including those in emerging markets [2] - The transition from the old international financial order to a new one may take decades, with emerging economies like China gaining more weight in the global financial system [2] Group 3 - A more diversified international monetary system is gradually forming, with the internationalization of currencies like the yuan and euro potentially providing a realistic alternative to the existing system [3] - Institutions like the IMF and World Bank may play a more significant role in the future international monetary system, with the possibility of developing new international currencies such as SDRs [3] - The global financial system may require alternative safe assets, and the inclusion of more currencies in SDR could support this diversification [3] Group 4 - The euro and yuan may gain more liquidity as their status improves, but Europe needs to unite for reforms to make the euro a more attractive international currency [4] - A fiscal union in Europe is necessary for euro-denominated bonds to attract significant foreign exchange reserves [4] - The yuan, while not fully convertible, has potential to become a global reserve currency, with recent steps taken to increase its use as a settlement currency [4][5]

Group 1 - The 2025 Tsinghua Wudaokou Global Financial Forum opened in Shenzhen, focusing on themes such as global economic fragmentation, monetary system reconstruction, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area strategy, and the AI revolution [1] - Keynote speakers included Nobel laureate Michael Spence and former Polish Prime Minister Marek Belka, addressing structural contradictions and policy dilemmas in the current global economy [3] - Tsinghua University emphasized its role in providing a "certainty anchor" for global economic development through high-quality growth and financial technology breakthroughs [3] Group 2 - Michael Spence highlighted the ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting the global trade system, suggesting that a multilateral system is still possible despite current challenges [3] - Marek Belka pointed out the imbalances and instabilities in the global economy, particularly in the U.S., attributing chronic trade deficits to domestic economic issues [4] - Experts at the forum noted a trend towards a diversified international monetary system, although the dominance of the U.S. dollar is unlikely to change in the short term [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the future international monetary system will become more diverse and inclusive, influenced by current trade and investment dynamics, particularly tariff issues [3][4][6] - The first key point is the rebalancing of cost-effectiveness in trade and investment, with emerging markets in the "Global South" becoming more attractive due to lower costs and tariffs [3][4] - The second key point highlights that global trade rebalancing will lead to profound adjustments in the internal economic structures of major economies, with historical evidence suggesting that internal economic balance is crucial for resolving trade imbalances [4][5] Group 2 - The third key point discusses how monetary rebalancing will guide the world monetary system towards greater diversity and inclusiveness, addressing issues like the dominance of the US dollar and the "Triffin dilemma" [4][5] - More currencies are expected to join the international monetary system, with increased use of emerging market currencies for trade and investment [5] - There will be a greater emphasis on digital currencies, particularly for cross-border trade and investment, and a potential enhancement of the Special Drawing Rights (SDR) function by the International Monetary Fund [5][6] Group 3 - China's cross-border investment has seen rapid growth, with private enterprises being the main force behind foreign investments, demonstrating resilience and adaptability in changing global conditions [7][8] - From 2014 to 2024, China's direct investment stock is projected to exceed $3 trillion, significantly higher than the previous two decades combined [8] - Chinese enterprises are increasingly engaging in global supply chain construction and are transitioning from labor-intensive industries to advanced technology sectors, aiming to become global multinational corporations [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The global monetary system is at a critical juncture, transitioning from a "dollar-dominated" structure to a "multipolar coexistence" model, with the evolution of currencies like the Renminbi becoming a focal point for observing emerging market countries' pathways [1][3]. Group 1: Current Monetary Landscape - The current global monetary system is still centered around the US dollar, which faces historic challenges due to unilateral policies from the US, particularly under the Trump administration, impacting the dollar's credibility as a global trade and reserve currency [3][4]. - The dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased to 60%, down from a peak of 73%, indicating a weakening position as emerging market central banks diversify their reserves, including increasing gold holdings [3][4]. Group 2: Future Currency Competitors - Potential competitors to the dollar include the Euro and the Renminbi, with the Euro needing to establish a fiscal union and enhance financial integration to strengthen its position [4][5]. - The Renminbi, while not fully convertible, has the potential to become a global reserve currency, supported by initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, which expand its cross-border usage [4][5]. Group 3: Proposed Solutions for Monetary Reform - Industry experts suggest creating a "willing alliance" for a multilateral mechanism, leveraging regional institutions like the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank to foster non-US-led cooperation [5][6]. - A gradual reform of the monetary system is proposed, including expanding the International Monetary Fund's Special Drawing Rights (SDR) basket to alleviate the pressure of dollar dominance and increase the Renminbi's weight [7][8]. Group 4: Digital Currency Innovations - The future of the global monetary system may hinge on technological innovations such as digital currencies and inclusive institutional frameworks, with discussions on how the US, Europe, and China are approaching digital currency development [8].

2 0 2 5清华五道口全球金融论坛 论坛议程 I TTJ =V · 09:30-10:30 主演讲 · 10:45-12:00 主题讨论一:面向未来的全球货币体系 0 05月17日(周六)下午 平行论坛 · 14:00-15:15 主题讨论二:新形势下的国际贸易与投资 · 15:30-16:45 主题讨论三:全球经济碎片化的挑战 · 16:45-18:00 主题讨论四:粤港澳大湾区建设与发展 · 14:00-15:15 主题讨论五:绿色发展的机遇与挑战 · 15:30-16:45 主题讨论方:新兴市场债务危机与金融治理 · 16:45-17:45 IMF专题报告:全球金融稳定 005月18日（周日）上午 平行论坛 · 09:00-10:15 主题讨论七:2025中国经济展望暨 《中国金融政策报告2025》发布 10:30-11:45 . 主题讨论八: 金融赋能科技创新与发展 · 09:00-10:15 主题讨论九:人工智能时代下的数字金融 · 10:30-11:45 主题讨论十:全球资本市场展望与发展 · UY:UU-11:UU 闭门会一:加强金融安全 防范系统性金融风险 005月18日(周日)下午 平行论 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transformation of gold from a commodity to a quasi-currency, driven by global economic shifts and increasing demand for gold as a strategic reserve amid a changing financial landscape [1][5][13]. Group 1: Historical Context of Gold - The history of gold is marked by significant events that reflect crises in the credit system, such as the decoupling of the dollar from gold in 1971, which initiated the first major bull market for gold [3][5]. - The second bull market for gold began after the 9/11 attacks, as global financial instability led to a significant increase in gold prices, demonstrating its role as a "crisis barometer" [4][5]. Group 2: Current Economic Landscape - The current economic environment is characterized by a long-term decline in the Kondratiev wave, with rising sovereign debt levels in countries like Japan and Italy, and the U.S. facing unprecedented debt monetization challenges [6][7]. - The shift in global power dynamics, with China and the U.S. holding significant shares of global GDP, is contributing to the erosion of the dollar's dominance as a single global currency [6][7]. Group 3: Demand for Gold - In 2023, emerging market central banks accounted for 82% of global gold purchases, a significant increase from 2018, indicating a growing demand for gold as part of a "de-dollarization" strategy [7][9]. - Predictions suggest that gold prices could exceed $4,000 per ounce by 2028, driven by ongoing geopolitical tensions and high debt levels [7][9]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to adopt a contrarian approach, recognizing that market downturns can present buying opportunities, as evidenced by historical data showing an average 18% increase in gold prices within six months after significant dips [9][11]. - Following central bank strategies, particularly China's continuous gold accumulation over 21 months, is recommended for investors to effectively build their positions in gold [9][11]. Group 5: Future Considerations - The potential end of the current gold bull market may hinge on three transformative events: a U.S. energy revolution, breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, or a restructured global governance system leading to a new super-sovereign currency [13][15]. - Legislative changes, such as Texas's recent law recognizing gold and silver as legal tender, reflect a growing distrust in the dollar and signify a potential shift in monetary policy [13][15].

文 | Ray Dalio 来源 | 地平线全球策略 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 美中第一阶段协议迅速达成，过程合理，也让人对后续谈判抱有一定乐观预期。 此时，特朗普及其团队正前往中东展开访问，推动一系列投资交易——我相信他们会取得进 展，同时这也可能带来其他更具建设性的贸易协议。 不久之后，他们将试图与国会就预算达成协议，尽管我对这一点的成功并不太有信心。与此同 时，伊朗协议和俄乌问题上也在酝酿一些可能的突破，我判断后续将会有所进展。 在我看来，这个世界正在被两类问题驱动： 一类是每天占据媒体头条、吸引注意力并引发市场短期波动的事件；另一类则是背后真正驱动全球 秩序变革的深层力量 。 虽然两者都应关注，但决定未来走向的，是那些结构性的大趋势。因此，不应因短期事件而忽视这 些决定性力量，特别是在投资判断中，这一视角尤为重要。 回到根本，目前正在推动全球格局演变的五大力量包括： 1）债务与货币体系：影响市场和经济的核心变量，决定未来的货币秩序； 2）国内贫富与价值观分裂：这是重塑政治格局的核心力量； 3）国际秩序/无序化进程：决定世界秩序的演变路径； 4）自然力量：包括干旱、水灾、疫情等； 5）人类 ...

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